SARS cases pass 6,000; more than 400 dead

upi ^ | 05/02/2003 | Michael Smith

[aristeides]

I was alarmed myself back in the early weeks of the outbreak that the growth rate seemed geometric, but since then the spread seems to have more or less come under control in places outside of China, with the numbers of cases increasing only arithmetically or even declining. Now the China figures are more and more outweighing the figures from other places, and, as long as the disease is out of control there, the worldwide figures will more and more resemble geometric growth.

[aristeides]

New Laurie Garrett piece for today: China Keeps a Brave Face: Despite Bejing’s SARS crisis, leaders insist outbreak at its peak .

[harpseal]

In most places outside China the low number of cases would mask any real differences between arithmetic and exponential growth. The big change becomes visible after a period long enough to show the exponential curve. Good isolation procedures do seem to help slow the growth or even eliminate the disease.

[harpseal]

One other thing is that the Chinese resivoir of infection may well expose the rest of the world to such exponential growth. The just in data from India is such that it is way too early to predict the course of SARS there. Taiwan also has is a place where the jury is still out. Likewise Singapore.

[aristeides]

SARS stopped itself, health expert says:

Evidence suggests that severe acute respiratory syndrome is not very infectious outside of a hospital setting. Isolating the patients and requiring hospital staff to wear masks, gloves and other protective gear made the difference, he said.

[Domestic Church]

Forget the idea of a vaccine for SARS...it would be a miracle for a coronavirus. It won't happen any time soon though the idea is being tossed out to all of us as a panic queller. Absolute Isolation and barrier containment is the only sane way to go until they develope specific drugs to stop it. There will be entire extended families wiped out or only very young kids left from some families( including mine) if this gets into the mainstream population here.

[Domestic Church]

Initally I was leaning towards it being a manmade bug too but it doen't seem to be and it doesn't look tinkered either:

http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/entrez/viewer.fcgi?val=NC_004718

Scroll and read the words in blue if the rest isn't in your ballpark of vocabulary.When you get down to the mat_peptides look at the words above the np #... evidence=not experimental.

[Domestic Church]

It doesn't have to be invented to be used as bioterror...just discovered.

[aristeides]

China agrees to let WHO visit Taiwan over Sars. Ridiculous that the WHO can't visit Taiwan unless Red China gives its permission.

[harpseal]

The case has also been made that the only reason SARS got a foothold in Canada was due to the fact that adequate quarantine measures were not in place soon enough. I really do not know the answers on SARS and am watching what is happening with interest. There is little I can do to stop this disease or even to prevent myself from catching it. I guess we shall see what happens.

[aristeides]

Doctors: SARS can live on in patients:

HONG KONG (AP) -- Doctors have found that the SARS virus can remain in recovered patients for at least a month, and have also urged patients to avoid personal contact such as hugging and kissing when they go home.

[aristeides]

There is little I can do to stop this disease or even to prevent myself from catching it.

Wash your hands.

[Domestic Church]

That's incredulous! How are the Chinese going to stop WHO from going to Taiwan?

[harpseal]

that I already do. I have increased the frequency and quality of hand washing.

[Judith Anne]

In your "SARS stopped itself" link, I found this:

Evidence suggests that severe acute respiratory syndrome is not very infectious outside of a hospital setting. Isolating the patients and requiring hospital staff to wear masks, gloves and other protective gear made the difference, he said.

This has to be one the dumber things in print that I've read lately.

[aristeides]

Why do you say the statement is dumb? Spread does seem to have been quite limited outside hospitals.

[riri]

There will be entire extended families wiped out or only very young kids left from some families( including mine) if this gets into the mainstream population here

I also think there is a huge psychological impact something like this can have on a society. Apart from the death, fear and uncertainty. People would be left with a sense of hopelessness. Long term thinking and planning would be out the window. In the end, I think society would drift backward.

I have to believe a vaccine is possible. There are so many new ideas regarding vaccines. Live vector, DNA vaccines that are targeted to elicit cellular protection. I have to believe it can and will be done.

Ofcourse, the drug companies would rather see drugs made for treatments. Keeping people just enough alive to continue purchasing the drugs.

[Judith Anne]

In other words, I just don't think that SARS has stopped itself...

I wonder how long the health authorities are going to say dumb stuff? They don't think the quarantine of 10,000 worked, they think the virus stopped itself?

Baloney. Thanks for posting this link, we can all use it for an example of the idiocy of some health spokespersons.

[keri]

ping

[Judith Anne]

Okay, I could be wrong...I'll go back and re-read the article. It's entirely possible I'm dumb...I just think that the quarantine and other drastic measures are what stopped SARS in Canada...and I still think they may continue to have cases...