SARS cases pass 6,000; more than 400 dead

upi ^ | 05/02/2003 | Michael Smith

[Judith Anne]

Dr. Shabas, the one who said that SARS stopped itself, is head of one of the hospitals in Canada that was shut down. I think he has an agenda, here, and I think that the draconian measures, the shutdown of the affected hospitals, the isolation of SARS patients, the quarantine of 10,000 exposed and the hospital infection control measures are what stopped the epidemic.

I guess I still disagree with Dr. Shabas, and I still think he's a)dumb or b)has an agenda.

I could be wrong. Maybe, unlike China, SARS stopped itself in Canada.

[FITZ]

"He cautioned that even if the virus changes so that it causes less severe disease, that might not be a good thing--people might not get sick enough to go to the hospital and therefore would spread SARS more easily."

No ---a less virulent strain could provide you with some cross-immunity if you get the full-blown disease of the less virulent strain ---vaccines aren't as effective. Then if it mutates again to more virulent it won't get you because you'd have partial protection while you make specific antibodies. Already 5600 people who had SARS are now immune to it, and less virulent strains appear to be emerging which will give more people immunity.

[FITZ]

There are many diseases spread to hospital patients because they're in a weakened state already ---but also because of the way airflow in many hospitals is designed. They often recycle air over and over ---you're bound to get sick if you're in a hospital. They've already found that TB was being spread in some hospitals because the air goes from one patient's room out into the hallways, exposes the nursing station and other rooms. Even if hospitals use outdoor air, many hospitals are in urban areas and pigeons roost near the vents and windows so whatever is in the bird droppings gets circulated throughout the hospital.

[Judith Anne]

FITZ, that would be true, if those people did indeed have immunity. But the coronavirus family, source of the ubiquitous common cold, has eluded immunity for centuries, so I doubt that they are immune. Already, more strains of SARS are being discovered, likely due to spontaneous mutations.

This may well be a mutation of the common cold, of which there are more than 200 strains.

[FITZ]

If 6000 had SARS and 400 died, then 5600 recovered ---they aren't now dying so they must have immunity. They'll probably never die of a coronavirus --most of us don't. I know they mutate ---but there must be some cross-immunity to related strains. If there are 200 strains, and you've been exposed to even one fourth --you're probably at least partially protected against most ---enough that you won't die before your immune system kicks in which takes a couple weeks.

[Judith Anne]

FITZ, unfortunately, the recovery rate is not 5600. There are a huge percent of those people still in the hospital, many of whom will not recover, but will die. Sorry. And so far, there are a small but increasing number of relapses.

Maybe some of the other posters I pinged can verify this, if you don't want to take my word for it.

[aristeides]

If 6000 had SARS and 400 died, then 5600 recovered

They haven't recovered yet, a lot of them. I don't know the total number of recoveries, but I'm pretty sure it's a lot lower than that. A lot of people are still in hospitals, and I think we can presume a large proportion of those will eventually die.

[Judith Anne]

I think that the number of recoveries listed are about the same as the number of deaths...I'm not sure, though...

[FITZ]

I still think something else is going on. Common colds ---some of which are coronaviruses spread a lot faster ---I can talk to someone in one state one day and they say there's a cold or flu going around and by the next day I find out I've got it too --- Colds and Flus quickly infect millions within weeks --- it seems this SARS is slow moving if anything.

[Judith Anne]

Okay.

[Nov3]

Fitz as you can see less than half have recovered. As a matter of fact 56% haven't.

Country	Cumulative number of case(s)2	Number of new cases since last WHO update2	Number of deaths	Number recovered3	Date last probable case reported	Date for which cumulative number of cases is current
Australia	4	0	0	4	23/Apr/2003	2/May/2003
Brazil	2	0	0	2	10/Apr/2003	24/Apr/2003
Bulgaria	1	0	0	0	24/Apr/2003	28/Apr/2003
Canada	149	2	22	93	1/May/2003	1/May/2003
China	3799	176	181	1372	2/May/2003	2/May/2003
China, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region4	1611	11	170	878	2/May/2003	2/May/2003
China, Macao Special Administrative Region	1	0	0	0	30/Apr/2003	30/Apr/2003
China, Taiwan	100	11	8	25	2/May/2003	2/May/2003
France	5	0	0	4	11/Apr/2003	2/May/2003
Germany	7	0	0	7	22/Apr/2003	2/May/2003
Indonesia	2	0	0	1	23/Apr/2003	30/Apr/2003
Italy	9	0	0	4	29/Apr/2003	2/May/2003
Kuwait	1	0	0	1	9/Apr/2003	20/Apr/2003
Malaysia	6	0	2	3	28/Apr/2003	1/May/2003
Mongolia	8	2	0	4	1/May/2003	1/May/2003
New Zealand	1	1	0	1	30/Apr/2003	2/May/2003
Philippines	3	0	2	1	28/Apr/2003	29/Apr/2003
Poland	1	0	0	0	1/May/2003	1/May/2003
Republic of Ireland	1	0	0	1	21/Mar/2003	24/Apr/2003
Republic of Korea	1	0	0	0	29/Apr/2003	2/May/2003
Romania	1	0	0	1	27/Mar/2003	22/Apr/2003
Singapore	203	2	25	146	2/May/2003	2/May/2003
South Africa	1	0	0	0	9/Apr/2003	9/Apr/2003
Spain	1	0	0	1	2/Apr/2003	24/Apr/2003
Sweden	3	0	0	2	18/Apr/2003	23/Apr/2003
Switzerland	1	0	0	1	17/Mar/2003	1/May/2003
Thailand	7	0	2	5	12/Apr/2003	30/Apr/2003
United Kingdom	6	0	0	6	11/Apr/2003	1/May/2003
United States	56	2	0	24	30/Apr/2003	30/Apr/2003
Viet Nam	63	0	5	56	14/Apr/2003	2/May/2003
Total	6054	207	417	2643

enough that you won't die before your immune system kicks in which takes a couple weeks.

Dude it is your immune system THAT KILLS you!

[aristeides]

Singapore: Most SARS Victims Infected in Hospitals.

[Future Useless Eater]

SARS Mortality Rates [reflects treatment] Based on World Health Organization daily tables                 (Revised: 5/03am)
Area	Recoveries to date	Deaths to date	Recent** Death Rate		Active Cases still in Danger	Projected Future Deaths	Projected Cumulative Mortality
Hong Kong	878	170	17.2%		563	97	16.6%
Singapore	146	25	23.1%		32	7	15.8%
China	1372	181	41.0%		2246	921	29.0%
Canada	93	22	26.9%		34	9	20.8%
elsewhere [26 countries]	154	19	18.8%		119	22	14.0%
World-wide [all 30 countries]	2643	417			2994	1056	24.3%
**  ( Deaths in the last 7 days) / ( Deaths + Recoveries in the last 7 days)

Trend - Active Cases Still in Danger [reflects containment]
Date	Hong Kong	Singapore	China	Canada	elsewhere 26 countries	World-wide all 30 countries
Apr 19	914	61	307	62		1616
Apr 20	893	64	497	65		1694
Apr 21 (est.)	872	66	686	66		1771
Apr 22	874	60	708	61	80	1783
Apr 23	831	58	968	62	86	2005
Apr 24	812	55	1058	58	76	2059
Apr 25	781	50	1209	51	78	2169
Apr 26	774	51	1346	47	86	2304
Apr 27 (est.)	738	45	1415	47	98	2336
Apr 28	709	39	1484	47	108	2387
Apr 29	663	38	1833	40	108	2682
Apr 30	641	38	1969	41	132	2821
May 1	604	33	2117	40	117	2911
May 2	563	32	2246	34	119	2994
(includes new daily cases... excludes cases resolved by death or recovery)

Observations:

• Treatment:
  • The 'elsewhere' 26 countries as a whole, had a VERY bad day
    with 5 new deaths and only 6 new recoveries...
    (a 45% one-day death rate)
  • Almost everyone's (except Hong Kong's) 7-day death rates rose again.
  • These pushed the overall projected Mortality to
    another new record high: 24.3%
• Containment:
  • No major changes. China still has little or no apparent containment.

Here is a COOL " Interactive guide - The spread of Sars"

[Future Useless Eater]

SARS - Treatment/Containment tables - update ping

[aristeides]

Interesting how the number of active cases has dropped substantially in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Canada, risen slightly in the rest of the world, but risen massively in Red China. Using the Chicoms' figures, 75% of the active cases are now in Red China. Since their figures are almost certainly still too low, the true percentage is undoubtedly even higher than that.

[FITZ]

How many people besides those showing symptoms have had a SARS antibody titer performed on their blood? Do we really know that the cases listed are the only ones there have been? What if some people felt a little under the weather, didn't go to the doctor, didn't get treated but got better and it was really SARS?

[aristeides]

Another confirmed SARS patient in Kolkata.

[EternalHope]

The only times most SARS victims have been infected in hospitals is when that is the only place they COULD be infected. In a good isolation/quarantine system, that is the way it is SUPPOSED to work.

The initial worldwide spread was not through hospitals. Most SARS victims in China were NOT infected in hospitals. Most SARS victims even in Hong Kong were not infected in hospitals (although a lot were).

[blam]

Good info, thanks.

[Nebullis]

Is the growth exponential anywhere besides China?

I included all cases world wide.