Pakistan offers to get rid of nukes

MSNBC ^ | 5/5/03

[okie01]

"Promising India that it will have the full protection of the U.S. nuclear umbrella, as do other U.S. allies, in the event of a Chinese nuclear attack would address the concern of such a Chinese attack to a much greater extent than India's own deterrence ever could."

But only so long as George W. Bush, or any Republican, was President.

But where would a de-nuclearized India be if Bill Clinton, or any Democrat, was President?

So long as other nations cannot count on Americans to elect Presidents who keep the country's word, they will be obliged to maintain the means of their own self-defense.

[spetznaz]

Promising India that it will have the full protection of the U.S. nuclear umbrella, as do other U.S. allies, in the event of a Chinese nuclear attack would address the concern of such a Chinese attack to a much greater extent than India's own deterrence ever could.

Actually, as a fellow freeper said, one of the major reasons for India having nukes is China. Pakistan is a (major) additional incentive since it is a volatile nation with a twichy trigger-finger .....but the main baddie in the region is China!

Well, how does this tie up with your post? As follows: India already has a major poli-strategic link with Russia. It is so big it is in effect a symbiotic relationship.

The reason for this is because the biggest danger to Russia is Chinese expansion, currently in terms of population (the Russian population is falling rapidly and large areas of Siberia are being re-populated with Chinese immgrants), but in the future there is the chance of a potential Chinese military attack. In either case the greater military danger to Russia (large scale danger not some Checnyan terror raid) is China .....by far!

Now India also faces danger from China. Major peril! Pakistan has nukes, but it is no match for India (both qualitatively and quantitatively). Pakistan would knock out India's economy for what some estimate to be 2-4 years .....but India would totally decimate Pakistan (pakistan's missiles cannot even hit all of India's industrial centers but India's missiles can strike anywhere in Pakistan they want)! However China is a major danger since it is a regional juggernaut!

Now what has happened is that India and Pakistan have agreed to basically have each others' backs! For example in the event of an India-Pakistan war India relies on Russia to ensure that China does not attack its rear! Antoher example: Russia has been churning out new advanced weapon systems (and i do not mean the Soviet-era 70's vintage BS countries like Iraq and Syria buy but real good stuff) and guess who pays the Russians to do the research? The Indians! They foot the bankroll, and India is the only nation that Russia sells military hardware that is top of the line ......all other sales (even the ones to China) are what are referred to as 'monkey-model.'

The reason Russia does this is by making India into a major power (more major than it already is) then it guarantees itself a strong ally in case the Chinese should decide to create another '1000 year empire.' The Russians (and Indians) could implore the USA for help, but it is more prudent to have an ally who is next door and faces an imminent threat from the same enemy!

Obviosuly China will be a major threat to the US in the future, but Russia (and India) feel that they are in greater peril since they are literally adjacent to the kingdom of Chin!

Thus i find it hard to think India would ever let go of its nukes! Doing such a thing would be foolish for India since:

a) Pakistan is NOT to be trusted!

b)The 'China Factor.'

I think the Pakistanis made this silly offer because they feel threatened by India! After all India is qualitatively and quantitatively ahead of Pakistan and even though they are fanatical the Pakistanis have enough brain juice to try to bring some equilibrium.

[arielb]

forget China. imagine if Musharaff goes (he can't be there forever) and is replaced by some crazy Islamist guy who is willing to use the nukes. This is the best chance for India to disarm a potentially nasty situation.

And we have to get involved too-a Pakistan headed by radicals could easily sell its nukes to terrorist groups like al qaeda

[Criminal Number 18F]

I think there was also a degree of, "because we can." Certainly the VHP government wanted to put India on the world map, and that sentiment played a part in at least the public revelation of a clandestine programme of long-standing.

Many of India's moves in the aerospace world (satellites, cosmonauts, own-design aeroplanes) seem to be driven less by logic and more by nationalism and a desire to plant the Indian flag in places where, say, inward-looking Americans least expect it.

The Pakis on the other hand were working on the bomb because (1) India was and (2) they sold it to the project's financiers (Saudis) as an all-Islamic weapon. Of course, once Musharraf had the bomb, the last thing he wanted was for it to be used every time some Muslim got his arse in a crack, or give up the keys to the Wahhabi nutballs (he has his hands full with home grown Deobandi nutballs).

The nations of the Subcontinent have found out what the Club of Five have long known: while nucs are powerful things, in the real world they are not all that useful. Especially considering what these two relatively poor countries spent on them (not only money but human capital as well).

The alarming thing to me is that India for all its faults has a fifty year history of robust parlimentarian rule and a stridently free press. Not to mention the intricate constitution, which limits that parliament in a way that, say, the UK Commons is not limited. Pakistan lacks both the constitution and many of the other bonds that hold India together. The only reason Pakistan is not another Afghanistan, is the pressure exerted by the civil service and army, institutions inherited from the UK and barely holding up. (before Afghanistan started its descent into hell, its unifying army was racked by political purges).

d.o.l.

Criminal Number 18F

[observer5]

"Correctamundo! It is a little known fact that China occupies an area that is claimed by India. And, India occupies an area that is claimed by China."

Off course, China lays claim to Manhatten...

[observer5]

"Pakistan lacks both the constitution and many of the other bonds that hold India together"

Such as a peaceful (Hindu) polulation...

[Pearls Before Swine]

Imo, India has nukes for two reasons: China AND China. We didn't test to deter Pakistan, but to deter China.

Sounds right. But, if Pakistan had been ahead in developing nukes, India definitely would have followed suit. Of course, being a client state of China helped Pakistan's nuclear program dramatically, and leads us right back to your statement.

[xrp]

It is in the national interests of the U.S. to stop and, if possible, roll back the proliferation of nuclear states beyond the traditional Big Five.

Promising India that it will have the full protection of the U.S. nuclear umbrella, as do other U.S. allies, in the event of a Chinese nuclear attack would address the concern of such a Chinese attack to a much greater extent than India's own deterrence ever could.

I disagree a little here. The "Big Five" meaning US, UK, China, Russia and France? Are you sure that keeping France nuclear armed is a good idea? Their Muslim minority is growing fast and in 30-50 years could approach a majority of the French population.

I also doubt much that a US nuclear umbrella that is on the other side of the world from India/China would be very ideal for India, which shares a border in several places with China.

[Polybius]

I disagree a little here. The "Big Five" meaning US, UK, China, Russia and France? Are you sure that keeping France nuclear armed is a good idea?

H*ll, no. :-)

If it were up to me, only the U.S. and the U.K. would have nukes.

However, once a country has nukes and the intercontinental delivery systems to rain them down on the other guys, there is not much that the other members in the Club can do to kick them out of the Club.

[neither-nor]

IndianChief is right in his perspective. India's nuclear program accelarated after the Chinese tested their device, I think in 1964. (We've fought a war with China is 1962). We made our first test in 1974. A commonly known, but deliberately underplayed part of our nuclear doctrine, is NOT strikes against Pakistan, but a defence mechanism against possible Chinese nuclear aggression.

IMHO, I find it difficult to believe that our leaders in India would give our nuclear capability, even with a US umbrella. There's China in our backyards, and we cannot ignore that fact. Moreover, no sovereign nation would like to give up a vital part of its defence. What was it that they stamped on those British cannons a hundred years ago?- "The last refuge of a king" , or in this case , a nation.
Also these devices are - for better or worse- the currency of global power. I think its a fact of life.

Finally, there's not much chance of nuclear instability in this country. We're a democracy, and the army is completely subservient to the polity.

[new cruelty]

Perhaps India should offer to disarm only if China were to disarm, then China could offer to disarm only if etc., etc.

[American in Israel]

Bullshirt right from the Syrian playbook. How stupid do they think we are?

Oh, yeah, we did promise to force Israel to give its territory to Arafat if he stops killing people for a little while.

Perhaps we are that stupid...

[Pearls Before Swine]

Perhaps India should offer to disarm only if China were to disarm, then China could offer to disarm only if etc., etc.

Peace through infinite recursion. Hall of mirrors diplomacy. Yeah!

[Lady Heron]

Promising India that it will have the full protection of the U.S. nuclear umbrella, as do other U.S. allies, in the event of a Chinese nuclear attack would address the concern of such a Chinese attack to a much greater extent than India's own deterrence ever could.

India does not trust us fully to rely on us for their protection. They play the middle ground between Russia, China and the U.S.. They will stick to owning their own nukes.

[flamefront]

North Korea made a similar offer earlier. Believe Pakistan too?

How would Reagan react to only having the UN do verification?

How would you like having the UN perform verification?

Isn't the UN, in effect, its own axis of evil?

[Ugly Truth]

And I'll put down my gun, when you put down your gun, but you put down your gun first, because I'm totally trustworthy despite all my threats of the past. Really, I'll put it down, you first.

[grapeape]

Sorry ole chap but I must second usafsk's statement. I would bring it one step further and say that no nation can rely on another totally.

[grapeape]

And another kid goes home with a souvvenieeerrrrr!!!!

How many home runs is that anyway??

[grapeape]

Their Muslim minority is growing fast and in 30-50 years could approach a majority of the French population.

Just an aside to the argument. I wouldn't put much credence to these over populate other countries bit. There aren't many people who are successful at it. As soon as the immigrants home countries quit sucking so hard they go back or die out. One needs to remember that Europe is one of the most racists places in the world. Those immigrants are not there because their home land is so great. If they could make the money where they are from that they make in the west they would never have come here. Also they stop having so many children when they realize how expensive they are in the west.

Cheers,

[Criminal Number 18F]

Sure a lot of the population in India are Hindus, but not all the Hindus are peaceful, and there are many other religions in India (which is why the constitution is so important). In fact, there are more Muslims in India than in Pakistan, and one of the most radical strains of Islamism started there.

It isn't just demographics that makes India more stable than Pakistan. pakistan was founded as an attempt to create a pure muslim state "unpolluted" by other religions. Since the Muslims themselves can't agree with one another as to what is pure Islam, this was destined for failure from the very beginning.

d.o.l.

Criminal Number 18F