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Dark Winter: Simulated Terrorist Sttack On Three American Cities Using Weaponized Smallpox!
Backwoods Home ^ | May 8, 2003 | Dave Duffy

Posted on 05/08/2003 9:19:28 AM PDT by JudgeAmint




Dark Winter: A simulated terrorist attack on three
American cities using weaponized smallpox


By Dave Duffy

 

Historically smallpox has been the most deadly of all diseases for humans, killing between 300 and 500 million in the last century alone, far more than the 111 million people killed in all that century’s wars combined. It is easily spread, kills 30% of those infected, and terribly scars and sometimes blinds those who survive. It was declared eradicated from Earth in 1980, but the Soviet Union has acknowledged maintaining a secret biological weapons program since then that employed 60,000 technicians and scientists. One fear is that some of the smallpox the Soviets worked with has gotten into terrorist hands, or that unemployed Soviet scientists desperate for money have been hired by Iraq, Al Qaida, or other terrorists.

 

June 22-23, 2001, nearly three months before the attack that toppled New York’s World Trade towers, the United States conducted a major simulation of a terrorist smallpox attack against three American cities. It was named Dark Winter, and it lived up to its name. Within seven weeks, one million Americans were dead and the disease had spread to 25 states and 13 foreign countries. In the face of the out of control epidemic, panic had spread across America, interrupting vital services such as food deliveries to supermarkets, and our Government considered the possibility of a nuclear response, although against whom it was not clear.

 

Following is a reenactment of that exercise, edited for brevity but containing all the essential elements. The exercise took place at Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland, and was attended by many senior level government officials. Participating institutions included the Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Strategies, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Oklahoma National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism, and the Analytic Services Institute for Homeland Security.

 

Former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn of Georgia played the President of the United States, Governor Frank Keating of Oklahoma played himself, five senior journalists who worked for major news organizations participated in mock news briefings, and a number of other participants played various key government positions ranging from the Director of Central Intelligence to key Government health advisors. Fifty people connected with U.S. bioterrorism policy preparedness observed the exercise.

 

The goal of the exercise was to increase awareness among Government officials of the danger of such an attack, and to examine the decision challenges the highest levels of Government would face if confronted with a biological attack. The ultimate aim was to improve strategies of response.

 

Smallpox was chosen as the disease because historically it has been the most feared and deadly of diseases, and one of the more likely choices for terrorists. It is not only easily spread from one person to another, but there is no effective medical treatment. It may also be unstoppable in an unvaccinated population, and since the United States’ mandatory vaccination program was stopped in 1972, the U.S. population is very susceptible to smallpox. Even that part of the population that was vaccinated as late as 1972 may have little or no protection against the disease.

 

Although smallpox was declared eradicated in 1980, two official repositories of the variola virus were kept: one at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention in Atlanta, and the other at the Russian State Research Center for Virology and Biotechnology in Koltsovo, Novosibirsk in central Siberia. Those supplies were to be used for scientific research and vaccine development, but it is now known that both countries maintained secret biological weapons programs since 1980. By 1990 the Soviet Union had a facility capable of producing 80 to 100 tons of smallpox a year, and it typically warehoused 20 tons. Although Russia and the United States have since abandoned their biological weapons programs, other countries still have them. It is thought that several rogue states like North Korea and Iraq and possibly terrorists have obtained samples of the smallpox virus.

An Iranian citizen with smallpox in 1962

Although the exercise took only two days, it simulated a time span of two weeks occurring between December 9-22, 2002. The exercise involved three National Security Council (NSC) meetings taking place on Dec. 9, 15, and 22, with the participants being made aware of evolving details of the attack and being required to establish strategies and make policy decisions to deal with it.
 

Exercise controllers acted as special assistants and deputies, providing facts and suggesting policy options to deal with the smallpox outbreak. Simulated newspaper coverage and TV video clips of the ensuing epidemic were also shown to participants, and various simulated memoranda, intelligence updates, and top level assessments of the spread of the epidemic were provided to key players whose jobs would normally require such information.
 
Each of the three NSC meetings began with controllers giving the NSC players briefings on the progress of the attack, an assessment of who the perpetrators might be, the response of the public, the comments of foreign governments, and any other information they would normally receive in such an emergency.

Assumptions

 

Several assumptions were made for this exercise, based on historical evidence and a variety of data related to susceptibility to smallpox:
  • Assumption 1: It was assumed that the initial attack was from “weaponized smallpox,” similar to what the former Soviet Union would have developed in its secret bioweapons program.

 

This would be a far more efficient way of attacking the U.S. than with, say, infected jihad volunteers walking among the U.S. population. Weaponized smallpox can be aerosolized and dispersed in a variety of ways, such as attaching an aerosol device filled with weaponized smallpox, complete with a timer, to the wall of a shopping mall, airport, or ventilation system of an enclosed stadium, or attaching a spraying device to an unmanned drone (UAV) that has been programmed with global positioning (GPS) maps and flying it over a populated area.
  • Assumption 2: The U.S. population’s “herd immunity” to smallpox was 20%, so that 228 million of its citizens were highly susceptible to infection.

 

This is a matter of debate. It is known that 42% of the population has never received a smallpox vaccination, and the remainder have declining immunity from vaccinations about 30 years ago. No one knows for sure, but epidemiologic data suggest that initial vaccination gives protection for 5 to 10 years, while revaccination gives even greater protection, possibly more than 10 years. Those who have been vaccinated twice, then, say as a child and while in the military, should have the greatest immunity.
  • Assumption 3: The transmission rate of the disease was 10 to 1, that is, each infected person infected 10 others.

 

Although transmission rates have varied widely historically depending on susceptibility of a population, the strain of disease, and various social, demographic, political, and economic factors, the simulation designers considered a 10 to 1 transmission rate a conservative estimate. The U.S. population, they pointed out, is highly susceptible because vaccinations stopped in this country 30 years ago. Also, we are a highly mobile society. By the time the first victims are diagnosed with smallpox (9-17 day incubation period), the disease will have already begun spreading to a second generation of victims. Some of the initial victims and the second generation of victims will have travelled to other cities by that time. Since few American doctors have ever seen a case of smallpox, and since the initial symptoms resemble flu, diagnosis is liable to be slow.

 

For this simulation, the 10 to 1 estimate was based on 34 smallpox outbreaks in the past involving cases of smallpox being accidentally imported into a country that no longer had endemic smallpox. Twenty four of the outbreaks occurred in winter, which is the time when smallpox spreads most readily and which is the time within which the simulated attack occurs. Of these 24, 6 outbreaks most closed paralleled the conditions of the Dark Winter exercise, and they were used to make the 10 to 1 estimate. The number of second generation cases in those 6 outbreaks ranged from 10 to 19.

 

One reason the 10 to 1 estimate is thought to be on the conservative side is because of the 1972 outbreak in Yugoslavia, which encompassed many of the aspects one finds today in American society, namely, a great number of susceptible people and a wide geographic dispersion of cases. In that outbreak a man on a religious pilgrimage to Mecca and Medina was infected with smallpox while in Iraq, then brought it back to Yugoslavia. His infection was not diagnosed, nor were the 11 people he infected suspected of having smallpox. Not until 140 new cases developed was the epidemic recognized as smallpox. Some 35 people died from this single initial infection.
  • Assumption 4: The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) had 12 million doses of vaccine available at the time of the exercise.

 

The CDC actually had 15.4 million doses, but practical experience from the 1960s and 70s smallpox eradication programs showed that it was common to lose 20% of a vial’s vaccine due to inefficiencies and waste.
  • Assumption 5: In the initial attack at three shopping malls in Oklahoma City, Philadelphia, and Atlanta, 3,000 people were infected.

 

This is considered a plausible scenario scientifically since it would take only 30 grams of weaponized smallpox to infect 3,000 people via an aerosol attack.

The 1st NSC meeting, Dec. 9, 2002

The initial attack:

 

On December 9, 2002, during the first of three NSC meetings that will take place in this simulation, the 12 NSC members are told that a smallpox outbreak has occurred in the U.S. In Oklahoma, 12 cases of smallpox have been confirmed, with 14 more suspected. There are also suspected cases of smallpox in Georgia and Pennsylvania.

 

The governor of Oklahoma, Frank Keating, who is in town to make a speech, attends the meeting. NSC members are briefed on the disease, its lethality, its contagion, and the availability of smallpox vaccine.

 

All this takes place against a backdrop of the following geopolitical situation:

     

  • Iraq is again threatening to invade Kuwait, and leaders of Kuwait, the United Arab Emirates, and Bahrain have requested the U.S., Britain, and France deploy troops to the region. The NSC meeting has been called to consider deploying forces.

     

  • Since sanctions against Iraq had been lifted six months prior, it has been discovered that Saddam Hussein is aggressively pursuing a bioweapons program.

     

  • Several top scientists from the former Soviet secret bioweapons program are believed to have been working in Iraq and Iran for the past year.

     

  • An Al Qaida terrorist was recently caught trying to buy plutonium and biological pathogens from Russia.

 

President Nunn informs the NSC members that the agenda of the meeting has changed, that the U.S. has been subjected to a suspected smallpox attack, and that it could be related to their anticipated decision to deploy troops to the Mideast. No one has yet taken credit for the attack.

 

He introduces Governor Keating, who says hospital emergency rooms in Oklahoma City hospitals are very crowded and that many in the hospital staff have failed to show up for work, fearing a smallpox infection they might bring home to their families. The media is broadcasting nonstop news about the smallpox outbreak, and the Governor is already considering calling out the National Guard if fear continues to grow among the populace. He has already declared a state of emergency and requests the President do the same. He goes before the news cameras in a few hours, he says, and he’d like to be able to tell the people of Oklahoma that all 3.5 million of them will get the smallpox vaccine within 72 hours.

 

The NSC is then briefed on smallpox, using various slides of actual smallpox cases and statistics relating to the progression, spread, and lethality of the disease: U.S. doctors have no experience with smallpox and there is no rapid diagnosis or treatment. Isolation or vaccination are the only defenses. Only 12 million doses of vaccine are available, and a CDC contract for an additional 40 million doses will not be filled until 2004. The worldwide supply of vaccine is 60 million doses, but some of it is believed worthless due to inadequate storage by some countries.

 

The NSC members are told that the CDC has sent 100,000 doses of smallpox vaccine to Oklahoma, with vaccinations restricted to infected people, their close contacts, and investigators.

 

Council members are also told that the attack most likely occurred about Dec. 1, due to at least a 7-day incubation period for the disease. The second generation of cases, then, would be about Dec. 20, 11 days away. Urgent action is needed to halt the spread of the disease, but a modern, urban, mobile population, coupled with a limited supply of vaccine, does not offer encouraging prospects for controlling the outbreak.

 

The FBI tells the Council they will have 200 agents vaccinated and sent to Oklahoma within 24 hours, but they have no leads as yet. Several possible culprits are named: Iraq, Iran, North Korea, China, Russia all have the capability. But anyone who has obtained samples of smallpox, possibly from an unemployed Soviet scientist, could grow smallpox and launch an attack.

 

Council members consider their options. The CDC and local authorities would already be isolating victims and their closest contacts. Should public gatherings be curtailed and schools closed? How should the available vaccine be distributed? Should the National Guard be activated, and should it be under state or federal control? Should there be mandatory or voluntary vaccinations? What should the public be told? What should be done about the deployment of troops to the Mideast?

 

They agree to inform the public quickly and completely to ensure cooperation with disease control measures. They decide to use the “ring method” of vaccination, which worked so successfully in eradicating the disease in the 1960s and 70s. With the ring method, all first contacts with the victim are vaccinated, then a second ring of secondary contacts are vaccinated. The NSC decides the ring method should also be used in other states, should the virus break out there. For strategic purposes they reserve 1 million doses of vaccine for Department of Defense (DOD) needs, and instruct the DOD to determine its priorities. They also decide to deploy an additional aircraft carrier battle group to the Persian Gulf to join the one already there.

 

The final action of the NSC is to prepare a presidential statement for the news media, which the President delivers to a nationwide audience from the press room.

The 2nd NSC meeting, Dec. 15, 2002

The outbreak spreads:

 

The second NSC meeting opens with a review of the following news video clips:

     

  • 300 people are dead and 2000 are infected in 15 states. Hospitals are overwhelmed as tens of thousand of sick or fearful people seek medical help. Many hospital employees are not showing up for work.

     

  • The epidemic has spread to Canada, Mexico, and the United Kingdom, with Canada and Mexico asking the U.S. for vaccine.

     

  • Violence has broken out in some areas, with riots around a vaccination site in Philadelphia leaving two dead. Police and the National Guard are trying to control the crowds.

     

  • Many countries have closed their borders to people travelling from the U.S. unless they can show proof of recent smallpox vaccination.

     

  • Governor Keating is considering closing all stores to try and halt the spread of the disease. Malls across the country are already virtually deserted. The Governor has closed all schools and universities and cancelled all sporting events.

     

  • The federal government is being widely criticized from all quarters for failure to have an adequate smallpox vaccine on hand. The lone pharmaceutical company capable of making smallpox vaccine says that at most it can produce 4 million doses per month, even if all FDA regulations are waived. Russia has offered to provide 4 million doses of vaccine.

     

  • Panic buying is beginning to occur in some cities as food deliveries are slowed by the reluctance of truckers to go into areas with smallpox. There are sporadic reports of people of Arab appearance being assaulted on the street.

 

A memo is given to the Attorney General. It clarifies the Stafford Act, the Posse Comitatus Act, the Federal Quarantine Law, the Insurrection Act, and Martial Law, all laws designed to invoke federal authority in a national emergency. Among other things, the laws would allow the President to declare a national emergency and use military troops to quell civil disturbances, authorize the forced inoculation and isolation of people who could spread a communicable disease, restrict travel, dispose of bodies in ways contrary to personal beliefs, suspend habeas corpus (that is, arrest without due process), and curtail other liberties as needed.

 

Another memo to the FBI Director and Attorney General states there is a high probability that the attack came from another state or a state-sponsored terrorist group, and that an initial analysis of the smallpox used indicates it came from Soviet Union stocks or North Korea. The memo notes that as little as two years ago North Korean Special Forces were still receiving smallpox vaccine.

 

The President is handed a memo suggesting it may be problematic going forward with a war in the Persian Gulf, given the severity of the domestic crisis. He addresses the council members, announcing that the Secretary of State is ill and hospitalized. He says the lack of vaccine and the tactics of some states to stop the epidemic has led to serious economic disruption and civil unrest in some areas.

 

The Chair of the Deputies Committee, Dr. Tara O’Toole, outlines the progress of the epidemic and says all cases appear related to three initial attacks in Oklahoma, Georgia, and Pennsylvania. Vaccine, unfortunately, is running out amid growing political pressure to vaccinate more broadly. One million doses of vaccine are still being held for military personnel facing the potential war in the Persian Gulf. With all the vaccine that has been distributed, 1.25 million doses remain.

 

Dr. O’Toole further states that there is growing public demand for the forcible relocation of infected people to isolated facilities. She says contacts of infected people are not complying sufficiently with voluntary home isolation. There is also dangerous misinformation in some media about good vaccine and bad vaccine, advice to flee cities, claims that poor neighborhoods are being denied vaccine, and hate speech directed at certain ethnic groups.

 


Child with full-body distribution of smallpox eruptions, Pakistan, 1955

 

The FEMA Director delivers his remarks: Health care facilities have become nonfunctional in some communities due to overcrowding and workers staying away from their jobs. At least 20 hospitals have closed their doors in Oklahoma. In many states National Guard troops are providing security at hospitals, even delivering food and critical supplies. Many states have prohibited public gatherings, stopped transportation, and closed airports.

 

Once again the NSC considers its options. Members decide to leave the National Guard, as well as quarantine and isolation issues, in the hands of the states. They will accept the vaccine from Russia, and proceed with a crash program to manufacture vaccine even though liability issues have not been resolved. They opt for mandatory isolation of all smallpox victims in dedicated facilities. They will encourage voluntary isolation of contacts using National Guard and Defense Department resources to supply food. Federal travel restrictions will be established, and penalties will be imposed for the promulgation of dangerous information.

 

An intelligence memo is given to NSC members: It indicates that a new exclusionary zone has been established by Iraq around a suspected bioresearch facility near Samarra. Activity at the facility appears normal but villages for a 10-mile radius around it appear to have been abandoned.

 

In a memo delivered to the Attorney General, there are reports of increasing incidents of violence, mainly against people with dark skin or who appear Arab-American. Two mosques have been defaced and one burned in the last 24 hours. In downtown Chicago, three dark skinned youths were shot dead, apparently because they looked Middle Eastern. The ACLU has sued Pennsylvania over the issues of mandatory vaccination and curtailment of transportation.

 

The NSC watches a newsclip in which the Governor of Texas announces the suspension of all travel between Texas and Oklahoma. He urges other governors to do the same, and he strongly criticizes the federal government for being “unable or unwilling to prevent the spread of the smallpox virus.”

 

President Nunn addresses the nation on national TV. He relates the gravity of the crisis and appeals for Americans to remain calm and work together to defeat the virus, and to heed the advice of their elected leaders and health officials.

The 3rd NSC meeting, Dec. 22, 2002

A crisis out of control:

 

The third and final NSC meeting opens with a review of news video clips:

     

  • The number of smallpox cases has reached 16,000, with 1,000 people now dead. The epidemic has spread to 25 states and 10 other countries. Although investigation suggests all cases are related to the initial attack in three states, the evidence does not rule out additional or ongoing attacks.

     

  • The U.S. is suffering severe economic damage. In Atlanta and Philadelphia, most businesses are closed and massive traffic jams are occurring across the state as people try to flee the disease.

     

  • A New York Times poll indicates that most Americans think that the state and federal governments have lost control of the epidemic. A CNN/Gallup poll says nearly half of Americans think the President should use nuclear weapons against any nation proven responsible for the smallpox attack.

     

  • Violence is spreading across the nation as individuals try to keep others suspected of having smallpox at a distance. In New York, two police officers and three family members were killed when the police tried to escort two family members with smallpox to an isolation area.

 

Then Dr. O’Toole once again outlines the progress of the epidemic for the NSC:

     

  • In the past 48 hours there have been 14,000 new cases. Of the 1,000 dead, 200 have been from reactions to vaccination. It is estimated that 5,000 more will die within the next two weeks.

     

  • The vaccine has now been depleted, and the U.S. can produce only 12 million unlicensed doses a month, beginning in four weeks.

     

  • A major impact on the U.S. economy continues and there are shortages of many types of food across the nation. People are fleeing cities after the announcement of new smallpox cases.

 

The NSC asks for a worst case scenario. It is stark:

     

  • By the end of the second generation of smallpox cases (about Jan. 3), 30,000 will be infected and 10,000 dead.

     

  • By the end of Generation 3 (Jan. 20), 300,000 will be infected and 100,000 dead.

     

  • By the end of Generation 4 (Feb. 6, which is 7 weeks after the start of the epidemic), 3 million will be infected and 1 million dead.

 

A memo is given to the Secretary of State:

     

  • Russia, France, and Nigeria are demanding the U.S. share any vaccine it has to help fight the overseas spread of the epidemic.

     

  • Cuba has offered to sell smallpox vaccine to the U.S. Cuba claims it has the know-how to produce the vaccine quickly.

 

Another memo is handed to the Director of the FBI and the Director of Central Intelligence (DCI):

     

  • A credible Iraqi defector claims Iraq is behind the smallpox attack. Iraq has previously denied involvement, but has also warned the U.S. that it will retaliate against any U.S. attack in “highly damaging ways.”

 

Finally, a printed message is handed to all members of the NSC. It states that the New York Times, Washington Post, and USA Today have received anonymous letters demanding the U.S. withdraw its forces from the Persian Gulf and Saudi Arabia. The letter claims responsibility for the smallpox attack and contains a generic fingerprint of the smallpox strain matching the fingerprint of the strain causing the current epidemic. Unless the U.S. forces withdraw in one week, it warns of renewed attacks using smallpox, anthrax, and plague.

 

The Dark Winter exercise ends with the NSC discussing how to respond. If the American people demand they use nuclear weapons, against who? Should they withdraw U.S. troops from the Persian Gulf? And finally, with no vaccine remaining and the epidemic out of control, how do they control the current spread of smallpox and any new attacks with disease?

End of Dark Winter exercise

 

Astonishing! The United States had been brought to its knees by a virus delivered covertly by terrorists who lurk in the dark recesses of the world. Few thought it remotely possible before the exercise, but afterwards many inside and outside of Government became alarmed at the possibility.

 

The Dark Winter exercise was no trivial undertaking. It was carefully planned and orchestrated, primarily by the prestigious John Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland, to answer one question: Could America withstand an attack of human-inflicted disease. The answer was a resounding No! — at least in the case of smallpox. We flunked the exercise on a catastrophic scale.

 

Three months after the exercise the U.S. was subjected to the September 11 attacks against the World Trade Centers in New York City and the subsequent anthrax mail attacks in Washington, D.C. Suddenly the attacks of terrorists were not just the stuff of “what if” simulations like Dark Winter. Our Government began working on defense strategies against such attacks, and it started evaluating its stocks of smallpox vaccine.

 

The vaccine situation is different today than it was in June of 2001 when the Dark Winter exercise took place. The U.S. has found more vaccine than we thought we had, and we have diluted other vaccine to make it stretch far enough to cover the American population. There are still questions about the effectiveness of this diluted vaccine after so many years in storage, but new vaccine to cover the entire population is being manufactured and will be ready in early 2004.

 

Risks associated with the vaccine are another serious consideration not discussed in the Dark Winter simulation.


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; War on Terror
KEYWORDS: bioterrorism; biowarfare; homelandsecurity; middleeastterror; smallpox; vaccines
In light of next weeks "terror test drill" in the Seattle area, it will be noteworthy of how the new test tracks with the 2001 test.
1 posted on 05/08/2003 9:19:29 AM PDT by JudgeAmint
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To: MizSterious; spectre; Jaded
Ping...) ) ) June 2001 was the last "simulated drill"...hmmmmmm!!
2 posted on 05/08/2003 9:20:08 AM PDT by JudgeAmint (from DA Judge!!)
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To: JudgeAmint
I hear Chicago is on the list too.
3 posted on 05/08/2003 9:22:22 AM PDT by OXENinFLA
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To: JudgeAmint
Did anyone ever notice that our government is trying to scare us more than the terrorists are?
4 posted on 05/08/2003 9:22:49 AM PDT by samuel_adams_us
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To: OXENinFLA

 

Huge homeland security drills planned in Seattle, Chicago

By Matthew Daly, Associated Press, 5/5/2003 17:52

WASHINGTON (AP) A few minutes before noon next Monday, hundreds of firefighters and police officers including some in bright yellow ''moon suits'' will gather near an old brewery off Interstate 5 in Seattle.

It soon will seem as if a radioactive ''dirty bomb'' has exploded.

Around the same time, hospital officials in and near Chicago will notice a sudden increase in people complaining of flu-like symptoms. Within minutes officials will confirm the presence of a deadly biological agent.

The officials will be real, but the emergencies they are responding to will not be.

The staged events are part of a weeklong drill aimed at testing the ability of local, state and federal authorities to handle a terrorist attack.

Dubbed Topoff 2 (for top officials), the weeklong drills will be the first large-scale counterterrorism exercises since Sept. 11, 2001. They were created by the Department of Homeland Security.

Homeland Security Secretary Tom Ridge explained the drill and its purpose.

''Let me be clear: This is a simulation,'' Ridge said Monday at a news conference. ''This is a test. This is an exercise.''

Ridge repeated that several times as he and other officials tried to prepare the public particularly those in the Seattle, Chicago and Washington areas for the security drill, the most extensive of its type in U.S. history. The exercise will cost an estimated $16 million and involve more than 8,500 people from 100 federal, state and local agencies, the American Red Cross and the Canadian government.

''Our objective is to improve the nation's capacity to save lives in ... a terrorist event,'' including use of weapons of mass destruction, Ridge said.

Seattle Mayor Greg Nickels said he was not worried that the security exercise would cause panic, noting that the event has received extensive publicity locally. Newspaper ads are planned in both Seattle and Chicago, and crews can already be seen preparing for the Seattle event, which will be centered near the former Rainier Brewery now home to Tully's Coffee just south of downtown.

''Our intent is to let people know what we're doing,'' Nickels said.

Officials declined to reveal details of what will happen, but participants know the Seattle event involves a mock dirty bomb a crude combination of conventional explosives such as TNT packed with radioactive material while the Chicago event involves covert release of a deadly biological agent.

A detailed, 200-page scenario has been written for the drill, which officials said will be as realistic-looking as possible. Stand-ins will portray President Bush, Vice President Cheney and even press secretary Ari Fleischer.

''There's a lot of role-playing, but I'll be playing myself,'' Ridge said.

Some details have been kept from the participants in order to make the exercise more realistic, said Ted Macklin, assistant director of the Office of Domestic Preparedness. The office has been planning the event since shortly after the first Topoff drill, three years ago in Denver and New Hampshire.

''We want to keep responders guessing,'' Macklin said.

Participants will range from governors, mayors, county executives and other elected officials to police officers, firefighters, hospital personnel and other emergency responders.

Hundreds of evaluators will watch the exercise and report their findings for later study. Whatever lessons are learned are likely to apply to earthquakes and other natural disasters, as well as terrorist attacks, officials said.


5 posted on 05/08/2003 9:24:31 AM PDT by JudgeAmint (from DA Judge!!)
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To: OXENinFLA
Yep, you are correct..Thanks for reminding me.
6 posted on 05/08/2003 9:24:50 AM PDT by JudgeAmint (from DA Judge!!)
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To: JudgeAmint
Bump for later read.
7 posted on 05/08/2003 9:27:55 AM PDT by EternalHope (Boycott everything French forever.)
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To: JudgeAmint; All
Nuclear, Biological, & Chemical Warfare- Survival Skills, Pt. II
8 posted on 05/08/2003 9:31:16 AM PDT by backhoe
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To: samuel_adams_us
The NSC asks for a worst case scenario. It is stark:

     

  • By the end of the second generation of smallpox cases (about Jan. 3), 30,000 will be infected and 10,000 dead.

     

  • By the end of Generation 3 (Jan. 20), 300,000 will be infected and 100,000 dead.

     

  • By the end of Generation 4 (Feb. 6, which is 7 weeks after the start of the epidemic), 3 million will be infected and 1 million dead.

And we can not decide whether or not to quarantine SARS Symptomatic people, arriving in the USA via International flights?  We are facing down serious plague risk.  Unbelievable.

9 posted on 05/08/2003 9:32:19 AM PDT by JudgeAmint (from DA Judge!!)
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To: backhoe
BTTT and thanks...
10 posted on 05/08/2003 9:33:07 AM PDT by JudgeAmint (from DA Judge!!)
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To: Poohbah
Really interesting.
11 posted on 05/08/2003 9:34:51 AM PDT by Chancellor Palpatine
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To: backhoe

 

PREPARING FOR A BIOLOGICAL ATTACK

 

1.      Be prepared—keep a gas mask handy at home, at work (especially in high-rise office buildings where the mask can help you escape in smoky or dusty conditions), and in the trunk of your car. A gas mask by your bedside is your best option in a fire for escape and rescue of your family.

 

2.      If you fear you have been exposed to biological agents (Anthrax, plague, Tularemia, Brucellosis, Q fever, smallpox, viral encephalitic, or hemorrhagic fever) do the following during the one- to six-day incubation period before symptoms arise.

 

NOTE: This is my own personal list for situations in which you cannot or do not wish to recur to conventional antibiotic treatment, or when such treatment is not available. Copy and implement these suggestions at your own risk. I make no medical claims or guarantees of effectiveness. Your success against these agents will vary according to exposure, the prior state of your immune system, and many other factors.

 

Do NOT begin antibiotic treatment until symptoms appear. Early or excessive use of antibiotics will destroy the natural bacterial flora in your intestinal tract and render your immune system less effective.  

 

a.      Stop eating your normal, cooked food diet.

 

b.      Begin a very light diet (almost light fasting) of raw fruits and vegetables and juices (no commercial products with artificial or natural sweeteners).

 

c.      Drink a lot of water, but do not drink water from public water supplies; avoid chlorine or fluoride. [I recommend installing a water purifying system in your home before a major biological attack occurs. Once it does, there will be a run on equipment. Have several bottles of aerobic-type oxygen liquid on hand for water purification. Oxygen-based purifiers are far safer and better than chemicals or bleach. See the J&A Specialty Products link at the bottom of my website front page to obtain some of these products at very low prices.]

 

d.      Take the following natural and herbal anti-bacterial and anti-viral capsules:

·        Natural Vitamin C with bioflavanoids—1000 mg every two hours, along with natural juice or fruit. [If diarrhea develops, cut dose in half. If symptoms of aches or fever begin, take hourly.]

·        Raw garlic (crush into tomato juice)—one small clove every six hours.

·        Colloidal silver solution—one dropper full of every six hours.

·        Echinacea—one capsule three times a day.

·        Goldenseal—one capsule three times a day.

·        Olive leaf extract—one capsule three times a day.

·        Grape seed extract (or other high-potency anti-oxidant)—one capsule six times a day.  

 

e.      Use melaleuca (Tea Tree Oil) as a salve for all lesions, open wounds, or sores.

 

There are other natural preparations that I believe are effective, including some new detox homeopathic preparations. Check with the Herbal Healing Academy at 870-269-4177 or www.herbalhealer.com. This academy has excellent prices, information, and products. I have no financial interest in any of the recommendations I make.

 

3.      If you begin to have symptoms, begin antibiotic treatment immediately, under the care of a physician, if available. Chances are high that despite government assurances, there will not be enough antibiotics to go around in a major biological attack, so it is important to live healthily and stockpile natural alternatives. Learn to live with alternative remedies before your life depends on them since it takes some skill and sensitivity to learn to recognize your own body’s feedback signals giving you hints about what it needs. Remember, too, that natural solutions only work well when your body is NOT loaded down with food, especially junk food or cooked food, which have no live enzymes.

 

4.      Leave any area where infection is growing. Find temporary housing in rural areas. It is best to make arrangements with friends and relatives beforehand. This is important to avoid continual exposure even to low levels of contaminants. Wear your gas mask in the car when leaving town. Don’t worry about looking silly—it may save your life.

 

5.      If you can’t leave the area, close all windows and doors in your home and stay indoors. Wear a gas mask as long as you can do so without undue stress. You must remove it to eat and drink, unless it has a built in water straw.

 

GAS MASK RECOMMENDATIONS

 

What to Avoid

If you have already purchased one of these items (or this is all you can find), go ahead and use the item. But don’t pay more than $20 or $30 for the mask or filter. Otherwise choose from the “OK Choices” list below.

 

·        Old US M17 series masks with cheek filters. These are hard to replace and tedious to change.

·        All Russian, East German surplus masks. The quality is poor for these masks.

·        Old, outdated filter cartridges. These filters are still useful, but won’t offer close to 100 percent assured protection, nor do they filter effectively for more than a few hours.

·        M9 gas masks with the 60-mm size cartridge. The filters for these masks are oddly sized and are not compatible with the NATO standard.

 

OK Choices

These masks cost from the low to moderate range ($30 to $150).

 

·        Israeli Civilian or M15 military version masks. These are usually the best buy, but they are only acceptable if you replace the stock filter cartridge with a current, dated M95 filter cartridge, which gives the full range of modern protection. Military personnel used to the finest equipment will likely denigrate this choice, but my personal experience with these masks says they are very functional for civilian uses. Adult and youth sizes are available.

·        Canadian M69 masks. Some of these masks have had slight leaks at the voice piece. Check and test before you buy.

 

 

Current Model Choices

These items cost from the moderate to expensive range ($200 to $300). In my opinion, the expense is too high unless you are certain you are going into a high-threat zone where you need the best. All masks have drinking straw options and other high tech features and are lightweight.

 

·        Advantage 1000 mask. This civilian version is expensive.

·        British S10 mask. This mask has a current NATO filter

·        BSK (European standard mask). Available at www.redrainbow.com.

·        Canadian C4. This is probably the best and most comfortable mask made, but it’s hard to find in the United States.

·        US M40 series. The current issue is expensive.

·        US M95 mask. This is the best buy of a modern U.S. model. The mask comes with a well-priced M95 c/a filter, the universal NATO filter, which also can be used with other masks.

 

Sources

There are hundreds of sources for gas masks and filters. Prices vary wildly now and, not surprisingly, availability is low, low, low. It will start to come back in a couple of weeks. Beware of Internet sources that are charging more than the average pre-September 11 prices mentioned here—it means they are taking advantage of the crises. I wouldn’t pay more than $250 for even the best masks. Most acceptable mask should be below $150. Best buys are under $74.

 

Three good sources for masks and filters are:

 

·        www.4starmilitarysurplus.com

·        www.botachtactical.com

·        www.redrainbow.com

 

There are others. No distributor carries the full line of different masks, so you’ll have to search around on the Internet. If you find others with reasonable prices, please email me at joel@joelskousen.com and I will post the information.

 


12 posted on 05/08/2003 9:34:53 AM PDT by JudgeAmint (from DA Judge!!)
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To: JudgeAmint
A worst case scenario with the worst possible bio weapon.
13 posted on 05/08/2003 9:40:54 AM PDT by finnman69 (!)
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To: JudgeAmint
Thanks- I'll use those links!
14 posted on 05/08/2003 9:45:44 AM PDT by backhoe
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To: finnman69
This article is hogwash. IF this did happen why did we not hear of it. I do not recall any smallpox epidemic in 2001.

What the hell is this? Oh, and BTW,

JudgeAmint Since Mar 6, 2003

15 posted on 05/08/2003 9:46:31 AM PDT by EggsAckley ( Midnight at the Oasis)
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To: EggsAckley
And? Wasn't there a significant jump in new memberships during the war?
16 posted on 05/08/2003 10:03:15 AM PDT by Jaded (rant away, it's what I expect anyway)
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To: EggsAckley
Eggs--a simulated thought/war-gaming exercise to assess US readiness. Says so at the top of the article. Very interesting and worrisome, I'd say, although a lot of these analyses were posted pre-Iraq war when libs wanted wide worry.
17 posted on 05/08/2003 10:05:08 AM PDT by Pearls Before Swine (South-south-west, south, south-east, east....)
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To: Pearls Before Swine
I saw the word simulated but read it to mean that it HAD happened, as a test, a "simulation". Deceptive, imo.
18 posted on 05/08/2003 10:53:18 AM PDT by EggsAckley ( Midnight at the Oasis)
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To: EggsAckley
SIMULATION = EVENT??? HUH??
19 posted on 05/08/2003 11:31:52 AM PDT by JudgeAmint (from DA Judge!!)
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To: EggsAckley
BTW..what is you definition of the meaning of the word "IS"??
20 posted on 05/08/2003 11:33:00 AM PDT by JudgeAmint (from DA Judge!!)
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To: JudgeAmint
Colloidal silver solution—one dropper full of every six hours.

Yeah, right. You'll just end up a Smurf.

21 posted on 05/08/2003 11:36:30 AM PDT by AppyPappy (If You're Not A Part Of The Solution, There's Good Money To Be Made In Prolonging The Problem.)
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To: EggsAckley
I'm sorry Eggs, but you need to improve your reading comprehension skills. The following excerpts from the article make it perfectly clear that this was NOT a real event. In fact, the first sentence of the second paragraph clearly states that the simulation tookplace over a TWO DAY PERIOD:

June 22-23, 2001, nearly three months before the attack that toppled New York’s World Trade towers, the United States conducted a major simulation of a terrorist smallpox attack against three American cities.

The exercise took place at Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland...

Former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn of Georgia played the President of the United States, Governor Frank Keating of Oklahoma played himself, five senior journalists who worked for major news organizations participated in mock news briefings, and a number of other participants played various key government positions ranging from the Director of Central Intelligence to key Government health advisors.

Although the exercise took only two days, it simulated a time span of two weeks occurring between December 9-22, 2002.

Etc. etc. etc.

Next time, please do yourself and everyone else a favor, and actually READ an article before crying hogwash.

22 posted on 05/08/2003 11:41:33 AM PDT by BagCamAddict
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To: BagCamAddict; MizSterious; All
BTTT
23 posted on 05/08/2003 11:43:55 AM PDT by JudgeAmint (from DA Judge!!)
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To: EggsAckley
HOGWASH UPDATE, HOGWASH UPDATE
alt

 
alt
This exercise was made possible by grant funding from The McCormick Tribune Foundation and The Oklahoma City National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism.

altOn 22-23 June (2001), the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Studies, the ANSER Institute for Homeland Security, and the Oklahoma National Memorial Institute for the Prevention Terrorism, hosted a senior-level war game examining the national security, intergovernmental, and information challenges of a biological attack on the American homeland.

With tensions rising in the Taiwan Straits, and a major crisis developing in Southwest Asia, a smallpox outbreak was confirmed by the CDC in Oklahoma City. During the thirteen days of the game, the disease spread to 25 states and 15 other countries. Fourteen participants and 60 observers witnessed terrorism/warfare in slow motion. Discussions, debates (some rather heated) and decisions focused on the public health response, lack of an adequate supply of smallpox vaccine, roles and missions of federal and state governments, civil liberties associated with quarantine and isolation, the role of DoD, and potential military responses to the anonymous attack. Additionally, a predictable 24/7 new cycle quickly developed that focused the nation and the world on the attack and response. Five representatives from the national press corps (including print and broadcast) participated in the game, including a lengthy press conference with the President.

Several articles and reports will be produced in the coming weeks and months. Additionally, at least one Congressional hearing will be conducted to explore the lessons learned by the key participants. The first hearing is scheduled for the week of 22 July with the Subcommittee on National Security, Veterans Affairs and International Relations (Congressman Shays, Chairman).

SCENARIO OVERVIEW

DARK WINTER was an exercise designed to simulate possible US reaction to the deliberate introduction of smallpox in three states during the winter of 2002.

KEY PLAYERS
 

President The Hon. Sam Nunn
National Security Advisor The Hon. David Gergen
Director of Central Intelligence The Hon. R. James Woolsey
Secretary of Defense The Hon. John White
Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff General John Tilelli (USA, Ret.)
Secretary of Health & Human Services The Hon. Margaret Hamburg
Secretary of State The Hon. Frank Wisner
Attorney General The Hon. George Terwilliger
Director, Federal Emergency Management Agency Mr. Jerome Hauer
Director, Federal Bureau of Investigation The Hon. William Sessions
Governor of Oklahoma The Hon. Frank Keating
Press Secretary, Gov. Frank Keating (OK) Mr. Dan Mahoney
Correspondent, NBC News Mr. Jim Miklaszewski
Pentagon Producer, CBS News Ms. Mary Walsh
Reporter, British Broadcasting Corporation Ms. Sian Edwards
Reporter, The New York Times Ms. Judith Miller
Reporter, Freelance Mr. Lester Reingold

The players were introduced to this crisis during a National Security Council meeting scheduled to address several emerging crises, including the deployment of a carrier task force to the Middle East. At the start of the meeting, the Director of Health and Human Services informed the President of a confirmed case of smallpox in Oklahoma City. Additional smallpox cases were soon identified in Georgia and Pennsylvania. More cases appeared in Oklahoma. The source of the infection was unknown, and exposure was presumed to have taken place at least nine days earlier due to the lengthy incubation period of smallpox. Consequently, exposed individuals had likely traveled far from the loci of what was now presumed to be a biological attack. The exercise spanned 13 days, and served as a vehicle to illustrate the following points.

EXERCISE LEARNING POINTS

1) An attack on the United States with biological weapons could threaten vital national security interests. Massive civilian casualties, breakdown in essential institutions, violation of democratic processes, civil disorder, loss of confidence in government and reduced US strategic flexibility abroad are among the ways a biological attack might compromise US security.

2) Current organizational structures and capabilities are not well suited for the management of a BW attack. Major “fault lines” exist between different levels of government (federal, state, and local), between government and the private sector, among different institutions and agencies, and within the public and private sector. These “disconnects” could impede situational awareness and compromise the ability to limit loss of life, suffering, and economic damage.

3) There is no surge capability in the US health care and public health systems, or the pharmaceutical and vaccine industries. This institutionally limited surge capacity could result in hospitals being overwhelmed and becoming inoperable; could impede public health agencies’ analysis of the scope, source and progress of the epidemic, the ability to educate and reassure the public, and the capacity to limit causalities and the spread of disease.

4) Dealing with the media will be a major, immediate challenge for all levels of government. Information management and communication (e.g., dealing with the press effectively, communication with citizens, maintaining the information flows necessary for command and control at all institutional levels) will be a critical element in crisis/consequence management.

5) Should a contagious bioweapon pathogen be used, containing the spread of disease will present significant ethical, political, cultural, operational and legal challenges.

SMALLPOX, because of its high case-fatality rates and transmissibility, represents one of the most serious biological warfare threats to the civilian population. In 1980, the World Health Assembly announced that smallpox had been eradicated and recommended that all countries cease vaccination. Although labs in two countries still officially store smallpox samples (US and Russia), its re-appearance would almost certainly indicate an intentional outbreak.

Aerosol release of smallpox virus disseminated among a relatively small population could result in a significant epidemic. Evidence suggests the infectious dose is very small. Several factors are cause for concern: the disease has historically been feared as one of the most serious of all pestilential diseases; it is physically disfiguring; it bears a 30 percent case-fatality rate; there is no treatment; it is communicable from person to person. Vaccination ceased in this country in 1972, and vaccination immunity acquired before that time has undoubtedly waned. Prior to eradication, data on smallpox outbreaks in Europe indicated that victims had the potential to infect 10 to 20 others. However, there has never been a smallpox outbreak in such a densely populated, highly mobile, unvaccinated population such as exists today.

In 1947, in response to a single case of smallpox in New York City, 6,350,000 people were immunized (500,000 in one day), including President Harry Truman. In 1972, after disappearing from Yugoslavia for four decades, a single case of smallpox emerged. There are two ways to control a smallpox epidemic – vaccine and isolation. Yugoslavia’s Communist leader, Josip Tito, used both. He instituted a nation-wide quarantine, and immunized the entire country of 20 million people using vaccine supplied by the World Health Organization.

Estimates of the current US supply of smallpox vaccine range from seven to twelve million doses. This stock cannot be immediately replenished, since all vaccine production facilities were dismantled after 1980, and renewed vaccine production is estimated to require at least 24-36 months. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently contracted with Acambis Inc. of Cambridge MA to produce 40 million doses of new vaccine. Initial deliveries will not begin before 2004.

“DARK WINTER”was developed and produced by:

The Center for Strategic and International Studies
www.csis.org
Contact: Dr. John Hamre, President & CEO
(202) 775-3227

The Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Studies
www.hopkins-biodefense.org
Contact: Dr. Tara O’Toole, Deputy Director
(410) 223-1667

The ANSER Institute for Homeland Security
www.homelandsecurity.org
Contact: Col. Randy Larsen (Ret.), Director
(703) 416-3597

The Oklahoma City National
Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism

www.mipt.org
Contact: General Dennis J. Reimer (Ret.), Director
(405) 232-5121

EXERCISE OBSERVERS
 
Ms. Ann Beauchesne
Program Director, Emergency Management & Environment
National Governors Association
Ms. Luciana Borio
Assistant
Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Studies
Dr. David Bowen
Congressional Fellow
Office of Senator Edward Kennedy
Maj. Craig Cady
Legislative Fellow
Office of Representative Jim Saxton
Mr. Mike Casey
Legislative Assistant
Office of Representative Vic Snyder
CPT Joni Charme
Deputy Legal Advisor
Joint Task Force Civil Support
Mr. Frank Cilluffo
Deputy Director, Global Organized Crime Project
Center for Strategic & International Studies
Dr. Anthony Cordesman
The Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy
Center for Strategic & International Studies
MG Stephen Cortwright
The Adjutant General
Oklahoma Military Department
Dr. Ruth David
President and CEO
Analytic Services Inc. (ANSER)
Mr. Skip Fischer
Legislative Assistant
Office of Senator Jon Kyl
Mr. Jeffrey Fuller
Manager, Regional Conflict Division
Analytic Services Inc. (ANSER)
Maj. General Gregory Gardner, NGB
Adjutant General and Director of Emergency Management
State of Kansas
Mr. Jim Gass
Oklahoma City National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism
Dr. James Hodge
Project Director - Center for the Law & the Public's Health
Johns Hopkins and Georgetown Universities
Mr. Krister Holladay
Deputy Chief of Staff
Office of Representative Saxby Chambliss
Mr. Michael Hurt
Senior Policy Advisor
Office of Representative Jim Saxton
Mr. Joseph Jakub
Professional Staff Member
House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence
COL Robert Kadlec, MD
Professor of Military Strategy and Operations
National War College
Dr. Lani Kass
Senior Policy Advisor
Strategic Plans and Policy, J-5
Dr. Barry Kellman
Professor
Depaul University School of Law
Ms. Kim Kotlar
Military Legislative Assistant
Office of Representative Mac Thornberry
Mr. Gordon Lederman
Associate
Arnold & Porter
Mr. Jim Lewis
Professional Staff Member
House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence
Dr. Scott Lillibridge
Director, Bioterrorism Preparedness Program
Centers for Disease Control
Mr. Jim Martin
Secretary-Treasurer
NGA-Past Governors Association
Mrs. Barbara Martinez
Chief, WMD Operations Unit
Federal Bureau of Investigation
Mr. Dan McConkie
Staff Assistant to the Vice Chairman
Joint Economic Committee, Joint Committee of Congress
Mr. Alan McCurry
Military Legislative Assistant
Office of Senator Pat Roberts
Ms. Lisa Moreno-Hix
Director of Programs
Oklahoma City National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism
Mr. Bill Natter
Professional Staff Member
House Armed Services Committee
Dr. Paula Olsiewski
Program Director
Alfred P. Sloan Foundation
Mr. R. Nicholas Palarino
Senior Policy Analyst
U.S. House of Representatives Subcommittee on National Security House Committee on Government Reform
Mr. Michael Powers
Research Associate
Chemical & Biological Arms Control Institute
Ms. Linnea Raine
Visiting Department of Energy Fellow
Center for Strategic & International Studies
General Dennis Reimer (USA, Ret.)
Director
Oklahoma City National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism
Dr. Peter Roman
Chairman, Department of Political Science at Duquesne University and Senior Fellow at the ANSER
Institute for Homeland Security
Mr. Richard Saunders
Principal
Booz-Allen & Hamilton, Inc.
Dr. Monica Schoch-Spana
Medical Anthropologist & Research Associate
Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Studies
Mr. Danny Seabright
Office of the Under Secretary of
Defense for Policy
Mr. John Sirek
Director, Citizenship Program
Robert R. McCormick Tribune Foundation
Mr. Jeffrey Smith
Partner
Arnold & Porter
Mr. Henry St. Germain
Senior Consultant
Analytic Services Inc. (ANSER)
Col. Stephen Waller, USAF
Director, USAF Surgeon General's Tactical Action Team
HQUSAF/SGT
Dr. Marion Warwick
Medical Epidemiologist Emergency Terrorism Response Unit
Missouri Department of Health
EXERCISE STAFF
 
The Honorable John Hamre
President and CEO
Center for Strategic & International Studies

 
The Honorable Tara O'Toole
Deputy Director
Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Studies
Col. Randall Larsen (USAF, Ret.)
Director, ANSER Institute for Homeland Security
Analytic Services Inc. (ANSER)
 
Ms. Sue Reingold
Visiting National Security Agency Fellow
Center for Strategic & International Studies
Dr. Thomas Inglesby
Senior Fellow
Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Studies
Mr. Michael Mair
Fellow
Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Studies
Ms. Joyce Whiting
ANSER Institute for Homeland Security

Analytic Services Inc. (ANSER)
 
Mr. Mark DeMier
Editor-in-Chief, The Journal of Homeland Security
Analytic Services Inc. (ANSER)
Mr. John Wohlfarth
Research Analyst, ANSER Institute for Homeland Security

Analytic Services Inc. (ANSER)
Mr. Robertson Gile
Research Assistant
Center for Strategic & International Studies

24 posted on 05/08/2003 11:47:45 AM PDT by JudgeAmint (from DA Judge!!)
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To: EggsAckley; All

 

 

25 posted on 05/08/2003 11:57:05 AM PDT by JudgeAmint (from DA Judge!!)
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