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To: Pearls Before Swine
I saw the word simulated but read it to mean that it HAD happened, as a test, a "simulation". Deceptive, imo.
18 posted on 05/08/2003 10:53:18 AM PDT by EggsAckley ( Midnight at the Oasis)
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To: EggsAckley
BTW..what is you definition of the meaning of the word "IS"??
20 posted on 05/08/2003 11:33:00 AM PDT by JudgeAmint (from DA Judge!!)
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To: EggsAckley
I'm sorry Eggs, but you need to improve your reading comprehension skills. The following excerpts from the article make it perfectly clear that this was NOT a real event. In fact, the first sentence of the second paragraph clearly states that the simulation tookplace over a TWO DAY PERIOD:

June 22-23, 2001, nearly three months before the attack that toppled New York’s World Trade towers, the United States conducted a major simulation of a terrorist smallpox attack against three American cities.

The exercise took place at Andrews Air Force Base in Maryland...

Former U.S. Senator Sam Nunn of Georgia played the President of the United States, Governor Frank Keating of Oklahoma played himself, five senior journalists who worked for major news organizations participated in mock news briefings, and a number of other participants played various key government positions ranging from the Director of Central Intelligence to key Government health advisors.

Although the exercise took only two days, it simulated a time span of two weeks occurring between December 9-22, 2002.

Etc. etc. etc.

Next time, please do yourself and everyone else a favor, and actually READ an article before crying hogwash.

22 posted on 05/08/2003 11:41:33 AM PDT by BagCamAddict
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To: EggsAckley
HOGWASH UPDATE, HOGWASH UPDATE
alt

 
alt
This exercise was made possible by grant funding from The McCormick Tribune Foundation and The Oklahoma City National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism.

altOn 22-23 June (2001), the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Studies, the ANSER Institute for Homeland Security, and the Oklahoma National Memorial Institute for the Prevention Terrorism, hosted a senior-level war game examining the national security, intergovernmental, and information challenges of a biological attack on the American homeland.

With tensions rising in the Taiwan Straits, and a major crisis developing in Southwest Asia, a smallpox outbreak was confirmed by the CDC in Oklahoma City. During the thirteen days of the game, the disease spread to 25 states and 15 other countries. Fourteen participants and 60 observers witnessed terrorism/warfare in slow motion. Discussions, debates (some rather heated) and decisions focused on the public health response, lack of an adequate supply of smallpox vaccine, roles and missions of federal and state governments, civil liberties associated with quarantine and isolation, the role of DoD, and potential military responses to the anonymous attack. Additionally, a predictable 24/7 new cycle quickly developed that focused the nation and the world on the attack and response. Five representatives from the national press corps (including print and broadcast) participated in the game, including a lengthy press conference with the President.

Several articles and reports will be produced in the coming weeks and months. Additionally, at least one Congressional hearing will be conducted to explore the lessons learned by the key participants. The first hearing is scheduled for the week of 22 July with the Subcommittee on National Security, Veterans Affairs and International Relations (Congressman Shays, Chairman).

SCENARIO OVERVIEW

DARK WINTER was an exercise designed to simulate possible US reaction to the deliberate introduction of smallpox in three states during the winter of 2002.

KEY PLAYERS
 

President The Hon. Sam Nunn
National Security Advisor The Hon. David Gergen
Director of Central Intelligence The Hon. R. James Woolsey
Secretary of Defense The Hon. John White
Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff General John Tilelli (USA, Ret.)
Secretary of Health & Human Services The Hon. Margaret Hamburg
Secretary of State The Hon. Frank Wisner
Attorney General The Hon. George Terwilliger
Director, Federal Emergency Management Agency Mr. Jerome Hauer
Director, Federal Bureau of Investigation The Hon. William Sessions
Governor of Oklahoma The Hon. Frank Keating
Press Secretary, Gov. Frank Keating (OK) Mr. Dan Mahoney
Correspondent, NBC News Mr. Jim Miklaszewski
Pentagon Producer, CBS News Ms. Mary Walsh
Reporter, British Broadcasting Corporation Ms. Sian Edwards
Reporter, The New York Times Ms. Judith Miller
Reporter, Freelance Mr. Lester Reingold

The players were introduced to this crisis during a National Security Council meeting scheduled to address several emerging crises, including the deployment of a carrier task force to the Middle East. At the start of the meeting, the Director of Health and Human Services informed the President of a confirmed case of smallpox in Oklahoma City. Additional smallpox cases were soon identified in Georgia and Pennsylvania. More cases appeared in Oklahoma. The source of the infection was unknown, and exposure was presumed to have taken place at least nine days earlier due to the lengthy incubation period of smallpox. Consequently, exposed individuals had likely traveled far from the loci of what was now presumed to be a biological attack. The exercise spanned 13 days, and served as a vehicle to illustrate the following points.

EXERCISE LEARNING POINTS

1) An attack on the United States with biological weapons could threaten vital national security interests. Massive civilian casualties, breakdown in essential institutions, violation of democratic processes, civil disorder, loss of confidence in government and reduced US strategic flexibility abroad are among the ways a biological attack might compromise US security.

2) Current organizational structures and capabilities are not well suited for the management of a BW attack. Major “fault lines” exist between different levels of government (federal, state, and local), between government and the private sector, among different institutions and agencies, and within the public and private sector. These “disconnects” could impede situational awareness and compromise the ability to limit loss of life, suffering, and economic damage.

3) There is no surge capability in the US health care and public health systems, or the pharmaceutical and vaccine industries. This institutionally limited surge capacity could result in hospitals being overwhelmed and becoming inoperable; could impede public health agencies’ analysis of the scope, source and progress of the epidemic, the ability to educate and reassure the public, and the capacity to limit causalities and the spread of disease.

4) Dealing with the media will be a major, immediate challenge for all levels of government. Information management and communication (e.g., dealing with the press effectively, communication with citizens, maintaining the information flows necessary for command and control at all institutional levels) will be a critical element in crisis/consequence management.

5) Should a contagious bioweapon pathogen be used, containing the spread of disease will present significant ethical, political, cultural, operational and legal challenges.

SMALLPOX, because of its high case-fatality rates and transmissibility, represents one of the most serious biological warfare threats to the civilian population. In 1980, the World Health Assembly announced that smallpox had been eradicated and recommended that all countries cease vaccination. Although labs in two countries still officially store smallpox samples (US and Russia), its re-appearance would almost certainly indicate an intentional outbreak.

Aerosol release of smallpox virus disseminated among a relatively small population could result in a significant epidemic. Evidence suggests the infectious dose is very small. Several factors are cause for concern: the disease has historically been feared as one of the most serious of all pestilential diseases; it is physically disfiguring; it bears a 30 percent case-fatality rate; there is no treatment; it is communicable from person to person. Vaccination ceased in this country in 1972, and vaccination immunity acquired before that time has undoubtedly waned. Prior to eradication, data on smallpox outbreaks in Europe indicated that victims had the potential to infect 10 to 20 others. However, there has never been a smallpox outbreak in such a densely populated, highly mobile, unvaccinated population such as exists today.

In 1947, in response to a single case of smallpox in New York City, 6,350,000 people were immunized (500,000 in one day), including President Harry Truman. In 1972, after disappearing from Yugoslavia for four decades, a single case of smallpox emerged. There are two ways to control a smallpox epidemic – vaccine and isolation. Yugoslavia’s Communist leader, Josip Tito, used both. He instituted a nation-wide quarantine, and immunized the entire country of 20 million people using vaccine supplied by the World Health Organization.

Estimates of the current US supply of smallpox vaccine range from seven to twelve million doses. This stock cannot be immediately replenished, since all vaccine production facilities were dismantled after 1980, and renewed vaccine production is estimated to require at least 24-36 months. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention recently contracted with Acambis Inc. of Cambridge MA to produce 40 million doses of new vaccine. Initial deliveries will not begin before 2004.

“DARK WINTER”was developed and produced by:

The Center for Strategic and International Studies
www.csis.org
Contact: Dr. John Hamre, President & CEO
(202) 775-3227

The Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Studies
www.hopkins-biodefense.org
Contact: Dr. Tara O’Toole, Deputy Director
(410) 223-1667

The ANSER Institute for Homeland Security
www.homelandsecurity.org
Contact: Col. Randy Larsen (Ret.), Director
(703) 416-3597

The Oklahoma City National
Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism

www.mipt.org
Contact: General Dennis J. Reimer (Ret.), Director
(405) 232-5121

EXERCISE OBSERVERS
 
Ms. Ann Beauchesne
Program Director, Emergency Management & Environment
National Governors Association
Ms. Luciana Borio
Assistant
Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Studies
Dr. David Bowen
Congressional Fellow
Office of Senator Edward Kennedy
Maj. Craig Cady
Legislative Fellow
Office of Representative Jim Saxton
Mr. Mike Casey
Legislative Assistant
Office of Representative Vic Snyder
CPT Joni Charme
Deputy Legal Advisor
Joint Task Force Civil Support
Mr. Frank Cilluffo
Deputy Director, Global Organized Crime Project
Center for Strategic & International Studies
Dr. Anthony Cordesman
The Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy
Center for Strategic & International Studies
MG Stephen Cortwright
The Adjutant General
Oklahoma Military Department
Dr. Ruth David
President and CEO
Analytic Services Inc. (ANSER)
Mr. Skip Fischer
Legislative Assistant
Office of Senator Jon Kyl
Mr. Jeffrey Fuller
Manager, Regional Conflict Division
Analytic Services Inc. (ANSER)
Maj. General Gregory Gardner, NGB
Adjutant General and Director of Emergency Management
State of Kansas
Mr. Jim Gass
Oklahoma City National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism
Dr. James Hodge
Project Director - Center for the Law & the Public's Health
Johns Hopkins and Georgetown Universities
Mr. Krister Holladay
Deputy Chief of Staff
Office of Representative Saxby Chambliss
Mr. Michael Hurt
Senior Policy Advisor
Office of Representative Jim Saxton
Mr. Joseph Jakub
Professional Staff Member
House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence
COL Robert Kadlec, MD
Professor of Military Strategy and Operations
National War College
Dr. Lani Kass
Senior Policy Advisor
Strategic Plans and Policy, J-5
Dr. Barry Kellman
Professor
Depaul University School of Law
Ms. Kim Kotlar
Military Legislative Assistant
Office of Representative Mac Thornberry
Mr. Gordon Lederman
Associate
Arnold & Porter
Mr. Jim Lewis
Professional Staff Member
House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence
Dr. Scott Lillibridge
Director, Bioterrorism Preparedness Program
Centers for Disease Control
Mr. Jim Martin
Secretary-Treasurer
NGA-Past Governors Association
Mrs. Barbara Martinez
Chief, WMD Operations Unit
Federal Bureau of Investigation
Mr. Dan McConkie
Staff Assistant to the Vice Chairman
Joint Economic Committee, Joint Committee of Congress
Mr. Alan McCurry
Military Legislative Assistant
Office of Senator Pat Roberts
Ms. Lisa Moreno-Hix
Director of Programs
Oklahoma City National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism
Mr. Bill Natter
Professional Staff Member
House Armed Services Committee
Dr. Paula Olsiewski
Program Director
Alfred P. Sloan Foundation
Mr. R. Nicholas Palarino
Senior Policy Analyst
U.S. House of Representatives Subcommittee on National Security House Committee on Government Reform
Mr. Michael Powers
Research Associate
Chemical & Biological Arms Control Institute
Ms. Linnea Raine
Visiting Department of Energy Fellow
Center for Strategic & International Studies
General Dennis Reimer (USA, Ret.)
Director
Oklahoma City National Memorial Institute for the Prevention of Terrorism
Dr. Peter Roman
Chairman, Department of Political Science at Duquesne University and Senior Fellow at the ANSER
Institute for Homeland Security
Mr. Richard Saunders
Principal
Booz-Allen & Hamilton, Inc.
Dr. Monica Schoch-Spana
Medical Anthropologist & Research Associate
Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Studies
Mr. Danny Seabright
Office of the Under Secretary of
Defense for Policy
Mr. John Sirek
Director, Citizenship Program
Robert R. McCormick Tribune Foundation
Mr. Jeffrey Smith
Partner
Arnold & Porter
Mr. Henry St. Germain
Senior Consultant
Analytic Services Inc. (ANSER)
Col. Stephen Waller, USAF
Director, USAF Surgeon General's Tactical Action Team
HQUSAF/SGT
Dr. Marion Warwick
Medical Epidemiologist Emergency Terrorism Response Unit
Missouri Department of Health
EXERCISE STAFF
 
The Honorable John Hamre
President and CEO
Center for Strategic & International Studies

 
The Honorable Tara O'Toole
Deputy Director
Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Studies
Col. Randall Larsen (USAF, Ret.)
Director, ANSER Institute for Homeland Security
Analytic Services Inc. (ANSER)
 
Ms. Sue Reingold
Visiting National Security Agency Fellow
Center for Strategic & International Studies
Dr. Thomas Inglesby
Senior Fellow
Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Studies
Mr. Michael Mair
Fellow
Johns Hopkins Center for Civilian Biodefense Studies
Ms. Joyce Whiting
ANSER Institute for Homeland Security

Analytic Services Inc. (ANSER)
 
Mr. Mark DeMier
Editor-in-Chief, The Journal of Homeland Security
Analytic Services Inc. (ANSER)
Mr. John Wohlfarth
Research Analyst, ANSER Institute for Homeland Security

Analytic Services Inc. (ANSER)
Mr. Robertson Gile
Research Assistant
Center for Strategic & International Studies

24 posted on 05/08/2003 11:47:45 AM PDT by JudgeAmint (from DA Judge!!)
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