Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

The Clinton Manufacturing Recession - Bush inherited this job-challenged economy.
National Review Online ^ | May 16, 2003 | Greg Kaza

Posted on 05/16/2003 5:10:43 AM PDT by ReleaseTheHounds

Gross Domestic Product has expanded six consecutive quarters and industrial production grew in 2002. But total non-farm payroll employment has declined by 2.1 million jobs since its peak in March 2001, leading critics to pin the decrease on President Bush and to describe the current economic situation as a “jobless recovery.”

But closer examination of the employment data shows that if blame is to be awarded, it should go to ex-President Clinton. The data also reveal the need for the Bush tax cut.

Job losses are concentrated in the economy’s manufacturing private industry sector, which peaked in April 1998 on Clinton’s watch. In the ensuing five years, 2.6 million manufacturing jobs (14 percent) have disappeared.

You can call this the Clinton Manufacturing Recession — and it's the major reason why total non-farm employment has not grown.

The services-producing sector — 82 percent of the economy — has created 353,000 new jobs under President Bush since reaching a trough in December 2001. Job growth is spread across two private-industry sectors: services and the sector that includes finance, insurance, and real estate (FIRE).

The National Bureau of Economic Research, the official arbiter of cyclical turning points, has said the economy reached a peak in March 2001. FIRE employment was 7.6 million in March 2001 and has grown to 7.8 million as of April 2003. Services employment was 41 million in March 2001 and has edged up to 41.4 million as of last month.

Growth in the services sector under President Bush has been greatest in the area of health and education. Gains have also occurred in engineering and management services, a hi-tech component. Government employment, counted in the services-producing sector, has also grown, but the largest gains are in non-federal employment.

Not every services-producing industry sector has grown under President Bush. Declines occurred in retail and wholesale trade, as well as transportation and public utilities. But these drop-offs pale in comparison with the manufacturing job losses that started under Clinton.

Nondurable manufacturing employment peaked at 7.9 million workers in January 1995. Components that peaked under Clinton included: food and kindred products (October 1995); textile mill products (November 1994); printing and publishing (May 1998); and rubber and miscellaneous plastics (February 2000). Many of these jobs were once concentrated in the South.

Durable manufacturing peaked at 11.2 million workers in April 1998. Components that peaked under Clinton included: lumber and wood (February 2000); furniture and fixtures (July 2000); primary metals (January 1998); fabricated metals (July 2000); industrial machinery and equipment (March 1998); electronic and other electrical equipment (November 2000); transportation equipment (October 1998); instruments and related products (March 1998); and miscellaneous manufacturing (April 1998). Some of the largest durables goods employment is in the upper Midwest.

No manufacturing component has peaked under President Bush. Stone, clay, and glass — a durable component — peaked in January 2001, the month Clinton left office. Six other manufacturing components peaked pre-1993.

President Bush inherited an economy on the brink of recession. Employment in the goods-producing sector (manufacturing, construction, mining) and industrial production peaked under Clinton. GDP contracted for three quarters in 2001 but has expanded for six quarters under President Bush. Yet total non-farm employment has not grown due to manufacturing job losses. Far from a “jobless recovery,” the economy is suffering from the Clinton Manufacturing Recession, and is in need of fiscal stimulus.


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Editorial; Government; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: manufacturing
The List of Challenges left by the Clinton Administration is huge: the threat of terrorism; a military that had been budget starved for 8 years; a collapsed bubble stock market which would wipe-out $7 trillion of "paper wealth" of Americans; corporate governance problems of unheard of proportions that would shake investor confidence in American companies and result in pull-backs in investment of unheard of proportions; distrust of the Department of Justice and the Rule of Law (after 8 years of malfeasance); lack of reform of the major social programs (Social Security and Medicare) as they approach their tip-over points where they go monstrously into deficits; etc. etc.

This article properly points out the horrible manufacturing economy Clinton handed over to Bush. This is a huge piece of our employment base and the major reason for the rising unemployment in the past 2 years.

Just add this to the many reasons that it will take DECADES and GENERATIONS to clean the effects of Clintonism out of this great nation and its body politic. This is your Legacy, BUBBA!

1 posted on 05/16/2003 5:10:44 AM PDT by ReleaseTheHounds
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: ReleaseTheHounds
Your comments are as good as the article you posted.

One thing the American electorate had better get wise to is that government creates no jobs except government jobs.

With all levels (city, county, state, federal) of government increasing their taxation to satisfy a natural greed for more staffers and boondoggles I don't see where we really have a chance.

Americans look the other way while all this mugging by government is happening to them. They don't look at the phone and utility bills to see what a chunk is removed by local and federal government, and until they wise up to the ever increasing sales taxes being collected for any expenditure, they'll be in the same boat as California where the base sales tax percentage is going to be 7.5%.

Our levels of elected government work overtime to prove that over the long haul representative government commits suicide when the people have indeed had quite enough.

2 posted on 05/16/2003 5:22:29 AM PDT by LuisBasco
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: LuisBasco
One thing the American electorate had better get wise to is that government creates no jobs except government jobs.

You are basically correct but did not add that the creation of jobs created by the government to the private sector are many, many times more.  Jobs that are created by government regulations, decrees and public services.  Jobs that would  not exist except for the fact that through government regulations and red tape, they exist.  

Just look around and see how many "government made jobs" are in your local area.  These are jobs or businesses either paid directly by government checks (local, state and federal) or are in business soley due to governmental regulations and laws.

It just makes me sick every time I make that assessment!
3 posted on 05/16/2003 5:33:00 AM PDT by DH
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: ReleaseTheHounds
We can piss and moan about how it was all Clinton's fault as much as we want. If the job loss isn't turned around by 2004 then it's Bush that the voters will blame.
4 posted on 05/16/2003 5:40:55 AM PDT by Non-Sequitur
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ReleaseTheHounds
Yeah, yeah, yeah. Clinton was perfect and ... Oh wait, that's the other board.

Here we go. Bush is perfect and can do no wrong. Everything bad is someone else's fault. Everything good is a direct result of our policies. We never make mistakes. Yada, yada, yada.

It gets a little tired.
5 posted on 05/16/2003 5:59:18 AM PDT by KCmark (I am NOT a partisan.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Non-Sequitur
I hate Clinton as much as the next fellow, but this started before even him. GHW Bush was just celebrating the tenth anniversary of SHAFTA, along with a bunch of traitors and thugs.

There's a lot of guilt to go around.
6 posted on 05/16/2003 6:01:03 AM PDT by the gillman@blacklagoon.com
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: LuisBasco
LB: I like your logic and response. Unfortunately, too few Americans have any understanding of how our (or any) economy "works" and how government policy impacts the workings of that economy. Very sad to see the uninformed acceptance by too many of our fellow citizens of "government programs" and "government solutions" to everything when it so often is completely counterproductive and inhibiting on the growth engine of our country.
7 posted on 05/16/2003 6:07:02 AM PDT by ReleaseTheHounds
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Non-Sequitur
If the job loss isn't turned around by 2004 then it's Bush that the voters will blame.

I fear that you are right -- and it reflects (as I said in another reply) how ignorant the American populace is on most things economic.

So while you may be right, I will do all that I can to continue to point to the pile of challenges he inherited -- we should NEVER FORGET... The same way we should NEVER FORGET 9-11. These events (job loss, economic malaise and 9-11) are connected and both were inherited from Bubba -- one of, if not THE worst president in the past 100 years.

8 posted on 05/16/2003 6:11:04 AM PDT by ReleaseTheHounds
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: ReleaseTheHounds
This article is a second-rate piece of writing. I can't understand why NRO would publish an article about the "Clinton Manufacturing Recession" that didn't include even a cursory examination of why manufacturing in the U.S. is in such bad shape.
9 posted on 05/16/2003 6:14:04 AM PDT by Alberta's Child
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: KCmark
Here we go. Bush is perfect and can do no wrong. Everything bad is someone else's fault. Everything good is a direct result of our policies. We never make mistakes. Yada, yada, yada. It gets a little tired.

Gee, I'm sorry if you're a little tired... Bush has made plenty of mistakes (first Treasury Secretary, accepting phase-in of tax-rate cuts, protection of steel industry, stupid Farm Bill, less than vigorous reaction to scandals in Corporate America) but he inherited the worst collection of problems and challenges of any president since Reagan (the Carter fiasco) and when you throw in the challenges of Terrorism and North Korea, perhaps this is even more challenging.

It's "tired" people like you who succumb to the stupid entreaties of Democrat programs to address our every problem. If you spent a bit of energy supporting the people who want to get the government

off your back and out of your wallet you might be surprised how much better things might be in the long term (even intermediate term). Even I will grant you: we're not going to see a turn-around immediately.

10 posted on 05/16/2003 6:17:24 AM PDT by ReleaseTheHounds
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: ReleaseTheHounds
That "largest retroactive tax increase in this nation's history" that algore cast the affirming vote for can itself be the fundamental cause for constricting this nation's economy.

That piece of legislation which the liars still hail for the grand economy of the 90's set things in motion.

What held things together was the Republican House holding the reins, keeping the liars from causing a complete collapse.

Clintons cooked government books and their Wall Street cohorts cooked theirs. The way things have unfolded one can only imagine what algore and the Clintons had planned for us had algore stole that election.
11 posted on 05/16/2003 6:22:31 AM PDT by Just mythoughts
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ReleaseTheHounds
I believe some of the stock market woes began when klowtoon's goons went after legal industries. Like MicroSoft and the tobacco industry. Investors get spooked when the government starts witchhunting legal industries, pillages billions out of them through direct payment to trial lawywers or by shaking investor confidence. Then the klowntonians stand back and blame the inheritors of the mess. Kind of makes you wonder if it isn't a "vast left wing conspiracy".
12 posted on 05/16/2003 6:34:11 AM PDT by rootntootn
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Non-Sequitur
It is true that the current problems are
a result of Clintons policies and in fact
the real results of his policies has yet
to bear fruit-the worst is yet to come!
However, Bush is in pratice following
the same policies as Clinton.
13 posted on 05/16/2003 6:35:42 AM PDT by Princeliberty
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Just mythoughts
JMT: Great thoughts and right on the mark. The economy was expanding at >4% rate in the 4th Qtr. of 1992 (Clinton claimed: people were anticipating my election and policies) in full recovery from the mild recession caused, in large measure, by Bush's tax increase... So the recovery was stunted in large measure by Clinton's retroactive tax increase -- and tax revenues from the upper income classes that Clinton targeted DID NOT materialize for, I think, the first 2 years of the tax being in effect.

The thing that bailed out Bubba's *ss was the collapse in energy prices (in effect this was a major offset for the economy, businesses and consumers compensating for Bubba's tax increase) and the benefits of NAFTA (the only smart thing Bubba did in his first administration). On the deficit front, he benefited from the S&L crisis being essentially cleaned up under Bush (that was adding tens of billions to the annual deficit -- this disappeared after 1992 and actually turned into a surplus as the Resolution Trust Co. spun out reformed S&Ls). And you are right: the GOP takeover in 1994 brought spending discipline that the Demos never planned on (plus some tax cuts and importantly the capital gains tax cut in 1998, I believe).

It gets tiresome, but we have to keep repeating the TRUTH about that awful period known as the Clinton Administration.

14 posted on 05/16/2003 6:36:39 AM PDT by ReleaseTheHounds
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

To: ReleaseTheHounds
I need help. But I think the whole economy started downward under Clinton's attack on Microsoft. Does anyone agree?
15 posted on 05/16/2003 6:36:43 AM PDT by Squat
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ReleaseTheHounds
Remember in that collapse of the oil prices, bjclinton was calling for a $25.00 a barrel price of oil, the Russians were having a really hard time coming up with cash when the price of oil fell.

It would not surprise me if that was about that time the UN RIP OFF of "Oil for Food" program, created a blackmarket economy for those who opposed removing Saddam.
16 posted on 05/16/2003 6:45:49 AM PDT by Just mythoughts
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

To: Squat
The STOCK MARKET collapse began in March 2000 -- it specifically started the day that Clinton and Tony Blair got together and said that the promised discoveries related to the human genome and biotech advances "were too important" to the world and that any patents should be "shared with the world." That wacked the entire biotech industry and raised questions about that value of intellectual property in all industries.

The assault on Microsoft had started a year or two earlier, but the rulings on Microsoft were coming to a head later that spring. The CONTEMPT of Joel Klein and Janet Reno for Microsoft and virtually ALL PRIVATE INDUSTRY was just stunning and, I believe, chilling to investors and business leaders.

The refusal to allow Worldcom and Sprint combine (yes, it would have been a horrible combination, in retrospect, but that wasn't the reason the Justice Department didn't allow the combination) was another terrible signal that discouraged investors.

All of these things, along with the internet/technology bubble, led to the wipe-out of $7 trillion of investor "wealth" (or perceived wealth). Sorry to disagree with people who don't buy into a "wealth-effect" on our economy: you don't have $7 trillion evaporate and not have a significant impact on the economy or growth.

17 posted on 05/16/2003 6:46:12 AM PDT by ReleaseTheHounds
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: rootntootn
Your points were also right on the mark... I responded to someone else's point on the witch-hunt vs. Microsoft... That was just the tip of the iceberg... I'll never forget the "sh*t-eating grin" on Joel Klein's mug when the rulings against Microsoft were being announced... I wanted to stuff that mug up Bubba's... well you get my drift.
18 posted on 05/16/2003 6:49:48 AM PDT by ReleaseTheHounds
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: the gillman@blacklagoon.com
Yeah; the article VERY carefully avoided mention of NAFTA and the WTO crap which Gingrich and Clinton stuffed down our throats.

Gingrich/Clinton "Free Trade" is great--if you are in the manufacturing sector OUTSIDE the USA.

Next big problem: the steel giants of the US will toss their un-funded pension liabilities into the Gummint's lap. They can't afford the payments.
19 posted on 05/16/2003 6:53:18 AM PDT by ninenot (Joe McCarthy was RIGHT, but Drank Too Much)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: ReleaseTheHounds
The STOCK MARKET collapse began in March 2000 --

Most of the carnage took place before President Bush came into office in late January, 2001.

20 posted on 05/16/2003 7:22:56 AM PDT by Gritty
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

Comment #21 Removed by Moderator

To: ninenot
Well the trouble with "free trade" and open immigration is that both parties are on the same side.

In a two party system, if a problem can't be blamed on the other party, then it isn't considered a problem.
22 posted on 05/16/2003 12:11:43 PM PDT by Maximum Leader (run from a knife, close on a gun)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: Princeliberty
It is true that the current problems are a result of Clintons policies and in fact the real results of his policies has yet to bear fruit-the worst is yet to come! However, Bush is in pratice following the same policies as Clinton.

And those policies started before Clinton. Ross Perot was debating them in 1992.

23 posted on 05/16/2003 7:04:13 PM PDT by A. Pole
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: A. Pole
Yes Bush, as in the current form of the policies.

You had some things like border with Mexico not
being properly controlled never been so open
as it began to be under Bush Sr.
Further, some of the things like trade
with China began because of the cold war,
but rather than end them when the cold war ended
they were changed into an effort to support
Big Business and Globalism at the expense of
US national interests.
Starting with Bush Sr. and continued by
Clinton and Bush Jr. the US has never before been
governed by policies that have so little concern
for the welfare of the United States.
24 posted on 05/17/2003 5:53:09 AM PDT by Princeliberty
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: ReleaseTheHounds
bump
25 posted on 05/17/2003 5:56:51 AM PDT by Freee-dame
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Maximum Leader
In a two party system, if a problem can't be blamed on the other party, then it isn't considered a problem.

It is not so hard to blame on the other party anyway. People have short memory.

26 posted on 05/17/2003 6:02:39 AM PDT by A. Pole
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 22 | View Replies]

To: Squat
I think the whole economy started downward under Clinton's attack on Microsoft.

I noticed that as well but no one has ever agreed with me when I have mentioned it. They couldn't connect any dots.

27 posted on 05/17/2003 6:10:37 AM PDT by arasina (Imagine an entire herd of Daschles. Whining weiner dogs!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: ReleaseTheHounds
Bush is to blame. Bush could create over one million american jobs in one day, if he suspended the H1-B and L-1 visa programs. Bush could also propose legislation to end outsourcing, or tax it, and end tax benefits of companies who replace american factories with foreign ones. If Bush did not support the elimination of american jobs, he would have done something about it, it is so easy to do.
28 posted on 05/22/2003 6:07:57 AM PDT by waterstraat
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: ReleaseTheHounds
THANK GOD FOR NAFTA, A GOAL OF CLINTON AND REPUBLICANS...CORPORATIONS FOLLOW CHEAP LABOR....
29 posted on 05/22/2003 6:26:18 AM PDT by Bill Davis FR
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson