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Why Hillary WON'T run for re-election in 2006.......and a few other special surprise predictions....
one man's opinion.....

Posted on 06/19/2003 9:26:23 AM PDT by ken5050

Among the millions of words of pure unadulterated garbage written lately about all things Clintonian, it's very hard to find anything close to the truth, but in assessing Hillary's political strategy, as she pursues her goal of the WH in 2008, it is hard to come to any conclusion except that she will NOT run for re-election to the Senate in 2006, and there's a good chance that she might even resign from the Senate before that. So, for political insight that makes more sense than anything Dick Morris has every written, and better predictions than any astrologer, read on....


TOPICS: Front Page News; Your Opinion/Questions
KEYWORDS: 2004; 2006; 2008
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It's actually not hard to reach my conclusion..

First, as a caveat, I should state that prior to 9/ll, I was firmly convinced that she was going to run in 2004. It made sense, but President Bush's popularity caused Hillary to abandon that strategy, and focus on 2008. Now, consider....

1. President Bush will win re-election by a near-landslide in 2004, and the GOP will increase its majority in the House, and might well add 5+ senators. The Dem party is going to be interrible shape, but above all, the day after election day 2004, the press is going to begin its focus on the 2008 election. We will finally be in the 4 year, 24/7 presidential election cycle.

2. At the same time that Hillary is asked about running in 2008...she'll also be asked about running for her Senate seat in 2006, and will she pledge to serve out her term? An uncomfortable question, at best, for her..

At the same time, youi'll start to hear a little grumbling among Dems that just perhaps Bill isn't the fair-haired boy of the Dems after all,( this after he holds a press conference to explain what the dems did wrong in the 2004 election.) and maybe a little more salacious news of Bill's meanderings starts to surface. It'll be harder for Hillary to maintain the sham that theirs is a marriage.

3. Being in the Senate minority isn't fun, and now Hillary will be in an even more visible position. If she runs in 2006..there's always a chance that someone like Rudy could decide to jump in against her, and a loss means she's finished. Even more likely, the GOP runs a much lesser candidate, but Hillary's negtives start to surface upstate, and she wins a modest victory. Against a no-name candidate, in a liberal Dem state like NY, that's an even greater sign of weakness. There would be a huge expectation of a big win. It would finish her.

If you look at if logically, she gains nothing from running for re-election, and can only lose something by doing so. So, as is the pattern for Hillary, she won't run, but..but..here's the but..she needs a reason.....and his name is B-I-L-L..

4. Hillary's always done best when she plays the sympathy card....the injured person..she's done it so many times, it's not necessary to reitierate them here, but look for Hillary to toss Bill out for philandering sometime in 2005....and remember, she actually laid the predicate for doing so at the end of her interview with Barbara Walters.

So, she'll need time to heal, to repair her personal life, ( go ahead, you can write the headlines ) and thus she'll announce that she won't run again in 2006. Indeed, if it polls well, she might even resign from the Senate before finishing out her term..to re-institute her "zone of privacy"...as she goes through the "painful" process of divorce.....and remember the added bonus of divorcing Bill..she won't have to include his financial info on all those presidential candidate disclosure forms, let alone file a joint tax return..

She'll escape any political hit from this, because with the GOP now holding a large majority in the Senate, the loss of her seat temporarily to the GOP..as Pataki appoints a Republican, won't matter....and NY State Dems will be thrilled, as several of them maneuver to try and take the seat in 2006...and of course, Chuckie Schumer will be OVERJOYED that Hillary is out of the Senate, so he'll no doubt be very supportive..

5. OK, so to recap...she's tossed out Bill fro screwing around, and resigned her Senate seat, all this sometime in 2005. The media circus is huge...all of which is good for Hillary. The drumbeat for 2008 swells...there's no one else on the Dem side, and all she needs to do is to start to "re-enter" public life, putting on a brave face to the world. And how best to do this, you ask?..why, that's easy....adopt a new role, the ultimate warm-fuzzy-image....the "mother of the bride"...that's right, boy's and girls....look for Chelsea to get engaged in 2005, with a June 2006 wedding....and Hillary throwing herself into the whirlwind of planning for it....imagine all the covers on Bride, People, et al, and of course the overarching question...how will she deal with Bill, the ex-president, ex-husband, at the wedding? I mean, when the bride's parents have their dance....can you just die?..and will Bill come stag, of bring his squeeze du-jour? It boggles the mind......go ahead, just think about it..

6. OK, now, after the 2006 elections are over, Hillary announces that in response to calls from people all over the country, and of her fellow Democrats begging here to rescue the party, she embarks on a nation-wide "listening tour" to see if she should seek the nomination....ad nauseum...and inevitable.

7. Of course, being Hillary, they'll have to be an added twist or two, to our plot, all designed to keep the public involved, enthralled, and engrossed with Hillary, all without focusing on her politics, but designed to maximize her symapthy factor. My two choices...and again, they seem obvious...

a. Will she drop the "Clinton" and revert back to Rodham?..Can you imagine the endless discussion on this alone? "The View" and "Oprah" will devote several shows to it...and heck, maybe an internet poll as well...

b. Hillary will of course need one, of more, suitable escorts to all the functions of the campaign...will she start dating?..who's suitable?....but again, the stories, the publicity...it's a flack's wet dream......and BTW, all of you who think Ted Turner..forget him...for two reasons...first he's way to poor now, thanks to collapse of AOL/TW, and besides, all those inevitable comparisons between Hillary and Jane Fonda....well, Leno would have a ball with that. Actually, it's pretty obvious....in 06, her new beaux will be the soon-to be ex-mayor of NYC, Mike Bloomberg.

First, he's got the bucks to support her lifestyle, and even finance her whole presidential campaign....and second..she'll get lots of props for bringing him back to the Democrat party.

OK....that's my take....but as you flame away, ask yourself, seriously, where I'm wrong in my logic...

1 posted on 06/19/2003 9:26:23 AM PDT by ken5050
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To: PhiKapMom; Howlin; Ragtime Cowgirl
FYI
2 posted on 06/19/2003 9:27:05 AM PDT by ken5050
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To: Miss Marple; JohnHuang2
FYI...
3 posted on 06/19/2003 9:28:20 AM PDT by ken5050
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To: ken5050
Man, I just ate lunch!
4 posted on 06/19/2003 9:28:53 AM PDT by GodBlessRonaldReagan (where is Count Petofi when we need him most?)
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To: ken5050
No flame from me. It sounds plausible and we are talking about a clinton, which makes all nasties a possibility.
5 posted on 06/19/2003 9:31:28 AM PDT by b4its2late (The Road Map to Peace is looking more like a "Road Map to Pieces".)
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To: ken5050
Except for 7b, it's a pretty realistic, if not a downright frightening scenario! The scary thing is that I can see it playing out that way
6 posted on 06/19/2003 9:32:43 AM PDT by aegiscg47
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To: ken5050
It always risky to make predictions ...... especially about the future!
7 posted on 06/19/2003 9:33:43 AM PDT by Rummyfan
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To: Rummyfan
Bookmark this thread....I'll be famous...
8 posted on 06/19/2003 9:34:06 AM PDT by ken5050
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To: ken5050
I have one problem with this; since her "I didn't know" routine really isn't getting traction with many people, if he does it again -- and you KNOW he will -- she may just be preceived as 1)dumber than a post, or 2) an enabler.

and since she's just told us that everything is wonderful with their marriage, I'm not sure the sympathy card will play again for her.
9 posted on 06/19/2003 9:34:50 AM PDT by Howlin
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To: Howlin
She didn't really say everything was fabulous....she said they were "working on it"..couples who go to therapy, and where one wants to wring the other's neck..well...theur'e now not "fabulous"....and all the fluff..for want of a better word...well, it would drown out all her material ommissions of the past....Yes, some of it was tongue in cheek..though easy to create..but my key point is that I don't see what she gains by running again in 2006?
10 posted on 06/19/2003 9:38:17 AM PDT by ken5050
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To: ken5050
I'm betting she will not run because of intestinal parasites.
11 posted on 06/19/2003 9:38:36 AM PDT by DPB101
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To: ken5050
What's wrong is that Bill Clinton is a political asset in the Democrap Party. Until someone wins the WH from the Democrap Party again, Bill Clinton will still be the big dog. It doesn't matter what the party people want, the Democrap voters like him and respect him because he is the only living Democrap to win re-election to the WH and the last Democrap president.

Hillary will not divorce Bill.
12 posted on 06/19/2003 9:40:00 AM PDT by GraniteStateConservative (Putting government in charge of morality is like putting pedophiles in charge of children.)
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To: Froggie; aristeides; areafiftyone; Paleo Conservative; jackbill; babaloo
An interesting twist to the potential Hillary-Condi showdown in '08 that we were discussing.
13 posted on 06/19/2003 9:42:08 AM PDT by MattinNJ
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To: ken5050
Bookmarked that you're correct about a lot of this.
14 posted on 06/19/2003 9:42:19 AM PDT by Peach
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To: ken5050
Good ideas. Of course, I'd think so, because this is what what I've been predicting for years.

The wedding would be better timed for 2007.
15 posted on 06/19/2003 9:42:37 AM PDT by hocndoc (Choice is the # 1 killer in the US.)
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To: ken5050
The only flaw I see is that there's no way she and Bubba will get divorced until the statute of limitations runs out on all of their crimes, so that neither can be forced to testify against the other.
16 posted on 06/19/2003 9:43:36 AM PDT by kevkrom (Dump the income tax -- support an NRST!)
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To: hocndoc
Originally, before 9/ll, when she was going to run in 04, I predicted that Chelsea would get engaged in 2003, and thus the stories about how she'd just "love to get married in the WH" would be all over the place...
17 posted on 06/19/2003 9:44:58 AM PDT by ken5050
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To: ken5050
Neither do I -- because she will be asked about it repeatedly.
18 posted on 06/19/2003 9:44:59 AM PDT by Howlin
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To: kevkrom
The OIC signed off on everything...they've got a pass on that...
19 posted on 06/19/2003 9:45:48 AM PDT by ken5050
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To: ken5050
You left out only one part:

Sometime in 2007 Bill Clinton will do an interview, and admit that he still loves Hillary, and wants to see her win the election. She calls and asks him for advice. They later announce that dispite their divorce, they will work together "for the good of the nation" to see that she is elected.

After a month or two; Hillary and Bill will reconcile and announce that they are going to remarry after the election win or lose. The (stupid) women of America will start the bandwagon for a 'WHITE HOUSE HONEYMOON'.

The liberals will eat it up, along with the Media.
20 posted on 06/19/2003 9:47:05 AM PDT by Pukin Dog (Sans Reproache)
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To: ken5050
It's going to be interesting to see in a couple of years whether all these people who claimed or are still claiming that Hillary is going to run in 2004 will stick their hands up and say, "I was wrong".

I can't comment on your logic because there's precious little in here. It's mostly pure conjecture.

Here's my guess, based on Hillary not doing anything too particularly revolutionary:

1) She stays in the Senate until at least the end of her term (2006) because being an incumbent, no matter what the terms, beats not being in office.

2) She doesn't boot Bill out of the house. CAVEAT: unless he's caught literally with his pants down (I'm not talking shots of him escorting some babe somewhere, I'm talking shots of him with said babe when she's topless, DNA evidence from another dress, etc.). Then she'll dump him, otherwise not. The suffering wife plays well, and that's where she's at now. But another one makes her the stupid wife, and that's when he's out.

3) It's a long way from November, and the economy still sucks. Too many people have either had their salaries frozen or cut, or have lost a job and gotten a worse-paying one. People are NOT happy about this. Say what you will about Clinton, but he didn't get elected twice because he didn't understand elections. "It's the economy, stupid" beat Bush-x41 and it *MAY* beat Bush-x43. So, the pickup in the Senate could happen, but don't count on it, even given the current balance on which party has who up for re-election this cycle.

4) Adoption of "Mother of the Bride" requires the cooperation of Chelsea's love life. A bit much to presume, that Chelsea will arrange her marriage and her wedding for her mother's political career.

5) Hillary could get away with running in 2006 without pledging to finish her term. It's happened in NY State before, it can happen again.
21 posted on 06/19/2003 9:47:09 AM PDT by RonF
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To: ken5050
She will Run and retain her seat in '06.


She will also hedge on the serve out question, pointing to the fact that she made the pledge in '00 and served it out.


However, Running in '06 will keep her campaign apparatus Up, Running, Lean, and in fighting shape, They will just continue to campaign, switching from Senator, to Presidential mode.

Bill, is always a Plus never a minus. You are omitting the fact that the media gives them a pass on anything embarassing, until it is too big to ignore...(Remember, the Enquirere BROKE gennifer Flowers.. then they had to pay attention, prior to that Gerry Brown was shouting it from the rooftops...) They will play off Bills tenure (8 years peace and prosperity yada yada yada...) and ignore any quizzing that tells the actual truth...


Plus, as you say, she works best as the aggrieved victim....Where can she play that Role better, than IN the well of the Senate, as the Conservative majority expands....(and on this point, my advice is, if we get close to supermajority in 04, buy many barf bags, because it is going to get nasty....)

That will afford her the Opportunity to shore up her Leftist base, BEFORE the primaries, so they will be on board, and she can run the primaries closer to the center, Setting Up the actual Campaign.


The thing she fears the Most, Is Condoleeeza Rice. A Black woman, 1000 times smarter than she is, and 10000 times more personable, with National Security Credentials .....Drudge said the word is they have accumulated quite the oppo file on The good Dr.....Why do you think that is?
22 posted on 06/19/2003 9:47:42 AM PDT by hobbes1 ( Hobbes1TheOmniscient® "I know everything so you don't have to" ;)
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To: ken5050
It's pretty hard to predict what a phony liar will do, except one thing is sure, a liar will keep on lying.

Hillary Rotten is a phony liar.

23 posted on 06/19/2003 9:48:10 AM PDT by Reagan Man
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To: ken5050
Unless Bloomberg has suddenly gone blind, deaf and lost his sense of smell he won't get close to this skank.
24 posted on 06/19/2003 9:48:53 AM PDT by justshutupandtakeit (RATS will use any means to denigrate George Bush's Victory.)
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To: Pukin Dog
OMG.
25 posted on 06/19/2003 9:48:53 AM PDT by Howlin
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To: ken5050
You left out a very important angle to this.

Item #4.5 -- After Hillary divorces Bill, it is revealed that Chelsea is actually the child of Web Hubbell, not Bill.

Item #5 -- The 2006 wedding you describe will involve Chelsea Rodham getting married to Bill Clinton. In an attempt to generate as much publicity as possible, the wedding is held on the Jerry Springer Show, in an episode titled "Demented, F#cked-Up People, the Likes of Which You've Never Seen Before."

26 posted on 06/19/2003 9:50:49 AM PDT by Alberta's Child
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To: ken5050
her new beaux will be the soon-to be ex-mayor of NYC, Mike Bloomberg.

Although I think the two deserve each other, I doubt Mike would be interested in her.

I think she would pick a much older, fatherly like figure.

27 posted on 06/19/2003 9:51:11 AM PDT by katnip
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To: ken5050
Sounds very plausible. Bookmarked for future reference.

You do know that if you are wrong, I will taunt you.

How do you think the RedSox will do this year?

28 posted on 06/19/2003 9:51:29 AM PDT by Joe Driscoll
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To: ken5050
I was with you until:

her new beaux will be the soon-to be ex-mayor of NYC, Mike Bloomberg.

That was a speed bump at 100 mph.
Who ever he is, he will have to be gay and/or blind.

CB^)

29 posted on 06/19/2003 9:51:37 AM PDT by Cyber Ninja (His legacy is a stain on the dress.)
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To: ken5050
Oh BARFarama! I am going to lunch now but feel reaaaaaaaaly queasy!!!
30 posted on 06/19/2003 9:52:04 AM PDT by areafiftyone (The U.N. needs a good Flush!)
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To: kevkrom
Given the reason why spousal privilege exists, does it expire in the case of a divorce? Kind of like if you have a lawyer, and then fire them, doesn't lawyer-client privilege still apply?
31 posted on 06/19/2003 9:52:15 AM PDT by RonF
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To: OnTheDress
Who ever he is, he will have to be gay and/or blind.

Interesting that you should mention that . . .

32 posted on 06/19/2003 9:52:49 AM PDT by Alberta's Child
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To: Alberta's Child
Do you think he is too??
33 posted on 06/19/2003 9:54:01 AM PDT by katnip
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To: ken5050
I am bookmarking this one! Except for Bloomberg, I can see her trying it.

She has one big major problem -- flyover country doesn't just dislike her -- they loathe her!

That said, believe she can get the RAT nomination in 2008 if something else doesn't knock her out. Her problem is getting elected with all the negatives! Heck with Bill, he might decide to tank her if she divorces him!

Interesting scenario and very plausible -- Bill is the wild card in all of this IMHO!
34 posted on 06/19/2003 9:54:41 AM PDT by PhiKapMom (Bush Cheney '04 - VICTORY IN '04 -- $4 for '04 - www.GeorgeWBush.com/donate/)
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To: katnip
He's a deranged little bastard, which could mean anything. There has always been some quiet speculation that Bloomberg, uh, "bats lefty."
35 posted on 06/19/2003 9:55:18 AM PDT by Alberta's Child
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To: ken5050
look for Chelsea to get engaged in 2005, with a June 2006 wedding

Rumor has it that she would already be engaged except that she cannot make up her mind between brithers Jim and Joe Hogsnout.


36 posted on 06/19/2003 9:55:45 AM PDT by Blood of Tyrants (Even if the government took all your earnings, you wouldn’t be, in its eyes, a slave.)
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To: Alberta's Child
He's a deranged little bastard

LOL - that discribes him perfectly!!

37 posted on 06/19/2003 9:56:06 AM PDT by areafiftyone (The U.N. needs a good Flush!)
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To: Pukin Dog
Good one. 'WHITE HOUSE HONEYMOON'

If the White House is a rock'in, don't come a knock'in.

CB^)

38 posted on 06/19/2003 9:56:31 AM PDT by Cyber Ninja (His legacy is a stain on the dress.)
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To: ken5050
My .02. The strongest reason FOR Hillary! to run for re-election to the Senate in '06 is formidable power that victory will give her: she will be the two-time Senator from New York, and that will mean that she is a winner (even over Rudy) and that will give her enormous influence over swing voters. By then (early '07), her scandal-ridden past will be so much old news.
39 posted on 06/19/2003 9:56:36 AM PDT by Remole
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To: Howlin
Scary, aint it?
40 posted on 06/19/2003 9:56:50 AM PDT by Pukin Dog (Sans Reproache)
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To: ken5050
Hillary will annouce she is getting divorced in 2006, which opens her up for a Presidential run in 2008- and counting on all the sympathy votes.
41 posted on 06/19/2003 9:57:53 AM PDT by rintense (Thank you to all our brave soldiers, past and present, for your faithful service to our country.)
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To: OnTheDress
The vision of those two rutting like pigs just ruined my breakfast. Soooooooey!!!
42 posted on 06/19/2003 9:57:55 AM PDT by Pukin Dog (Sans Reproache)
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To: DPB101
LOL How do you know about internal parasites? Are you her caterer?
43 posted on 06/19/2003 9:58:25 AM PDT by Ditter
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To: ken5050
I wuz gonna flame the hell outta ya.

Then I read it.

It makes sense.

44 posted on 06/19/2003 9:59:08 AM PDT by Lazamataz (PROUDLY POSTING WITHOUT READING THE ARTICLE SINCE 1999!)
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To: Pukin Dog
OMG.....The horror.....the horror.....
45 posted on 06/19/2003 10:00:37 AM PDT by hobbes1 ( Hobbes1TheOmniscient® "I know everything so you don't have to" ;)
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To: ken5050
I don't think she can wait til 08. She gets uglier every day.

04 is her one and only shot.
She can still manipulate most of the media, a power which is dwindling as rapidly as her (fairly)good looks.
As she gets older, uglier and ever more shrill, her media allies will get weaker and and ever more irrelevent.

There's still plenty that can go wrong for America between now and next year, and she and her harpies will do all they can to make things go wrong.
46 posted on 06/19/2003 10:06:09 AM PDT by the gillman@blacklagoon.com
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To: hobbes1; Pukin Dog
The sight of it would be like staring into the noonday sun; it would fry your retina!

CB^)
47 posted on 06/19/2003 10:08:50 AM PDT by Cyber Ninja (His legacy is a stain on the dress.)
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To: ken5050
What about the contentions raised that should Hillary ever divorce Bill they will BOTH lose the "marriage protection" about testifying against each other, should that EVER become a reality?
48 posted on 06/19/2003 10:09:33 AM PDT by justshe (Educate....not Denigrate !)
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To: ken5050
Nevermind.....saw your answer further down the thread. "VIEW REPLIES" is our friend. Duh.
49 posted on 06/19/2003 10:11:07 AM PDT by justshe (Educate....not Denigrate !)
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To: ken5050
no none of this will happen.

whilst on her booktour in Naw Orleans, Hillary! will choke on a catfish bone.

^___^

50 posted on 06/19/2003 10:11:18 AM PDT by Gasshog (eyes open, mouth too! tough!)
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