Bush's Hispanic strategy comes unraveled. (A Look Back on the Failed History of Hispandering)

The National Review ^ | April 8, 2002 | John O’Sullivan

[Pubbie]

"the House decision — in which the Republican leadership averted defeat by a single vote — established that the White House no longer has the Re publican votes to push through its larger plans to amnesty 3 million illegal Mexican "guestworkers" as a favor to Mexico's President Fox."

Some people didn't believe me when I said the House GOP was ready to rebel against Karlos Rova's amnesty plan in August 2001.

But this article clearly shows the majority of elected Republicans know damn well that Hispanics, particularly Mexicans, will never vote GOP.

Fortunately it's not too late for the GOP to save itself by changing Legal hispanic immigration.

[NewRomeTacitus]

If the US government granted blanket amnesty chaos would ensue due to the sheer, overwhelming numbers of illegal aliens. Local and Federal bureaucracies would be forced to expand just to process them all. Wouldn't that be great for California's budget?

[NewRomeTacitus]

If the US government granted blanket amnesty chaos would ensue due to the sheer, overwhelming numbers of illegal aliens. Local and Federal bureaucracies would be forced to expand just to process them all. Wouldn't that be great for California's budget?

[Pubbie]

"Wouldn't that be great for California's budget?"

What!?

Don't you know that NO ECONOMY ON EARTH can survive without BILLIONs of Illegal Mexicans "doing the jobs Americans won't do"?!

Can't you see how all those illegals have caused an economic boom in California!?

[gubamyster]

ping

[Cyber Liberty]

I think O'Sullivan's right. We should restrict the Conservative movement to white guys. Screw trying to get anybody else in, let's just figure out how to keep "them" from voting.

< /sarcasm > (for those of you not-too-brights out there)

Geesh. People read O'Sullivan and assume we're a bunch of crackers.

[The Iguana]

Well - what a depressing article.

[Diddle E. Squat]

A rather pathetic spin attempt. This article is very outdated, Sanchez got his butt whipped in the election by Republican Rick Perry, despite Perry being, um, less than charismatic(to be charitable). Kinda silly to conclude that Dems won't go GOP by analyzing a DEMOCRAT primary.

Tancredo types might have a measure of credibility if they stuck to facts and didn't stoop to obvious exaggerations and fear mongering.

[JohnnyZ]

But this article clearly shows the majority of elected Republicans know damn well that Hispanics, particularly Mexicans, will never vote GOP.

Of course not. Because their skin is not white. The Republican Party is only for white people with white hoods, and it's time we all faced up to that fact /sarcasm

[KellyAdmirer]

Because Hispanic voters lean to the Democrats on economic and social grounds, the GOP would have to change almost all its policies (on taxes, welfare, regulation, labor law) to have any hope of attracting Hispanic crossovers in the long term.

One could say pretty much the same thing about Jewish, Black, feminist, gay voters. Maybe true, maybe not, but either way a depressing way to look at it.

[Pubbie]

"Sanchez got his butt whipped in the election by Republican Rick Perry, despite Perry being, um, less than charismatic(to be charitable)."

Perry only got 35% of the Hispanic vote, despite the fact that the Mexicans in Texas are from the (Limited) parts of Mexico that vote the most heavily conservative in Mexican elections.

In California, the GOP only got 25 of the Hispanic vote.

[TLBSHOW]

But unless the Bush administration wakes up to the electoral impact of continuing immigration, the most the GOP can hope for is to slow the pace of its decline.

..........

[Pubbie]

"The Republican Party is only for white people with white hoods, and it's time we all faced up to that fact /sarcasm"

The GOP is for (the moment) Conservatives ie people who want limited government, family values, restrictions on abortion, anti-affirmative action etc etc.

The problem is that Most of the Mexicans coming into the US are from the parts of Mexico that vote the most heavily SOCIALIST in Mexican elections.

[DoughtyOne]

I believe that what Sullivan documents is that no matter what Bush, you, I or anyone else wishes, the fact is that hispanics will vote Democrat. If that doesn't concern you, then by all means support more of them pouring across our border.

The idea that Bush is going to build support within that community by expressing concern for hispanics and granting legalization of more Mexican immigrants, makes three very classic mistakes.

1. You can't out-pander the Democrats
2. US citizens of Mexican decent have the most to fear from massive numbers of unskilled labor showing up here
3. US citizens of Mexican decent generally respect the laws on our books. If a leader doesn't, why should they vote for him?

[The Iguana]

Sullivan may be a little too deterministic.

But if we adjust the formulation to say: Hispanics have a strong tendency toward economic progressivism which trumps their social conservatism - for the first few generations.

Italians and Irish were solid Democrats as well for the first few generations.

The problem is that Bush and Rove probably aren't keen on waiting thirty or fifty or eighty years for the generational patterns to start favoring them.

Either way the short term prospects seem a bit bleak. Perhaps all Bush can do is push Hispanic apointments, aggressively politic in hispanic communities and push local hispanic candidates and count yourself lucky to get 40% of the hispanic vote - and crack down on immigration.

[Diddle E. Squat]

And what percent of Hispanic votes will the GOP get if it adopts the Tancredo strategy of not so subtle denigration and a cold war against Hispanics? One can be for sensible immigration reforms without the vitriolic tone. "Irish need not apply" is not a brilliant election strategy for conservatism.

[junta]

The only two things keeping Bush as the favorite, one is the histrionics over terrorism keeps his white base in line, and second, Democratic ineptness at overcoming Rove's triangulation strategies. If Rove is successful then Bush wins over a demo stiff because the only thing the Dems have now is race hatred because Bush has done a Pataki and taken the left's issues for his own. My guess is that the Dems capitualate because if they go for the race hatred angle they are pretty close to bringing catastrophe upon this country.

[Reaganwuzthebest]

If the US government granted blanket amnesty chaos would ensue due to the sheer, overwhelming numbers of illegal aliens.

That doesn't even include the legal immigrants the amnestied would bring in through the family chain. It is estimated that could be as many 27 million from Mexico alone. And since 65 to 75% of Mexicans lean democratic, the Republicans as a party would be history.

[Pubbie]

"the Tancredo strategy of not so subtle denigration and a cold war against Hispanics?"

It's not Tancredo's fault that Mexicans are socialists.

If the government keeps bringing them in we are going to ensure an era of Democratic domination.

But as I say, changing Immigration policies can mitigate much of this problem for the GOP

[DoughtyOne]

Why is it that you and others on this forum turn this into an issue of race at every opportunity? I have "NEVER" met and discussed this issue with a hispanic who thought we were anything other than the biggest fools of all time for allowing what we do to take place.

Even those who get the goods and services thing we're schmucks for allowing it.