Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Sabato's Crystal Ball in '04: Bush 278 Electoral Votes, Democrat 260...
Center For Politics ^

Posted on 06/28/2003 3:36:26 PM PDT by Recovering_Democrat

Beltway Boys Fred Barnes and Mort Kondracki had Larry Sabato on their show this weekend. He presented this projected Electoral Map for 2004. What do you think? Is he right? Sabato did say if the election were held today, Bush would probably get 330 Electoral votes. He thinks this is what it'll look like in November of '04, though. Any thoughts?


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS:
Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-100101-150151-156 next last

1 posted on 06/28/2003 3:36:27 PM PDT by Recovering_Democrat
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: Recovering_Democrat; Torie; deport
Here is his web site:

http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/

I looked for the map on there, but couldn't find it; I could have sworn Fred said it was on that site, is that what you heard?

I'm a big Sabato fan!
2 posted on 06/28/2003 3:38:07 PM PDT by Howlin
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Recovering_Democrat
sad in a way, but in reality, that's the best a Republican can do given the demographics of the country. Any Dem (and I do mean "any") gets 43% of the popular vote for showing up and a whole slew of states (NY, CA, MASS, NJ, we all know the list). We are that close to socialism in the US.
3 posted on 06/28/2003 3:38:42 PM PDT by oceanview
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Howlin
Amazingly, Sabato also projects Electoral College totals for Bush vs. 5 SPECIFIC Democrat candidates: Edwards, Lieberman, Kerry, Graham and Gephardt.

Sabato has Bush LOSING to every one of these clowns EXCEPT for John F. Kerry, the French-looking candidate. I don't buy it.

4 posted on 06/28/2003 3:41:43 PM PDT by Recovering_Democrat (I'm so glad to no longer be associated with the Party of Dependence on Government!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Howlin
I heard him also. Not sure I agree with everthing he said - example, Graham could probably carry FL. I don't think so - unless they try the voter fraud again. Jeb Bush is doing a good job here and is fairly well liked - and he trounced McAwful's "shoe-in" McBride for Gov.

I would think the Hispanic community would be behind GWBush - he's done a heck of lot more for them than the RATS - can you say Estrada!! Of course I've never been a Graham fan - before he started running, he came off as a slow witted doofus. Now he sounds just like every other shrill, deceitful RAT.

5 posted on 06/28/2003 3:43:32 PM PDT by Elkiejg
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Howlin

6 posted on 06/28/2003 3:45:43 PM PDT by Diddle E. Squat
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Elkiejg
Graham will be Kerry's running mate, they must have Florida to have a chance of winning, so they are betting that Graham will help them take it. Graham has no chance of being the nominee, he is just in the race for the VP slot.
7 posted on 06/28/2003 3:46:49 PM PDT by oceanview
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 5 | View Replies]

To: Howlin
The following are links to individual match ups....

The Old College Try

Below is a link for each of the Democratic candidates to an Electoral College projection should that candidate challenge President George W. Bush in the 2004 election.

U.S. Senator John Edwards
U.S. Representative Dick Gephardt
U.S. Senator Bob Graham
U.S. Senator John Kerry
U.S. Senator Joe Lieberman

8 posted on 06/28/2003 3:47:19 PM PDT by deport ( BUSH/CHENEY 2004...... with or without the showboy)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: oceanview
Bush has a good chance to take NY in 04.
9 posted on 06/28/2003 3:48:45 PM PDT by demlosers
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 3 | View Replies]

To: Recovering_Democrat
Sabato's Crystal Ball in '04: Bush 278 Electoral Votes, Democrat 260...

If Bush only wins the same states he won in 2000, he would have 278 Electoral votes in 2004. I think he is going to not only win the states he won in 2000, but carry the several close states that went for Gore. This is my conservative projection.

It could be much better, and President Bush might win more than 40 states. He's currently very popular in New York and could possibly win there. If the DemocRATS keep collapsing in California, Bush might win it and also Barbara Boxer could be defeated in her race for a third term.

The DemocRATS might nominate Dean, and the Republican ticket might win 45 or more states.

The DemocRATS totally lose their minds, nominate Al Sharpton, and lose all 50 states, but win the District of Columbia. This would cause the Electoral College to vote 335-3 in favor of Bush.

10 posted on 06/28/2003 3:49:24 PM PDT by Paleo Conservative (Go Al Go!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: deport
Bush might as well give up now if Sabato is right...
11 posted on 06/28/2003 3:49:27 PM PDT by sabe@q.com
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Recovering_Democrat
Yeah, even with the full fledge cultural/social/judicial issues nuclear summer I expect the Dems to pull next year, I don't see them winning with any of the 9. I think a Wesley Clark or an outside curve ball(Jeff Bezos type) as their best hope.
12 posted on 06/28/2003 3:49:30 PM PDT by Diddle E. Squat
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Diddle E. Squat
Minnesota will go Republican in the next election. Take it to the bank.
13 posted on 06/28/2003 3:49:30 PM PDT by William McKinley (Time to make the donuts)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: Diddle E. Squat; deport
Well, now you see why I'm the worst searcher on the internet!
14 posted on 06/28/2003 3:50:10 PM PDT by Howlin
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: demlosers
huh? i live here, there is an exodus of middle class private sector people from NY. those who are left behind are strongly Dem. He has no chance of winning NY. Pennsylvania is a much better bet.
15 posted on 06/28/2003 3:50:24 PM PDT by oceanview
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 9 | View Replies]

To: Howlin
I am not actually a fan of Sabato. Not to brag, but he was about a month or more behind me in handicapping House races last time. His little map is eventually found, and just has Bush winning the same states he did last time. That's original and exciting. The only oddity, is that the GOP trending state of Minnesota is in the probable Dem column, rather than leaning Dem, which is nutso (actually it should be labeled leaning GOP). It is all spam.
16 posted on 06/28/2003 3:50:55 PM PDT by Torie
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Howlin; PhiKapMom; Miss Marple; Amelia; Dog Gone
His individual maps show the democrat candidate winning except for Kerry...... very interesting at this stage...
17 posted on 06/28/2003 3:51:11 PM PDT by deport ( BUSH/CHENEY 2004...... with or without the showboy)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: William McKinley
Yes, also possible. And PA too, we have a good shot there, even with 110% turnout in Philly.
18 posted on 06/28/2003 3:51:49 PM PDT by oceanview
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: deport
Does anybody really believe that John Edwards could beat Bush?
19 posted on 06/28/2003 3:52:12 PM PDT by sabe@q.com
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 17 | View Replies]

To: Recovering_Democrat
278-260 works for me, 330 sounds better. Just so long a we don't have to wait 36 days for the results!

I saw the segment, it was torture for Larry to gulp and discuss a second Bush victory.

20 posted on 06/28/2003 3:52:54 PM PDT by mombonn (Have you prayed for our President yet today?)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: deport
John Edwards will NOT carry North Carolina.
21 posted on 06/28/2003 3:53:35 PM PDT by Howlin
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: marajade
Not me!
22 posted on 06/28/2003 3:53:49 PM PDT by Howlin
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: deport
Splendid. Bush carries what he did last time, except for the home state of the Dem candidate if it was one Bush carried last time, ala NC if Edwards is the candidate. LOL. This must be some April fools joke, except it ain't April, and the publication ain't The Onion.
23 posted on 06/28/2003 3:54:01 PM PDT by Torie
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: Howlin
Which makes me question how Edwards could beat Bush in enough other states to win...

And Bob Graham... didn't they have a poll stating that right now Bush would even beat him in Florida if the two went head to head...
24 posted on 06/28/2003 3:55:04 PM PDT by sabe@q.com
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 21 | View Replies]

To: mombonn
I agree, a win is a win. given the makeup of the electorate, landslides like Reagan in 84 are impossible now. what happens in the senate races is more important.
25 posted on 06/28/2003 3:55:39 PM PDT by oceanview
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 20 | View Replies]

To: Torie
John Edwards will NOT carry North Carolina; bank on it.
26 posted on 06/28/2003 3:55:59 PM PDT by Howlin
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: marajade
Bush might as well give up now if Sabato is right...


Aw but we have the 'showboy' and his gift coming on board to make the difference..

Actually it may go down that way as the country is very split today... However all the past President's that have been reelected going back to may FDR days had done so with fairly large EC margins, not close as he's projecting.

Even Clinton won with some 379 EC votes and only 49% of the Popular... So if President Bush does win I'd look for it to be much larger than Sabato is projecting.

27 posted on 06/28/2003 3:56:15 PM PDT by deport ( BUSH/CHENEY 2004...... with or without the showboy)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 11 | View Replies]

Comment #28 Removed by Moderator

To: Recovering_Democrat
If it's that close, even, the country is TOTALLY insane, and incapable of learning anything, and the last person out won't even have to turn the lights out.

Dan
29 posted on 06/28/2003 3:56:31 PM PDT by BibChr ("...behold, they have rejected the word of the LORD, so what wisdom is in them?" [Jer. 8:9])
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: marajade
Does anybody really believe that John Edwards could beat Bush?

I'm sure someone does.

But I sure as hell don't...

30 posted on 06/28/2003 3:56:38 PM PDT by Lyford
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: Recovering_Democrat
It depends entirely on who his opponent is. He also stated that if it's Dean, the Dems will lose at least 45 states.
31 posted on 06/28/2003 3:57:20 PM PDT by Brilliant
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: deport
I think the only thing that could cause a Bush loss would be another Perot... and that is very unlikely... and since Nader is considering another run... I really can't see how Bush could lose...

One thing is for sure though... it doesn't matter who is Gov in CA, Davis or Schwartennager (Sp?)... CA will go Dem...
32 posted on 06/28/2003 3:58:12 PM PDT by sabe@q.com
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 27 | View Replies]

To: oceanview
I recently saw a NY poll that had Bush ahead against all major Rat candidates including Hillary.
33 posted on 06/28/2003 3:58:16 PM PDT by demlosers
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: Recovering_Democrat
This crystal ball is cracked. One example. He has Missouri going for favorite son Lil' Dickie Gephardt, but Lil' Dickie has never won a statewide race in Missouri and most of the state does not like St. Louis liberals. And I betcha that Edwards, like Gore, could not take his home state against Bush.
34 posted on 06/28/2003 3:58:41 PM PDT by colorado tanker
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Torie
QUESTION: If the 2004 election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between John Edwards, the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican?

BUSH EDWARDS UNDECIDED
ALL 57% 39% 4%
MEN 62% 35% 3%
WOMEN 52% 43% 5%
WHITE 63% 34% 3%
BLACK 2% 83% 15%
DEMOCRATS 21% 78% 1%
REPUBLICANS 92% 3% 5%
INDEPENDENTS 58% 36% 6%
GREENSBORO/WS 63% 35% 2%
CHARLOTTE 63% 36% 1%
RALEIGH/DURHAM 49% 46% 5%
NORTHEASTERN 50% 43% 7%
SOUTHEASTERN 51% 43% 6%
WEST 66% 31% 3%

35 posted on 06/28/2003 4:00:20 PM PDT by Howlin
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 23 | View Replies]

To: Michael Milken
You don't get it. A monkey prepared this map, and gave Bush what he got last time, less any states he carried that are the home state of the Dem candidate 9with one exception, noted below). Thus, all win, except Kerry, who comes from a Gore state, and Lieberman, who is given Florida because he is Jewish I assume, and thus Broward and Palm Beach will go really nuts this time. Dean isn't on the list.
36 posted on 06/28/2003 4:00:38 PM PDT by Torie
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: William McKinley
Hmmm, Pennsylvania could be the lock on the election if Cheney steps down and Santorum takes his place.
37 posted on 06/28/2003 4:01:08 PM PDT by Azzurri
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: demlosers
it won't hold. The people here, 6 in 10 are lost.
38 posted on 06/28/2003 4:02:07 PM PDT by oceanview
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 33 | View Replies]

To: Howlin
Well to be fair to the knuckle dragger, it assumes a highly competitive race. Still, the maps didn't show much thought.
39 posted on 06/28/2003 4:02:32 PM PDT by Torie
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 35 | View Replies]

To: Michael Milken
QUESTION: If the 2004 election for North Carolina's U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote to reelect John Edwards, would consider voting for another candidate, or would you vote to replace Edwards?

REELECT CONSIDER REPLACE NOT SURE
ALL 32% 33% 35% -
MEN 28% 31% 41% -
WOMEN 36% 35% 29% -
WHITE 26% 37% 37% -
BLACK 77% 4% 1% 18%
DEMOCRATS 66% 25% 9% -
REPUBLICANS 3% 39% 58% -
INDEPENDENTS 27% 35% 38% -
GREENSBORO/WS 28% 33% 39% -
CHARLOTTE 29% 34% 37% -
RALEIGH/DURHAM 39% 32% 29% -
NORTHEASTERN 40% 32% 28% -
SOUTHEASTERN 38% 32% 30% -
WEST 18% 35% 47% -

40 posted on 06/28/2003 4:03:44 PM PDT by Howlin
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 28 | View Replies]

To: Howlin
Bush hasn't made much progress with blacks in NC has he? :(
41 posted on 06/28/2003 4:04:12 PM PDT by Torie
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 35 | View Replies]

To: Recovering_Democrat
Sabato has Bush LOSING to every one of these clowns EXCEPT for John F. Kerry...

Doesn't make any sense. Are you sure you got the info right? If so, Sabato doesn't know his own tush from a hole in the ground.

At this early stage, the three Dem candidates with the best shot at the nomination are Dean (angry grassroots Left), Kerry (war record & money) and Gephardt (unions). Edwards and Graham have not gotten any traction at all in the early going, and Lieberman seems to be lagging in the fund-raising area. If their chances are slim against their own fellow Dems, what chance do they have against the President?

42 posted on 06/28/2003 4:04:18 PM PDT by Wolfstar (If we don't re-elect GWB a truly great President we're NUTS!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 4 | View Replies]

To: Diddle E. Squat
Diddle, how did you post the pic? I tried to do it, but it wouldn't work for me? What did I do wrong?
43 posted on 06/28/2003 4:06:22 PM PDT by Recovering_Democrat (I'm so glad to no longer be associated with the Party of Dependence on Government!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 6 | View Replies]

To: marajade
Does anybody really believe that John Edwards could beat Bush?

I believe it can happen. Politics is very fickle, particularly after what we saw in 2000. One bad debate can sink Bush (remember Ford?).

I have accepted the fact that it is going to be a close election, not as close as 2000, but close. That is why I laugh when I see freepers ignorantly high-fiving each other every week on Bush's meaningless poll numbers on job approval this early.

I can guarantee you one thing. If you are one of those Freepers who thinks Bush has 6 more years left, you will be stunned at the ferocity of campaigning and dirty tricks you will see next year from the Dems. Any talk of "landslides" now is irresponsible. We have to act like it is going to be a long fight.

Do not forget, despite the high approval ratings, Bush's re-elect numbers are remarkably soft. People have already forgotten more people voted for Nader/Gore than for Bush. I will be shocked if Bush carries more than 35-36 states, and Sabato could well be right.

44 posted on 06/28/2003 4:07:03 PM PDT by nwrep
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 19 | View Replies]

To: Torie
Nope, but neither has Edwards.
45 posted on 06/28/2003 4:07:16 PM PDT by Howlin
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 41 | View Replies]

To: Recovering_Democrat
I'm not sure why, but when you cut and paste the address, it won't post. Instead right-click and go to 'properties', and cut and paste the address there(it is different).
46 posted on 06/28/2003 4:08:24 PM PDT by Diddle E. Squat
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 43 | View Replies]

To: Howlin
http://www.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/pres_college-fig1.htm"

His Red/Blue map for 2004 shows the same 'close' states as 2000, but New Hampshire leaning Republican.

Bush wins against a generic "Democratic nominee" 278 to 260.

Larry was in my wife's class at UVa and in my sister's high school class. He was campaign manager for Virginia Governor candidate Henry Howell (liberal democrat) in the 1970's.

He has strong democratic roots, but is surprisingly objective in his analyis.

47 posted on 06/28/2003 4:08:32 PM PDT by edwin hubble
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: Paleo Conservative
This projection is nuts.

Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, and Oregon should go R next year, which will give Bush over 315 EVs.

I would put Michigan as a tossup/leaning dem. It would be hard to win Michigan but not impossible, not like winning Kalifornia!
48 posted on 06/28/2003 4:10:03 PM PDT by Pubbie (Bill Owens for Prez and Jeb as VP in '08.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: Recovering_Democrat
If things stay as they are right now, it is going to be a closer election than most think--depending on which Dem candidate emerges.

The economy has been "recovering" since the spring of 2000, but layoffs continue, the stock market has been bouncing up and down, and things aren't all rosy in the pocketbooks. Like it or not, people vote based on their pocketbooks.

Events could change drastically either for or against GWB on either economic or terrorism front. More economic instability and GWB may be out. Another significant terrorist attack could help or hurt GWB, depending on where, how, etc. If it is over the open borders, GWB is out, because the opposition will say he didn't secure the borders. If it were something perceived as unstoppable surprise, GWB could be helped in the polls, depending on his response.

The "well knowns" on the Dem side don't stand much of a chance. Dean is the most "outsider" of the lot. Don't discount him. The last 2 Dem Presidents have been governors; the last 2 Pub Presidents have been governors.

Don't count Hillary out. She is lurking, learing, waiting for a perceivable change. She cannot afford to let another Dem possibly win the Presidence--that would put her out until 2012 and she can't wait that long. She will connive behind the scenes, and if there is any perceived weakness in GWB's reelection, Hillary will maneuver herself to be the one sworn in as President. Don't ever underestimate her.
49 posted on 06/28/2003 4:11:08 PM PDT by TomGuy
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Azzurri
Hmmm, Pennsylvania could be the lock on the election if Cheney steps down and Santorum takes his place.

I wouldn't analyze that from only a single perspective...

50 posted on 06/28/2003 4:13:07 PM PDT by Diddle E. Squat
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 37 | View Replies]


Navigation: use the links below to view more comments.
first 1-5051-100101-150151-156 next last

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson