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Sabato's Crystal Ball in '04: Bush 278 Electoral Votes, Democrat 260...
Center For Politics ^

Posted on 06/28/2003 3:36:26 PM PDT by Recovering_Democrat

Beltway Boys Fred Barnes and Mort Kondracki had Larry Sabato on their show this weekend. He presented this projected Electoral Map for 2004. What do you think? Is he right? Sabato did say if the election were held today, Bush would probably get 330 Electoral votes. He thinks this is what it'll look like in November of '04, though. Any thoughts?


TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
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To: deport
John Edwards will NOT carry North Carolina.
21 posted on 06/28/2003 3:53:35 PM PDT by Howlin
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To: marajade
Not me!
22 posted on 06/28/2003 3:53:49 PM PDT by Howlin
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To: deport
Splendid. Bush carries what he did last time, except for the home state of the Dem candidate if it was one Bush carried last time, ala NC if Edwards is the candidate. LOL. This must be some April fools joke, except it ain't April, and the publication ain't The Onion.
23 posted on 06/28/2003 3:54:01 PM PDT by Torie
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To: Howlin
Which makes me question how Edwards could beat Bush in enough other states to win...

And Bob Graham... didn't they have a poll stating that right now Bush would even beat him in Florida if the two went head to head...
24 posted on 06/28/2003 3:55:04 PM PDT by sabe@q.com
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To: mombonn
I agree, a win is a win. given the makeup of the electorate, landslides like Reagan in 84 are impossible now. what happens in the senate races is more important.
25 posted on 06/28/2003 3:55:39 PM PDT by oceanview
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To: Torie
John Edwards will NOT carry North Carolina; bank on it.
26 posted on 06/28/2003 3:55:59 PM PDT by Howlin
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To: marajade
Bush might as well give up now if Sabato is right...


Aw but we have the 'showboy' and his gift coming on board to make the difference..

Actually it may go down that way as the country is very split today... However all the past President's that have been reelected going back to may FDR days had done so with fairly large EC margins, not close as he's projecting.

Even Clinton won with some 379 EC votes and only 49% of the Popular... So if President Bush does win I'd look for it to be much larger than Sabato is projecting.

27 posted on 06/28/2003 3:56:15 PM PDT by deport ( BUSH/CHENEY 2004...... with or without the showboy)
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Comment #28 Removed by Moderator

To: Recovering_Democrat
If it's that close, even, the country is TOTALLY insane, and incapable of learning anything, and the last person out won't even have to turn the lights out.

Dan
29 posted on 06/28/2003 3:56:31 PM PDT by BibChr ("...behold, they have rejected the word of the LORD, so what wisdom is in them?" [Jer. 8:9])
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To: marajade
Does anybody really believe that John Edwards could beat Bush?

I'm sure someone does.

But I sure as hell don't...

30 posted on 06/28/2003 3:56:38 PM PDT by Lyford
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To: Recovering_Democrat
It depends entirely on who his opponent is. He also stated that if it's Dean, the Dems will lose at least 45 states.
31 posted on 06/28/2003 3:57:20 PM PDT by Brilliant
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To: deport
I think the only thing that could cause a Bush loss would be another Perot... and that is very unlikely... and since Nader is considering another run... I really can't see how Bush could lose...

One thing is for sure though... it doesn't matter who is Gov in CA, Davis or Schwartennager (Sp?)... CA will go Dem...
32 posted on 06/28/2003 3:58:12 PM PDT by sabe@q.com
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To: oceanview
I recently saw a NY poll that had Bush ahead against all major Rat candidates including Hillary.
33 posted on 06/28/2003 3:58:16 PM PDT by demlosers
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To: Recovering_Democrat
This crystal ball is cracked. One example. He has Missouri going for favorite son Lil' Dickie Gephardt, but Lil' Dickie has never won a statewide race in Missouri and most of the state does not like St. Louis liberals. And I betcha that Edwards, like Gore, could not take his home state against Bush.
34 posted on 06/28/2003 3:58:41 PM PDT by colorado tanker
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To: Torie
QUESTION: If the 2004 election for President were held today, who would you vote for if the choice were between John Edwards, the Democrat, and George W. Bush, the Republican?

BUSH EDWARDS UNDECIDED
ALL 57% 39% 4%
MEN 62% 35% 3%
WOMEN 52% 43% 5%
WHITE 63% 34% 3%
BLACK 2% 83% 15%
DEMOCRATS 21% 78% 1%
REPUBLICANS 92% 3% 5%
INDEPENDENTS 58% 36% 6%
GREENSBORO/WS 63% 35% 2%
CHARLOTTE 63% 36% 1%
RALEIGH/DURHAM 49% 46% 5%
NORTHEASTERN 50% 43% 7%
SOUTHEASTERN 51% 43% 6%
WEST 66% 31% 3%

35 posted on 06/28/2003 4:00:20 PM PDT by Howlin
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To: Michael Milken
You don't get it. A monkey prepared this map, and gave Bush what he got last time, less any states he carried that are the home state of the Dem candidate 9with one exception, noted below). Thus, all win, except Kerry, who comes from a Gore state, and Lieberman, who is given Florida because he is Jewish I assume, and thus Broward and Palm Beach will go really nuts this time. Dean isn't on the list.
36 posted on 06/28/2003 4:00:38 PM PDT by Torie
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To: William McKinley
Hmmm, Pennsylvania could be the lock on the election if Cheney steps down and Santorum takes his place.
37 posted on 06/28/2003 4:01:08 PM PDT by Azzurri
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To: demlosers
it won't hold. The people here, 6 in 10 are lost.
38 posted on 06/28/2003 4:02:07 PM PDT by oceanview
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To: Howlin
Well to be fair to the knuckle dragger, it assumes a highly competitive race. Still, the maps didn't show much thought.
39 posted on 06/28/2003 4:02:32 PM PDT by Torie
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To: Michael Milken
QUESTION: If the 2004 election for North Carolina's U.S. Senate were held today, would you vote to reelect John Edwards, would consider voting for another candidate, or would you vote to replace Edwards?

REELECT CONSIDER REPLACE NOT SURE
ALL 32% 33% 35% -
MEN 28% 31% 41% -
WOMEN 36% 35% 29% -
WHITE 26% 37% 37% -
BLACK 77% 4% 1% 18%
DEMOCRATS 66% 25% 9% -
REPUBLICANS 3% 39% 58% -
INDEPENDENTS 27% 35% 38% -
GREENSBORO/WS 28% 33% 39% -
CHARLOTTE 29% 34% 37% -
RALEIGH/DURHAM 39% 32% 29% -
NORTHEASTERN 40% 32% 28% -
SOUTHEASTERN 38% 32% 30% -
WEST 18% 35% 47% -

40 posted on 06/28/2003 4:03:44 PM PDT by Howlin
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