Posted on 06/30/2003 12:21:32 PM PDT by pabianice
Over two years after U.S. President George W. Bush agreed to sell Taiwan eight diesel-powered submarines, the project appeared to be at a standstill on Tuesday.
Briefing reporters after meeting with U.S. Department of Defense officials, Legislative Yuan Speaker Wang Jin-pyng, noted that the U.S. government's priorities for providing Taiwan with a sufficient defensive capability have changed, and the issue of the submarine purchase was not discussed. People First Party (PFP) legislator Lin Yu-fang, however, confirmed that the sale of submarines to Taiwan is no longer seen as a priority by the U.S. administration.
While one of the greatest perceived threats to the island's security may be its inability to prevent a blockade by mainland China, Taiwan may not get the submarines in time. Wang stressed that, according to U.S. estimates, the military balance will tip away from Taiwan and in favor of mainland China in between two to five years. So, with mainland China rapidly modernizing its military, and increasing the deployment of short-range ballistic missiles along the coast of Fujian province, the U.S. is prioritizing the sale of Patriot PAC-3 anti-missile systems, older P3-B Orion anti-submarine aircraft and so-called "C4ISR" capabilities and infrastructure of combat telecommunications, computers, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance, including long-range early warning radar, according to a source close to the issue.
The U.S. could supply the above defensive weapons systems to Taiwan almost immediately, but Wang noted that Taiwan might have to wait until 2014 before taking delivery of a single submarine, perhaps too long to be of any use.
The crux of the problem lies in the fact that although the Bush administration pledged in April 2001 to provide Taiwan with conventional submarines, the U.S. has not built such vessels since the '50s. Several countries that still have the capacity to build conventional submarines have expressed an interest in fulfilling the order on behalf of the U.S., including Germany, Spain, the Netherlands and Israel. Alternatively, U.S. defense contractors, including Northrop Grumman and General Dynamics, could build the submarines, although the likely costs of retooling a U.S. shipyard are thought to be prohibitive. But, if the PFP's Lin gets his way, six of the eight submarines will be built in Taiwan, though he admits that "without U.S. government support, Taiwan will never be able to obtain submarines."
Despite the acquisition of Germany's largest shipbuilding company HDW in the spring of 2002 by a U.S. investment firm, One Equity Partners (OEP), the contract now looks unlikely to go to Germany, according to Lin, as the country has a law that prohibits German companies from selling weapons to any country in a region where there is potential for conflict, plus OEP sold its 75 percent share in the company in March of this year, allegedly because of Germany's restrictive export policies.
Holland is thought unlikely to want to risk angering mainland China, and the involvement of Israel would also be complicated as, according to previous reports, that country would be opposed to becoming directly involved in a transaction between Washington and Taipei. That leaves Spain, but according to the source, although Spain is believed to remain interested in the project, the real problem is that Taiwan's Legislature has yet to approve funding for the multi-billion dollar project. The bottom line for any country that agrees to supply Taiwan with weaponry is that they need to assess the consequences of inevitably damaging relations with mainland China.
Taipei and Washington have not yet reached a workable "consensus" on the submarine issue, according to Taiwan Solidarity Union (TSU) legislator Ho Min-hao, and given what are increasingly looking like insurmountable challenges presented by the deal, he believes both sides need to reassess Taiwan's defense alternatives.
With the cost of financing the submarine purchase being a major stumbling block for Taiwan's legislators, Lin spoke of his discussion with the chairman of the U.S.-Taiwan Business Council and former U.S. Secretary of Defense William Cohen, in which the idea that a third party might partially finance the deal was raised.
Over the course of two hectic days in the U.S. capital, Wang has also met with members of Congress, officials from the National Security Council (NSC) and think tank scholars. On Tuesday in a meeting on Capitol Hill with members of the Congressional Taiwan Caucus, Wang also urged members of Congress to give further support to the idea of establishing a U.S.-Taiwan Free Trade Agreement (FTA).
Although the referendum issue, so hotly debated in recent days, took a back seat to defense issues in Washington, the issue was raised in a meeting that took place in New York on Monday between American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) chairman of the board and managing director Therese Shaheen and Minister of Foreign Affairs Eugene Chien. The AIT chief is said to have quizzed Chien on the government's stand on the issue of referendums, including whether the President Chen Shui-bian administration has fully considered the likely reaction from mainland China. Further details of Chien and Shaheen's discussion were not immediately available.
Please relay inquiry to Mr. H. and Frank G.
It didn't stop them selling stuff to Saddam.
And the coming Medicare prescription-plan fiasco as well.
The bad news for liberty just keeps coming in spades.
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