Skip to comments.Independence Day
Posted on 07/01/2003 8:56:19 PM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
The Red Rockets
While the United States celebrates its independence day with fireworks and the rockets' red glare, China will be celebrating a holiday of military might.
China has announced that it will soon test its latest war rocket. The People's Liberation Army Second Artillery Corps is planning to test-fire a series of missiles, starting with its latest ICBM capable of striking the U.S., the new DF-31 mobile missile.
The DF-31 reportedly can carry a single 3-megaton H-bomb or three 90-kiloton nuclear warheads. The missile has an official range of over 4,800 miles.
The critical part of the DF-31 test is the fact that it is being conducted from the Lop Nur missile range, close to the Chinese nuclear weapons development facility. The test at Lop Nur indicates that the PLA missile troops are training with dummy nuclear warheads under live combat conditions, indicating that the missile is being moved from testing to actual deployment in the near future.
The Dong Feng 31, named "East Wind" after a Maoist slogan, reportedly is equipped with U.S. missile and warhead technology that was obtained by China through espionage, and legal and illegal technology transfers from the Clinton administration.
Great Wave 2
The PLA navy also announced plans to test its newest long-range missile, the Julang (Great Wave) 2, or JL-2.
"From open sources one cannot assess the real range of the JL-2," noted Richard Fisher, a senior fellow and defense analyst at the Jamestown Foundation.
"Most sources note it is the sea-borne counterpart to the DF-31, which is credited with a 8,000km (4,800mi) range. However, there is some unconfirmable reporting that the JL-2 may have longer range."
U.S. Navy sources expressed concern that a JL-2-armed submarine could sail to within a few hundred miles of the U.S. western coast. Such a move would place West Coast cities at "point blank" range, enabling the Chinese submarine to shower Los Angeles or San Francisco with nuclear warheads. The move would also place most if not all U.S. cities within range of the H-bomb-equipped missile.
"It is likely that the goal for the JL-2 is to be able to reach the Western U.S. from the Yellow Sea, an area that the PLA can defend with near current ship and aircraft resources. But of course, if the Type 094 SSBN is able to reach launch points outside this area, the JL-2's reach will increase," stated Fisher.
"India also fears this new SLBM as it expects that the PLA will produce enough Type 094 SSBNs to pose a credible second strike presence in the Indian Ocean," noted Fisher.
The Chinese army also announced a new series of tests from the northern Wuzhai launch site, to include the current DF-21 missile. The DF-21 has a range of 1,200 miles and reportedly carries a single 300-kiloton H-bomb.
Unlike the DF-31, the DF-21 is currently an active part of the PLA Second Artillery Corps arsenal. The tests are thought to be a new variant of the DF-21 equipped with an active radar imaging guidance system. The new guidance system may give the DF-21 an accuracy of less than 30 feet.
New Fighter Jet
The PLA Air Force (PLAAF), not to be outdone by its rocket-firing counterparts in the Chinese army, has also unveiled its latest military creation, the FC-1 light fighter.
The FC-1 is being developed by CAC-1, formerly Chengdu Aircraft Corp., with partial funding by Pakistan. The FC-1 draws its design lineage from the Super-7 fighter program, a cooperative development between Chengdu and then Grumman Corp. The agreement was signed in 1988, but fell apart after Beijing's violent reaction to the Tiananmen Square demonstrations in 1989.
However, the FC-1 incorporates many features from the U.S. F-16 Fighting Falcon design. The F-16 features appeared during the 1990s after Pakistan transferred a single F-16A fighter to China in exchange for DF-11 missile technology.
Russia also has contributed to the FC-1 project. The FC-1 reportedly incorporated several features of the now-defunct MiG-33 lightweight fighter project rejected by the Russian air force. The Russian MiG design bureau dedicated several teams of engineers to the Chinese fighter after the fall of the Soviet Union. A single modified MiG-29 engine, the Klimov RD-33, dubbed the RD-93, powers the FC-1.
The Pakistani air force eventually could buy up to 150 FC-1s, but this purchase depends on whether the aircraft meets performance expectations.
The aircraft is favored by the Chinese naval aviation arm but has found little support from within the PLAAF itself. The Chinese air force is currently testing another lightweight fighter named the J-10. The PLAAF leadership feels that the FC-1 is a waste of time and a costly duplication of the J-10 effort already under way.
New Chinese Army Visit
Despite the increased testing of advanced weapons, the Chinese military is also carrying out its political war. Chinese Defense Minister Gen. Cao Gangchuan is slated to visit the U.S. this fall as part of a high-level military exchange.
Gen. Cao is well-known inside Pentagon circles but not as a field commander. Before taking the top Defense ministry post, Cao ran the highly effective techno unit of China's government known as the Commission of Science, Technology and Industry for National Defense (COSTIND).
From 1996 to 1998, Cao ran COSTIND's effort to exploit, purchase, borrow or steal advanced U.S. military technology. Cao had his job cut out for him due mainly to the overwhelming success of his predecessor. Cao took over COSTIND following the retirement of Gen. Ding Henggao. By 1996, Ding had already purchased his way into several U.S. corporations such as Loral, Hughes and Motorola.
Ding's efforts led to a massive inflow of advanced satellite, rocket, communication, computer and electronic technology authorized by the Clinton administration. Ding even personally participated in the acquisition of an advanced fiber optic communications network for the Chinese army.
Ding's right-hand man and second in command at COSTIND, Gen. Shen, not only managed to acquire Hughes satellites for the Chinese army but also landed his son a job at a classified position inside Hughes. COSTIND also obtained critical nose-cone design software from Hughes that now serves the DF-31, JL-2 and DF-21 missiles well.
Ding retired in 1996 but not without honors. The Central Communist Committee awarded his unit, COSTIND, the lead role in all future Chinese space projects, including manned space flights.
Chinese Army Victory
The close relationship between COSTIND and the Clinton administration is clearly illustrated in correspondence obtained by the Freedom of Information Act. In 1995, then Secretary of Defense William Perry wrote Gen. Ding a letter congratulating the Chinese general on "the 46th Anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China."
"Advancing the military relationship between our two nations remains an objective which we agree serves the long-term interests of peace and stability," noted Perry in his letter to Gen. Ding.
"We are making arrangements for the visit of a delegation of Chinese defense managers to the United States in the near future. This group will be hosted by the Departments of Defense and Commerce, as well as by U.S. industries. At the same time, we are exploring the possibility of providing assistance in facilitating intern programs for defense conversion specialists."
"Let me close by again conveying my respects to your on your National Day and by reiterating my support for our bilateral military relationship," concluded Perry.
As America celebrates its Independence Day, the words of William Perry are a chilling reminder of the new Chinese army weapons pointed at the United States and our allies.
As for the JL-2 stuff: Apparently, the Jamestown Foundation has discovered the joys of threat inflation. Unfortunately, they have yet to discover the joys of logic and common sense, as their arguments tend to mutually contradict each other.
They say "we can't estimate the range from open sources," then say "there's evidence that it's more than 8,000 km," then hyperventilate, "but the ChiComs might park one only a few HUNDRED kilometers from the US."
OK, if this thing is really an 8,000+ km range missile...a 300-km shot is going to be an extremely depressed-trajectory shot.
And THAT will require flight-testing in a depressed-trajectory regime...which hasn't happened. Hell, there apparently hasn't been enough flight testing conducted to give anyone a reasonable estimate of the thing's range!
Finally...OK, suppose the ChiComs "shower" (gotta love the purple prose) the West Coast with nuclear warheads.
So what happens next? How do the ensuing events proceed in China's favor, expecially after the boys and girls in the silos and subs turn their keys? Can any of the Sinophobes on this board kindly give us a credible theory of victory for China in this scenario?
No--you first have to demonstrate that this Axis is real, and that each player is REALLY willing to court national suicide to support the other guy's nuclear strike.
That aside, kindly explain to me a coherent theory of victory for this "Axis."
The fake Sino - Russian split notwithstanding (and Henry da K now inducted into PT Barnum's Suckers' Hall of Fame) what we face is a much more robust version of the Molotov - Ribbentrop assemblage.
Lots of arm-waving. No verifiable fact.
Mind PROVING that the split is fake?
But this time there will be no backstabbing, at least not until AFTER the West has been destroyed, or, somehow made a miracle recovery in the midst of the most destructive war ever to confront mankind.
Even more arm-waving, and still no verifiable fact.
Please provide a convincing argument that the above assertion is, in fact, true.
China and Russia have VERY different interests. Among other things, China still refers to Siberia as "stolen territory," and they've had damn near 400 years to get over it. (And we thought the neo-Confederates on this board kept a grudge!)
Also, China is presently engaged in a slow-motion invasion of Siberia. At some point in the not-distant future (hint: think birth rates), Russia will have two choices: (a) meekly accede to a Chinese annexation of the richest stockpile of minerals and lumber left on the globe, or (b) get snippy about it and turn most of Manchuria into a radioactive slag heap.
I don't see (a) as an option.
You seem to be mistaking slow reflexes on Ivan's part for deal-making on both parties' parts.
Russia is a very paranoid country when it comes to countries invading her on any level, thus she will react without restraint.(I could hear the cry now 'for the sake of your homeland we must defeat the invaders and remember the last time we won against the last invaders, the Nazis, we shall not surrender'[or something to that effect].) However, the two have concluded the Good Neighborly and Friendship treaty on 7-16-01 and a whole host of talks ranging from low, mid, and high level officials on both countries soils.
It's called "international relations" because it consists of sovereign nations trying to f*** each other.
Otherwise, the nukes would have flown long before over this when China was weaker.
Ivan always calculates the likely gain against the likely loss.
China can do a s**tload of damage to European Russia. Are a few tens, hundreds, even a few thousand illegal immigrants worth starting a nuclear war over, given the likely consequences?
Now she grows in tech and heavy industry on a scale not seen in some time.
Not to mention Russia's willingness to give a certain amount of tech as well fabrication abilities for components of Chinas own modern weapon systems. The only question so far is what is Russia getting out of the deal?
Hard currency. But that ain't enough to deal with the likely consequences.
They may yet regret this decision. Remember, on June 22, 1941, trainloads of Russian goods rolled west into the Greater German Reich minutes before Operation Barbarossa got underway.
They both supply support for the DPRK which is a major thorn in our side.
A "major thorn?"
Try "an annoying chihuahua."
Should war occur here and we are taken off guard,
A very BIG "if" that is unlikely to happen, except in the context of Joe Citizen getting surprised by a US invasion of North Korea.
then China has the most to gain and by extension of the region so does Russia though to a lesser extent.
At the moment the two countries have far more to gain by working together rather than in competition or outright hostility.
That can easily change. China is Enron with nukes. If their cashflow goes south, they might decide to try to establish the "Greater East Asian Co-Prosperity Sphere" by kicking the round-eye barbarians out of Siberia.
After all, if America takes it on the chin in this region and possibly others, then we loss our power base which creates a power vacuum.
OK, China has to actually engineer the loss of out power base.
Kind of how you make Kodiak Bear stew. All you have to do is bag yourself a Kodiak Bear. Of course, to do that, all you have to do is make sure (a) you're alive and (b) the bear is dead. Of course...that last part is easy to say, but rather challenging to actually DO.
So who has the ability to fill this power vacuum?
Japan and India come to mind.
The only other countries that can are China and Russia.
Russia is in no shape to do it. That leaves China--which is, as I've observed, Enron with nukes.
And nothing brings two enemies together than the common hatred of another enemy.
And nothing divides them more quickly than the question of "is he really going to back this potentially suicidal move, or is he just going to stab me in the back?"
Should they succeed in this endeavor, no doubt the two would return to the old view as each being the enemy since they no longer have to worry about us.
Step #1 in Kodiak Bear Stew: catch the bear.
Insight on the News - Fair Comment
Remarkable. You appear to be either negligently or willfully ignorant of the extreme vulnerability of the low-alert U.S. strategic deterrent posture to a pre-emptive first strike. Follow the trends. Four to five years downstream, the Chinese may have 20 JL-2 subs. Or even false-merchantmen with their SLBMs loaded in VLS tubes. (This was once a deterrent concept the US explored). Meanwhile, we will have gone further down the DE-Preparedness route. You falsely assume that there will be any 'boys and girls in the silos and subs' with keys to turn. The U.S. has no Looking Glass flights currently running. The U.S. is in a complete stand-down as far as launch on warning. Indeed the policy remains to launch only after their strike has landed. So much muscle and sinew has been atrophied, deactivated or cancelled, that going back to that high-alert posture will be seriously non-trivial.
And clearly, the political attitude of GWB himself on these issues borders on the cavalier treason of Clinton himself. His unilateral reductions of our retaliatory missile force to less than 1600 warheads will mean that there are just too few launch systems to survive a dedicated JL-2 attack launched from 400 miles off the coast with depressed-trajectories (which may well have been tested in that mode, I have no reason to believe you claiming the contrary, nor should you believe yourself, since this testing is so easily implemented...e.g., the Russians have done so with their missiles). Their Mirv warheads targetting each of the paltry remaining U.S. strategic assets that Bush/Rice have left us.
If the accuracy is good enough (in the depressed mode), (still to be shown, of course) they can credibly destroy the missiles in their silos. The bombers also already cut in half, and also on virtually zero-alert preparedness, with no planes ready on the flight lines, will not be able to scramble fast enough on warning before destruction. Clearly the Chinese accuracy is good enough for that. NORAD, and Space Command can each be taken out with a few shots of the larger warheads. The sole basis for our having any retaliatory capability whatsoever will then rest with the at-sea Trident submarines and our carriers. GWB has been directing Rumsfeld to save money and go down to ONE Trident sub at sea. And ordered further reductions in the fielded totals pursuant the stupid Moscow Treaty. The in-port Tridents (all conveniently bunched up in Walla Walla) will die. That leaves one Trident. They may be hoping that with just ONE submarine they can learn to do as we do in our HUK techniques, and quietly trail it as it leaves port in Walla Walla. If so ( a big if, but then look at the improbable, yet undeniable technical espionage successes already displayed by them), then a nuclear torpedo ends that Trident.
Which leaves, if we are lucky, at-sea maybe 4 or 5 U.S. Carriers in the Pacific or Indian oceans. The Chinese may be mistaken, but from their literature, they appear to be hoping that they can target the carriers beyond the South China Sea with their IRBMs with satellite-based radar 'painting' of the ships, and either destroy or degrade them with a near-nuclear strike.
The long and the short of it is, I would maintain that we should take steps to reverse trends initiated by GHWB/Clinton/GWB. Instead of simplifying....we need to complicate the issues for a Russo-Sino first-strike threat, we make it inviting to their war planners. Better to deter it in the first place by doing those things, whether marginally more expensive or tedious, so that we are prepared for the worst-case. We will have the proof of their intentions or at least their threatened intentions, if they do dramatically deploy 250-300 of the JL-2s or improvements thereon.
With the slow U.S. political/military reaction time, it is always good to have then thought through a proper response well ahead of time if it calls for deployments of new defenses. In this case, clearly an NMD with 360-degrees azimuth would be a dramatic discouragement to Russo-Chinese schemes. Note just how vociferous were their (and their ancillary International Socialist allies) objections to our even inching up to that objective capability. This is the one potentially bright spot in the future trends of the GWB posture. Hence you can count on the Chinese to HEAVILY finance the campaign of Hillary in 2004, so that the NMD program gets either defunded, or neutered in some other way.
FOX NEWS.com (AP): "FORMER FBI AGENT INDICTED IN CHINA SPY CASE" (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "WASHINGTON -- A federal grand jury indicted a retired FBI agent Wednesday on charges of gross negligence and wire fraud for allegedly allowing his longtime intelligence source and lover access to secrets she passed on to China. The grand jury indictment returned in Los Angeles and released by the Justice Department in Washington charges James J. Smith, 59, for his role in the case of alleged Chinese double agent Katrina Leung. Court documents say that Smith recruited Leung in 1982 to be an FBI "asset" providing intelligence on China and that the two began a long-lasting affair that year. Prosecutors say Leung pilfered classified material from Smith's briefcase when he visited her home and passed the information to Chinese intelligence agents.") (May 7, 2003) (Read More...)
An Interesting Discussion on FREEREPUBLIC.com regarding an ASSOCIATED PRESS article by Curt Anderson as published on BAYAREA.com in the CONTRA COSTA TIMES.com: "ACCUSED DOUBLE-AGENT MET 2,100 TIMES WITH CHINESE OFFICIALS" (May 2, 2003) (Read More...)(Updated July 5, 2003)
NewsMax.com: "Independence Day" by Charles R. Smith (ARTICLE SNIPPETS: "While the United States celebrates its independence day with fireworks and the rockets' red glare, China will be celebrating a holiday of military might." ... ""Let me close by again conveying my respects to your on your National Day and by reiterating my support for our bilateral military relationship," concluded Perry. As America celebrates its Independence Day, the words of William Perry are a chilling reminder of the new Chinese army weapons pointed at the United States and our allies.") (July 1, 2003) (Read More...)
INA TODAY.com - INTERNATIONAL NEWS ANALYSIS -- TODAY by Toby Westerman: "POTENTIAL CATASTROPHE AS COMMUNIST CHINA'S ACTIONS IN HONG KONG THREATEN TO IGNITE PACIFIC -- WILL U.S. BE INVOLVED?" (July 4, 2003) (Read More...)
INA TODAY.com - INTERNATIONAL NEWS ANALYSIS -- TODAY by Toby Westerman: "SPECTACULAR PROFITS IN RUSSIA -- ARMS FOR NATIONS HOSTILE TO U.S.?" (ARTICLE SNIPPET: ""Dynamic" Russia not only offers profits, energy, and leadership to Europe, but also uses its vast resources to provide aid to nations hostile, or potentially hostile, to the United States, including the burgeoning nuclear power, Iran. Russia is providing Iran assistance for its nuclear reactor, and for the past decade "democratic" Russia has been the main weapons supplier to communist China, which has worked unceasingly to modernize its military. Many analysts fear that the Chinese military is planning to overrun the free island of Taiwan, and challenge the U.S. in the Pacific. Moscow is even helping Beijing to launch an orbiting space station. Vast wealth may be earned from business with Russia, but the question remains, what kind of nation is being built, and what are its intentions toward the United States?") (June 27, 2003) (Read More...)
INSIGHT On The News online: "CHINESE RESEARCH ASSISTANT SENTENCED" by Nicole Riner (ARTICLE SNIPPET: "After being found guilty of stealing biological materials from Cornell University's laboratory, former research assistant Yin Qingqiang was sentenced to one year in federal prison on June 12. Upon release he likely will be deported back to the People's Republic of China. The material which Yin stole is known to decrease the amount of phosphorus excretion found in animal waste, thus reducing pollution, but of more concern to authorities was that it also can be used to manufacture tracer bullets.") (June 17, 2003) (Read More...)
North Korea is ahead of CIA's earlier estimate vis a vis processing of fuel rods.
Iran ditto ahead of earlier estimates.
Iran has largest missile force in region.
WMDs absent from Iraq may be used by Hitlery 2004 campaign team (e.g., al Qaeda, Hamas, al Fatah, Islamic Jihad, etc.).
Will Kim Jong Chiapet act out with a nuclear demonstration?
Will Iran fall to popular unrest before Ayatollah, Inc. can demonstrate a nuclear weapon?
Will Russia's 144 million kill themselves in vodka-fueled auto crashes before Putin can imprison all his opponents?
Will Hong Kong stave off a Tiananmen-style crackdown?
Putin will arm Hu's army--but with the best stuff?
The lesson of Barbarossa cannot be unlearned.
Hu would be so rash as to kill the golden goose rather than enjoy the eggs?