Breaux Not Running? (Louisiana Senate Seat Could be Wide Open)

PoliPundit.com ^ | 7/25/03 | PoliPundit.com

[NYC Republican]

Breaux Not Running?

Senate Democrats may have yet another tough seat to worry about in 2004. Senator John Breaux (D-LA) hasn't decided whether he's going to run for re-election. From the Wall Street Journal Today: BREAUX'S INDECISION on a fourth Senate term unnerves Democrats, already facing some incumbent exits in Republican-leaning South. While relishing his role as legislative broker, the popular Louisianan says, at age 59, "If I want to do something else with my life, this is the time to do it." He'll decide after his state's fall governor race. Breaux would be a shoo-in if he were to run. If not, this race would be wide open. My full 2004 Senate analysis is here.

Here's PoliPundit's Senate Analysis..

2004 Senate Update

Now that the Iraq situation is stabilizing somewhat, it's time for another 2004 Senate analysis. I'm going to cover all the important races so that you don't have to read my previous updates With Bush at the top of the ticket in 2004 and a gerrymandered House Republican majority that will endure, barring a meteor strike, the Senate is the key battleground in 2004. The GOP has a genuine opportunity to get a filibuster-proof majority for the first time since the Great Depression.

The Senate playing field in general favors the GOP because:

1. The Senate should be rightfully Republican. Bush won 30 states in 2000 and, if each of them elected two GOP senators, Republicans would enjoy a 60-40 advantage in the Senate. Senate races have been getting increasingly ideological in the last few election cycles; so the GOP's odds are looking better and better in Bush states. Note also that most of the closely decided states in 2000 were won by Gore. Republican candidates will be competitive in these states as well.

2. More Democrats than Republicans are up for election in 2004. Out of 19 Democrats, 10 are from states that Bush won in 2000. Out of 15 Republicans, only 3 are from states that Gore won in 2000.

3. 2004 is a presidential election year, in which ideology will matter and the top of the ticket will matter. I'd expect President Bush to be a strong candidate for re-election and also help with fund-raising for GOP candidates, like he did in 2002.

4. Democratic hatred of President Bush is forcing "moderate" Democrats up for re-election in 2004 to take up a much more hardline position than they'd like to. Their controversial votes in the Senate over the next two years will provide ample fodder for GOP campaign ads.

I'll be "conservative" and make Republicans seem more vulnerable than they really are, and Democrats stronger than they really are. With that in mind, here's what the outlook is like:

Vulnerable Republicans

1. Peter Fitzgerald (IL) - Fitzgerald would likely have lost his seat in 2004 if he'd decided to run. Instead, he's decided not to run. The Democrats will likely pick up this seat (Illinois has been trending Democratic and Gore won by 12 points in 2000.) If Republicans recruit former Governor Jim Edgar, they might stand a fair chance; but that looks unlikely at this point. UPDATE: Edgar has announced that he isn't running for this seat. Oh, well.

2. Lisa Murkowski (D-AK) - Murkowski was appointed by her father to fill out his Senate term when he was elected governor in 2002. She may have to face a tough primary because she's not considered conservative enough. In the general election, though, the only Democrat who could give the Republicans a run for their money is former Governor Tony Knowles. Even so this seat is likely going to remain Republican. UPDATE: Knowles has jumped into the race. That makes things quite interesting.

3. Arlen Specter (PA) - "Scottish Law" Specter has a very low ACU rating and even helped "Bork" Robert Bork. He is facing a well-funded primary challenge from GOP Congressman and Club For Growth prodigy Pat Toomey. Specter's voting record has become much more conservative since Toomey announced his challenge; this is going to be an interesting race to watch. And don't fret about Toomey being too conservative to win in the general election. He's a superb candidate, like Pennsylvania's other senator, Rick Santorum, and will be able to win swing voters.

4. John McCain (AZ) - A lot of ticked-off conservatives will make sure McCain gets a tough primary from a genuine conservative like Club For Growth protege Jeff Flake. UPDATE: Flake will not challenge John McCain for his seat in 2004. Pity. McCain could have used a good scare.

5. Ben Nighthorse Campbell (CO) - Will Campbell retire? It's looking like he'll probably stay on and sleep-walk to victory.

6. Jim Bunning (KY) - Bunning looked vulnerable before, but looks much safer now because his best potential challenger, governor Paul Patton, couldn't keep it in his pants.

Vulnerable Democrats

1. Zell Miller (GA) - As I predicted, Zell Miller is retiring. Republicans will likely pick up this seat; it's just a question of which candidate will be nominated. I'd prefer a genuine conservative like Congressman Jack Kingston to a mushy moderate like Congressman Johnny Isaakson. Isaakson is running, but Kingston and other conservatives are, surprisingly, yet to throw their hats into the ring. UPDATE: GOP Congressman Mac Collins has entered the race. Collins is a genuine conservative. UPDATE 2: Herman Cain, a conservative African-American pizza magnate, has jumped into the race for the Republican nomination. Cain is, apparently, a good candidate and makes this race much more interesting, especially considering that the possible Democratic nominees are all black.

2. Fritz Hollings (SC) - Whether Hollings retires or not, the GOP is likely to pick up this seat. Hollings, who will be 82 in 2004, just might retire and make this even easier for the GOP. His intentions are as vague as ever; but Republican Congressman Jim DeMint is already running and will give Hollings a high hurdle to jump. UPDATE: State Superintendent of Education Inez Tenenbaum says she's "enthusiastic" about running if Hollings retires. Hollings says he'd like to retire if a suitable replacement can be found; so this is likely going to be a Burr-Tenenbaum race.

3. Blanche Lincoln (AR) - Popular governor Mike Huckabee can probably take out lightweight Lincoln. Sources say he's getting ready to run. Popular former congressman and current DEA Administrator Asa Hutchinson has been making trips to Arkansas, stroking speculation that he might run for the Senate in 2004. Either of these GOPers would prove a major headache for Lincoln.

4. Harry Reid (NV) - Senate Democratic Whip Harry Reid always wins his seat by tiny margins. GOP Rep. Jim Gibbons is gearing up to challenge him in 2004 and he'll probably face another tough re-election fight. Having Bush at the top of the ticket just might be enough to tip the scales against him. UPDATE: A bitter fight over the state budget has resulted in maneuvers that may bring a conservative backlash at the polls in 2004. That's bad for Reid, of course.

5. Tom Daschle (SD) - Losing 2002 GOP candidate John Thune is looking increasingly to run (as a contributor to his 2002 campaign, I just got a letter asking for contributions for a new group he's starting, which looks like a jumping-off point for a 2004 run.) If Thune runs, this race will be a tossup, thanks to Daschle's outrageous comments and the fact that he's no longer Senate Majority Leader. Daschle will have to spend time and money on his own race, rather than helping other Democrats.

5. Chuck Schumer (NY) - Republicans will take back Al D'Amato's seat from Schumer if Rudy Guiliani decides to run for the senate. Rudy's been travelling around the country saying that he'll stay in the private sector for "a couple of years." Hmmm. That lines up nicely with 2004. With Schumer being a fund-raising machine, this would be the same sort of blowout race that Clinton-Giuliani was becoming in 2000.

6. John Edwards (NC) - I'm not sure what the liberal media establishment sees in this wildly gesticulating, empty-headed, pretty-boy trial lawyer (to consider him Presidential Material!) With a job approval rating of 43%, Edwards is in trouble in his home state. You can bet his challenger will do a much better job than bumbling senator Lauch Faircloth, whom Edwards toppled in 1998. Edwards' presidential campaign isn't going very well and he's moving ever-leftwards to gain the affections of Democratic presidential primary voters. When his presidential campaign inevitably fails, he'll be facing a tough challenge back home from GOP Congressman Richard Burr. UPDATE: A new poll has bad news for Edwards. His re-elect percentage is just 32 and he holds just a 47-36 lead over Burr, who is still unknown to half the voters.

7. Bob Graham (FL) - Bob Graham is the most frustratingly indecisive man in politics today. He takes weeks or months to make up his mind on things and almost always ends up making a hardline partisan Democratic decision. He's done the same with his run for the presidency, vacillating for months. And he promised not to run for the Senate if he ran for the presidency, only to go back on that pledge. This hardline leftist deserves to lose his seat. Unfortunately, Florida voters will probably re-elect him if he runs for the Senate after losing the presidential nomination. Regardless of whether Graham retires or not, though, he'll get a good challenge from GOP Congressman Mark Foley. If Graham retires, this seat will lean Republican and someone like HUD Secretary Mel Martinez would make a strong GOP candidate. UPDATE: Mel Martinez won't run in 2004. Given the lack of strength on the Democratic bench, though, this seat is still eminently winnable for the Republicans.

8. Patty Murray (WA) - Osama Mama could have been beaten by GOP Congresswoman Jennifer Dunn (my congresswoman.) A recent poll showed the two neck-and-neck; but Dunn decided not to challenge Murray, leaving speaker-slaying Congressman George Nethercutt as the only credible challenger. If Nethercutt runs, he'll give Murray a tough challenge; but she'll probably squeak home. Unless the networks call Florida for Bush early in the day.

8. Byron Dorgan (ND) - Dorgan and Kent Conrad did a merry two-step in the early 90s to provide very conservative North Dakota with two hard left senators. Former governor Ed Schafer, however, could make life very uncomfortable for Dorgan if he decides to challenge him.

9. Russ Feingold (WI) - Arch-liberal Feingold has the same problem as Harry Reid. He's far too liberal for his swing state. UPDATE: Former Congressman Mark Neumann, who almost beat Feingold in 1998, is looking for a rematch in 2004. This could be a hot race. UPDATE 2: Politics1.com has issued an update saying that Neumann may actually be looking at a race in 2006 against Senator Herb Kohl

10. Barbara Boxer (CA) - Ultra-leftie Boxer can be beaten if Republicans can recruit a strong (read pro-choice) challenger and Bush wins by a landslide at the top of the ticket. Republicans are trying to get former Senator and Governor Pete Wilson to run against Boxer in California. Another potential candidate is US Treasurer Rosario Marin, who's Hispanic. UPDATE: Marin is moving back to California. Will she challenge Boxer? UPDATE 2: Marin has entered the race. This has the potential to become a very close race.

11. UPDATE: Senator John Breaux (D-LA) isn't sure whether he wants to run for re-election in 2004. Breaux says he'll wait for the 2003 gubernatorial campaign to end before making a decision. If Breaux doesn't run, this seat will be wide open.

[NYC Republican]

I wonder if Terrell would run again... I've got to believe she'd have a great shot at it, though she wasn't all that impressive vs. Hildabeast wannabe Landrieu.

[kellynla]

KNOCKOUT BOXER IN '04! VOTE FOR CHRIS COX! KNOCKOUT BOXER VOTE 4 COX! http://cox.house.gov/

[ken5050]

Hollings is going to retire, but he's been asked to delay his announcement, because once he goes public, it's an automatic pick-up for the GOP, and thus it makes it virtually impossible for the adems to retake the senate..which means they can't recruit candidates or raise money.....Breaux is gonna retire too, because he doesn't want to spend another term in the minorioty..it's no fun..especially since he really belongs in the GOP....but like Zell Miler, he's doing the "honorable thing"..from his perspective..however, in LA, my long shot prediction, as you know I w rote here some months ago, is that if Breaux retires..Dona Brazile runs....and she just might win it..

[Alberta's Child]

This analysis is out of date, from New York's perspective. The lastest speculation out of New York is that Schumer won't even be facing a viable Republican candidate in 2004 -- Giuliani is seriously considering a run for the governor's mansion in 2006.

[comebacknewt]

Maybe GWB can offer him the Secretary of Energy position again and help make his decision easier.

[Pern]

I'm hoping Gov. Mike Foster will run for Breaux's seat. During last year's election, the press hinted as to him running against Mary Landreau, and she was sweating bullets until he decided not to run.

He'd make a great Senator, because he's been a great governor.

[GiveEmDubya]

I hope Cox runs, in California that is.

This is for Louisiana, where John Breaux is the Senator.

[GiveEmDubya]

Oh wait I see stuff for California on there too.

[tictoc]

Nobody is asking why Sen. John Breaux is thinking about not defending his seat in 2004, nor is anyone asking what the "something else to do with my life" is going to be.

Might Breaux be planning to announce his late entry into the presidential primary? No one in the current bunch of candidates has a chance of beating Dubya, so the Dems may be planning to pull a rabbit of out of a hat; as a moderate, centrist Southerner, Breaux fits the bill.

[kellynla]

Yea well if you scroll down the article you'll find the rest of the field.

[MattinNJ]

Any thoughts on who the best GOP candidate would be in your home state for an open seat?

[BibChr]

Would that be good? Isn't Breaux, in spite of his dead eyes, one of the 2-3 Demo's in the entire nation who on rare occasion has two neurons fire in correct sequence?

Dan

[AntiGuv]

While linked in this latest item, the Senate commentary is out of date - from April 17, 2003. FWIW, both Ed Schafer in North Dakota and Asa Hutchinson in Arkansas are now considered unlikely to run.

[GiveEmDubya]

I corrected myself in post #8.

[Alberta's Child]

Breaux is simply tired of being a useless senator in the minority party, and I'm guessing that a lot of these Democrats are convinced that they ain't going to regain control of the Senate for a long time.

I can't see why the Democratic Party would want him to jump into the 2004 presidential race -- senators typically make for very poor presidential candidates. Which is why Howard Dean is going to be the nominee next year unless Hillary Clinton decides to run.

[eureka!]

This looks like a thread you might want to check out....

[ken5050]

Not in a million years....

[Sparta]

My congressman David Vitter, who is pretty conservative. Though in an open seat, it will be between him and our current RINO governor Mike Foster. As for the Democrats, their best candidate is Congressman Chris John, a somewhat conservative Dim.

[Sparta]

Then again, we're just worried about having a conservative candidate in the runoff for governor this year.

[MattinNJ]

If Shafer doesn't run, is there a strong GOP candidate to step in? I just can't believe the GOP can't take out those two uber liberals in ND.

[kellynla]

Yea, well I am just getting an early jump on the election cycle. I am pushing Cox to run. We've got the Dimwit Davis in the toaster now we've got to eject the nitwit Boxer. LOL

[NYC Republican]

This analysis is out of date, from New York's perspective. The lastest speculation out of New York is that Schumer won't even be facing a viable Republican candidate in 2004 -- Giuliani is seriously considering a run for the governor's mansion in 2006.

Good point. He's usually good about updating the predictions, but you're right, NO ONE is going to challenge up-Chuck Schumer.

[Deport Billary]

Edwards is up 47-39, after being ahead by 18 points in February. But the Raleigh N&O article reads "State Warming to Edwards." Tough love I guess...

[GiveEmDubya]

Trust me, I would love to see Boxer get booted, but first we need to nominate someone with a chance of winning for a change. I hope Cox runs--do you think he would be strong enough to win?

[GraniteStateConservative]

If we can boost our margins in the Senate, Cox will be on the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals-- what he really wants to do with the rest of his life.

Impeachment Mgr. Jim Rogan has said he'd like to run to replace him in a special election. His wife is from Cox's district.

Other Republicans under consideration for the Cox seat include Orange County Supervisor Todd Spitzer, state Assemblyman Bill Campbell, state Sen. Ross Johnson, and millionaire Mark Chapin Johnson.

[GraniteStateConservative]

Just appointing a guy like Lieberman or Breaux doesn't equal winning the WH. They'd lose support from liberals in places like WA, MN, WI, etc. So, maybe they win LA or AR, but they lose other bigger states up north and still lose the WH.

[AntiGuv]

Governor Hoeven is reportedly disinterested as well and there's not really any other obvious challenger. One of the elected state officers may go for it but that seems unlikely.

[AntiGuv]

And BTW, there's been one poll taken in Alaska, although it was a Democratic firm polling. In any case, Ivan Moore Research had Knowles ahead of Murkowski by 52% to 40%. Doesn't matter much either way this early, but that seat most definitely 'leans' Democrat in my view.. It's quite tough to defeat any governor running for senate, even in a conservative state and especially with a part-term appointee who has serious problems with her base.

Jeanne Shaheen was the exception, not the rule.

[Kuksool]

I strongly doubt Murphy Foster is going to run for the Senate in 2004. He is in his 70's. It is unclear whether Breaux is going run for re-election. Breaux is probably waiting to see how this Fall's Governor's race turns out.

In the event of a Breaux retirement, I would rate an open Senate race in LA as a toss-up, if the match up is between David Vitter vs. Chris John. However, if David Vitter decides not to run, then an open LA Senate seat would fall to the Dems. The talent pool in the LA GOP is thin.

[MattinNJ]

ND is a state I can't figure out-if it is so solidly GOP, how come they can't field a strong challenger? Even here in socialist NJ we have plenty of strong conservatives-it's just that they don't stand a chance of winning state wide elections.

[Kuksool]

So far, the only GOP candidate who interested in inciting a Boxer Rebellion is Rosario Marin. The White House is pushing her candidacy because she is Hispanic. Whether or not if Rosario Marin can drain away Boxer's Latino support remains to be seen.

http://www.rosarioforsenate.com/

[AntiGuv]

The Dakotas generally want Republicans in the White House & the Governors Mansion to keep taxes down and Democrats in the Congress to bring home the agri-pork. That's the basic answer. They also have fewer high-profile offices/positions for up & comers to make themselves known & challenge the D hold on the congressional seats. That being said, the GOP will likely take over those seats unless the Dems have a revival on the Plains, but it'll most likely be whenever the seats are open.

[Coop]

This looks like a thread you might want to check out....

Thank you kindly

[Coop]

And BTW, there's been one poll taken in Alaska, although it was a Democratic firm polling. In any case, Ivan Moore Research had Knowles ahead of Murkowski by 52% to 40%.

The NRSC released a poll from early May showing Lisa up 46-43%. Not too bad, given Knowles' name recognition and popularity. I'm not sure I'd say "leans Dem," given the GOP strength in AK, but this should be a close race.

[Kuksool]

It is a shame that Asa Hutchinson is not interested in running for the Senate in 2004. He would the strongest candidate to challenge Blanche Lincoln. Gov. Mike Huckabee hasn't expressed much interest in the Senate race. He said he wanted to tend to state matters first, before pondering about a possible Senate race. Economic downturns and budget deficits have caused Gov. Huckabee's popularity to drop down considerably. If Gov. Huckabee does run for the Senate, he will join Jeanne Shaheen as the exception of Governors losing Senate races.

[GraniteStateConservative]

So Huckabee should run against Lincoln?

[princess leah]

Well, Karl Rove is sure to have his hand on the pulse of these states and if he can do as well as in 2002, then I feel pretty optomistic...I think Pataki should think about a run at the senate against Schumer and then Guiliani take on Hillary in 06...However, with him having had pancreatic cancer, he may not wait that long...Rudy wins against Schumer or Clinton...If Pataki goes for it, does the Lt. Gov take over until the next election?

[Kuksool]

Ping!

2004 Senate Race Update

[MattinNJ]

Excellent analysis. Thanks, that has been perplexing me for a while.

[Alberta's Child]

I suspect that after the Democrats in Congress voted to keep ANWR closed to oil and gas exploration, any Democrat running for that seat will have a tough hill to climb.

[ought-six]

"I wonder if Terrell would run again... I've got to believe she'd have a great shot at it, though she wasn't all that impressive vs. Hildabeast wannabe Landrieu."

I think she's put her hat in the ring for Louisiana Attorney General.

[CoolPapaBoze]

On the surface, you're right, Breaux could be a good choice for the Dems. A Southerner, to the right of most Dems, frequently aligning with Republicans in the Senate, but there's one thing you're forgetting: he's from Louisiana and is an Edwin Edwards crony. I suspect John has skeletons aplenty in his closet. It's not hard to keep them there in a statewide race, but you can take it to the bank that they would be out of the closet like a jailbreak in a national contest. I don't see him taking that risk.

[No Dems 2004]

I think this a very interesting take. I've also analysed all these races and I think the GOP has an excellent chance of making numerous pick-ups next November. It's also very interesting to see what happening in Lousiana.

[NYC Republican]

If the economy continues in an upward trajectory, then we could easily have 55 Senate seats, if not more.

[lasereye]

I wonder if Terrell would run again... I've got to believe she'd have a great shot at it, though she wasn't all that impressive vs. Hildabeast wannabe Landrieu.

The Dems will just spread a last minute rumor about a cut in sugar subsidies again.

[NYC Republican]

The Dems will just spread a last minute rumor about a cut in sugar subsidies again

Can you believe they did that? Nothing is beneath them...

[jackbill]

I suspect John has skeletons aplenty in his closet.

Ask Edie Hill.

[goldensky]

the talent pool in the LA GOP is thin

boy, you've got that right. The LA GOP is made up of two parts: The Woody Jenkins-type conservatives who will never be elected in a state with New Orleans in it, and republicans who put the INO in RINO.