I have a serious question. What was the main reason that so many thought that Dewey would defeat Truman in 1948? (Was it the Macarthur dismissal?)
posted on 07/28/2003 3:34:31 PM PDT
Had to answer my own question; there are a lot of answers. One is that polling wasn't very well developed; two is that the pollsters drew their conclusions early; three is that there was a three-way split in the Democratic Party over civil rights (remember when Strom Thurmond ran for President as a Dixiecrat?) and more liberal Democrats on the other side. Truman was a moderate in all of this.
The main danger for Bush might be a possible schism by far-right social conservatives (erroneously termed the "Religious Right"), but I'm not too worried about it right now.
posted on 07/28/2003 3:39:42 PM PDT
The predictions were based on telephone polling, which was in its infancy. A much larger proportion of Republicans than Democrats had phones then, and this factor wasn't taken into account.
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