INTEREST-RATE MOVES WARN THE ECONOMY MAY BE BROKEN

NY POST ^ | 08.05.03 | JOHN CRUDELE

[Beck_isright]

"Wait a minute. With a Democratic President, the economic cycle was "cured" or "transended"; however with a Republican President, the economic cycle is "broke". How did that happen - am I missing something here..."

You are. It was stated in the late 90's that the expansion was a mirage, created on falsified information and the mania of such notable companies like Pets.com, etc. It was broken in the early 90's with the Bush Sr. and Klintoon tax increases. Now it's up to W and the idiots in Congress (God help us) to actually address the problem instead of putting lipstick on the pig and calling it a beauty queen.

[Beck_isright]

"Crudele doesn't have a clue. He should read a little instead of writing."

Are you willing to say that John Templeton and Warren Buffett are clueless also? If so, please let us know if you have larger bank accounts than them.

[Phaedrus]

Terrible article. I could care less how much money he has.

[Beck_isright]

"I believe the economy is improving and will continue to improve. At what rate I am uncertain and so is the bond market. I just think bonds got ahead of themselves, perhaps a good trading opportunity."

As much as I would love to think that is the case, do you know the last time we had a decline in bonds at this pace? August, 1987.

Someone is losing confidence in our economy and or central bank, and the big money players have been speaking in private groups stating as much. This is different from 1987 and before. We've never owed this much money nor been owed this much from Latin America, etc. The bill has to be paid some day. I fear our children will be paying it with a 12% 30 year bond again, or worse.

[Beck_isright]

When you make as much money as John Templeton or Warren Buffet, you can speak wisely about the problems that are systemic to this economy. The author of this article just scratches the surface. There is a lot more to this than you think.

[NittanyLion]

I'm worried. I think the market has been propped up by the Fed and a misperception of the economy. Interest rates can't go any lower, and if the perception changes we could be in for a rough time...

[P.O.E.]

If I had my 'druthers, I'll take the current value of my pensions & Social Security payouts now. I think I could do a better job at putting the money to good use as a store of value to be drawn down at a later date.

And, although nobody asked me, I think the real reason we have such open immigration is to provide cash cows to pay current and future Social Security transfers. It just pushes the problem out further a few decades, but it doesn't solve the underlying value proposition.

[Beck_isright]

I disagree on one aspect. Interest rates (Fed Funds) can go lower. They can go to zero. That will have a positive short term economic effect but destroy the money market funds completely. The pereception will not change until after the election and inaguration of W for his second term. The only things that could change it in the short term is a major terrorist attack or bank collapse.

[Beck_isright]

I wish I could also. What concerns me more is that Social Security and other welfare instruments are being paid out to the illegals thus draining the system further. At some point the door must be closed and Social Security restored to it's initial intent. Since neither will happen, the consequences of the ineptness of our leaders will bankrupt our country in the coming two decades.

[helper]

We can't predict, but can prepare.

[jriemer]

"Wait a minute. With a Democratic President, the economic cycle was "cured" or "transended"; however with a Republican President, the economic cycle is "broke". How did that happen - am I missing something here..."

You are. It was stated in the late 90's that the expansion was a mirage, created on falsified information and the mania of such notable companies like Pets.com, etc. It was broken in the early 90's with the Bush Sr. and Klintoon tax increases. Now it's up to W and the idiots in Congress (God help us) to actually address the problem instead of putting lipstick on the pig and calling it a beauty queen.

I forgot to put the darn [/sarcam] tag on the end of my post. If you could convert spin into hard profits, there wouldn't have been a .com bomb or a telecom crunch. I was trying to point out that when it was "their guy" everything was running like a Swiss watch and now it's suddenly a "disaster".

The Democrats and Media crucified Bush back in the 2000 election for "talking down the economy" when he was calling a spade a spade. We were gimping along and no-one on that side of the aisle wanted to hear it. Now, things are just barely starting to perk up and the same bunch doesn't want things to improve. They're living in a Bizzaro anti-universe from reality.

[1Old Pro]

Dow bounces on bond rebound; tech slide continues

[billhilly]

I'm with you. In the 70s and 80s I knew a well known pollster who was always weighing consumer confidence and it was often said of him, "he has predicted five of the last two recessions."

[P.O.E.]

Thought you might find this related article regarding future gov't liabilities interesting.

[CyberAnt]

THEY'RE ALLLLLLLLLL WRONG!! I just find that so hard to believe - so very unrealistic! You're saying 118 people who supposedly study all the same information and they are all wrong ..?? I'm confident there were some who didn't agree. But the report I read said the "general consensus" was that the economy was stable and ready for an upturn - which they predicted would be soon.

[A CA Guy]

I think this has always been about avoiding a big crash by bottoming out CD rates (old people's money), to cause the banking industry to still prosper (Avoiding a payout with FDIC money increasing the debt nationally) all to slow the down-slide as the recovery meets it with some recovery...IMO!