Schwarzenegger seizes early lead(NBC News poll on California recall)

MSNBC ^ | 8/11/03

[Dane]

Aug. 11 — Most California voters believe Gov. Gray Davis should be thrown out of office, and more of them favor actor Arnold Schwarzenegger to take his place than any of the almost 200 other candidates in the Oct. 7 recall election, according to a new NBC News survey....

Schwarzenegger: 31 percent
Bustamante: 18 percent
Simon: 6 percent
Ueberroth: 6 percent
McClintock: 4 percent
Huffington: 4 percent
Other: 3 percent
Not voting: 3 percent
Not sure: 26 percent

[Dane]

.

[AntiGuv]

Yes on Recall: 59%
No on Recall: 35%

[Dane]

USA TODAY/CNN/Gallup poll results(California recall, 8/11/03)

[Dog Gone]

Ueberroth: 6 percent
McClintock: 4 percent
Huffington: 4 percent

Some people around here need to quit kidding themselves. If Ueberroth is outpolling McClintock today, then our first choice has very little chance.

It's either going to be Ah-nold or a Democrat.

[rwfromkansas]

I have to agree unfortunately. Simon outpolls McClintock for crying out loud and that loser failed to beat Davis.

[BunnySlippers]

Isn't it odd that the McClintock figures in the FR poll going on now aren't a little more proportionate?

[ambrose]

No, because Freepers strike me more as being people of principle, not star struck celeb chasers.

[AntiGuv]

Not really. FR is more conservative than the average GOPer - much less the overall electorate - and Arnold is probably picking up a number of indie & dem votes as well.

[SwinneySwitch]

Voters are a fickle lot!;^}

Give 'em hell, Arnold!

[cyncooper]

Mike Barnacle in for Chris Matthews (thank God, Matthews has been unwatchable lately) and showed this poll.

Bob Dornan is jazzed.

[cyncooper]

It's either going to be Ah-nold or a Democrat.

That was the consensus of Brit's roundtable. Also when they mentioned the top four candidates they said Simon but did not mention McClintock. Now I see why (previous poll I'd seen had TM lightly ahead of Simon).

[george wythe]

California political affiliations in 2002

In the last six years the percentage of voters in California registering as Democrats has dropped more than two points to slightly less than 45 percent. Republican registration has declined during the same time period by a bit less than two points to about 35 percent. A few voters have become Libertarians or Greens, but the biggest jump has been Decline to State: rising from 10.6 percent six years ago to 14.76 percent today.

Democrats 45%
Republicans 35%

Now I'm wondering if 10% of the voters are supporting Simon/McClintock, then only 25% of Republicans are left in play.

Of that 25% of the voting universe, at least some might be either undecided or supporting a minor candidate like Ueberroth.

Schwarzenegger only has 31% of the voters on his corner; it's obvious that he's attracting non-Republicans to his tent.

Am I doing this math right?

[habs4ever]

Good people of principle need to win to try to have that stuff put into practice.Winning comes first.Perhaps you have completely misread and misjudged what the issues in this recall are all about?

[cyncooper]

Independents yes.

So far poll show not much dem crossover for AS. 10% is only number I've seen and that is not as much as I'd thought. Dem hatred of Republicans is trumping the appeal of even a Schwarzenegger.

Also some here on FR have been more than a little disingenuous in their representations of Schwarzenegger's politics and he is correctly perceived by the dems as not a liberal.

[ambrose]

Bump.

The Free Republic has been overrun by RINOs. Kind of amazing.

[Dog Gone]

You're calling me a RINO?

[IpaqMan]

It seems that all of the recent polls are in agreement on
DUMP DAVIS and elect SCHWARZENEGGER by large margins.

[george wythe]

These polls are completely worthless

They are not completely worthless, because such polls induced Democrats to crack and have Bust-a-Monte on the ballot, weakening the right-wing coup attempt argument.

As far as predicting the actual outcome, I would agree that it's still too early to tell.

The major Republican candidates should stay on the ballot a while longer, but if after 4 weeks they don't get any traction, they should quit; and that applies to every major Republican candidate from Simon to Schwartzenegger.

[habs4ever]

I thought the popularity of "true" conservatives was sooooo much higher in California than this poll indicates? How could I been led such a dance, and can I get a refund?