[Field] Poll Finds Governor's Support Still Eroding [Bustamante-25%.. Schwarzenegger-22%]

New York Times ^ | 8-15-2003 | DEAN E. MURPHY

[deport]

Poll Finds Governor's Support Still Eroding

By DEAN E. MURPHY

AN FRANCISCO, Aug. 15 — A new statewide opinion poll shows that Gov. Gray Davis of California continues to lose support in his effort to keep his job, while Lt. Gov. Cruz M. Bustamante and Arnold Schwarzenegger, the actor, are at the top of the list of possible successors.

Mr. Davis, who faces a recall election on Oct. 7, has become so unpopular among registered voters that the pollsters, Field Research, likened his standing to that of President Richard M. Nixon before he resigned in August 1974.

"We've been doing polling for 56 years, and the current rating of the governor, 70 percent disapproval, is equivalent to the lowest job rating we have ever measured for an elected official," said Mark DiCamillo, director of the Field (California) Poll.

In the first half of the poll of 1,036 Califorinians, which was released today, 58 percent of likely voters said they favored removing Mr. Davis from office, up from 51 percent last month.

Asked whether they thought he would be recalled, 68 percent said yes.

In the second half of the poll, to be released on Saturday, Mr. Bustamante, a Democrat, and Mr. Schwarzenegger, a Republican, placed well ahead of the 133 other candidates on the ballot. The recall ballot will pose two questions. First, should Mr. Davis be recalled, and second, who should succeed him if he loses?
The survey showed that 25 percent of likely voters favored Mr. Bustamante, while 22 percent said Mr. Schwarzenegger was their first choice. Three other Republicans followed the front-runners, with State Senator Tom McClintock picking up 9 percent, Bill Simon Jr. 8 percent and Peter V. Ueberroth 5 percent.

The margin of error in the poll was plus or minus 5 percent.

Mr. DiCamillo said the ranking of the candidates, even with the margin of error, showed that Republicans voters were dividing their votes among the top four Republican candidates and that Democrats had more or less settled on Mr. Bustamante, the lone prominent Democrat on the replacement ballot.

"It is one of the problems that the state Republican Party has had over the years, that they have not been able to come up with consensus candidates," Mr. DiCamillo said.

That said, the poll suggested that many voters had yet to settle firmly on one candidate. Forty-four percent of likely voters indicated that they might change their mind before Oct. 7.

Peter Ragone, a spokesman for Californians Against the Costly Recall, a group formed by Mr. Davis, said the recall had been so volatile that it would be unwise to place much credence on any poll.

"It is like trying to grab a fistful of water," Mr. Ragone said. "It is so fluid. The polls that have been out there have been all over the map for the past several weeks."

Mr. Davis, in an appearance in Los Angeles, did not talk about the polls. Instead, he criticized remarks by Warren Buffett, a newly named economics adviser to Mr. Schwarzenegger, about property taxes.

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal, Mr. Buffett suggested that the state's property taxes were too low, something that Mr. Schwarzenegger's opponents portrayed today as an assault on Proposition 13, the ballot measure from 1978 that limits on property taxes.

"The people spoke," Mr. Davis said, "and all of us who have held office since then have honored the will of the electorate. Lord knows, we have some things that cost a lot of money in this state. But property taxes are not one of them, and no one is about to change that."

[Dog Gone]

Mr. DiCamillo said the ranking of the candidates, even with the margin of error, showed that Republicans voters were dividing their votes among the top four Republican candidates and that Democrats had more or less settled on Mr. Bustamante, the lone prominent Democrat on the replacement ballot.

How to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, page 1.

[Those_Crazy_Liberals]

If McClintock and Simon were real conservatives, they would do whatever it took - including withdrawing from the race - to insure a democrat was not elected. Somehow, I don't think they're really conservatives.

[Carry_Okie]

Three other Republicans followed the front-runners, with State Senator Tom McClintock picking up 9 percent, Bill Simon Jr. 8 percent and Peter V. Ueberroth 5 percent.

McClintock up 5% in 72 hours, and already ahead of Simon. It won't take long and they won't be able to continue deliberately ignoring him.

[sruleoflaw]

NO, maybe Arnold needs to withdraw instead of McClintock pulling out.

[07055]

Reminds me of how Clinton won in 1992 with only 42% of the vote because the Republicans split their vote between Bush and Perot.

[Carry_Okie]

If McClintock and Simon were real conservatives, they would do whatever it took - including withdrawing from the race - to insure a democrat was not elected. Somehow, I don't think they're really conservatives.

If Gerry Parsky and Carl Rove were real Republicans, they wouldn't have run Ahnold Schwartznegger.

[deport]

Who said anything about winning on the Repub side. Now the Democrats have figured that process out long ago.

With luck maybe the lower tier will drop out as the election day comes approaches and support the leading contender at that time..... we'll see.

[vbmoneyspender]

reminds me of how Clinton won in 1992 with only 42% of the vote because the Republicans split their vote between Bush and Perot.

I thought Clinton won because Bush broke his no new taxes pledge.

[deport]

comes = comes

[rwfromkansas]

Uh huh...yeah...come on.

Bustamante would pick up a good number of votes, some would not vote at all, and McClintock's gain would not be big enough to take over the lead.

It is Arnold or Bustamante.

End of story.

[Dog Gone]

Oh, I think they're really conservatives. What I don't think is that they're being realistic.

Why Simon has any conservative support, I do not know. He's the Al Gore of the Republican party. Old news. He blew it.

Take some time off, Bill. Like maybe eight years.

McClintock is more interesting, but I don't think he has a chance, either. Not against the media monster that Ah-nold is extremely skillful at manipulating. Schwarzenegger has made it safe for Democrats to support him, while not making a single policy pronouncement. No other candidate could ever accomplish that.

I think a conservative California governor would have a short and unsuccessful term. Perhaps I'm wrong. But I'd rather see McClintock take on Barbara Boxer than seek this job.

[McGavin999]

How to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, page 1.

Yep, they do it every time. Rather than getting together, deciding who has the best chance to win (and turn that state around) they'll fight to the bitter end and spend the next 4 decades moaning about how bad California has become.

Sigh, I'm sick of Californians moving to Arizona and trying to make this once conservative state as liberal as California.

[MattAMiller]

I'm not buying it. The polls have been volatile but this is nuts. Arnold's been consistently leading by two digit margins and now he's trailing Bustamonte?

[Xthe17th]

Here's a Catch 22 for ya:
22 percent said Mr. Schwarzenegger = Tom McClintock picking up 9 percent + Bill Simon Jr. 8 percent + Peter V. Ueberroth 5 percent.

22 = 9+8+5 so guess it won't matter if Simon bails to back McClintock. That's only 17. Big Arnie ain't gonna budge and busting him down to help conservative(s) just helps Bustamonte - Catch 22.

[deport]

McClintock up 5% in 72 hours, and already ahead of Simon.

---

Do you have a three day old Field Poll you are comparing to? Then it's apples and oranges.....

It would also be nice to see what the turnout ratios the poll is using. This maybe a hard election to get accurate numbers on because turnout may not follow normal elections.

[Dog Gone]

I haven't seen any evidence that they're pulling Ah-nold's strings. If anything, I think they'd have liked Davis in there next year to continue California voter discontent with the Democrats.

[goldstategop]

Has anyone considered that Large Breasts and Arnold could end up splitting the Rat vote between them? Imagine what could happen if there was ONE conservative candidate in the field...

[FairOpinion]

"If McClintock and Simon were real conservatives, they would do whatever it took - including withdrawing from the race - to insure a democrat was not elected. Somehow, I don't think they're really conservatives. "

---

The GOP is pressuring them as well. And they are not listening.

GOP presses actor's rivals to quit. Leaders trying to clear the field for Schwarzenegger

San Diego -- GOP leaders are working overtime to persuade Republicans Bill Simon, Tom McClintock and Peter Ueberroth to drop out of the recall race to replace Democratic Gov. Gray Davis, clearing the field for action movie superstar Arnold Schwarzenegger.

Republicans are worried that the four big-name Republicans in the race will split the GOP vote and allow Democratic Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante to finish first in the replacement election, which would make him governor if Davis is recalled.

Simon reportedly went ballistic last week when Republican leaders tried to talk to him about leaving the race.

McClintock also is staying put.

[RonDog]

The survey showed that 25 percent of likely voters favored Mr. Bustamante, while 22 percent said Mr. Schwarzenegger was their first choice. Three other Republicans followed the front-runners, with State Senator Tom McClintock picking up 9 percent, Bill Simon Jr. 8 percent and Peter V. Ueberroth 5 percent.

Or, put more precisely, if the "stupid party" ever gets it's act together:

Bustamante - 25%
Schwarzenegger = 22% + McClintock 9% Simon 8% + Ueberroth 5% = 44% = LANDSLIDE!

If the "stupid party" remains true to form:

Bustamante - 25% = winner
Schwarzenegger = 22%
McClintock = 9%
Simon = 8%
Ueberroth = 5%

I prefer NOT to be a good solid conservative LOSER, who FEELS great, but suffers from continued RAT poison.