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Bush Re-elect Numbers Worsen; 43%-43% Bush vs. any Democratic Contender (Zogby Dem. Puke Poll)
Zogby ^ | 8/21/03

Posted on 08/21/2003 6:40:53 AM PDT by areafiftyone

President George W. Bush’s job performance rating has slipped to 52% positive, 48% negative, according to a poll of 1,011 likely U.S. voters by Zogby International.  From a post-September 11th peak of 82%, his rating has slipped steadily with the exception of a slight increase following the official end of the war in Iraq.  

Bush Job Performance

Event

Positive %

Negative %

August 16-19, 2003

Current

52

48

July 16-17, 2003

Current

53

46

June 10, 2003

Post Iraqi War

58

41

March 16, 2003

Pre Iraqi War

54

45

September 25, 2002

One year Post 9/11

64

36

September 23, 2001

Post 9/11

82

17

August 27, 2001

Pre 9/11

50

49

April 26, 2001

100 Days in Office

52

44

January 16, 2001

Pre Inauguration

42

36

   

The ‘down’ trend is also seen in the percent of likely voters who say it’s time for someone new in the White House (48%), compared to 45% who said the President deserves to be re-elected. 

Date

Re-Elect %

Someone New %

August 16-19, 2003

45

48

July 16-17, 2003

46

47

June 10, 2003

49

38

January 27, 2003

49

41

October 25, 2002

49

35

September 25, 2002

49

38

 

Nearly three in five (58%) respondents say they have a favorable opinion of the President as a person, while 40% say their opinion is unfavorable.  In July polling, his rating was 57% favorable, 42% unfavorable.

Date

% Favorable

% Unfavorable

August 16-19, 2003

58

40

July 16-17, 2003

57

42

January 27, 2003

66

33

July 22, 2002

72

25

April 5, 2002

82

17

July 30, 2001

57

36

February 15, 2001

64

14

Just over two in five (43%) likely voters say they would choose President Bush over a Democratic candidate, and a like number (43%) preferred a Democrat if the election were held today, compared to July polling by Zogby International where 48% would choose Bush and 43% would favor any Democrat.

The Zogby America poll involved 1,011 likely voters selected randomly from throughout the 48 contiguous states using listed residential telephone numbers.  Polling was conducted from Zogby International’s Call Center in Utica, NY on August 16-19, 2003. The poll has a margin of sampling error of +/- 3.2%.  

Additional tracking information can be seen at www.zogby.com, Trends Over Time.

 



TOPICS: Extended News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2004; demshill; electionpresident; polls; zogby
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1 posted on 08/21/2003 6:40:54 AM PDT by areafiftyone
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To: areafiftyone
Geezzz! I wonder why? It couldn't be all the bad press, could it? (sarcasm)
2 posted on 08/21/2003 6:44:22 AM PDT by shiva
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To: areafiftyone
Glad to see the liberal media whores are performing their propaganda job so well -- get DNC talking points, parrot same.
3 posted on 08/21/2003 6:44:47 AM PDT by CedarDave (The Dems look for a shadow on the brightest day, call it the dark of night and blame George W. Bush)
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To: areafiftyone
All the Republicans need to stop all the in-fighting and back-stabbing and concentrate on getting GWB re-elected - and I ain't just whistlin' dixie.
4 posted on 08/21/2003 6:45:58 AM PDT by Saundra Duffy (For victory & freedom!!!)
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To: areafiftyone
Maybe I've been under a rock, but I don't think I've seen a poll like this before. "Who would you pick, George W. Bush, or someone else?" I imagine it's easy to get a fairly high "someone" number. But if you get specific, won't it be 11% for Kerry, 12% for Dean, 3% for Sharpton -- and 48% for Bush?

I recall asking friends who were graduating college what kind of job they wanted.
"Oh, I'll take anything. Anything at all."
"Well, would you scoop ice cream?"
"Hell no!"

In the abstract, people are open to "someone else" but when it comes to particulars, it's a different story.

5 posted on 08/21/2003 6:46:23 AM PDT by ClearCase_guy (France delenda est)
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To: CedarDave

Wait a minute, guys.

Did any of you read this?

The Zogby America poll involved 1,011 likely voters selected randomly from throughout the 48 contiguous states using listed residential telephone numbers. 

Would any one of you like to have seen the questions on the poll? How the hell does "random selection" lead to an accurate result?

Damn push poll is what this is.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

6 posted on 08/21/2003 6:50:12 AM PDT by section9 (To see my blog, click on the Major!)
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To: ClearCase_guy
This poll would be the high water mark for the rats because it allows each rat to vote for his ideal rat candidate.

THat said, I find it interesting that Bush's poll numbers for August dates are consistant. I see a possible seasonal effect here.

7 posted on 08/21/2003 6:50:23 AM PDT by VRWC_minion (Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and most are right)
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To: areafiftyone
Relax. Come November 2004 we will see a landslide of Reaganesque proportions.

Reagan's numbers were not so good at the same point in his first term. Then came November 1984.

8 posted on 08/21/2003 6:50:47 AM PDT by Skooz (Tagline removed by moderator)
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To: areafiftyone
Q: "Do you feel safer with George Bush as President, or with Democrat candidate ___________."

Next question.

GWB will get our support, will win the election, will continue the fight. I recommend we focus our additional energies on expanding the margin in the Senate.

9 posted on 08/21/2003 6:50:51 AM PDT by Uncle Miltie (BULLDOZE AL AQSA!)
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To: areafiftyone
I used to be asked regularly to vote in Zogby's Online poll. I haven't been sent one in quite a while. Do you suppose I was weeded out because I *always* give President Bush the highest marks?
10 posted on 08/21/2003 6:51:19 AM PDT by Ditter
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To: areafiftyone
Zogby laying on the special sauce, that accurately predicted a Democratic landslide in 2002 (sarcasm on)
11 posted on 08/21/2003 6:51:28 AM PDT by prarie earth
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To: section9
Random polling is required for it to be valid.
12 posted on 08/21/2003 6:52:30 AM PDT by VRWC_minion (Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and most are right)
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To: Brad Cloven
Q: "Do you feel safer with George Bush as President, or with Democrat candidate Wesley Clark."

Not saying I'd support him personally, but I think a lot of people would vote yes to that question once the campaign season starts bubbling. Just a thought.
13 posted on 08/21/2003 6:53:05 AM PDT by El Che Vive
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To: areafiftyone
All this says to me is....

GAME ON!
14 posted on 08/21/2003 6:54:24 AM PDT by j_k_l
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To: El Che Vive
Uh. It isn't a "yes/no" question.

But maybe you're right.

15 posted on 08/21/2003 6:56:21 AM PDT by Skooz (Tagline removed by moderator)
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Comment #16 Removed by Moderator

To: areafiftyone
Didn't the Zogby poll said that Jeb was going to lose to McBride?
17 posted on 08/21/2003 7:02:00 AM PDT by KevinDavis (Let the meek inherit the Earth, the rest of us will explore the stars!)
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To: BattleRoyale

Possibly. However, I would suspect that statistical accuracy would have been increased had Zogby done the same poll several times. Now perhaps he did.

If this is accurate, we'll be in for a rough patch until the economy improves demonstrably. However, Zogby's record in 2002 was nothing to write home about.

Be Seeing You,

Chris

18 posted on 08/21/2003 7:03:01 AM PDT by section9 (To see my blog, click on the Major!)
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To: areafiftyone
Is the pollster a member of the peaceful religion?
19 posted on 08/21/2003 7:04:09 AM PDT by mabelkitty
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To: mabelkitty
He sure is. Heard the peaceful religion is being targed by the Dems as a major voting block. Interesting how they know what group is the most gullible!
20 posted on 08/21/2003 7:08:48 AM PDT by areafiftyone (The U.N. needs a good Flush!)
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To: ClearCase_guy
Not only that, but someone might answer "Heck, I'd vote for (insert Republican here) over GW" and that would count as someone else- the question didn't say specifically a democrat someone else, but the analysis at the bottom claimed it did.

21 posted on 08/21/2003 7:08:48 AM PDT by Vesuvian
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To: areafiftyone
Well, vs. generic Democrat is probably going to look worse than vs. specific Democrat.

Also, the economy is improving, but not quite there yet.

And, undoubtedly, W has lost some of the conservative base. He can probably get it back by ignoring Rove, and vetoing the AW ban or something along those lines.

22 posted on 08/21/2003 7:12:20 AM PDT by B Knotts
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To: B Knotts
All this shows (at least to me) is the Dems are not too thrilled with their choices for the Democratic nomination right now and I don't think anything will change. These are the lowest poll numbers for dems in years. I don't think Al Gore even got these low poll numbers. If you were a Dem would you pick from this group? I wouldn't, I would refuse to vote for these idiots!
23 posted on 08/21/2003 7:21:05 AM PDT by areafiftyone (The U.N. needs a good Flush!)
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To: areafiftyone
Terribly misleading headline. Note that the margin of error is about 3%, and none of the numbers have changed more than 2% since the July 16-17 poll -- some in our favor (like on job approval), some for the worse. The correct headline based on the numbers reported would be: "Bush's Poll Numbers Hold Steady".
24 posted on 08/21/2003 7:22:45 AM PDT by Brandon
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To: areafiftyone
Chris Matthews will be covering this story with great enthusiasm.
25 posted on 08/21/2003 7:39:25 AM PDT by BonnieJ
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To: areafiftyone
Well Bush is against God in enforcing the Saudi-created "Road Map" (to Auschwitz II). All he needs to do is go against God by sending the Feds in to remove the Alabama 10 Commandments monument and these numbers will drop to 30%.

On the "Conservative" front, I'm still waiting for recess appointments of Presilla Owen and the other judicial nominees. What was the point of throwing Trent Lott out on his ass, when all we got was Bill Frist, twice the pussy that Lott ever was? If all we can expect from this White House is to bend over on the USSC Michigan decision and to bend over the Chuck Schumer's litmus tests in the Senate, that is a pretty dispiriting situation. It's hard to criticize Schwarzenegger's "moderate" politics when Bush isn't doing much better.

26 posted on 08/21/2003 7:40:43 AM PDT by montag813
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To: areafiftyone
The Zogby America poll involved 1,011 likely voters selected randomly from throughout the 48 contiguous states using listed residential telephone numbers.

Have any of you EVER been polled? Just stop and think about something for a moment, if these polls are "selected randomly using listed residential telephone numbers", why have probably NONE of us ever been polled? Selected randomly? My @$$! I know quite a few RATs who have been polled, but I never have. Something stinks with Zogby polls.

27 posted on 08/21/2003 7:48:17 AM PDT by Arrowhead1952 (Clone Ann Coulter, the woman sent by God)
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To: section9
Damn push poll is what this is.

Like I said...DNC talking points and media ho's.

28 posted on 08/21/2003 7:48:42 AM PDT by CedarDave (The Dems look for a shadow on the brightest day, call it the dark of night and blame George W. Bush)
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To: All
THREE POINTS:

1.) Zogby uses an excellent/good vs fair/poor dichotomy to determine his positive/negative numbers. If he used the typical approve/disapprove dichotomy, the President's approval numbers would actually reach approximately 60%!

2.) During his PEAK years (with a great economy and a cheering media), Clinton frequently had similar 'Zogby' numbers:

Overall, how would you rate the performance of Bill Clinton as president: excellent, good, fair, or poor?"
Excellent/Good Fair/Poor Not Sure

1/03-05/00 52 48 - 879LV
9/21-23/99 48 49 3 1,005LV
5/14-16/99 47 52 1 1,023LV
4/05-07/99 52 47 1 916LV
2/15-17/99 55 44 1 756LV
1/19-21/99 61 38 1 993LV
10/11-14/98 56 43 1 864LV
10/04-06/98 55 44 1 861LV
9/21-22/98 61 38 1 898LV
9/11-13/98 55 45 0 796LV
7/29-31/98 56 43 1 976LV
7/06-09/98 53 46 1 1,206LV
5/17-19/98 56 43 1
4/98 56 43 1
3/98 55 43 2
1/98 57 42 1
10/97 51 48 1
8/97 50 48 2
6/97 42 55 3
4/97 44 55 1
1/97 51 49 -

However, Clinton's FAVORABILITY ratings from 1998 on (when Zogby started polling likely voters) were typically in the low 50s/mid 40s VS the President's current almost 60% -- among LVs Clinton NEVER earned a FAVORABILITY rating as high as 58%!!

3.) Generic preference polls mean ABSOLUTELY NOTHING!!! I'll start paying attention to polls with SPECIFIC match-ups in about a year!

BOTTOMLINE: The President's polling numbers have stabilized over the last 6 weeks (and we're in the SUMMER polling period which is notoriously UNRELIABLE)!

We are now in a highly partisan period as we approach the 2004 elections -- predictably, Democrats have gone 'home' as have Democrat-leaning Independents. Republicans remain almost unanimous in their support of the President (ALL polls have Republican support over 90%) as have Republican-leaning Independents. The latter is all we need -- a President with an approval rating above 50% gets re-elected!!!!
29 posted on 08/21/2003 7:50:28 AM PDT by DrDeb
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To: ClearCase_guy
In the abstract, people are open to "someone else" but when it comes to particulars, it's a different story.

What a shame the Dems can't run "no choice". No choice seems to get a plurality when given a list of the potential candidates. And, it's how the Dems seem to "win" in these surveys...when no candidate is named!

30 posted on 08/21/2003 7:53:56 AM PDT by grania ("Won't get fooled again")
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To: Ditter
I too was weeded out of the Zogby online poll
31 posted on 08/21/2003 8:00:17 AM PDT by UB355
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To: El Che Vive
El Che Vive
Since Aug 12, 2003

Yeah, whatever.
32 posted on 08/21/2003 8:10:05 AM PDT by Uncle Miltie (BULLDOZE AL AQSA!)
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Comment #33 Removed by Moderator

Comment #34 Removed by Moderator

But many Democrats hate Bush as much as some Conservatives do.
35 posted on 08/21/2003 8:16:49 AM PDT by Consort
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To: B Knotts
Bush is not a conservative. More like a Olympia Snowe Republican. No vote for you from me this time. Democrap or Republican...not much difference. Not worth the $1.00 to drive to the polls.
36 posted on 08/21/2003 8:17:32 AM PDT by cp124
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To: BattleRoyale
I know what you are talking about. Most of these polls are taken during work hours. Most hard working Republicans are at their job. The 1,000 sampled are more than likely laying on a couch at home drawing welfare and smoking cigs.
37 posted on 08/21/2003 8:18:45 AM PDT by Arrowhead1952 (Clone Ann Coulter, the woman sent by God)
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To: Arrowhead1952
Most hard working Republicans are at their job.

Unless it has been moved to Inida

38 posted on 08/21/2003 8:27:55 AM PDT by Delphster
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Comment #39 Removed by Moderator

To: cp124
Well, he's more conservative than Schwarzenegger. :-)

You're right that he is not really a conservative; he's more of a moderate, who leans conservative on some issues. Not quite to the Olympia Snowe level, though.

40 posted on 08/21/2003 8:58:31 AM PDT by B Knotts
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To: Arrowhead1952
Have any of you EVER been polled?

I've been polled. You may not even know the focus of the poll, because the two I've participated in have had a wide range of stuff. from my purchasing preferences to political affiliation to most admired people, etc. It could be a 100 question poll that establishes a profile of you while being commissioned for a couple very specific reasons. You'd never know.

41 posted on 08/21/2003 8:59:09 AM PDT by NittanyLion
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To: Arrowhead1952
I know what you are talking about. Most of these polls are taken during work hours. Most hard working Republicans are at their job. The 1,000 sampled are more than likely laying on a couch at home drawing welfare and smoking cigs.

Zogby controls for that type of bias. I know folks around here like to bash him, but no other polls came close in 2000. People on this site bashed Zogby and ridiculed his predictions, and he was dead-on.

42 posted on 08/21/2003 9:01:04 AM PDT by NittanyLion
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To: KevinDavis
Didn't the Zogby poll said that Jeb was going to lose to McBride?

That was the race Zogby actually got right, at the very end showing Bush winning in a rout. His other results in 2002 were mixed at best, including predicting a solid win for Strickland over Allard in Colorado when it turned out quite the opposite. Oops, he said. The model needs to be updated. Duh.

43 posted on 08/21/2003 9:01:09 AM PDT by JohnnyZ (I don't know but I been told - Eskimo ***** is mighty cold - Tastes good - Mm good)
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To: areafiftyone
This is a good poll for Republicans. Not because it shows that Bush is doing well, but because it shows he isn't. Complacency is the surest way to lose an election. You should always run a campaign assuming that you're the underdog. It makes you work that much harder, and tells your base voters and those inclined to vote for you that they darn well better get out and vote and not stay home.
44 posted on 08/21/2003 9:04:29 AM PDT by chimera
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To: NittanyLion
no other polls came close in 2000. People on this site bashed Zogby and ridiculed his predictions, and he was dead-on.

He's gonna have to fall back on that one forever. He showed pro-Dem, and the DUI thing caused a pro-Dem shift. It takes more than one election to justify a reputation.

45 posted on 08/21/2003 9:06:12 AM PDT by JohnnyZ (I don't know but I been told - Eskimo ***** is mighty cold - Tastes good - Mm good)
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To: JohnnyZ
He's gonna have to fall back on that one forever. He showed pro-Dem, and the DUI thing caused a pro-Dem shift. It takes more than one election to justify a reputation.

I thought he nailed the 96 election as well?

46 posted on 08/21/2003 9:11:27 AM PDT by NittanyLion
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To: Brad Cloven
So far every one of my posts has been attacked by someone like you saying I haven't been here long enough to have an opinion that matters. How long does someone have to wait before they stop being 'welcomed' in such a rude way? I think I made a vaild point. The Clark TV ad on the draft Clark website depicts the guy as someone who wins military conflicts. Regardless of whether I agree with that or not, I think it is a product that some people will buy. I don't see how siging up on the 12th of August changes that in any way.
47 posted on 08/21/2003 9:13:55 AM PDT by El Che Vive
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To: Delphster
Your concern is that jobs are being exported to India. Here is a fascinating column by Walter Williams, and it shows that lower wages are NOT the reason we're losing jobs:

http://www.townhall.com/columnists/walterwilliams/ww20030820.shtml

(I'm not sure why the hyperlink didn't work. Sorry.)

48 posted on 08/21/2003 9:30:49 AM PDT by alwaysconservative (Better living through denial)
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To: areafiftyone
Time to close ranks people! Look, I think the President has been wrong about quite a few things, myself, but let's still be clear on what he's been right about and still needs time to enact:

1)Tax Cuts (the future could bring a move towards a fair tax and a scrapping of the income tax!)
2)The outsourcing of government jobs
3)Refusal to bail out the states
4)Social Security Privatization
5)Energy Policy, including building more plants (read nuclear) and drilling in ANWaR.
6)John Aschcroft and his successful pursuit and arresting of terrorists
7)Scrapping of the stupid ABM treaty with Russia and moving towards building a missile defense system.
8)Instructing his justice department to re-affirm the second ammendment as a personal rather than a group right.
9)Solid support for Israel, to the point that he is hero over there and is even more highly thought of in Israel than he is in America.
10)His refusal to sign onto Kyoto or the ICC.

All of the above is wonderful and I consider it all gravy. I would vote for President Bush simply because of the way he has fought terrorism abroad since 9/11. His decision to uproot the Taliban and Saddam Hussein and his decision to put all terrorist on notice than they can be next. I know some people are upset about his cozy relationship with the Saudis and Pakistan but I am certain he has even put them on notice when it comes to terrorism. I truly support the man and believe that whomever the Democrats pick will be far worse than what we already have. Is he perfect? Of course not and we all have our own ideas about what the perfect candidate is but we need to support this guy and close ranks now. The Democrats are sharks and attack quicly at the smell of blood. I can't even fatham what a President Dean or a President Kerry would wreak on this nation. I don't wish to find out!

49 posted on 08/21/2003 9:46:33 AM PDT by GmbyMan (everythingpolitics.blogspot.com)
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To: areafiftyone
I'm sure Zogby was more than thrilled to push this pull forward, but I really have a problem with his polling being trustworthy. Sure, his said low-mid 50s last month and then there were other polls that showed the President holding steady in the high 50s and low 60s. Go figure. I don't think Zogby is looking randomly either. I think he relies heavily on liberals to push his poll in the direction he wants and an attempt to sway the public, but their biases with the media is more and more obvious.
50 posted on 08/21/2003 10:19:13 AM PDT by bushfamfan
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