Skip to comments.Category 2 Hurricane Fabian headed west and Tropical Storm Grace forecast tonight in Gulf of Mexico
Posted on 08/30/2003 8:29:03 AM PDT by varina davis
HURRICANE FABIAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2003
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF FABIAN CONTINUES TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THERE ARE GOOD CENTRAL AND BANDING FEATURES...THE OUTFLOW REMAINS WELL ESTABLISHED AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...AN EYE FEATURE IS BECOMING APPARENT ON VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 85 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK T-NUMBERS OF 5.0 AND 4.5 FROM TAFB...SAB AND KGWC...RESPECTIVELY. THIS MAKES FABIAN A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR/SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE. FABIAN IS MOVING OVER WARM WATER AND INTO LOW SHEAR. THEREFORE... ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE LATEST RUNS OF SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.
THERE HAS NOT BEEN A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE STEERING PATTERN. A STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BE ANCHORED FROM THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES EASTWARD ACROSS THE ATLANTIC.
THIS PATTERN WOULD KEEP FABIAN ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST TO EVEN WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE NEXT 3 DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN U.S.
THIS PATTERN WOULD FORCE FABIAN TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE...PRIMARILY THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL. IN THE SHORT RANGE...THE GFS MOVES FABIAN ON A STRAIGHT WESTWARD TRACK OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST. THIS IS NOT LIKELY TO HAPPEN AND IS PROBABLY BECAUSE THE GFS TREATS FABIAN AS A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS AN EXCELLENT MODEL AND ATTENTION MUST BE PAID TO THE NEXT RUN.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 30/1500Z 17.2N 48.6W 85 KT 12HR VT 31/0000Z 17.5N 50.5W 90 KT 24HR VT 31/1200Z 18.5N 53.0W 95 KT 36HR VT 01/0000Z 19.0N 55.5W 100 KT 48HR VT 01/1200Z 19.5N 57.5W 100 KT 72HR VT 02/1200Z 20.5N 61.5W 100 KT 96HR VT 03/1200Z 22.0N 64.0W 100 KT 120HR VT 04/1200Z 25.0N 67.5W 100 KT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT SAT AUG 30 2003
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER IN THE GULF OF MEXICO HAS DEVELOPED A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION AND IS NOW A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. AN UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS CURRENTLY INTERACTING WITH THE DEPRESSION PRODUCING SOME SHEAR. THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS THE APPEARANCE OF A HYBRID SYSTEM WITH MOST OF THE WEATHER TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN OR DRIFT SOUTHWARD RESULTING IN LIGHTER SHEAR. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM BEFORE LANDFALL.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN BUT THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 310 DEGREES OR NORTHWEST AT 10 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE TEXAS COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE.
TD 11, soon to be TS Grace has formed quickly and will come ashore somewhere between Corpus Christi and Morgan City, LA. Fortunately, it is unlikely to develop hurricane status before then.
The NHC intensity forecasts for Fabian haven't been particularly inaccurate.
It developed without warning overnight, and they haven't had much chance to study it.
The two high pressure systems over the US should sling the storm north pretty rapidly, though.
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Only 30 or 40 mph off. Yesterday morning they predicted a 60 mph storm for the next three or four days.
BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GRACE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 215 PM EDT SAT AUG 30 2003
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM GRACE OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
AN AIR FORCE RERSERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT RECENTLY MEASURED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 43 KNOTS. BASED ON THIS INFORMATION...ALONG WITH WIND REPORTS FROM A SHIP AND OFFSHORE OIL RIG...THE DEPRESSION IS BEING UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM GRACE AS OF 1 PM CDT...1800Z.
A hurricane is the "storm of peace."
...Fabian becomes the first major hurricane of the season...
high resolution visible satellite images indicate that at 5 PM AST...2100z...the eye of Hurricane Fabian was located near latitude 17.4 north...longitude 49.8 west or about 775 miles...1250 km... east of the Lesser Antilles.
Fabian is moving toward the west near 14 mph...22 km/hr. A general west to northwest track is expected during the next 24 hours.
Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 115 mph...185 km/hr...with higher gusts. This makes Fabian a dangerous category three hurricane on the Saffir/Simpson hurricane scale. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next 24 hours.
Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 25 miles...35 km... from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 960 mb...28.35 inches.
Repeating the 5 PM AST position...17.4 N... 49.8 W. Movement toward...west near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...115 mph. Minimum central pressure... 960 mb.
The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11 PM AST.
...Tropical Storm Grace forms in the western Gulf of Mexico...
a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Texas coast from High Island to Corpus Christi.
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24 hours.
At 4 PM CDT...2100z...the center of Tropical Storm Grace was located near latitude 25.6 north...longitude 93.7 west or about 280 miles...east-southeast of Corpus Christi Texas.
Grace is moving toward the west-northwest near 10 mph...and this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours. On this track...the center of Grace is expected make landfall along the Texas coast in the warning area within the next 24 to 30 hours.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. An Air Force reserve reconnaissance aircraft is currently investigating the tropical storm and will provide more information on the strength of this tropical cyclone.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 105 miles ...Mainly northeast through southeast of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.
Rainfall accumulations of 6 to 8 inches...with isolated higher amounts...can be expected near and to the east of the path of the depression. Rainbands are already spreading over the Upper Texas and southwest Louisiana coasts.
Coastal storm surge flooding of 2-4 feet above normal tide levels...along with large and dangerous battering waves...can be expected near and to the right of where the center of Grace makes landfall.
Repeating the 4 PM CDT position...25.6 N... 93.7 W. Movement toward...west-northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 40 mph. Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.
For storm information specific to your area...please monitor products issued by your local weather office.
An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 7 PM CDT followed by the next complete advisory at 10 PM CDT.
Looks like we're in Grace's path as of now....
Just a day or so...?
...TROPICAL STORM GRACE MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TO PORT O'CONNOR...
...AREAS AFFECTED... THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS ACTIONS TO BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS IN THE COUNTIES OF ARANSAS...CALHOUN...NUECES...REFUGIO AND SAN PATRICIO.
...WATCHES/WARNINGS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TO PORT O'CONNOR. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS. AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR SUNDAY FOR THE COUNTIES OF VICTORIA AND GOLIAD.
...STORM INFORMATION... AT 7 PM...THE POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.2 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 94.0 WEST OR ABOUT 280 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI. TROPICAL STORM GRACE WAS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. THE FORECAST TRACK OF GRACE IS TO MAINTAIN ITS NORTHWEST MOVEMENT...AND MAKE LANDFALL LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON NEAR PORT O'CONNOR.
MAXIMUM SUSTAIN WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST TO OCCUR DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
...PRECAUTIONARY ACTIONS... RESIDENTS IN THE WARNING AREA SHOULD REVIEW AND MAKE THEIR PREPARATION PLANS FOR THE THIS SYSTEM. SINCE GRACE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL AS A TROPICAL STORM...NO EVACUATIONS HAVE BEEN ORDERED AT THIS TIME.
RESIDENTS NEED TO SECURE TRASH CANS...LAWN FURNITURE...AND OTHER LOOSE OR LIGHT WEIGHT OBJECTS THAT MAY BE BLOWN AROUND IN THE WIND. HIGH WINDS CAN TOPPLE TREES AND DOWN POWER LINES. RESIDENTS SHOULD PREPARE FOR POWER OUTAGES AND SHOULD HAVE FLASHLIGHTS...A BATTERY OPERATED RADIO AND EXTRA BATTERIES ON HAND FOR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
...STORM SURGE AND TIDE IMPACTS... A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FEET IS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER CALHOUN COUNTY AS THE SYSTEM MAKES A PROJECTED LANDFALL NEAR PORT O'CONNOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A STORM SURGE OF 2 FEET WILL PRODUCE MINOR FLOODING ON THE BEACHES OF MATAGORDA ISLAND.
TIDE LEVELS ARE CURRENTLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE ONE HALF FOOT ABOVE NORMAL AT BOB HALL PIER...PORT O'CONNOR AND ROCKPORT. TIDE LEVELS NEAR PORT O'CONNOR MAY RISE 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE AS GRACE MAKES LANDFALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TIDE AT PORT O'CONNOR ON SUNDAY WILL BE AT 726 AM AND LOW TIDE WILL BE AT 240 PM. AT PORT ARANSAS...HIGH TIDE ON SUNDAY WILL BE AT 756 PM.
BASED ON THE PROJECTED TRACK AND STRENGTH OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE...TIDE IMPACTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS. NO FLOODING OF THE JFK CAUSEWAY IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
...WIND IMPACTS... NORTHEAST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING OVER THE OFFSHORE WATERS OF THE MIDDLE TEXAS COAST. THE WINDS OFFSHORE WILL INCREASE TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE TOWARD DAYBREAK SUNDAY MORNING AS GRACE APPROACHES. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF CALHOUN AND ARANSAS DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS ON SUNDAY. THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS GRACE MAKES LANDFALL NEAR PORT O'CONNOR IN THE AFTERNOON.
...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS... BASED ON THE FORECAST TRACK...AS THE SYSTEM MOVES CLOSER AND INCREASES TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 9 TO 12 FEET NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS AND 6 TO 9 FEET SOUTH OF PORT ARANSAS. THESE LARGE SEAS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE VERY ROUGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ACROSS ALL OF THE SOUTH TEXAS BEACHES TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
...TORNADO IMPACTS... ALTHOUGH THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS RAINBANDS APPROACH THE AREA...THE MAIN THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE EAST AND NORTH OF PORT O'CONNOR.
...FLOOD IMPACTS... BASED ON THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...THE THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE NORTH AND EAST OF PORT O'CONNOR. HOWEVER... RAINFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER CALHOUN... ARANSAS...REFUGIO...GOLIAD AND VICTORIA COUNTIES THROUGH SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM GRACE.
...NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT SCHEDULED STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 11 PM CDT SATURDAY.