Terror attack on grid would collapse U.S.

UPI ^ | 9/4/03 | Shaun Waterman

[truthandlife]

Government scientific advisers and officials painted a grim picture Thursday of the consequences of a terror attack on the nation's power grid, saying that any outage that lasted longer than a couple of days would reduce urban centers to chaos and collapse the economy.

[sarasota]

Well let's just call more attention to how terror can bring the US down. Sheesh.

[Portnoy]

I wonder how many AMericans have restocked their supply of batteries, candles, water and canned goods?

When the blackout hit here in Detroit, the only thing I was in short supply was gas. I know have at least 5 gallons of gas in a gas can. One week after the event, I have all my supplies restocked.

guarenteed, most people who waited in long lines and complained about the lack of supplies haven't prepared for the next event. (Especially here in Michigan where its almost certain you will lose your power once during the winter months....

[af_vet_1981]

Well let's just call more attention to how terror can bring the US down. Sheesh.

The terrorists already know. The common citizens are ignorant. Now at least they may have the time and inclination to do something practical to plan for emergencies, power grid loss being one of them.

[sarasota]

What can the "common citizens" do to effect this?

[LurkedLongEnough]

I wonder how many AMericans have restocked their supply of batteries, candles, water and canned goods?

That's all good, but add guns & ammo too.

"Economic collapse" is bad, but what is worse is that it would set the stage for an attack by brainwashed fanatics who have been preparing for just this kind of chance. There's only one answer to a serious attacker....

[af_vet_1981]

What can the "common citizens" do to affect this?

You can pray.

You can collect water, food, flashlights, batteries, candles, matches, blankets, guns, ammunition, radios, fuel, and take a stand to support the War on Terror and those who are waging it.

[null and void]

Soviet Stratgy for Nuclear War, by Douglass and Hoebert (This book is a couple decades old.) said that the #3 target, after our own nuclear capability and military C³I is the power grid.

The targeting is fairly obvious to anyone who thinks about how to bring down our society. Perhaps not so obvious to ordinary US residents...

[lonestar]

I was thiking the same thing. Why not draw them a picture?

[sarasota]

The grid has already been on the internet. I saw a piece on cable news where a grad student's thesis was classified because he'd written a "how to" paper on the various US grids, complete with diagrams. Since that time I understand much of this info has been pulled (this from the Army Corps of Engineers)...but it's been out there for quite some time.

[Squawk 8888]

"With power out beyond a day or two, both food and water supplies would soon fail. Transportation systems would be at a standstill ... natural gas pressure would decline and some would lose gas altogether -- not good in the winter time ... Communications would be spotty or non-existent. ... All in all, our cities would not be very nice places to be... Martial law would likely follow," This scaremonger obviously doesn't know what he's talking about. Firstly, it is unlikely that a grid failure would cause widespread outages for more than a day- the first thing Ontario did in the last outage was disconnect from the grid and some power was flowing within 5 hours, the whole province was back within 24 hours. Some areas never lost power because they were near powerplants that disconnected from the grid. Finally, his scenario of social unrest is a bit OTT- parts of Québec lost power for 33 days (Montréal was dark for a week) and everyone managed. Never underestimate the ability of resourceful individuals to make things happen.

[finnman69]

Buy a generator, batteries and bottled water.

[Free Trapper]

It's the "un"resourceful individuals that would be the problem,as always.

[randog]

So the experts say that bad things will happen if we don't have electricity? Sheesh, where do I get a job making predictions like that?

NEWSFLASH: Weather expert randog sez things get wet when it rains!!

[mtbopfuyn]

Not to sound like little Tommy, but it deeply saddens me that so many people STILL don't have a clue. Every day the power is interrupted somewhere in the US and many times during the winter and for extended periods of time. If those normal occurrances hadn't enlightened people, one would think the Y2K scare would have. 9/11 couldn't have been a bigger wake-up call. But apparently they still are in the dark, in more ways than one, after the latest major grid failure.

This is the lowest we've been on supplies, but it is intentional as I'm sorting through things right now. It needed more than the normal rotation of items. We'll be living on the edge the next few weeks but I'm aware of the situation and will begin restocking this weekend.

[upchuck]

If you're wondering how to prepare for something like this may I suggest reading a very interesting book? With all due respect to the FReeper of the same name, "Alas Babylon"^ by Pat Frank is a must read. Frank wrote this book in the late 60's. It's the story of folks in a small town in Florida and how they survive an atomic attack from the former Soviet Union.

Granted, atomic attack causing national destruction is much less likely today and the Soviet Union no longer exists. But the book still does an excellent job of portraying what these folks go through and the fruits of planning and not planning.

I have read this book many times, it's one of my favs. And I have used it as a "how-to" guide in my personal preparation for "what if."

[null and void]

ping

[Ancesthntr]

Soviet Stratgy for Nuclear War

Excellent, though scary, book. I've had it since the mid-80's, and I review it every few years or so just to remind me of what could have been.

[redgolum]

As an engineer in the energy business, we have often joked that a few guys with a high powered rifle could take down the grid. Blow out a few transformers in the right place and cause the type of rolling blackouts that we say in the Northwest.

That being said, in my home state of Nebraska, losing power for a few days or weeks would probably result in a mini baby boom.

[Jambe]

Brings back memories of pre-Y2K worst case scenarios.

There was an interesting movie The Trigger Effect done in 1996 about the mayhem in civilization caused by a power outage and the ripple effect (no water, gas, food, money, medical, etc.)

I also live in Southeastern Michigan (about 25 miles West of Detroit)- nobody admits to living IN Detroit anymore. I was in Northern Michigan at the time of the outage, but returned that evening as the wife was home alone.

It was very strange approaching the Detroit area that evening. Small towns 50 miles away that still had power were overwhelmed with people and cars. Gas stations, stores and ATM were being wiped out in a matter of hours. Many stations had police monitoring the gas lines due to reports of problems.

On the good side, it happened late in the week and many left the area for Northern cottages/homes/parks. Many of those that stayed behind re-connected with their neighborhood or community.

I'm just glad the outage didn't extend over any significant period of time or happen during winter; even though my generator did a fine job.

Rent the movie, then decide if your prepared for the next Trigger Event.

[livius]

I also recommend one of those neat little hand-cranked radio/light combinations. I bought mine at Bed, Bath & Beyond, believe it or not, for about $40. I live in Florida, where we have hurricanes that knock out power (to say the least), so most people down here are somewhat prepared. Not for a long haul, perhaps, but at least for a few days, which is enough to avert panic.

[Trampled by Lambs]

The terrorists already know. The common citizens are ignorant. Now at least they may have the time and inclination to do something practical to plan for emergencies, power grid loss being one of them.

I realize that our enemies are not stupid and probably have thought of this. However, articles like this still make me uneasy. There's always the possibility that I (we) over-estimate the intelligence of the enemy and so why point out our vulnerabilities for all to see?,

[Alberta's Child]

Fortunately, I had power in my section of New Jersey during the recent blackout. But if I didn't, I was simply going to load my camping gear into my truck and spend a few days up in the mountains of upstate New York.

I would have brought my cell phone, but only to call the office on Monday to let them know I wouldn't be at work. LOL.

[Timesink]

"With power out beyond a day or two, both food and water supplies would soon fail. Transportation systems would be at a standstill ... natural gas pressure would decline and some would lose gas altogether -- not good in the winter time ... Communications would be spotty or non-existent. ... All in all, our cities would not be very nice places to be... Martial law would likely follow," Paul H. Gilbert of the National Research Council told a congressional panel.

Sounds more like the first 72 hours of the Dean Administration to me.

[MatthewViti]

Why we still welcome Islamists into this country is beyond me. Why we still haven't secured the borders is mind blowing. Wake up Bush bots!

[_Jim]

Terror attack on grid would collapse U.S.

Lightning storms, hurricanes, torrential rains - contrasted with a 'terrorist' attack would be miniscule ... the RESILIENCY in a properly operating network is remarkable.

As soon as we get FirstEnergy straighened out - WE'LL be in good shape.

[Poohbah]

Soviet Stratgy for Nuclear War, by Douglass and Hoebert (This book is a couple decades old.) said that the #3 target, after our own nuclear capability and military C³I is the power grid.

True. But in the course of trying to target sets #1 and #2, they'd hit so many targets in set #3 that the results would be similar to a deliberate attack against the grid.

[_Jim]

Terror attack on grid would collapse U.S.

"Terror Attack" ............................. "Collapse"

WHAT falls in the gap between these two endpoints?

I'm talking specifics ... what skills, what knowledge does it take?

What *specific* tools (and I'm NOT talking just a computer w/a dail-up access but *specific* software packaages) ...

'Disrutping' a grid ain't like Telnetting into a foreign host and 'cracking' it to get 'root' ...

[Poohbah]

First thing that comes to mind: ability to design detonators for explosives that are not sensitive to EMI, lest the bomb you're planting "cook off" as you get close to the switching station...

An attack of this grade would have to operate in both the physical and information domains. Possibly even the cognitive domain (i.e., there would need to be a deception plan to mislead the power grid operators into helping the attackers).

[_Jim]

John McCarthy, director of the Critical Infrastructure Protection Project at George Mason University, described how a student of his -- using information in the public domain -- had created a comprehensive map of the nation's entire fiber optic cable network as part of his Ph.D. dissertation.

THIS is always going to be the case ... there are TOO MANY people simply withing organizations that *know* htis information, and, were they to 'tuen bad' could wreak ALL kinds of havoc *without* being identified for days and weaks even ... the fortunate things about 'terrorist' attacks on infrastructure, is, #1 there is so d*mn much of it #2 MOST of it is over-designed #3 it's redundant ... the 'terrorists' on the other hand are, for the most part (it turns out) bumbling idiots. A persomn like Atta, with centered, focused drive comes along ever so infrequently ...

[_Jim]

Re-issue w/spelling corrections

John McCarthy, director of the Critical Infrastructure Protection Project at George Mason University, described how a student of his -- using information in the public domain -- had created a comprehensive map of the nation's entire fiber optic cable network as part of his Ph.D. dissertation.

THIS is always going to be the case ... there are TOO MANY people simply within organizations that *know* all this sensitive information, and, were they to 'turn bad' could wreak ALL kinds of havoc *without* being identified for days and weeks even ... the fortunate things about 'terrorist' attacks on infrastructure, is, #1 there is so d*mn much of it #2 MOST of it is over-designed #3 it's redundant #4 it's *not* a static scenario: law-enforcement *and* utility operators are active, not passive in their ability to adapt ... the 'terrorists' on the other hand are, for the most part (it turns out) bumbling idiots. A person like Atta, with centered, focused drive comes along ever so infrequently ...

[_Jim]

First thing that comes to mind: ability

I THINK you nailed it RIGHT THERE.

[RightWhale]

When the grid goes down, it should collapse to its several local, autonomous community systems. Overall efficiency would not be as great, and there would be local problems, but the whole economy should not suffer. Drag out the old diesel generators and dig up the old station operator and start polluting the air like in the good, old days.

[_Jim]

Blow out a few transformers in the right place and

... a proper operating transmission operator would re-route 'power flows' ... with 'FirstEnergy' - blind in their control room (we're probably going to find out these were *recurring* issues with them) to the active situation - yes, you could wreak some havoc ... I suspect that you couldn't take down the grid if you wanted to in an area operated by PJM or AEP - the automatic curtailments with load shedding relays, manual shedding would eventually 'island' that portion of a troublesome system ...

[af_vet_rr]

I realize that our enemies are not stupid and probably have thought of this. However, articles like this still make me uneasy. There's always the possibility that I (we) over-estimate the intelligence of the enemy and so why point out our vulnerabilities for all to see?,

Our enemies are very intelligent, nobody here saw 9/11 coming (some would argue Tom Clancy's novels and a few other authors predicted such an event).

Better the citizens be prepared than be in the dark (not just literally).

[Leatherneck_MT]

Got all that and a gas run Generator to keep the lights on at night.

Of course here in Montana you'd better have a backup electrical system regardless of where you live :)

[sarasota]

Do you really think the House and Senate would pass legislation? If so, how long do you think the debate would take? And the compliance--how could it be enforced with all the illegal paperwork already available?

[Centurion2000]

Everything you ever wanted to know about survival and preparations ....

The Rubicon

[_Jim]

Everything you ever wanted to know about survival and preparations ....

I'm too tied to civilization to spend much time worrying about 'survival' per se; a few basics like a reliable flashlight, even a 1 to 4 KW generarator is not unreasonable, because, locally induced 'trouble' like ice storms or tornados that can sweep a path 1/2 mile wide are MUCH more of a possibility than 'terrror' is on the scale that most 'hucksters' of survival gear like to hype ...

[_Jim]

When the grid goes down, it should collapse to its several local, autonomous community systems.

They refer to his as 'islanding' - when local generation provides for 'load' in that islanded area ... this sort of thing *should* have happened on Aug 14, and, it did, actually, as the entire eastern grid did not go down as the mechanism for the collapse was halted by such system as the Pennsylvania-Jersey-Maryland (PJM) controlled areas ... by shedding adequate smaller 'loads' in an area that has islanded *most* of the local load (and, most importantly, the generators *stay up*) stays powered up.

[MatthewViti]

I prefer to have a "just shut up and do it" attitude. That's the only way things get done. IT's long past time to wake up to this hell we live in.

[null and void]

Specificaly, IIRC, they planned on nuking power plants.

[Poohbah]

True--but that wouldn't have done much more damage to the grid than a counterforce/C3I attack would do. After a while, the destruction curves flatten out.

[null and void]

They planned on sparing cities and manufacturing facilities. And most importantly, the rest of the government - specifically the President!

They felt it was essential that they extract a legal, universaly recognized surender.

Having someone a dozen people down in succession to the office just wasn't good enough...

[Poohbah]

They planned on sparing cities and manufacturing facilities.

Debatable.

And most importantly, the rest of the government - specifically the President!

This is where I part company with Hoeber and Douglass. My reading of Soviet doctrine is that they planned on clobbering the entire damn chain of succession, from the Prez on down, as part of a C3I attack. They most certainly had Washington DC targeted with multiple warheads. Suggested reading: "Can Nuclear War be Controlled?" by Desmond Ball, Adelphi Paper #169, published in 1981 by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, London.

They felt it was essential that they extract a legal, universaly recognized surender.

They wouldn't have gotten one. Once hit by an attack that followed their doctrine, the US had no particular reason to restrain itself, and may very well NOT have been able to restrain itself, because the communications links from the National Command Authorities to the military commanders would have been a shambles. The guy who could give the shoot/no-shoot order was an Air Force one-star on an EC-135 over Nebraska, and he would have had no contact with Washington after such an attack.

[null and void]

This is where I part company with Hoeber and Douglass. My reading of Soviet doctrine

I'm just reporting what they extracted fron their (former)Soviet contacts, and previously classified Soviet documents.

Doesn't make a pinch of shiite's difference what you or I think - what mattered is what THEY thought.

They wouldn't have gotten one. Once hit by an attack that followed their doctrine, the US had no particular reason to restrain itself,

Clinton (either one) would surrender - to save the children, of course...

[SSN558]

Every special interest in the U.S. has used chicken little tactics in attempt to get a piece of the largest gubmint spending spree of the 21st century. What is next ? Homeland defense generators.

[Poohbah]

I'm just reporting what they extracted fron their (former)Soviet contacts, and previously classified Soviet documents.

I've read those same documents, and , IMNHO, their conclusions were flat-out wrong--methinks the Hoover Institute shaded things somewhat to hype the Red Menace (not that it actually needed any hyping; it's just that it's easier to make folks afraid of Commie troops landing on American shores instead of Commie warheads).

The USSR didn't care about a "legal surrender" by the President, nor did they care about keeping American industrial infrastructure intact. IF America reverted to barbarism and feudal, low-tech societies, then America would pose no threat whatsoever to Soviet postwar recovery and its future imperial ambitions.

Doesn't make a pinch of shiite's difference what you or I think - what mattered is what THEY thought.

And I'm telling what they thought. Had it gone to a nuclear exchange, the USSR would've engaged as many US military and CI targets as possible. Since most of those targets tend to be co-located with urban/industrial targets, even a "limited counterforce" attack would have inflicted enormous damage on US urban areas; a full countervalue attack would have done somewhat more damage, but most of the country wouldn't notice.

Clinton (either one) would surrender - to save the children, of course...

Assuming that (a) they s/he/it was still alive (not a certain bet, because of the profusion of "must hit" C³I targets in the National Capital Region), (b) that the C³I system (which, remember, has been targeted for destruction) could relay the surrender order to subordinate commanders, and (c) that those subordinate commanders, who've just had their families erased from the earth, thirsted for revenge, and would actually give a (bleep) what a draft dodger or his brood sow had just ordered.

[HitmanLV]

I agree that a protracted power loss wouldn't destroy the USA. It would be a rough 1 or 2 days or so, but the USA would not 'collapse' nor would our economy come tumbling down if we were without power for 36 hours.