Hurricane Isabel Now Expected To Hit The United States

National Hurricane Center ^ | 9/14/03 | NHC

[I_love_weather]

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

THE MODELS ARE NOW IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH ISABEL MAKING LANDFALL ALONG THE CENTRAL U.S. EAST COAST IN ABOUT 4 DAYS. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE THE EXACT LANDFALL COULD OCCUR SINCE THE DEVELOPING CENTRAL U.S. TROUGH COULD DEEPEN AND DIG SOUTHWARD MORE THAN IS FORECAST BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...WHICH COULD LEAD A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AND LANDFALL FARTHER UP THE EAST COAST THAN WHAT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST. UNFORTUNATELY...ALL OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE AGREE ON A LARGE AND STRONG NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE REMAINING EAST OF ISABEL...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT THE POWERFUL HURRICANE FROM RECURVING OUT TO SEA. LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY.

ONLY MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS AS ISABEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SIGHTLY WARMER WATER AND REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE DOUBLE-OUTFLOW PATTERN. HOWEVER...BY 96 HOURS...ISABEL IS EXPECTED TO BE ACCELERATING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER INCREASING SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE CENTRAL CORE OF ISABEL REMAINING EAST OF THE STRONG JETSTREAM AND UNDER 20-25 KT 200 MB WIND. THIS WOULD TEND TO KEEP ISABEL STRONGER THAN WHAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL IS INDICATING...ESPECIALLY SINCE ISABEL WILL BE MOVING OVER THE WARM GULFSTREAM SOUTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS AT THAT TIME. THEREFORE...LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

FORECASTER STEWART

Five Day Forecast Map

http://maps.wunderground.com/data/images/at200313_5day.gif

[mewzilla]

Nuts. Incoming.

[jaz.357]

Outter Banks of NC.

Be ready for this one.

[Catspaw]

Batten down the hatches--thar's a blow acomin'

[I_love_weather]

[July 4th]

Either it catches land there, or it's heading straight to DC.

[GOPcapitalist]

Looks like we're in for a lot of rain and other stuff.

[I_love_weather]

From WxAmerica meteorologist Larry Cosgrove

At this point, I suspect Isabel will skirt the shoreline of the Delmarva Peninsula before smashing into S NJ. This track scenario mirrors the UKMET scheme and lies very close to the ECMWF panels (which, under a higher resolution outlay of the home site of the model, shows a path just east of Chesapeake Bay), and is not that far from the GFS outlook either. I am going with the idea of a full phasing of Isabel with the oncoming trough complex. In history, such an action almost always creates historical weather events: Hazel (1954) set pressure and wind records in much of the Mid-Atlantic region into ONT; Agnes (1972) inundated much of PA....NY....NJ with as much as 30 inches of rainfall. I cannot say for sure what particular threat is greater with this hurricane, but the presence of a 1026MB anticyclone north and east (as well as north and west, into the Great Lakes) probably implies strong, gradient-enhanced wind gusts. The addition of vorticity from the trough may offset system weakening somewhat, so while Isabel enters (briefly) cooler SSTs before landfall, there is a case for 2-4 hours of sustained 100 mph or greater bursts along the path of the eye. I might also note that acceleration of the core pressures from S NJ into SW QC may devastate E MD....DE....NJ....C, E PA....C, E NY....W CT....W
MA....VT....W, C QC with damaging windfields and torrential rains (and a few tornadoes as well). Just keep in mind that adjustments in the storm track are highly probable through the 72 hour time frame.

end comment...

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[Dog Gone]

LITTLE OR NO SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER LANDFALL OCCURS.

That means that people need to prepare their property as best they can, and then evacuate. There are no heroes who ride out a direct hit from a storm of this magnitude. Just fools.

[Diddle E. Squat]

Andrew meets Agnes.

What will the economic impact be? Not good.

[mewzilla]

And hopefully the folks further inland will prepare, too.

[abner]

Looks like after it hits, it will be coming right to my county.

[GOPcapitalist]

Looks like it will make a mess of Chesapeake, delmarva, and possibly even the New Jersey coast. DC will probably get dumped on with rain etc. but is too far inland to bear the full brunt of the storm.

[dennisw]

my bet ....... it won't hit usa.... no direct hit just lotsa rain wind

[mewzilla]

Well, a lot of the folks who got nailed by Agnes in the Souther Tier NY/Northern Tier PA would be protected by the Tioga-Hammond Dam. Still some localized flooding, but nothing like before. Ground's not saturated, either, which should help.

[blam]

" LANDFALL ALONG THE U.S MID-ATLANTIC COAST SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NORTH CAROLINA AND NEW JERSEY BETWEEN 4 OR 5 DAYS IS APPEARING MORE AND MORE LIKELY."

The time to prepare is NOW! Good luck on the east coast.

[MEG33]

This looks bad.

[SamAdams76]

This storm is capable of massive damage wherever it hits. It should also be noted that the areas that this storm is expected to hit have had a very wet summer and the ground is saturated. SO it will not take that much rain to cause severe flooding. A widespread incidence of 5-10 inch rains in these areas (common for any tropical storm) could well end up causing more damage than the winds and ocean surf.

In years past, hurricanes have been "hyped" to the point that nobody takes them as seriously as they used to. Hurricane Andrew is an example of what a Cat 5 storm can do but that was over 10 years ago and memories are fading (especially outside Florida). The U.S. has been fairly fortunate with respect to hurricanes during the past 75 years. We've only had two truly catastrophic Cat 5 hurricanes make landfall during that time (Camille in 1969 and Andrew in 1992).

In the Northeast, the last truly devastating hurricane was back in 1938 and not many are still around that remember that one.

[GOPcapitalist]

There are no heroes who ride out a direct hit from a storm of this magnitude. Just fools.

Exactly. The waves on the atlantic coast have been overhead all week including some over 10+ feet and that's with the storm several hundred miles off shore. There is virtually no coastal seawall like Galveston's either - just lots of dunes. Somebody who lives near the coast would have to be insane to try to sit through this one.

[snopercod]

I'm right on the left-hand edge of the forecast track, sorta where SC, GA, and NC come together.

Better stock up on beer and gasoline, just in case.

[abner]

People here still talk about Agnes with awe and respect.

[jmc813]

Sorry for the caps...this is the way they post these things

Does anyone know the reason their alerts are always in caps? It annoys the heck out of me.

[nwctwx]

Where was that guy telling me I lived in Connecticut and therefore shouldn't comment on hurricanes? ;-)

[mewzilla]

One of the local papers has a section on Agnes.

Click here if anyone's interested.

[GOPcapitalist]

A widespread incidence of 5-10 inch rains in these areas (common for any tropical storm) could well end up causing more damage than the winds and ocean surf.

That is exactly what Allison did two years ago. It swept through Houston dumping about 10 inches and saturating the ground, then a day later it swung back around and came to a lingering stop right on top of us then dumped another 20 inches. The ground was already saturated from the first round so the freeways all turned into lakes for the better part of a week.

[abner]

Bump!
This whole weekend was rained out. Grrr.... It was great to meet you though on Thursday.

[Dog]

This is thing will be almost directly over me.....oh crap. I'm in South Jersey....going to be a wild ride I think.

[blam]

"People here still talk about Agnes with awe and respect."

Same with Camille and Frederic in theses parts. My parents were without electric for five weeks after Frederic hit Mobile in '79.

[nwctwx]

ping :-p

[TommyDale]

"What will the economic impact be?"

I don't know about economic impact, but I'm more than just a bit upset that our golf tournament may be rained out!

[mewzilla]

Does your area do much in terms of hurricane prep?

[dogbyte12]

Let me be the third to agree. There are no heroes here. THe heroes are the ones who protect their families first, and then their property. Better safe than sorry. This is going to be a nasty one. I would scoff at a cat 1, but cat 5 means there will be major damage. It doesn't matter how big and burly you are, a falling tree will hurt ya.

Stay safe everybody.

[mikegi]

Hopefully, it will parallel the coast for awhile and dissipate a bunch. The forecast chart shows a rapid acceleration which should help weaken the storm.

This storm is somewhat weird. It has an extremely large eye. Look at the satellite images. I don't know what effect that has on the storm's intensity but I would guess it keeps the storm from strengthening.

My sister lives west of Philadelphia. If the storm follows the forecast track, she'll be just to the east of the center. Yikes!

[abner]

Thanks for the link. I'm not looking forward to this at all. My house is on a big hill, but my office is at the bottom of a big hill.

[Dog]

No.

[meg70]

I see why the folks on the Weather Channel were worried...

[NormsRevenge]

beer will get you thru times of no gasoline,,better than vice versa... urrr.. but I guess you would need gas to keep the generator going to keep the beer fridge cold. Darn. ;-)

Good luck to all the East Coasters and wishes for minimal damage at the worst , but either way, Be Prepared!

[abner]

My sister lives west of Philadelphia. If the storm follows the forecast track, she'll be just to the east of the center. Yikes!

That is where we are.

[Old Professer]

The 200MB and 500MB charts are showing movement of the central trough and winds close to 100MPH; the high pressure remains strong just off the coast and this is still too early to bet the rent money on.

[CROSSHIGHWAYMAN]

This baby might make 9-11 look like a picnic.

Do your research on the 1938 hurricane of Sept 21.

[mewzilla]

Boy, is this bringing back memories. And I can still recall what the mud smelled like, and we lived that smell for months.

[varon]

What will the economic impact be? Not good.

Look on the bright side. Just think of all the replacement merchandise that will need to be purchased which should get rid of any and all excess inventory laying around.
Also, the building trades will have guaranteed work for years to repair and rebuild.

It will be good for the economy but I still haven't figured out how George Bush managed to arrange it ;-)

[jmc813]

Thanks for the link. I'm not looking forward to this at all.

Is the ballooning season over?

BTW, I'm not sure if you're aware, but your balloon was featured on the screen of every Quick Check ATM machine promoting their festival a few months ago.

[SauronOfMordor]

If it comes up the Chesapeak Bay, it will get REAL interesting all along northern Virginia, Maryland, DC, and all of PA

[Dog Gone]

I certainly wouldn't count on the forecast track being accurate today. I realize the models are largely in agreement, and that increases the confidence level, but I'll be far more confident after tomorrow's projections are released. That will essentially be three days from landfall.

I'm still thinking that the storm will make landfall in the Carolinas. But with hurricane force winds extending 85 miles out from the eye, it's going to cut a wide swath wherever it hits.

[mewzilla]

Here's a good reference on the '38 storm from Intellicast's website.

[Checkmate]

I live in Florida so I'v been watching this one for a week. They keep correcting the track path to the left/west/south. It's started turning north finally but I'm worried about our friends in Charleston.

[abner]

Ballooning season is almost over. We had an event this weekend that was rained out. We have one more event in October. Albuquerque. Isabel looks like it could change our plans though... I hope not.

Yes, PNC Bank is our sponsor for that event. They also had calling cards made up. We have a couple of those for souvenirs. LOL. I never did see the ATM thing though.

[Dog Gone]

This is thing will be almost directly over me.....oh crap. I'm in South Jersey....going to be a wild ride I think.

This hurricane, named after your mother, is likely to be rather memorable. Stay safe and don't take chances!