Posted on 09/15/2003 9:41:58 AM PDT by Tailgunner Joe
China has deployed up to 150,000 troops on its border with North Korea to deter Pyongyang's nuclear build-up and contain mounting violence from rogue North Korean soldiers, a report here said yesterday.
Five divisions of Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) troops had been deployed in Yanbian Korean autonomous prefecture, bordering North Korea, since last month, an unidentified security source in China was quoted as saying by Hong Kong's Sunday Morning Post.
Large troop movements and new military barracks had also surfaced in the border towns of Hanchun, Tumen, Kaishan, Sanhe and Baijing, while air force jets had frequently been seen flying over the capital Yanji, 40km from the border, the report added.
But Mr Kong Quan, China's Foreign Ministry spokesman, last Tuesday refused to confirm or deny the reported deployment of PLA troops.
Hong Kong's Chinese-language Sing Tao Daily had earlier reported that three PLA units - each with 50,000 troops, including armoured divisions - had been deployed along the 1,400km border.
The paper quoted a Chinese Foreign Ministry source as saying the move was aimed at deterring North Korea from continuing its nuclear build-up and pressurising Pyongyang into holding talks with the United States.
The Sunday Morning Post said residents of Yanbian prefecture also believed the PLA troops were there to halt the violent crimes such as murder allegedly carried out by North Korean soldiers.
China is also positioning itself to take advantage of situations, including a U.S. attack or NK meltdown. Very delicate situation.
Horse-sh*t! One phone call from Beijing would have put the whack-job with the bad haircut in place. At best, this is for show.
How do you halt such crimes without actual contact with those doing the crimes?
This doesn't smell right. Could these be reinforcements in response to a counterattack that will occur after a North Korean offensive move?
What is past is prologue. They are setting up their supply lines and reinforcements just as you suggested.
That was my first thought, but then China would claim the territory, and not relinquish it to S. Korea.
I agree. Never underestimate the ChiComs.
The US sits down with China to talk about North Korea.
“It’s your problem, not ours,” we say.
“Fine,” says China, “so that means Taiwan is on the table.”
“No.”
“Then f*** you, it’s still your problem.”
As the Chinese prepare to leave the room the US says, “Fellas, Kim says he’s going to sell nuclear technology to anybody who can deliver hard cash. You’ve got Muslim separatist groups out west. If you aren’t careful, some day they’re going to put a North Korean nuke in a truck, park it a mile from party headquarters, and you’re going to wake up to a bright flash. There goes the Central Committee. There goes the Party. There goes China. Are you sure you want to play it this way? Maybe it’s time you took responsibility for your own back yard. You created and nurtured the sonofabitch. You fix it.”
The Chinese sit down again.
OCCURRENCE #2
Two factions in the Central Committee have it out.
The Old Men have a sentimental attachment to North Korea and see a victorious North Korea conquering South Korea and forcing US troops off the peninsula, thus bringing a united Korea into the Chinese sphere of influence.
The Young Dragons understand that the Elder Kim conned both Mao and Stalin into backing a dangerous and stupid act in 1950 that blew up in China’s face. "If you want to get Americans off the peninsula," they say, "then topple North Korea. Broker the unification of Korea. The German unification experience indicates that a united Korea would be unable to function as an economic competitor to China for a decade at least, maybe even a generation. Make sure the united Korea understands which side of the bowl its kim-chee has garlic on, bring them economically into the Chinese sphere of influence, and have them send the Americans home."
"But that means betraying and toppling a Fraternal Communist Power," say the Old Men in alarm.
"Aw, grow up," say the Young Dragons. "Korea is worth the price of a betrayal."
OCCURRENCE #3
The Central Committee goes to the Peoples’ Liberation Army and asks the question, “What would it take to topple North Korea, occupy the country and put in a government that understands who’s boss?”
“Nuclear or non-nuclear?” asks the PLA.
“Non-nuclear.”
The PLA comes back and says, “We don’t have the forces to go non-nuclear. The whole society is militarized. Think "Sparta". We’d get our clocks cleaned the way we did when we invaded Vietnam back in 1979. And remember, those little bastards have their own nukes! We would have to use our nukes first.”
OCCURRENCE #4
The Russians phone and tell the Chinese, “Guys, if you use nukes on North Korea, the prevailing winds will send fallout over our turf. Your nukes are 30 years behind the times. We have state-of-the-art neutron bombs that can do the job with a minimum of fallout. If you’re serious about using nukes to fix the North Korean problem, give us the contract.”
The Chinese and Russians make sure the Younger Kim is aware of this bit of dialogue.
OCCURRENCE #5
The Chinese bitch-slap the Younger Kim by cutting off his oil for three days. “Technical problems,” the Chinese say to the world in a press release. “Nothing personal, strictly business,” they say to Kim. “Do us a favor, and stop f***ing with us.” But Kim doesn’t take the hint.
The Chinese cut off his oil a second time. Kim starts to listen and play ball but then starts up his usual BS. China’s patience is wearing thin.
OCCURRENCE #6
Go to the top of this thread. The enforcers have arrived.
Maybe, maybe not. I'll say that's the most likely possibility (that "rogue North Korean soldier" stuff has "bad Commie cover story" written all over it), but not necessarily so. If Juche Fruit decided to just stop taking their calls, what's the big downside for him? It's not like the aid from the PRC is feeding his people. And let's not forget that the man is not just evil, he's also a fruit-loop. He may have himself convinced that his people are doing well, or that they love him so much they'll watch their kids starve while throwing him kudos. If so, why not ditch China? They've been holding up glorious reunification for decades. Frankly, if the man was still mentally competent, he wouldn't send his negotiators to the table with the U.S. to declare that he's trying to build the Wal-Mart of nukes--After 9/11, threatening to sell nukes is one of the diagnostic criteria for suicidal tendencies.
This probably is for show, but if it's not, this situation is even more dangerous than I thought.
Here is the situation. China is displacing 150k soldiers from a sedintary, garrison military force, sending them away from their support structure to a barren, unpopulated border. This is not something they do lightly, and their timing is suspect to say the least. Something has roused them from an otherwise stable life in garrison, and sent them rolling at great effort and expense towards a nominally friendly border.
So naturally, one wonders, 'Why bother?' There are two related reasons. They fear a huge influx of NK refugees, and they anticipate conflict. It's hard to imagine a scenario that has one and not the other.
Lets put the refugee issue aside for a moment and focus on the armed conflict. Implosion or explosion, the Chinese clearly feel that the DPRK is sliding into destruction, and they intend to be ready. But for what? To help them military, like back in '50? That is an option, but a senseless one. It would make an active enemy out of the U.S., Japan, South Korea, and whoever valued trade with these three more than they feared China. This alone would annihilate their economy, and shatter their standing as a legitimate world power. They could forget about getting Taiwan back, and could look forward to cruise missiles slicing apart their force projection infrastructure. The internal pressure (read: riots and panci) would likely bring down the regime in short order.
All for a war they can't win? Sure, they did it before, and without nuclear weapons to back them up. That analogy, however, fails very quickly when viewed with a little perspective. Chairman Mao is long dead, as is the absolute power he wielded. Today's CCP doesn't have the level of control needed to force another million soldiers into the meat grinder. It was possible under Mao due to ignorance, wounded national pride, and a twisted cult of personality. The limp wristed beauracrats that fumble at the controls today know better than to try and follow in his footsteps, in peace or in war. Mao was a powerful, vicious, visionary emperor who didn't care an ounce about repercussions; today's rulers ingore the bottom line at their peril.
And the bottom line is this: China would reap no forseeable benefit by taking on every Pacific power there is to fall on the sword for Kim Jong Il. They would lose everything by even trying.
So what's their game?
Rest assured, it's not to help us. The refugee problem is a concern, but not their most serious concern. If North Korea is defeated and taken by the US/ROK forces, there will be a large American military presence within a few days drive from Beijing. That is not tolerable, yet in the event of war it is inevitable. Once the gloves come off, no amount of conventional power will stop the US/ROK forces from driving the KPA up to the banks of the Yalu. It's just a matter of time.
Unless...
China switches teams, in the grand tradition of our good mutual friend Joe. Stalin, that is. Old Joe managed to get half of Europe (and a large chunk of Korea, coincidentally enough) by getting on board with the winning team. At the outset of war, China could enter western North Korea, opposed or unopposed, and make their way to Pyongyang while the battle at the DMZ rages. The DPRK doesn't have the military resources to fend off a serious attack on two fronts, and they have all their forces pointed south. A solid Chinese assault could break in the back door, overthrow the government, send Kim into exile or oblivion, and assume control of the country. Rather than have to deal with a loose cannon, they could install a real puppet government with chains instead of strings. Although they would handle the 'physical security' of NK, we would naturally be invited to send aid so we could do 'our part'.
Is this a good option? Not for us. We'd still take the pounding at the DMZ, but we'd soon encounter 'friendly' forces not far from the starting line. It would be a devastating fight for a few miles of real estate. Same goes for South Korea. They'd take a pounding, and wouldn't have much to show for it. Plus, it would complicate our counterattack. After a week or two of carnage at the DMZ, Chinese troops riding to the rescue would look good even to our side. There would be incredible pressure to work with them, to end the bloodshed as soon as possible, even if it meant handing them the country. Also, our nuclear options would be limited if 'friendly' troops started appearing early on.
From North Korea's standpoint, it's a pretty good deal. For one thing, North Koreans believe China is their friend, and all other countries are their enemies. It is plausible that Chinese troops could arrive 'to help' without causing a panic. The presence of 'enemy' troops would cause terror and resistance. North Koreas are taught from the cradle that U.S. or ROK soldiers are literally demonic fiends, so in this respect even iron fisted Chinese invaders would be more comforting and understandable than friendly seeming foriegn devils.
The big winner would be China. To steal a phrase, they could keep the North Koreans in, the South Koreans down, and the U.S. out. North Korea could be gradually repaired and rehabilitated until it was possible for South to reunite with them. In the mean time, they would make South Korea reduce their U.S. presence as they reduced the PLA forces in the north. This would leave a newly reborn Korea nation free of U.S. control and badly weakened by reuinification.
Not a bad resolution to an otherwise unsolvable problem. China rides to the rescue, pulling the U.S./ ROK forces out of a quagmire at the DMZ, saves the region from nuclear fallout, quells a humanitarian disaster, helps Korea reunite, and all in time to calm Japan back into pacifism. Perfectly self serving, and perfectly legit. It's not as clean as Kim abdicating, but it makes the best of a bad situation.
The Chinese may stay on their side of the border, but I wouldn't count on it.
The paper quoted a Chinese Foreign Ministry source as saying the move was aimed at deterring North Korea from continuing its nuclear build-up and pressurising Pyongyang into holding talks with the United States.
The Sunday Morning Post said residents of Yanbian prefecture also believed the PLA troops were there to halt the violent crimes such as murder allegedly carried out by North Korean soldiers.
Interestingly enough, there may be more truth in this article than they realize. North Korean prison camps are operated by the military. Or perhaps the tank divisions are just there for backup, for the occasional rogue NK soldier who's isn't vulnerable to anything less than 120mm main guns.
If that happens, there may be far more to it than the reunification of the two Koreas.
In that regard ... THIS should be among the top news stories of the day.
Massing armies on borders means -- in all probabllity -- war.
Hard to say. No one has more insight into North Korea than China does, and they don't have much. Insofar as China could arrange a coup themselves, it's a very risky proposition, and the Chinese don't like risks. It is almost impossible that the Chinese have knowledge of a coup being planned in NK, and given the timing of their troop movements, I would doubt the possibility of an inside job. This is why:
Any North Korean official that is caught plotting against the regime would die. Very, very slowly. North Koreans are masters of torture: methodical, patient, and thorough. This fact is not lost on the would be conspirator. He may live long enough to see three generations of his family tortured to death before his eyes. He may not. Either way, it's not a course of action he'd advertise to the Chinese.
(Interesting side note: The very suspicion of disloyalty has condemened entire families to prison camps for decades. The North Korean regime doesn't promote anyone without sufficient family ties to be considered vulnerable. That way, if they step out of line, they know that they're bringing everyone down with them.)
Kim in an interesting case. He's unbelievably paranoid, and values loyalty to himself and the regime above all in his subordinates. Anyone who's risen in power high enough to be dangerous knows that any offer to join in a coup, from your boss, uncle, best friend, co worker, etc, could be a test from the Man.
There are also risks to suddenly decapitating the regime.
The main risk is that socially, North Korea is on very, very shaky ground. The cult of personality, ignorance, and fear, keep people in line under immense pressure. Suddenly decapitating the government without a cult figure to replace him with could lead to civil disorder and anarchy. I'm sure we could secretly pop Kim with a JDAM while he relaxes at a mountain resort, but the issue is the same. China and South Korea desperately want to avoid a meltdown. Of lesser concern, some die hard commander(s) may attempt to launch attacks independently if they fear the end is near. Initiative is not a valued trait in the KPA, to say the least, but there is no guarentee that all commanders would sit idly by as the nation collapsed.
Personally, I'd be very happy with a coup, a meltdown, and total anarchy. That option has the least potential for bloodshed. The Chinese and South Koreans are more inclined to look at the financial impact of a North Korean implosion, however. The North Koreans would be inclined to look at the consequences of failure. I'd like to think that in so desperate a situation some North Koreans are out and out conspirators. Perhaps the corrupt ones who manage finances and supplies, and know which other guys are dirty, have worked up the courage to plan something really dangerous. I sure hope so.
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