China puts troops on border with North Korea

The Telegraph ^ | September 16, 2003 | Richard Spencer in Beijing

[FreepForever]

China has deployed troops along the border with North Korea, it confirmed yesterday, in a sign of growing concern over its neighbour's social and economic breakdown.

A brief statement issued by the foreign ministry in Beijing said the People's Liberation Army had taken over patrolling the north-eastern border zone from the People's Armed Police. Reports from Hong Kong newspapers that 150,000 troops had flooded the area were neither confirmed nor denied.

The deployment is a response not only to the problem of refugees from Pyongyang's Stalinist regime, but to growing reports of crime against local Chinese by North Koreans scavenging for food.

Among the worst offenders are said to be Korean soldiers who slip across the border to steal supplies, sometimes using violence. Since the famine of the 1990s, when an estimated two million North Koreans starved, increasing numbers have fled to China.

Some have merely begged help from the large indigenous Korean population in the border area and returned. Others have sought asylum in western embassies or completed their escape by moving on to friendly countries. Many - 300,000 according to some estimates - remain in hiding in China.

The move announced yesterday may be an attempt to put pressure on North Korea to co-operate in talks over its nuclear weapons programme.

But it is most likely a preparation for an influx of refugees this winter, when food supplies run low and the River Tumen, which separates the countries, freezes over and is easier to cross.

If it is aimed at soldiers rather than civilians, it may be a confirmation of reports that North Korea's infrastructure has begun to break down, leading to greater isolation for some of its armed forces.

[FreepForever]

Another article about China's troop deployment to N Korean border.

[FreepForever]

(((((PING)))))
Freepmail for on and off list.

[Credo]

Can we bomb across the Yalu River now?

[Little Ray]

Actually, the PRC's move makes pefect sense. They are protecting their borders, just as we should protect ours.

There is also some opinion that holds that the PRC is about to overthrow Kim Jong Il, which would be a boon to all concerned (except for the evil little gargoyle himself).

[BenLurkin]

Just the bridges.

[BenLurkin]

ping

[.cnI redruM]

The presence of 150K Chinese troops in NK may be a reaction to unpredicatability. They really don't know how either we or KIJ will react to oneanother.

I'm beginning to put less stock in the potency of the refugee issue. China just doesn't like having 'interesting' neighbors.

[Steel Wolf]

The Chinese border reinforcement, as listed by other articles on the subject, is a 150k strong force of 3 group armies. Each is said to have 3 infantry divisions, an armored division, and an artillery division, with roughly 10k in each division.

This is to stop refugees? I'd say 'Only if they're fleeing in tanks.' but North Korea doesn't have enough fuel to flee very far.

I suspect foul play.

[FreepForever]

The refugee issue is just one outcome that PRC doesn’t want to see. The PRC has excellent intelligence in DPRK. It seems that PRC has concluded that the days of Kim Jong-Il’s regime are really numbered, with or without external intervention, DPRK will implode.

That’s means: a regime change is both imminent and a forgone conclusion. The prelude to such an event is usually social uprising, riots, strikes, looting, mutiny in the army, etc. Even the assassination of Kim is not that unthinkable.

If any of such sh!t hit the fan, the PLA across the border will quickly step in to restore order and prevent further turmoil. The most important task lies in the aftermath of the crisis. Their military presence is to ensure that they can prop up a new (and more moderate) government which is more pro-Beijing than pro-Western (which is Beijing’s nightmare). On the other hand, Beijing has no interest at all to occupy N Korea. It is an invitation to trouble.

[.cnI redruM]

So if NK implodes, do you think they'll talk to us first or cross the border w/ about 600 tanks?

[.cnI redruM]

So if NK implodes, do you think they'll talk to us first or cross the border w/ about 600 tanks?

[FreepForever]

If the inevitable happens, I expect there will be high level “behind the scene” talks between PRC and the US. To prevent further turmoil in the Korean Peninsula, the only sensible outcome is to have a new North Korean government acceptable to all three parties (ie: PRC, USA and South Korea).

[.cnI redruM]

SO how does one partition NK between the PRC and SK. Obviously the South wants 1 Korea and CHina wants no such thing...

[Credo]

I don't see much talk about another country that share a land frontier with NK. Russia. From what I understand, they're really not thrilled with "Dear Leader's" adventurism.

I don't think China would flat out take over Pyongyang. They would install some goombah as a puppet.

[swarthyguy]

Funny if they came all the way down to the DMZ.

Not that China has ever surprised anyone before.

[Sparta]

I agree with you the PLA has intel that suggest Kim Jung Il is almost done and they're moving in to prepare for the aftermath. Also keep in mind, the PRC has been cozying up to South Korea for the past few years and both countries have many financial interests in the other.

[GOP_1900AD]

Then we will have completely lost the Korean War instead of only half losing it. Korea would be Communist in entirety. What a sad statement that would be about Western resolve in the age of idiotic worship of Fukuyama and (T.L.) Friedman.

[potlatch]

I am surprised to hear the borders are so porous there! Not much different than ours!!

[FreepForever]

North Korea is just the largest refugee camp in Asia -- A non-functioning bureaucracy controlling 23 million hungry population with extremely low productivity due to half a century of self-isolation. Her economy is reduced to just a big pile of IOU’s. North Korea has sparse natural resources; even birds, rodents, worms and insects are depleted by the starving people.

Whoever wants to invade and/or occupy North Korea would have to bear the dreadful responsibility of feeding the population for the next 20 years until they can revamp their Russian-era obsolete production facilities and backward infrastructure. To help the North Koreans to become self-sufficient sooner, besides food, the occupying force must also provide medical aid, education, social services, etc. This is not a small undertaking. China is never known for such benevolence and altruism.

Geographically, North Korea’s strategic value to PRC is overestimated by the West. Historically, the Korean Peninsula was considered a springboard between expansionistic Japan and USSR in the early 19th century. Now, it is more of an obstacle than a stepping stone in China’s aggression against her Asian neighbors. None of PRC’s future military operations need to be staged through the wasteland of North Korea. Over land, it leads to nowhere of military importance. And, unlike Taiwan, North Korea has no control of the important shipping channels in the Pacific.

There is no strategic, economic, political and military incentive at all for PRC to invade and/or occupy North Korea. The bottom line is: why China wants to forestall her successful fast growing economy plan and risk a direct military conflict with the US for a chance to feed 23 million very hungry people? What’s the logic behind this. China has a much grander scheme than this. China wants to become the world’s next superpower. And, the taking over of North Korea doesn’t help a single bit. If China is willing to wager all their wealth accumulated in the past 25 years on military adventurism, it is for Taiwan, not North Korea.

Even after the collapse of Kim’s regime, I expect both the US and PRC will be bystanders if there is no mass bloodshed or humanitarian crisis that warrants military intervention. This can of worm is too big for anyone to handle and the reward is too little. Even the UN will look the other way if they are not forced to pick up this hot potato.

If the North and South Koreans want to reunify, no one has any moral reason to object, not even the US and PRC. If there is anyone who are willing to help the North Koreans to stand on her own feet, it is the South Koreans, if they are willing to donate half of all they have to their northern brothers. Personally, I think this is an economic disaster, but I cannot claim I understand Korean nationalism.

Both the US and PRC will compete for influence in the unified Korea but they will not be the main players. There will be mixed feeling from PRC because the newly unified Korea now has a large supply of cheap labor and doesn’t have to rely on China’s manufacturing resources. With the threat from the North removed, Korea will have less reason to maintain a heavy US military presence in the peninsula and PRC will press for this for obvious reasons.

[Credo]

Good points all.

The only think I can offer is Korea sits on their flanks. The PRC has a pretty successful trading relationship with the ROK. The relationship with the DPRK is from a bygone area and I'm sure the PRC wishes the idiot from Pyongyang would just disappear. The problem for the PRC (and the Russians) is if "Dear Leader" gets Japan's attention enough that Japan decides that it cannot just depend on America's benevolence for defense and starts to rearm and possibly develop their own nuclear weapons program. Then it becomes more than a backwater issue.

The only think the DPRK exports is misery. Some of that misery is in the form of missiles. Would they willingly export nuclear weapons technology too. Kim Jong Il is crazy obviously. How much damage can he cause before his regime finally collapses?

[FreepForever]

Kim Jong Il’s nuclear extortion (or scam) is another reason why PRC wants Kim removed (or silenced). First, he picks a fight with the biggest guy on the block (the US) and then hides behind China, thinking PRC would protect him according to their mutual defense treaty. China’s troop deployment is telling Kim that this game won’t work: “Why do we have to pay the price for the trouble you created?”

Second, China’s military dominance in Asia depends on one thing -- that all her Asian neighbors stay dormant while PRC secretly and constantly builds her military power. However, Kim’s nuclear extortion is waking everybody in the Asia up. This will start an arm race which is detrimental to China’s economic growth.

At present, all circumstantial evidence on Kim’s nuclear extortion is based on Kim’s one-sided bluffing. This disparate nut-case dictator is only using GWB’s war on terrorism to gain some advantage. He knows that his days are numbered and any advantage gained can buy his regime some extra time. Until solid evidence is found, I tend to think the whole thing is a scam.

Why? Because the whole thing is psychologically illogical to me. Even if Kim is capable of making a couple of nuclear device, it is still no match with the US military power; like a pellet shooter against an M-16. If you are the owner of the pellet shooter, would you brag about it? Then, why does Kim have to announce his plan to the whole world? If he intends to use it, wouldn’t it do more damage to the US (or the West) by a sneak attack? Why attract such attention before he really make a move? What kind of psychology is this?

If he has already got the device and is ready to (or intended to) sell it to rogue nations and terrorist groups, this is even stranger. Why make a public announcement and make such secret deals difficult for both the buyers and seller? That’s why, until this minute, I still think it is a scam. I am not discounting the danger of this mad man. I just find this behavior illogical and unexplainable. Or, are we too logical to examine the thinking of a mad man?

If it is a scam, time is against Kim. The best strategy is to halfheartedly play ball with him. Pretend to be scared by him but stand firm. Drag on the negotiation for years and watch him go berserk. With the dire strait that DPRK is in, it will implode even if no one do anything at all.

[Credo]

I will take the cop out and answer your questions with another question.

Is KJI really rational? I mean he may actually think he can challenge the US. Another question. Are there any cooler heads in the regime capable of bumping him off?

[FreepForever]

There is no argument that Kim is 100% certified crazy. Do you call challenging an M-16 with a pellet shooter a real challenge? He may actually think he can challenge the US. What if he is the only one who think he can challenge the US? For Kim’s scam to work, both sides (the challenger and the challenged) must believe that the threat is real.

However, if the M-16 owner believes the pellet shooter owner can actually through with his threat, then it is a credible threat. The threat must be taken seriously and removed. The question is: why Kim do this to himself? What is his plan? Why ask to be destroyed? What’s the logic behind this?

No, in Kim’s system, all cooler heads are either dead or in prison. He doesn’t allow any power beside him. The same applies to other crazy dictators like Hitler, Stalin and Mao.

[FreepForever]

Typo: can actually follow through with his threat

[Credo]

I may not be following right - do you see the ROK trying to take over after the inevitable collapse of the DPRK?

Is China trying to accelerate the collapse to have a stable Korean trading partnership?

[FreepForever]

Reunification seems the only logical outcome after DPRK collapse. I can only judge it by the sentiment of the South Korean public. A majority of them are pro-reunification. I think they will follow the East/West German model of reunification. But again, I fear that this could be an economic black hole and the South Korean economy may not be robust enough to withstand the impact. On the other hand, the sudden change to capitalism and market economy may not be a good thing to the people in the north. China has abundant natural resources and it took her twenty years to adapt to market economy and start to profit from it. North Korea has nothing except hungry people. They better start looking at their agriculture before they talk about industrialization.

No, China never considers DPRK an obstacle to normalization of trading relationship with ROK. Therefore, PRC’s concern about DPRK is more on regional political stability than economic reasons. China is not trying to accelerate the collapse of Kim’s regime. PRC doesn’t want to see the situation suddenly getting uncontrollable. Their worst nightmare is PRC being forced to step in but couldn’t pass the hot potato to anyone.

[.cnI redruM]

Wow...If noone were willing to take NK, it would have serious Afghanistan potential. This really could become a very bad thing.

[GunnyHartman]

"Can we bomb across the Yalu River now? "

I have just announced legislation, outlawing Red China forever. We begin bombing in five minutes!"

[LisaAnne]

Thanks for the ping!

[Shanghai]

GunnyHartman, when did you become a bomber? thought you had been a butcher ;-)

[Shanghai]

GunnyHartman, when did you become a bomber? thought you had been a butcher ;-)

[Southack]

Eventually, even the Red Chinese will begin to comprehend that a Communist North Korea is not in their best interests.

China wants to be Asia's regional super power. To achieve this goal, they must convince U.S. forces to leave. To this end they have been successful in the Philippines and Vietnam. But they have utterly failed in Taiwan and Korea.

However, if the PLA removes Kim Il Jung by force and then China later withdraws from NK altogether (though not necessarily rapidly), the two halves would unite back into one Korea as did East and West Germany. With the correct treaties and diplomatic overtures post-Korean unification, the U.S. would willingly remove our forces from SK...thus handing over another goal to the Chinese (they don't need to be in Korea, they just need the U.S. out of there), leaving only Taiwan and Japan (not counting Australia and India in this line of thought) as significant pro-U.S. counter-balances to Chinese influence in Asia.

[monkeywrench]

"Whoever wants to invade and/or occupy North Korea would have to bear the dreadful responsibility of feeding the population for the next 20 years until they can revamp their Russian-era obsolete production facilities and backward infrastructure. To help the North Koreans to become self-sufficient sooner, besides food, the occupying force must also provide medical aid, education, social services, etc. This is not a small undertaking."

I suspect this had alot to do with why the left wanted President Bush to go after NK rather than Iraq. We would truly be in a quagmire right now.

[Steel Wolf]

The Chinese soldiers there could easily move in as 'peacekeepers' to liberate North Korea while everyone else is slugging it out on the DMZ. That way, the PLA could keep the large US / ROK juggernaut from rolling up on the Heilongjiang again.

As a cultural quirk, North Koreans would accept Chinese troops far more easily than they would Americans or even South Koreans. For the short term, they would probably do a very good, if harsh, job. They'd be in place to keep refugees from spilling out in every direction. They could also enforce the distribution of aid in a fair manner, and begin the long process of reform and rebuilding.

At some point, they'd want to leave, and make their withdrawl coincide with ours. A large, democratic and prosperous Korea may lean more towards China than it does towards us, but it will also act as an example to influence China away from tyranny and repression. China doesn't particularly want that now, but they may very well wind up with it.

This will be a move years in the making, but I don't think it's the worst outcome. Even with the withdrawl of our troops, it would be a gain for our side. We won't leave Japan until Japan is rearmed, and that will balance out the region even more. With Korean and Japan free, rich and powerful, it will allow us to concentrate more on our interests in SE Asia.

[GunnyHartman]

"GunnyHartman, when did you become a bomber? thought you had been a butcher ;-)"

The ChiComs are the true butchers, numbnuts!