Analysts: Tape suggests bin Laden hurt or dead

Knight Ridder ^ | 09/19/03 | JOHN WALCOTT

[Pokey78]

WASHINGTON -- After examining new video and audio tapes of Osama bin Laden that were broadcast last week, U.S. intelligence analysts have concluded that the fugitive al-Qaida leader is probably ill or injured and could be incapacitated or even dead.

Three administration officials, all speaking on the condition of anonymity because intelligence matters are classified, said the videotape, which showed bin Laden hiking in the mountains, could have been made up to two years ago and that an audio track of bin Laden speaking was recorded separately, also some time ago, and overlaid on the video. The only recent recording was a second audio track, recorded by bin Laden's top lieutenant, Ayman al Zawahri.

The two audio tracks, one of bin Laden and one of Zawahri, were recorded in different locations and are of very different technical quality, said one intelligence official, suggesting that the two top al-Qaida leaders are no longer together after years of being virtually inseparable.

The officials all cautioned that it's impossible to draw any firm conclusions from the tapes, but they said the new material has strengthened the belief that bin Laden is ailing and that Zawahri may now be running al-Qaida or preparing to succeed a weakened bin Laden.

"I think there's a pretty broad consensus that bin Laden's probably alive but not well," said one senior official.

Some analysts have offered alternative explanations for the old tapes, including one holding that bin Laden may be healthy but so worried about his security that he's unwilling to allow anyone near him with an audio or video tape recorder.

One of the officials noted that the Israelis have killed some Palestinian militants with cell phones rigged with bombs, and that al-Qaida is believed to have assassinated Afghan opposition leader Ahmad Shah Mahsoud with a bomb planted in a video camera the weekend before the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on New York and Washington.

Other intelligence analysts believe the tapes may indicate that Zawahri, an Egyptian doctor who became bin Laden's top aide when his Egyptian Islamic Jihad merged with bin Laden's al-Qaida, may be positioning himself to take an even more prominent role in the terrorist organization, or even to replace bin Laden as its leader. However, one analyst said, Zawahri "probably wouldn't be stepping up if bin Laden weren't down."

The officials said a takeover of al-Qaida by Zawahri wouldn't have much effect on the organization because bin Laden and his top aide have long worked closely to drive the United States out of the Middle East and to topple regimes in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere in the Muslim world that they consider corrupt and dependent on the West.

There has long been speculation that bin Laden may be ill, wounded or both. Pakistani officials have claimed that the fugitive Saudi's kidneys are failing and that he requires dialysis. Some U.S. intelligence officials think he may have been wounded, perhaps in one arm, as he fled from attacking American and Afghan forces in December 2001 in the mountainous Tora Bora region near the Afghanistan-Pakistan border.

The last confirmed contact with bin Laden occurred just before the battle in Tora Bora, when he was heard on the radio exhorting his men, but intelligence analysts believe he, and probably Zawahri, are still hiding in the remote tribal areas along the border.

[mhking]

Elvis has left the building...

Just damn.

If you want on the new list, FReepmail me. This IS a high-volume PING list...

[Fred Mertz]

OBL has been dead for nearly two years.

[ConservativeMan55]

Pork Anyone?

Pork is meat derived from hogs. Wild hogs were domesticated during the Stone Age, about 8,000 years ago, and were imported to the New World in the 1500s by early explorers. Since hogs flourish on a diet of corn, most hog farms in the United States are located in the corn belt of the Midwest. Only a third of the pork produced each year is eaten fresh. Most pork is smoked, cured, or processed. Pork is available as chops, roasts, spareribs, ham, bacon, Canadian bacon (low-fat bacon resembling ham), sausage, and a wide variety of luncheon meats, including liverwurst.

[cubreporter]

We've said that all along and we believe it to be true! OBL is gone and good riddance.

[Brian S]

all speaking on the condition of anonymity ...

End of article!

That was fun. Now I understand why I read "that" daily on articles I post without named sources. ;)

[WOSG]

It would be nice to prove that ...

[wolf24]

That's exactly where I stopped reading as well.

[Libertarianize the GOP]

bump

[Eric in the Ozarks]

You've left out an entire catagory:
The worldwide pork rind industry. Pork rinds, and their food group counsins are leading the way to better enjoyment of pork products everywhere.
Recently, food scientists have developed microwave pork rinds which, like microwave popcorn, can expand 25 times their initial size.

[Timesink]

Some analysts have offered alternative explanations for the old tapes...

Translation: Nobody knows jack sh*t and they're all just talking out their asses. If any of the anonymously quoted "experts" even exist in the first place.

[concerned about politics]

Bin Ladin himself has not been around for a while. Just old stuff. He's dead, Jim.

[omegatoo]

Don't forget the pickled pig lips(and feet) and chitlins

But I wouldn't expect someone from way up north there in Oklahoma to remember those ;^D
O2

[concerned about politics]

But I wouldn't expect someone from way up north there in Oklahoma to remember those ;^D

Awwww. My grandmother used to eat those. ACK!
It used to gross me out.

[Mike Darancette]

I believe that Usama's problems began and maybe ended at Tora Bora on 12/11/01.

[new cruelty]

A certain convocation of politic worms are e'en at him.

[McGavin999]

He's dead.

[Allan]

U.S. intelligence analysts have concluded
that the fugitive al-Qaida leader is probably ill or injured
and could be incapacitated or even dead.

How much did they get paid for that amazing analysis?
How do I get a job as a U.S. intelligence analyst?
I could have announced the same thing a year ago without listening to any tapes.

[nuconvert]

I've never heard of that before, never seen that before, and never want to see it again.

It's something nightmares are made of.......

[concerned about politics]

I've never heard of that before, never seen that before, and never want to see it again.

It's something nightmares are made of.......

It looks like a jar of pickled people.

[nuconvert]

Oh Gee, Thanks!

[MediaMole]

Wow, farmers always say they can use everything but the "oink." I never believed them until right now.

[nutmeg]

all speaking on the condition of anonymity ...

End of article!

That's exactly where I stopped reading as well.

Same here!

[herkbird]

Pickled pigs feet may look raunchy, but they sure do taste great. Like many foods, such as raw oysters, you love em or hate em.

[concerned about politics]

Pickled pigs feet may look raunchy, but they sure do taste great. Like many foods, such as raw oysters, you love em or hate em.

Wouldn't it be like biting someone elses fingernails?

[Petronski]

Damnit, I told you: He's dead, Jim.

[Reagan Man]

Bin Laden's been dead since the Tora Bora military action.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

Add to that, real hog jowls are served with mashed potatoes and gravy at Lambert's, home of throwed rolls, in Sikeston, MO.

[Kay Soze]

He is dead.

The islamo facisits would love nothing better than to prove he is alive... if they could.

[FairOpinion]

"Tape suggests bin Laden hurt or dead"

---

Daschle and the Democrats are deeply saddened. They won't be able to whine to Bush about it anymore "Why didn't we get Bin Laden yet?".

Of course they never mention that we captured or killed 2/3 of the AQ leaders already.

[Eric in the Ozarks]

I ordered the raw oysters at a poolside bar in Ixtapa a few years ago. There were big, smelled and tasted clean and went perfectly with Mexican beer.
I decided to remember them that way.

[ASA Vet]

How much did they get paid for that amazing analysis?

Not a lot if they really exist. More likely they're just fictional.

How do I get a job as a U.S. intelligence analyst?

The military is a good place to get started.
This can be a long interesting career field.
After you have the training and experience you could apply to one of the many intel producing agencies.
Don't bother if you can't get a clearance.
I had a clerk once who it turned out could'nt get a clearance because of a bank robbery conviction.
The bozo didn't think we'd really check.
He caused a several month delay in filing the position.

Also don't waste everyones time if you're a densa member.

[jamaly]

Add to that, real hog jowls are served with mashed potatoes and gravy at Lambert's, home of throwed rolls, in Sikeston, MO.

You are making me homesick. The Cotton Carnival will be held in Sikeston next week and I won't get to be there. But, I will defintely be thinking about it and wishing I was eating at Lambert's. Also, a good ol' Kirby burger would definitely be a must have, too!

[ido_now]

"Damnit, I told you: He's dead, Jim."

Agree, Petronski!

But you must acknowledge that a dead Bin Laden and Saddam would leave a gaping hole in the "Who's The Big Bad Wolf" of the moment.

[Polybius]

It would be nice to prove that ...

To this day, America has no way to "prove" that Hitler is dead.

Sure, the Russians claimed to have found his body in 1945 but there is no physical evidence in American possesion that can "prove" that Hitler may not be a 114 year old geezer living in a secret Russian hospital.

Most of us have video cameras. Now, what is easiest to do?

A. Simply pointing the video camera at someone and pressing the "Record" button as they speak.

or

B. Taking a tape of a subject who is not speaking and then having a separate audio portion dubbed over it.

The more time passes without seeing any tape that mentions any current event and takes Option A, the more I am convinced that Osama bin Ladin is as dead as Adolph Hitler.

[ohioWfan]

OBL has been dead for nearly two years.

Hey, man! We actually AGREE on something!

That's a first in a LONG time!

[veryconernedamerican]

yap i second that, no verified evidence after that of him being alive, almost daily evidence before. intercepted cell calls and four daisy cutters, and magically no one has seen or heard from him since, except for a bunch of edited audio and video of indeterminate age. if he was alive it would ther is no positive of not proving it, and it would be easy do to so.

[truth_seeker]

"The officials said a takeover of al-Qaida by Zawahri wouldn't have much effect on the organization because bin Laden and his top aide have long worked closely to drive the United States out of the Middle East and to topple regimes in Saudi Arabia and elsewhere in the Muslim world that they consider corrupt and dependent on the West."

A close check of facts reveals their efforts have backfired, and they are losing, not gaining, in their "jihad."

Troops still in middle east, Saudi regime still in power, Afghanistan and Iraq toppled, Israel more committed to survive. And not a few al Qaida thugs in prison, at Gitmo and in other nations.

As Stormin Norman might say: '...he's no military leader.'

[Imal]

"Things are looking grim for Generalissimo Francisco Franco..."

[exDemMom]

Recently, food scientists have developed microwave pork rinds which, like microwave popcorn, can expand 25 times their initial size.

I remember buying those in Maryland about 10 years ago; I haven't seen them since moving back to California. They were very interesting, and tended to crackle when being chewed, as if they were still in the process of "popping." They also took longer to cool than popcorn.

[exDemMom]

The military is a good place to get started. This can be a long interesting career field.

Then there are those of us who got started in the military and decided to get out on the flimsy excuse that we need a college education. Darn, I could have RETIRED by now!

Now, instead of retirement, I have a lousy PhD...maybe the Army will take me. I'm hoping, anyway.

[T. Jefferson]

The approach the administration should have taken was Bin Laden was killed in the Tora Bora attack. Unless we see concrete proof otherwise, we'll stand by this fact.

[jwh_Denver]

Good grief. OBL is making it look like God short changed cats with their 9 lives. He's probably dead, seriously ill, got decayed teeth, bugs in his beard, blah blah. Shut the eff up until you know. Damn media clowns.

[capitan_refugio]

In California and other parts of the American southwest, look for fried pork rinds under their Mexican name, "chicharones." Usually you can find them in the snack section or the Mexican food section of major supermarkets. Often, the come with a little seasoning packet, made up of mostly cayenne pepper.

It is a little known fact, but chicharones are in the same food group as beer.

[Once-Ler]

Has it occurred to you that this story might be designed to persuade lower tier Al-Qaida (who are under survalence) to contact their commanders and create some new leads?

Apparently not. You think the media's purpose is to inform you. LOL

[Smogger]

Translation: Nobody knows jack sh*t and they're all just talking out their asses. If any of the anonymously quoted "experts" even exist in the first place.

Bingo.

[jwh_Denver]

Has it occurred to you that this story might be designed to persuade lower tier Al-Qaida (who are under survalence) to contact their commanders and create some new leads?

Oh you think Al-Qaida believes the media? LMAO! SA.

[LibWhacker]

binny was treated to a Big Blue suppository at Tora Bora.

[Amelia]

Three administration officials, all speaking on the condition of anonymity because intelligence matters are classified, said...

So it's okay to give classified material to the press as long as you don't give your name?

If this is true, three administration officials ought to be going to jail.

[jacquej]

Nah, he's just pining for the fjords...