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*Poll says McClintock could win 1-0n-1 matchup*
National Review (The Corner) ^ | 9/22/03 | Peter Robinson

Posted on 09/24/2003 7:54:23 AM PDT by TheBigB

Brother Hugh, some news.

John Eastman, a professor of law at Chapman University and a frequent guest on your radio program, has just brought to my attention a poll that will interest you. Commissioned by the Lincoln Club of Orange County, the poll includes the following results:

If Arnold Schwarzenegger found himself in a head-to-head race against Cruz Bustamante--that is, in effect, if Tom McClintock dropped out of the race--then Schwarzenegger would win, 44 to 37 percent.

But if Tom McClintock found himself in a head-to-head race against Cruz Bustamante--that is, in effect, if Schwarzenegger dropped out of the race--then McClintock would win, 42 to 40 percent.

From the beginning, Hugh, you have made a single argument against McClintock, insisting that he cannot win.

But he can.


TOPICS: Front Page News; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections; US: California
KEYWORDS: california; cruz; mcclintock; recall; schwarzenegger
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From Peter Robinson to Hugh Hewitt. I had no idea how to search to see if this had been discussed, so apologies if it already has been brought out. The Lincoln Club endorsed Arnold.
1 posted on 09/24/2003 7:54:24 AM PDT by TheBigB
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To: TheBigB; Admin Moderator
Isn't there a rule about posting fictitious headings? If not, wouldn't this be a vanity post?
2 posted on 09/24/2003 7:57:00 AM PDT by NYC Republican
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To: NYC Republican
What exactly is fictitious?
3 posted on 09/24/2003 7:58:37 AM PDT by TheBigB ("Liberalism is a philosophy of sniveling brats." --P.J. O'Rourke)
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To: TheBigB
Hewitt said Simon would win and supported him in the primary.

He said Lundgren would win.

He said Bush CA would win in 2000.

Hugh is great. But he usually wrong.

4 posted on 09/24/2003 7:59:34 AM PDT by tallhappy
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To: TheBigB
Actually, the poll would prove that Arnold CAN WIN and McC is in a dead heat.

A two percentage point lead in a poll by a Republican group is at best a toss up.
5 posted on 09/24/2003 7:59:40 AM PDT by 11th Earl of Mar
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To: TheBigB
Obviously Hugh and the CA GOP have rejected conservatism.
6 posted on 09/24/2003 7:59:41 AM PDT by skeeter (Fac ut vivas)
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To: TheBigB
The heading should be the same as the heading on an article, or it should be posted as Vanity, according to my understanding of the rules... I checked the NRO site, and couldn't find it.
7 posted on 09/24/2003 8:00:12 AM PDT by NYC Republican
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To: TheBigB
42 vs. 40 is a statistical deadheat. Its same as tossing a coin. The lead by Arnold is real and would take something really significant to wipe it out. A sunny day could bring out enough Dems to put Bustamante over the edge in a 42-40 race.
8 posted on 09/24/2003 8:02:24 AM PDT by Dave S
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To: TheBigB
Since McClintock is still within the margin of error, I suspect that Mr. Robinson will need more ammo than this in his debate with Mr. Hewitt.
9 posted on 09/24/2003 8:03:10 AM PDT by LenS
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To: TheBigB
"...has just brought to my attention a poll that will interest you."

I would interest me too - just where IS this poll ?

Perhaps it was of Lincoln Club members ?
10 posted on 09/24/2003 8:04:42 AM PDT by RS (nc)
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To: NYC Republican
It's not an article. It's from The Corner, where the writers post opinions and such throughout the day.
11 posted on 09/24/2003 8:04:55 AM PDT by TheBigB ("Liberalism is a philosophy of sniveling brats." --P.J. O'Rourke)
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To: NYC Republican
Isn't there a rule about posting fictitious headings?

I pity the fool, who can't tell fact from fiction.

Here is the link. It's from yesterday.

I'd suggest you learn to keep that thing you eat with closed when not eating as a publ;ic service.

12 posted on 09/24/2003 8:05:11 AM PDT by tallhappy
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To: NYC Republican
"I checked the NRO site, and couldn't find it."

The poll is not there, just a report that a friend of a friend of a friend had heard that such a poll exists.

13 posted on 09/24/2003 8:07:02 AM PDT by RS (nc)
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To: Dave S
A sunny day could bring out enough Dems to put Bustamante over the edge in a 42-40 race.

True, and that's just counting the legitimate votes.

14 posted on 09/24/2003 8:07:23 AM PDT by Charles Martel (Liberals are the crab grass in the lawn of life.)
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To: TheBigB; Admin Moderator
OOPS! I just added this to frontpage news, because it it were true, it probably would be front page news.

BUT it's only a POST/letter to the editor, a response on the web, with unverifiable information, NOT even a legitimate letter to the editor, just a post, that anyone can post.

I could post to the same site that I saw a poll, where Arnold is leading Bustamante by 30 % points, then post it here on FR.

Could you please adjust the location of this, or even pull the thread.

15 posted on 09/24/2003 8:08:19 AM PDT by FairOpinion
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To: tallhappy
I pity the fool, who can't tell fact from fiction. Here is the link. It's from yesterday. I'd suggest you learn to keep that thing you eat with closed when not eating as a publ;ic service.

Hey happy- calm your engines... The title of this post is totally different from the title on the linked news source. It's called "California Crunch". I didn't say the whole thing was fictitious, I certainly didn't imply that he made up the story.

You should ensure that you're right before ripping into someone else and coming across as wrong.

16 posted on 09/24/2003 8:09:44 AM PDT by NYC Republican
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To: tallhappy
Who is the Lincoln Club of Orange County?
17 posted on 09/24/2003 8:10:02 AM PDT by rftc
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To: TheBigB
It's not an article. It's from The Corner, where the writers post opinions and such throughout the day.

I have no problem with that, it's a Blog site, and that's fine. Where I have a problem is when you intentionally change the title to suit your own purpose. That shouldn't be allowed. It's called "California Crunch", bit the title as you portrayed it.

18 posted on 09/24/2003 8:11:38 AM PDT by NYC Republican
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To: FairOpinion; Admin Moderator
I emailed Peter Robinson to ask if he'd post more info about this poll on the site--sample size, etc. I don't know if he'll respond. Pull if you wish, but I did not make this up.
19 posted on 09/24/2003 8:12:06 AM PDT by TheBigB ("Liberalism is a philosophy of sniveling brats." --P.J. O'Rourke)
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To: TheBigB
but I did not make this up.

May I ask, where did you get the title "Poll Says McClintock Could Win 1 On One..."

20 posted on 09/24/2003 8:13:43 AM PDT by NYC Republican
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To: TheBigB
Back when Simon lost the Governor's race. Everyone kept saying if Simon had only energized his base, (us) he would of won. Now everyone, including Hugh, say McClintock can't
win, even if Arnold is not in the race. Well McClintock would definitely energize the base. So wouldn't he win. Which is it boys. And girls.
21 posted on 09/24/2003 8:14:43 AM PDT by Knight Templar
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To: rftc
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/975208/posts
22 posted on 09/24/2003 8:14:54 AM PDT by TheBigB ("Liberalism is a philosophy of sniveling brats." --P.J. O'Rourke)
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To: TheBigB; Tamsey; Tempest; onyx; My2Cents; EggsAckley; Victoria Delsoul; kattracks; PhiKapMom; ...

"C'n you say 'DELUSIONAL'?"

"I knew you could!"

Dan
23 posted on 09/24/2003 8:15:17 AM PDT by BibChr ("...behold, they have rejected the word of the LORD, so what wisdom is in them?" [Jer. 8:9])
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To: TheBigB
Probably it would depend whether Arnold pulled out gracefully, threw his support to McClintock, and campaigned for him.

Frankly, I don't think that's likely. Arnold is the designated spoiler. Parsky sabotaged the last election, and Arnold will sabotage this one. And the party is still trying to clean up the mess Pete Wilson left behind him.
24 posted on 09/24/2003 8:17:55 AM PDT by Cicero (Marcus Tullius)
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To: NYC Republican
Okay, see, follow me closely...down near the end of the post, right just above the words "From the beginning", there are these words... But if Tom McClintock found himself in a head-to-head race against Cruz Bustamante--that is, in effect, if Schwarzenegger dropped out of the race--then McClintock would win, 42 to 40 percent.

I did something called logical thinking. Now, follow me more, If this poll is sound (and I'm not saying it is), then the numbers say that if Arnold were not in the race, that McClintock would be ahead of Cruz 42%-40%. When I used the word "could" in the title, that means that it MIGHT happen...it's within the realm of possibility for McClintock to win.

Does that clear things up?

25 posted on 09/24/2003 8:19:51 AM PDT by TheBigB ("Liberalism is a philosophy of sniveling brats." --P.J. O'Rourke)
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To: BibChr; Cicero
A delusional post is directly below yours.
26 posted on 09/24/2003 8:22:04 AM PDT by onyx
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To: TheBigB
But if Tom McClintock found himself in a head-to-head race against Cruz Bustamante--that is, in effect, if Schwarzenegger dropped out of the race--then McClintock would win, 42 to 40 percent.

This is a complete falsehood. Who are these buffoons?

Our Monday tracking polls show that in a head-to-head, McClintock loses by 12%. The internal Arnold and Bustamante polls shows similar results.

27 posted on 09/24/2003 8:24:07 AM PDT by montag813
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To: TheBigB
Does that clear things up?

OK, I see where you got it, but I thought there were rules against parsing pieces of the story and placing it as the title. You can see how it can easily be manipulated by taking things out of context. Not that you've done that here, but it would set a bad precedent.

28 posted on 09/24/2003 8:25:58 AM PDT by NYC Republican
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To: TheBigB
2003 SurveyUSA Election Polls

.........................
CA Governor Recall
9/23/2003

Remove Davis - 57%
Keep Davis - 42%
Undecided - 1%

Data Collected - 9/19/03 - 9/22/03
Geography - State of California
Universe - 827 Certain Voters
Margin of Error - 3.5%

Client
KABC-TV Los Angeles
KGTV-TV San Diego
KPIX-TV San Francisco
KXTV-TV Sacramento

......................
CA Governor Replacement
9/23/2003

Schwarzenegger (R) - 39%
Bustamante (D) - 32%
McClintock (R) - 18%
Huffington (I) - 4%
Other - 3%
Undecided - 4%
Data Collected - 9/19/03 - 9/22/03
Geography - State of California
Universe - 789 Certain Voters
Margin of Error - 3.6%

Client
KABC-TV Los Angeles
KGTV-TV San Diego
KPIX-TV San Francisco
KXTV-TV Sacramento
29 posted on 09/24/2003 8:27:10 AM PDT by EggsAckley (......................whatever...................)
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To: TheBigB
But if Tom McClintock found himself in a head-to-head race against Cruz Bustamante--that is, in effect, if Schwarzenegger dropped out of the race--then McClintock would win, 42 to 40 percent.

No, no!!! Arnold's a movie star!!! Tom's lips aren't thick enough!!!

30 posted on 09/24/2003 8:27:47 AM PDT by Roscoe
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To: FairOpinion
BUT it's only a POST/letter to the editor, a response on the web, with unverifiable information, NOT even a legitimate letter to the editor, just a post, that anyone can post.

I could post to the same site that I saw a poll, where Arnold is leading Bustamante by 30 % points, then post it here on FR.

Actually, you couldn't, and no, not just anyone could post. It's true, The Corner is a blog, but the only people with access to post there are staff members and contributors to National Review Online.

31 posted on 09/24/2003 8:28:03 AM PDT by BlackRazor
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To: tallhappy
Hugh is the one supporting Arnold.
32 posted on 09/24/2003 8:28:59 AM PDT by TheAngryClam (A proud member of the McClintock Militia)
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To: montag813
Tell us what your tracking polls are saying Thursday & Friday. I'd be curious to see if some of the undecideds start to get off the fence.
33 posted on 09/24/2003 8:30:32 AM PDT by DodgeRam
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To: BlackRazor
So how come we never heard of the poll they are referring to, before?
34 posted on 09/24/2003 8:30:52 AM PDT by FairOpinion
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To: FairOpinion
And by contributors, I mean people who write for the publication. Not those who donate money to them.
35 posted on 09/24/2003 8:31:35 AM PDT by BlackRazor
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To: RS
Then why did the Orange County Lincoln Club endorse Schwarzenegger?
36 posted on 09/24/2003 8:31:39 AM PDT by FairOpinion
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To: FairOpinion
So how come we never heard of the poll they are referring to, before?

Hey, I'm not vouching for the validity of the poll or its methodology. I'd need to see the internals and know something about the organizations that conducted and sponsored it. I'm just pointing out that the information was posted by something more than just some random people.

37 posted on 09/24/2003 8:33:45 AM PDT by BlackRazor
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To: TheBigB
Bet on a 2% margin of victory vs. a 7% margin of victory?

I suspect that even Tom McClintock, with his grasp of the meanings of numbers,
realizes this sounds like an advertizement from a casino.
38 posted on 09/24/2003 8:34:24 AM PDT by VOA
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To: rftc
"Who is the Lincoln Club of Orange County? "

---

It is a group of wealthy,influential conservative Republicans.

They endorsed Schwarzenegger some time ago and called for McClintock to pull out of the race -- quite some time ago, it doesn't tally with the claim of the results of this poll, which was never mentioned anywhere else, nor was any source given in this post.

http://www.lincolnclub.com/history.htm

The Lincoln Club is the largest and most active political club in the United States. Its has shaped California and national politics for almost forty years. Many of southern California's most successful business leaders are among its members.

39 posted on 09/24/2003 8:34:47 AM PDT by FairOpinion
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To: VOA
I'm not in CA, so my opinion is simply that. But I'd enjoy seeing either one win. At this point, Arnold is better positioned...but IF this is a valid poll, maybe there's some momentum gathering for Tom. I don't know. I want to see the numbers after today's debate.
40 posted on 09/24/2003 8:36:25 AM PDT by TheBigB ("Liberalism is a philosophy of sniveling brats." --P.J. O'Rourke)
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To: Roscoe
Tom's lips aren't thick enough!!!

Yeah!!! and he's cross-eyed too!!!

;-)

41 posted on 09/24/2003 8:37:05 AM PDT by SteveH ((Californians for, like, you know, Moon Unit!!!))
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To: FairOpinion
I just added this to frontpage news, because it it were true, it probably would be front page news.

How does a non-moderator move threads to the sidebars?

42 posted on 09/24/2003 8:37:52 AM PDT by jmc813 (Check out the FR Big Brother 4 thread! http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/943368/posts)
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To: All
How many will be rejoicing when this whole Tom vs. Arnold routine is over? Come on...I can't be the only one!
43 posted on 09/24/2003 8:39:14 AM PDT by BonnieJ
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To: TheBigB
HAHAHAH PIPE DREAM! Poll shows a 42-40 percent win for McClintock 1 on 1? Please tell me the margin of ERROR.. guarantee its over 2 percent...

44 posted on 09/24/2003 8:39:43 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: TheBigB
He'd better be darn sure that he can win or he will be political dog#### from now on.


BUMP

45 posted on 09/24/2003 8:39:46 AM PDT by tm22721 (May the UN rest in peace)
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To: BonnieJ
How many will be rejoicing when this whole Tom vs. Arnold routine is over? Come on...I can't be the only one!

Then it'll be just about time to start the whole Specter vs. Toomey devacle which should be equally as entertaining.

46 posted on 09/24/2003 8:40:06 AM PDT by jmc813 (Check out the FR Big Brother 4 thread! http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/943368/posts)
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To: NYC Republican
Does it trouble you that there is a poll showing that a true conservative, Tom McClintock, could beat Bustamante? Shouldn't this please you?

47 posted on 09/24/2003 8:41:52 AM PDT by JCEccles
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To: HamiltonJay
As a later post of mine said, I emailed Peter Robonson to see if he'd post more info about this poll so we could get an idea of the specifics. I'm sure the MOE is over 2%, but if it's 3.5% or better, that would mean Arnold and Cruz could be in a dead heat as well.
48 posted on 09/24/2003 8:41:56 AM PDT by TheBigB ("Liberalism is a philosophy of sniveling brats." --P.J. O'Rourke)
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To: TheBigB
I was only commenting on the statistics involved...not a personal jib to anyone.
After the debate, things will probably clear up considerably.
49 posted on 09/24/2003 8:41:59 AM PDT by VOA
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To: HamiltonJay
Do you have any real reason to dispute the assertion (and its substantiating poll) that a conservative, McClintock, could beat Bustamante? Or is this your bias speaking for you? Do you not want this to be true?
50 posted on 09/24/2003 8:44:00 AM PDT by JCEccles
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