U.S. Senate '04: Four Down, Two More to Go?

HUMAN EVENTS ^ | Sep 23, 2003 | John Gizzi

[Vindiciae Contra TyrannoSCOTUS]

Four of the 34 U.S. Senators up for election next year have announced their exiting--Zell Miller (Ga.), John Edwards (S.C.), and Ernest Hollings (S.C.), Democrats all, and Republican Peter Fitzgerald (Ill.)

Now, signs are ominous that the next two senatorial shoes to drop will be those of Republican Don Nickles (Okla.) and Democrat John Breaux (La.). Word on the D.C. cocktail circuit over the weekend was that four-termer and Senate Budget Committee Chairman Nickles was anxious to make more money in the private sector, as was Breaux (who has been courted for every seven-figure lobbying job from legislative pointman of the Recording Industry Association of America to succeeding Jack Valenti as head of the Motion Picture Association of America).

Democratic Rep. Brad Carson, one of his party's few bright lights in the Sooner State, has signaled he will run for the Senate if Nickles bails. Similarly, Republican Rep. Ernest Istook, stalwart conservative and key Appropriations Committee Member, wants to run, while former Rep. J.C. Watts, the last black Republican in the House, is also being touted for an open Senate seat (although Watts-watchers say that he is thoroughly enjoying his current niche as chairman of Newt Gingrich's old GOPAC and corporate board member). All bets are off on the Republican side if popular former two-term Gov. Frank Keating decides to forego his current job as head of the American Council of Life Insurers and return to the hustings.

Louisiana Democrats insist that Breaux will hold off an announcement until at least November to pump up friend and fellow Democrat, Rep. Chris John, for succession; the near-certain GOP candidate is staunch conservative Rep. David Vitter. Louisiana is the lone Southern State not to have elected a Republican senator since Reconstruction.

[ABG(anybody but Gore)]

It's a common misconception that a black in the primary doesn't turn out the black vote. The last two times it's happened, the black candidates ended up in the runoff. If Brazile did toss her hat in the ring, she's got 30% of the vote automatically. And then, the GOP opponent beats her in the runoff by 65-35. Been there, done that.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"Maybe Cleo will run :)"

---

Nah, that would take votes away from Brazile in the primary. But if Brazile didn't run, we should definitely encourage Cleo to run. "Cleo, this is your year. Louisianans are seeking a progressive voice in the Senate." He would fall for it hook, line and sinker.

In the meantime, we need to encourage another conservative Democrat to run to take votes away from Chris John. Maybe Congressman Alexander from NE LA? If those two run for the Senate, we can pick up two House seats and face Brazile or Cleo Fields in the run-off. Wouldn't that be sweet!

[ken5050]

I remember...it was a questionable story in a Mexican newspaper, right?...well, we can alweays console ourselves by asking Mary if she enjoyes her seat on the Armed Services Committee.....she told us she was gonna be there, right?

[JohnnyZ]

She will win this AG race

I hope so, but then there's no way she turns around and runs for senate in 2004.

[wylenetheconservative]

Which 2 times are you talking about? The only African-American candidate in LA that I can recall in recent years is William Jefferson for Governor, and he was the only Democrat running, so there was no runoff. African Americans don't turn out HEAVILY for primaries because they generally have to be turned out by the party with incentives. Obviously some percentage turns out on their own, but it is a relatively small percentage.

[wylenetheconservative]

I agree. Vitter will do just fine carrying the GOP banner in that race.

[zbigreddogz]

YES YES YES!!!!! NICHOLES IS RETIRING!!!!!!


Look, nothing against the man, but he's old and isn't going anywhere else. Can we PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE get J.C. Watts in there? Oh, oh, oh, I cannot even tell you how happy that would make me.

If not him (sob!) how about Steve Largent? I mean, his loss in the Gov. race was a fluke and everybody knows it. He could be our next Jim Talent, except even better!

[zbigreddogz]

Who's this Herman Cain fellow?

[Lonesome in Massachussets]

Oklahoma's mostly white 4th District. That victory brought him national attention as the first black Republican elected to Congress from a southern state since Reconstruction.

I never considered Oklahoma! to be southern. Western, Mid-western, South-western maybe, but not Southern. And Oklahoma! admitted to the Union in 1906, was certainly not part of the old Confederacy.

[ABG(anybody but Gore)]

You are forgetting the '95 Gubernatorial primary, when Cleo Fields emerged from left field to knock Landrieu and Ieyoub out of the runoff.

[TheBigB]

A VERY impressive conservative black businessman who's running in Georgia. Former CEO of Godfather's Pizza. Look here:

http://www.hermancainforsenate.com/

[JohnnyZ]

Look, nothing against the man, but he's old and isn't going anywhere else.

Nickles? He's only 54, a little over a year older than Istook.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Cleo Fields, who was a Congressman from 1993 until 1997 from a grotesque black-majority district that was decalared unconstitutional and eliminated in mid-decade, made the run-off for Governor in 1995. IIRC, he beat out Mary Landrieu for the second run-off spot by less than 1%, and proceeded to lose big in the run-off to Mike Foster. Landrieu used her fame from the race to run for the Senate the next year, and cheated her way in.

[Theodore R.]

Terrell had been elected statewide -- as elections commissioner in 1999. She had experience running for office. She underestimated the depth of Democrat commitment, I would imagine.

[AuH2ORepublican]

"I never considered Oklahoma! to be southern"

---

IMO, the South is composed of the 11 states in the Old Confederacy plus Kentucky and Oklahoma. This is the definition used by most scholars. The way I see it, if Texas is Southern, then so is Oklahoma.

[AuH2ORepublican]

Who is Herman Cain? Why, the next Senator from Georgia, of course. He's a solid conservative with real-world experience and innovative ideas who just happens to be black. I already sent $20 his way to help out his campaign, and if we all chip in, he will become the National Democrats' worst nightmare.

[Theodore R.]

SE Oklahoma, the Ardmore area, is sometimes called "Little Dixie." That's where the TX Democrats fled to in May.

[Vindiciae Contra TyrannoSCOTUS]

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[Theodore R.]

Nickles turns 54 this year. Istook is just a few younger than he is.

[Theodore R.]

A Democrat sheriff from the New Orleans area is opposing Terrell to succeed Ieyoub as attorney general. She has been leading in the polls, probably because of name recognition.