Posted on 10/01/2003 7:13:42 PM PDT by John Jorsett
I figured it was coming from Mulholland, and I wouldn't be surprised if he is involved. I think there is going to be minor fallout, probably in the female vote. You are likely correct when you point out that people may have already taken into account Schwarzenegger's past as a playboy and "schvingger."
All I would add to that is an exclamation point.
Nam Vet
You are right about that, but the mechanics of the ballot don't allow for it. Once you make your decision on Part I, you don't find Davis anywhere.
On the recall, Davis is toast. Even the LA times, using 47% Democrats in their poll (outrageous!), still had the Yes on Recall at about 56% and the No on Recall at about 42%. In reality, Yes has to be over 60%, and No can't be above 40%. 20% difference is the definition of a "landslide." Davis's (and Bustamante's) core voters will stay home in large numbers. There is a profound psychological effect when you realize you are on the losing end of a rout. It just makes it worse and depresses the vote even more.
The only real question left is, "Who do the wavering conservatives vote for?" It may, in fact, be too late for McClintock to win. But as he said on Hannity today, if those voters who thought he was the best candidate actually voted for him, he would win this thing going away.
I've made that argument on here since the race began, but I think it is too late for that. Too many absentees have already been cast. The margins Tom would need on election day would be astronomical.
You're correct that the recall is a two-parter... but I don't think people would vote to recall Grayout if they didn't feel there was a viable alternative in the offing. Bustamante ain't it, and people think Tom can't win. If Arnold is knocked out with slime attacks, so is the recall. I just don't see the Times piece knocking him out. I'm not sure if it even slows him down... the AP headline on this story reads "L.A. Times: Arnold Misbehaved On Movie Sets"...
The number of absentee ballots requested are up this year, but the number returned by this date are running behind the November 2002 election. Something is afoot.
I was reading the other threads, include the Times and AP stories. The left is so predictable.
Yes. It may seem surprising, but it's easier to spin a withdrawal for some plausible reason than to spin a horrid defeat on election day. Politicians live and die by polls. They know which ones are biased and which ones are real (usually their own private polls). And they know when the political calculus has turned against them in such a way that a humiliating defeat is unavoidable. That's why Issa withdrew, then Simon, then Ueberroth, then Huffington, and now possibly Bustamante. When a politician is under enormous pressure to withdraw, and the polls show he or she doesn't have chance anyway, it makes sense to drop out.
2. That said, I tend not to believe the rumor of Cruz's withdrawal. From his perspective, what purpose would it serve?
The rumors are probably plants from the Davis camp, to try to create a self-fulfilling prophecy. And it might work; the rumors and open backstabbing by Davis are further destroying what's left of Bustamante's campaign. Cruz is under incredible pressure to withdraw, and (as noted above) he might find that preferable to a humiliating third-place finish. Then he could claim that he sacrificed himself for the good of the Democratic party, and that Davis' subsequent defeat was entirely the fault of Gray Davis. Whereas if stays in the race, he becomes the scapegoat for the recall of Davis.
3. But if the report is accurate, where would his voters go? My wild and unsubstantiable guess: 30% of them would vote for him anyway (he'd remain on the ballot); 20% would vote for Arnold; 10% would vote for Tom; 10% would vote for a "fringe" candidate, and 30% would stay home.
That's a very good guess. The important point is that an official "withdrawal" by Bustamante seals his fate. His vote totals will drop to perhaps half of what they would be if he remains in the race. Look at what happened to Simon and Ueberroth when they withdrew. Polls showed that their support, initially in the 4% to 8% region, quickly dropped to asterisk levels. Voters aren't total dummies; a withdrawal is big news, and people don't want to waste their votes on someone who has already quit.
Some people on this thread have suggested that a Bustamante withdrawal would be a "trick" that could lead to his victory. That is absolutely, totally absurd. It is politically impossible. Whatever Bustamante could have hoped to get by staying in, his vote totals will be far, far less if he announces he is dropping out. If he withdraws, he will end up in third place, and he'd only be that high because there is no significant candidate in fourth place to overtake him.
4. A Bustamante withdrawal would particularly depress the Latino vote. I therefore fail to see how such a move could help Davis's cause in the recall.
You're right. But Davis is desperate, desperate, desperate. Remember, his entire life is focussed on climbing the political ladder, and he has succeeded up until now in reaching the penultimate position of California Governor. At one time he harbored serious, realistic ambitions of becoming President. Now all that goes down the drain, and he faces the ignominy of being so despised that the people of California will have recalled him by a landslide margin. He'll need to be put on a suicide watch.
This desperation means that Davis is willing to try anything to hang on to his position of power. One thing he must do is jettison Bustamante, in the faint hope that it will inspire more Democrats to defeat the recall rather than lose the governorship. Another thing he must do is throw dirt at Schwarzenegger (through the Los Angeles Times and other lackeys). Will this backfire? Probably. But what other choice does he have? At this point he's facing certain defeat.
5. Swarzenegger will be the easy winner, irrespective of Bustamante's actions.
Again you are probably right, and I say that as a McClintock supporter. However, a withdrawal by Bustamante catapults Tom into second place. It also shakes lose a lot of conservative votes which had gone to Schwarzenegger for one reason and one reason only: fear of Bustamante. Last minute polls will show Tom's percentage shooting up, and that momentum will itself affect the dynamics. The shovel-fulls of dirt aimed at Arnold will probably backfire, but then again they might gain traction if there is enough proof. Under those circumstances it is not impossible that a final surge could lead to a McClintock victory.
It's not very likely, especially given how many absentee ballots have already been cast for Arnold, but it is a conceivable outcome.
Even if Tom merely comes in a strong second to Arnold, it will solidify Tom's reputation. He will have achieved huge name-recognition, he'll have gotten his message across to the public, and he'll have demonstrated that he is a man of principle who does not give in to pressure. Those Republicans who have spent the past month having fits of hysteria that Tom would cost them the governorship by staying in the race will now be on the defensive, as they try to justify why they failed to back the superior candidate. And if Arnold screws up, Tom and his supporters will be able to say "I told you so".
Then our argument becomes what I've always said it was:
You should be commended for admitting up front that you prefer Arnold to Tom. I suspect the majority of Arnold supporters feel the same way but in order to retain their conservative stripes claim they'd vote for Tom if only he could win.
I'd love to see Bustamante drop out, and those folks held to account for those statements.
What a concept they have. Once the real poll numbers started coming in (the last week or so), and Cruz was losing, some of the long time posters who have been stumping for him got angry because all the posts were about the possibility of the Dems losing. They said it was too discouraging to see their campaigning work go down the drain.
Evidently they complained to the moderators and presto! no more CA recall posts! Ah, the bliss of ignorance.
BTW, I go there to see the wailing, so I'll probably have to wait until next Wednesday..........oh wait! I think they may just go on as though the election didn't happen. Life is easier for them if they don't know they lost.
Huh?
If Bustamante drops out there is no reason to not vote for McClintock. Remember it has always been: "Tom is great, he'd be the best governor but he can't win."
If Bustamante dropped out that would negate that argument.
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