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POSSIBLE CA EXIT POLLS--LEAKED DATA
Calblog ^ | October 7, 2003 | Armed Prophet

Posted on 10/07/2003 2:47:41 PM PDT by publius1

Apparently Leaked Exit Polling Says... Armed Prophet here, with what I believe is a major scoop, though it may not be entirely surprising.

That is, I'm hearing that early exit polling -- which includes absentees -- already shows the recall and Arnold both with "double digit" leads. (I'm a bit surprised to hear that those numbers are already being tabulated, but this is what I'm told.) Speculation is the race may be called within a few hours of the polls closing.

I obviously can't vouch for it myself -- I'm in DC -- but the source I'm hearing this from is very well-connected in state and national politics; if anybody would know this kind of thing out here, it's this person. So take this information with a bit of caution. But if I'm right, you heard it here first.

(Cross-posted -- sort of -- on Armed Prophet.)


TOPICS: Government; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: exitpolls; recall; rumors
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Don't know what to say, except that this is interesting--and wonderful--if correct.
1 posted on 10/07/2003 2:47:41 PM PDT by publius1
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To: publius1
This was just posted in the live thread

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/996586/posts?page=1024#1024

Just got this from a friend with a DC office:

Our DC office just heard these exit polls. Dem politicos are reporting a low voter turn out in the Bay Area so they are thinking its gonna be a blow out.

Davis' exit polls show:

57% yes on recall
43% no on recall
47% Arnold
34% Bustamonte

Take this for what it's worth, but sounds in line with the polling of late.


1,024 posted on 10/07/2003 5:43 PM EDT by ScottinSacto (www.rtumble.com for all the CA political news)
2 posted on 10/07/2003 2:49:05 PM PDT by finnman69 (!)
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3 posted on 10/07/2003 2:49:33 PM PDT by Support Free Republic (Your support keeps Free Republic going strong!)
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To: publius1
Speculation is the race may be called within a few hours of the polls closing.

Except that the first dozen court filings to enjoin the announcement will be filed about 20 deconds after the polls close.

4 posted on 10/07/2003 2:49:58 PM PDT by John Jorsett
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To: John Jorsett
Did you say a senior administration official "leaked" this?
5 posted on 10/07/2003 2:50:51 PM PDT by princess leah
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To: John Jorsett
If its a GOP blowout, the Dems won't bother.
6 posted on 10/07/2003 2:51:17 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: publius1
I think it is best for us to not post exit polling data that we cannot confirm as breaking news. Anyone could make anything up at this point. Just ask Coop.

Thanks, AM

7 posted on 10/07/2003 2:52:03 PM PDT by Admin Moderator
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To: publius1
About an hour ago, I called a business in Westlake Village, CA and asked the guy if he had voted yet.

He said, "Not yet, but all the radio stations are saying that turnout is very light".

Yeah, sure...

8 posted on 10/07/2003 2:52:19 PM PDT by snopercod (All Hail the Saffron King!)
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To: John Jorsett
Except that the first dozen court filings to enjoin the announcement will be filed about 20 deconds after the polls close.

There's already another thread reporting the RATS have a prewritten lawsuit ready to file at 1 am tomorrow morning.

9 posted on 10/07/2003 2:52:20 PM PDT by Timesink
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To: finnman69
These exact numbers were reported on KFI AM within the last hour.

If you'd like to here the local SoCal take on the Recall, go here. Bill Handel from now till 4PM then Jon and Ken till 11PM PST. They are reporting exit poll data.

http://www.kfi640.com/interactive/streaming.html

10 posted on 10/07/2003 2:52:33 PM PDT by Stars N Stripes (He's crying? There's no crying in Glory Holing! Right you are Ken. Let's go to our MXC Impact Replay)
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To: finnman69
San Francisco is a Democrat vote gusher. And if they're staying home in droves there, Arnold should easily pass 50% tonight once L.A reports in. That's before the absentee votes are counted. The fat lady has sung. I believe these exit polls. The numbers sound right.
11 posted on 10/07/2003 2:52:50 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop
Sure they will.

They'll say the 43% who voted against the recall were disenfranchised by the 57% who voted for it.
12 posted on 10/07/2003 2:53:10 PM PDT by Guillermo ( Proud Infidel)
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To: publius1
A rumor that will send rats into a panic to vote and make GOP lazy.
13 posted on 10/07/2003 2:53:10 PM PDT by VRWC_minion (Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and most are right)
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To: publius1
BTTT!
14 posted on 10/07/2003 2:53:55 PM PDT by Salvation (†With God all things are possible.†)
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To: EggsAckley
Ping!
15 posted on 10/07/2003 2:53:55 PM PDT by annyokie (One good thing about being wrong is the joy it brings to others.)
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To: snopercod
He said, "Not yet, but all the radio stations are saying that turnout is very light".

What's he listening to, The Voice of MEChA?

16 posted on 10/07/2003 2:53:55 PM PDT by John Jorsett
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To: finnman69
bump
17 posted on 10/07/2003 2:54:48 PM PDT by rwfromkansas ("Men stumble over the truth, but most pick themselves up as if nothing had happened." Churchill)
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To: princess leah
and I hear that she at one point was sent down to castro street in SF to do something under cover...something about yellow cake ( or was it pink? anywho...)
18 posted on 10/07/2003 2:54:56 PM PDT by CasearianDaoist
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To: VRWC_minion
Makes no difference. No one likes Gray Davis. I have yet to meet a Democrat who would put his skin on the line for him - I don't mean the brainless elites, I mean the party's rank and file. It looks like they just want him gone.
19 posted on 10/07/2003 2:55:01 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop
Don't you wish everyone had felt that way about clinton ?
20 posted on 10/07/2003 2:55:58 PM PDT by VRWC_minion (Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and most are right)
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To: finnman69
34% sounds high for Bustamante. Non-whites candidates for California state office tend to get about 5% less at the ballot box than in the final pre-election polls.

The 65% predicted turnout (borne out by turnout so far) is bad news for Davis. That might be the same percentage as vote to recall him.

My personal prediction on the replacement vote is 40-45% for Schwarzenegger, 25% for Bustamante, 20% for McClintock and 10-15% for the other 140+ candidates combined. Unless the hackers really do crack the system and crank up the vote for Gary Coleman.
21 posted on 10/07/2003 2:56:23 PM PDT by Thud
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To: publius1
I sure hope the voters in Calif. don't get over confident with reports like this. Sounds like a RAT covert plan to get the networks to call the election for Arnold and the recall a win to discourage voters who haven't yet voted for either. Remember the people in northwest Florida who were going to vote for Bush, but didn't go to the polls because the network called the state for Gore. BEWARE,THE RATS ARE EVIL.
22 posted on 10/07/2003 2:57:29 PM PDT by cabbieguy ("I suppose it will all make sense when we grow up")
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To: goldstategop
So how long will it take the Rats to start picking Bay Area voters up in busses and dragging them to the polls?
23 posted on 10/07/2003 2:58:15 PM PDT by SandyInSeattle (Since my Angels and Mariners collapsed.... Go FISH!)
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To: Admin Moderator; Coop
I think it is best for us to not post exit polling data that we cannot confirm as breaking news. Anyone could make anything up at this point. Just ask Coop.

OK, I'm asking you, Coop... what is our dear AM referring to?
24 posted on 10/07/2003 3:00:32 PM PDT by Nataku X
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To: goldstategop
If its a GOP blowout, the Dems won't bother.
I wouldn't count on that. Never put ANYTHING past RATS.
25 posted on 10/07/2003 3:00:43 PM PDT by wjcsux
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To: goldstategop
How many absentee ballots out for SF? Over 3 million statewide...
26 posted on 10/07/2003 3:01:46 PM PDT by tubebender (FReeRepublic...How bad have you got it...)
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To: Guillermo
Bingo!
27 posted on 10/07/2003 3:01:54 PM PDT by My2Cents (Well...there you go again.)
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To: snopercod
When I left for work, the polling place at my townhouse complex (Los Gatos, Silicon Valley suburb) had a line out the door (30 persons +). When I voted at 1 PM. the line was still the same.

I've lived here for 15 years and there has NEVER been a line at the polls.

Turnout will be unbelieveable.
28 posted on 10/07/2003 3:03:59 PM PDT by chriscraft
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To: SandyInSeattle
So how long will it take the Rats to start picking Bay Area voters up in busses and dragging them to the polls?

Or digging them up out of the cemeteries...

29 posted on 10/07/2003 3:07:28 PM PDT by mollynme (cogito, ergo freepum)
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To: chriscraft
Sounds like suburban turnout will be really high and inner city turnout will be depressed. This has all the makings of a massacre for the Democrats.
30 posted on 10/07/2003 3:07:49 PM PDT by Mr. Jeeves
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To: mollynme
I have a feeling their usual "go to the courts to save our bacon" Hail Mary play won't help them this time.
31 posted on 10/07/2003 3:08:43 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: snopercod
I live here in Thousand Oaks... Next door to WLV... The turn out has been amazing. WLV will have more dems than thousand oaks... hang in there it will be a blow out
32 posted on 10/07/2003 3:09:22 PM PDT by Walkingfeather
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To: Mr. Jeeves
A major GOP rout. NONE of the pre-election polls predicted this would happen. If the Democrats can be wiped out in liberal, Democratic California and get buried in a landslide that has major national implications for 2004. Betcha it does.
33 posted on 10/07/2003 3:10:19 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: snopercod
With these exit polls coming out, turnout may very well end up being light. A lot of people may figure, why bother? Hopefully more Dems will do that (like Republicans did after the networks prematurely gave Florida to Gore in 2000.)
34 posted on 10/07/2003 3:10:33 PM PDT by aristeides
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To: Nakatu X
LOL
35 posted on 10/07/2003 3:11:21 PM PDT by Admin Moderator
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To: chriscraft
There are only half as many polling places for this special recall election as there are for a general election. That makes the lines bigger. Throw in the complicated ballot which needs explaining and the lines of waiting voters will be still longer.
36 posted on 10/07/2003 3:11:37 PM PDT by Thud
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To: VRWC_minion
A rumor that will send rats into a panic to vote and make GOP lazy.

Doesn't work that way. People prefer to be on the side of a winner. This news is going to make more Dems stay home.

37 posted on 10/07/2003 3:11:54 PM PDT by aristeides
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To: Mr. Jeeves
A massacre for the Democrats! Sounds good to me.
38 posted on 10/07/2003 3:13:47 PM PDT by mo4bush
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To: aristeides
Exactly. I now think this means Arnold will get at least 52 to 53% on Q2. Its going to be a Tuesday Night Massacre of the Democrats.
39 posted on 10/07/2003 3:13:51 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: finnman69
I mentioned on another thread that I just got a phone call from one of Arnie's top campaign people in Orange County. While she believed the polls earlier this week, she said they were VERY concerned about the unions "bussing people in."
40 posted on 10/07/2003 3:15:31 PM PDT by LS
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To: goldstategop
Don't be too fast. Some places already rumored to have more votes than registered. Guess where it is!!!
41 posted on 10/07/2003 3:15:59 PM PDT by Toidylop
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To: snopercod
My source at Orange County said that the turnout was quite high, and it concerned them that the Dems were bussins people in.
42 posted on 10/07/2003 3:16:09 PM PDT by LS
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To: snopercod
Two ways to look at turnout. The actual voting today may be "light" because so many people voted absentee.
43 posted on 10/07/2003 3:16:25 PM PDT by capitan_refugio
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To: LS
Any one know if the Dems are knock dragging voters to the polls?
44 posted on 10/07/2003 3:16:39 PM PDT by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives On In My Heart Forever)
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To: goldstategop
Question: will this translate into a win for Prop. 54???
45 posted on 10/07/2003 3:16:58 PM PDT by LS
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To: publius1
A lot of people vote on the way home from work (like me) and its still only 3:15 here.
46 posted on 10/07/2003 3:17:14 PM PDT by Trampled by Lambs (...and pecked by the dove...)
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To: publius1
There's nothing wonderful about a liberal governor.
47 posted on 10/07/2003 3:17:26 PM PDT by exmarine
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To: publius1
Just so long as Gray Davis gets his sorry butt recalled. That's the main thing.
48 posted on 10/07/2003 3:17:43 PM PDT by Saundra Duffy (For victory & freedom!!!)
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To: goldstategop
Did you see "Gangs of New York?" Absolutely accurate in how the Dem machine won elections!
49 posted on 10/07/2003 3:17:48 PM PDT by LS
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To: chriscraft
I'm in Los Angeles ... inner city (Hollywood). Very little action at my polling place.
50 posted on 10/07/2003 3:18:21 PM PDT by BunnySlippers (Arnold for Governator! Help Bring California Back!)
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