POSSIBLE CA EXIT POLLS--LEAKED DATA

Calblog ^ | October 7, 2003 | Armed Prophet

[publius1]

Apparently Leaked Exit Polling Says... Armed Prophet here, with what I believe is a major scoop, though it may not be entirely surprising.

That is, I'm hearing that early exit polling -- which includes absentees -- already shows the recall and Arnold both with "double digit" leads. (I'm a bit surprised to hear that those numbers are already being tabulated, but this is what I'm told.) Speculation is the race may be called within a few hours of the polls closing.

I obviously can't vouch for it myself -- I'm in DC -- but the source I'm hearing this from is very well-connected in state and national politics; if anybody would know this kind of thing out here, it's this person. So take this information with a bit of caution. But if I'm right, you heard it here first.

(Cross-posted -- sort of -- on Armed Prophet.)

[Toidylop]

Don't be too fast. Some places already rumored to have more votes than registered. Guess where it is!!!

[LS]

My source at Orange County said that the turnout was quite high, and it concerned them that the Dems were bussins people in.

[capitan_refugio]

Two ways to look at turnout. The actual voting today may be "light" because so many people voted absentee.

[goldstategop]

Any one know if the Dems are knock dragging voters to the polls?

[LS]

Question: will this translate into a win for Prop. 54???

[Trampled by Lambs]

A lot of people vote on the way home from work (like me) and its still only 3:15 here.

[exmarine]

There's nothing wonderful about a liberal governor.

[Saundra Duffy]

Just so long as Gray Davis gets his sorry butt recalled. That's the main thing.

[LS]

Did you see "Gangs of New York?" Absolutely accurate in how the Dem machine won elections!

[BunnySlippers]

I'm in Los Angeles ... inner city (Hollywood). Very little action at my polling place.

[chriscraft]

All the same polling places are open in my area. We also use punchcard machines. No explanations necessary.

Even if other polling places were closed, the actual turnout still far exceeds a 50% increase over the normal amount.

[ambrose]

I don't know why anyone would believe this "I heard from my friend's brother's sister that the recall is winning big in the exit polls"...

Correct me if I am mistaken, I believe that GOP-leaning voters tend to vote in the mornining, and the Rats vote later in the day. Is this accurate?

[aristeides]

I'm in Los Angeles ... inner city (Hollywood). Very little action at my polling place.

Sounds like Prop. 54 could win. Wouldn't that be something?

[goldstategop]

It may go down to defeat. People like the idea but the initiative seems to be poorly worded. If it does Ward Connerly said he'd come out with a tweaked version that CAN pass.

[Lancey Howard]

I mean the party's rank and file. It looks like they just want him gone.

You mean the same pack of scumbag parasites who elected him and reelected him less than two years ago?

[capitan_refugio]

The San Francisco Bay area (San Francisco, Oakland, Berkeley, Sausalito) are heavily Democratic. So is Los Angeles County. "Silcon Valley" is moderate, but sends moderate Republicans to Congress and the State Houses from time to time. Most of the the rest of the State is fairly conservative and solidly Republican.

[Monti Cello]

My polling place in Berkeley was astonishingly empty this morning...

another telling sign: in a town where every third house has a leftist placard in the window, I saw only one recall sign on my walk in this morning...it said, 'Suddenly I love Gray Davis, No on recall'. Even the hardcore left has no zeal for this guy.

I had a huge grin on my face waiting at the poll this morning...I was hoping there'd be a long line, so I could tell the others around me in my thickest Austrian accent, 'I'll be back'

[Poohbah]

Correct me if I am mistaken, I believe that GOP-leaning voters tend to vote in the mornining, and the Rats vote later in the day. Is this accurate?

GOP votes come in the morning and the evening. Dem votes tend to come in during midday. That's because GOP voters tend to W-O-R-K.

[diamondjoe]

The Dems will only be able to hope for success with a lawsuit if Cruz comes within 1-2 pts of Arnold, or if the recall loses (or wins, depending on how you look at it) by the same margin. I think the recall wins with 13-16% and Arnold wins by 11-14%, both huge numbers. They may TRY to file lawsuits, but if they are facing huge margins there's no way they'll be taking seriously by the public or the courts.

[Trampled by Lambs]

"Just so long as Gray Davis gets his sorry butt recalled. That's the main thing."

I disagree. Busta-whatsisname would be far worse than Gray. If it comes to that (not very likely at all), I'd rather keep Davis, drop 5 and punt (wait for 96).