Next pope: 'We are going to be surprised,' says Allen

Tidings ^ | March 4, 2005 | Paula Doyle

[NYer]

As far as the next pope is concerned, expect the unexpected.

That's the message National Catholic Reporter Vatican correspondent John Allen, Jr. stressed in his 2005 Religious Education Congress Feb. 20 workshop, "Four papacies, four futures for the church" highlighting four differing points of view among the 118 Cardinals under age 80 who will elect the future pope.

Although Pope John Paul II has appointed all but three of the cardinals who will elect his successor, Allen said it is a misconception that the next pope will be similar to the current one.

"It doesn't work like that," declared Allen before a rapt audience of hundreds. "Colleges of cardinals appointed entirely by one pope do not elect a reproduction of that pope as his successor."

This is borne out historically. For example, noted Allen, while Pope Pius XII appointed all but two of the 51 cardinals who elected his successor, the next pope elected was the "strikingly" different Pope John XXIII.

"We are going to be surprised by the next pope," said Allen. He remarked that one of the ways cardinals approach the election of the next pope is thinking about both the strengths and the weaknesses of the former pontificate. They'll look at "unfinished business" and consider how they can elect someone who can address pressing concerns. Allen said a majority of cardinals that he has interviewed identify the top three challenges facing the church as: internal church governance, growing secularization and the relationship between Christianity and Islam.

While Pope John Paul II is generally acknowledged as a magnificent evangelist and wonderful source of moral authority, some cardinals feel he has been unable to get his hands around the internal administration of the church "in a fully satisfactory way," Allen explained.

As far as affecting culture in the highly secularized, post-Christian western world, Pope John Paul II's record is viewed as "mixed," in contrast to his many accomplishments championing human rights in Eastern Europe and developing nations. Finally, there is a great sense among church prelates that the next pope is going to have to engage Islam even more than in the past.

"In the post-9/11 world, there is a terrific acknowledgement inside the College of Cardinals that very little is going to be more decisive in terms of where the world goes in the future than whether or not Islam and the Christian west can figure out a kind of 'modus vivendi,'" Allen remarked. Both "tough love" (Hawk) and "harmonious coexistence" (Dove) approaches to the question of Islam exist within the Vatican, noted Allen.

Four futures

Allen identified four groups within the College of Cardinals based on their distinct points of view to current challenges facing the church. While the next pope will likely hail from one of these four parties, "no one party comes close to being a two-thirds majority" necessary to elect a pontiff, said the CNN Vatican analyst.

The first group within the College of Cardinals Allen identified represents the "Border Patrol." The core concern of cardinals in this group is the issue of maintaining Christian identity. Border Patrol cardinals --- including Cardinal Joseph Ratzinger, prefect of the Congregation of the Doctrine of the Faith, Cardinal Edward Egan of New York, Cardinal Justin Rigali of Philadelphia and the Archbishop emeritus of Boston prelate, Cardinal Bernard Law --- fear cultural assimilation and would police religious/secular boundaries "with great vigilance."

The second group, Allen dubbed the "Reform Party." The main concern of cardinals within this party is moving forward with the reforms of Vatican II. They are interested in continuing liturgical reform, collegiality (giving more power to bishops' conferences), promoting the laity's role in the church and ecumenism. Allen named Cardinal Roger Mahony in this group along with Cardinal William Keeler of Baltimore, as well as Cardinal Karl Lehmann and Cardinal Walter Kasper, both of Germany. Allen estimates that the Reform Party and the Border Patrol each represent about 20-25 percent of the electorate.

The third and largest group, according to Allen, encompasses the "Social Justice" contingent, which considers issues outside the church --- such as globalization, economic justice, racial relations and the fight against AIDS --- to be of main concern. Members from this party seek to promote understanding across cultural and ethnic divisions. American Cardinal Ted McCarrick from Washington, D.C., reflects the thinking of this group as well as Cardinal Juan Sandoval from Mexico, Cardinal Claudio Hummes from Brazil, Cardinal Oscar Rodriguez Maradiaga from Honduras, and many other cardinals from developing nations.

The fourth and final group Allen named "Integralists." Members of this "cultural warrior" group want to see the church's teaching on such issues as abortion, gay marriage and stem cell research incorporated into civil law. Integralists would include Cardinal Alfonso Trujillo of Columbia who heads the Pontifical Council for the Family, Cardinal Juan Cipriani from Peru (one of the two Opus Dei cardinals in the world), and Cardinal Angelo Scola from Venice. Representatives in the American hierarchy would be Archbishop Ray Burke of St. Louis and Archbishop Charles Chaput in Denver.

Since no one group has the necessary majority to sway the vote, Allen believes it's plausible that members of different parties will form "alliances." It's conceivable, Allen explained, that members of the social justice and reform parties could align as well as representatives from the border patrol and integralists. "I don't think you're going to get a pure representative of any one of these four camps as your pope; inevitably, it's going to be a compromise," declared Allen.

According to Allen, it's unlikely that eligible members of the College of Cardinals will elect somebody presently working in Rome, such as Nigerian-born Cardinal Francis Arinze, prefect of the Congregation of Divine Worship and the Discipline of the Sacraments. It will probably be a candidate outside of the Vatican who is acceptable to two or more groups.

"The story of the next election is being written right now," declared Allen. "You have an opportunity to be involved in this conversation." He urged Catholics to "engage" themselves by communicating with cardinals who will be electing the next pope.

[NYer]

He who goes in pope, emerges Cardinal. (author unknown)

God willing, we won't be witnessing this for many years to come. The author, however, brings some good insight into the composition of the present College of Cardinals.

[Condor51]

"It will probably be a candidate outside of the Vatican who is acceptable to two or more groups."

Oh cr@P! The next pope will be a muslim.

The above is obvious SARCASM. No offense is meant

[Desdemona]

I'm not sure I'd trust John Allen on this. He's got some strange bedfellows in that first group. Cardinal Egan is the one I question, for many reasons. He's not a traditionalist at all.

[AnAmericanMother]

It bothers me that folks are already heaping earth on the Holy Father's coffin when (in my daddy's phrase) he ain't even dead yet . . .

Sorry, it's ghoulish -- like talking in front of your grandmother about what she may leave you in her will. There will be plenty of opportunity for speculation when the time comes.

[NYer]

Allen said a majority of cardinals that he has interviewed identify the top three challenges facing the church as: internal church governance, growing secularization and the relationship between Christianity and Islam.

His Beatitude Mar Nasrallah Boutros Cardinal Sfeir,
Maronite Patriarch of Antioch and all the East

Now this man has an established track record of diplomacy with regard to Islam AND would be a surprise! President Bush has invited him to a private meeting at the White House, next week.

His age unfortunately rules out this possibility. He is 85.

[sitetest]

Dear NYer,

There is no age limit on who may be elected pope.

Neither must he be a cardinal at the time of election.

Or a bishop.

Or a priest.

To be pope, one must be a baptized male Catholic.

At the time of election, if one is not already a bishop, one is immediately consecrated a bishop.


sitetest

[HuntsvilleTxVeteran]

How long before a reality TV show?

[Allegra]

Expect the unexpected?

It's going to be Michael Jackson??

Isn't it a little early to be talking about the next Pope? Our current one is still with us....

[Dominick]

New this fall:

Survivor: Vatican City.

Who is going to ve voted out of the Conclave?

(OW stop hitting me OW OW OW)

[TheGeezer]

I pray you are right.

[Salvation]

To read later.

[VermiciousKnid]

I'm not sure what I would do if Eagan, or Mahony, or Law was elected the next Pontiff.

And I don't even like THINKING about it.

Regards,

[dcnd9]

Sad to say Vegas is already Betting on...
"Who will be the next Pope?"
http://www.online-betting-guide.co.uk/Next-Pope.htm

[AnAmericanMother]

To be pope, one must be a baptized male Catholic.

At the time of election, if one is not already a bishop, one is immediately consecrated a bishop.

When was the last time this happened?

[sitetest]

Dear AnAmericanMother,

"When was the last time this happened?"

Gregory XVI. Here is some information on him from www.catholic-hierarchy.org:

Bartolomeo Alberto (Mauro) Cappellari, O.S.B. 1765 - 1846. Pope 1831- 1846.

8 Sep 1765 Born Belluno
1786 Professed Brother of Order of Saint Benedict
1787 Ordained Priest Priest of Order of Saint Benedict
21 Mar 1825 Elevated to Cardinal In Pectore
13 Mar 1826 Elevated to Cardinal
13 Mar 1826 Appointed Cardinal-Priest of S. Callisto
1 Oct 1826 Appointed Prefect of Propagation of the Faith, for, Roman Curia
2 Feb 1831 Appointed Pope (Roma {Rome}, Italy)
6 Feb 1831 Ordained Bishop Pope (Roma {Rome}, Italy)
1 Jun 1846 Died (Roma {Rome}, Italy)

Interestingly, though he wasn't a bishop, he was a cardinal. He'd refused being appointed bishop twice, from what I've read.


sitetest

[broadsword]

If not Mahoney, how about sinkspur? LOL! He would be a grate Pope!

[broadsword]

And, yes, I know the difference between great and grate.

[sitetest]

Dear AnAmericanMother,

A few more:

Pope Pius VI: Giovanni Angelico Braschi. Born 1717, ordained 1755, created cardinal 1773, elected pope, 1775, at which point, he was also consecrated a bishop, died 1799.

Clement XIV: Lorenzo (Giovanni Vincenzo Antonio) Ganganelli, O.F.M. Conv. Born 1705, professed brother 1724, created cardinal 1759, elected pope 1769, died 1774.

Pope Clement XIV was a Franciscan brother and a cardinal at the time of his election, but as far as I can tell, not an ordained priest, and thus, not a bishop.

Pope Clement XI was not a bishop, and he'd been ordained a priest about 2 months prior to becoming pope, although he'd been a cardinal for some years.


sitetest

[Dog Gone]

The third and largest group, according to Allen, encompasses the "Social Justice" contingent,

And that's a problem.

[AnAmericanMother]

In those days, the cardinal's hat was a political office as much as (if not more so than) an ecclesiastical one.

Probably wouldn't happen nowadays . . .

[sitetest]

Dear AnAmericanMother,

Well, the government of the Church was more of a temporal concern then, too. The office of the papacy, itself, was more directly involved in temporal affairs, up to, I guess, the demise of the Papal States.


sitetest

[Do not dub me shapka broham]

I tend to agree.

Egan doesn't strike me as being in the "traditionalist" mold, even by way of comparison to his predecessor in that post, John Cardinal O'Connor.

Perhaps by traditionalist, the author means to imply that he's more of a bureaucrat than an agent for change.

Regardless, I think that choosing someone like him-or God forbid, Roger Mahoney-would be a disastrous decision on the part of the College of Cardinals.

[Theophane]

From reading Allen, and, even more specifically, Sandro Magister, I wouldn't be surprised to see Cardinal Jorge Mario Bergoglio, SJ, of Buenos Aires elected.

He might even be a little bit of each of the camps.

I would watch him.

[AnAmericanMother]

Exactly. In those days, Stalin would have received a different answer to his rhetorical question.

[sharktrager]

That ain't Vegas. That's from the UK, and the odds are all quoted from an Irish bookmaker.

[dcnd9]

I meantioned 'Vegas' in jest for rhetorical impact.

[ImaGraftedBranch]

This guy is a total idiot. They don't need to be. After two weeks, a simple majority rules, so all they have to do is sit tight and they can pick who they want. Filibusters? Feh. Fergeddaboudit.

Er, actually, JPII has changed the rules. Simple majority from the first vote.

[AAABEST]

Should I add you to my traditional ping list?

[Domestic Church]

""When was the last time this happened?"

Gregory XVI. Here is some information on him from www.catholic-hierarchy.org:

Bartolomeo Alberto (Mauro) Cappellari, O.S.B. "


O.S.B. !!!!!!!

[Domestic Church]

Pondering a jaw dropping Mahoney Papacy...and the schism it might trigger....will have me twitching in my sleep!

[RightWhale]

To be pope, one must be a baptized male Catholic

Sounds like a formality to be taken care of in a minute.

[Domestic Church]

"JPII has changed the rules. Simple majority from the first vote"

Oh my I forgot about that! This does rachet up the possibility of a real amchurch personality.

[VermiciousKnid]

I don't think there's any "might" about it. Mahony's election would be a scismatic disaster for the Church.

Regards,

[NeoCaveman]

Regardless, I think that choosing someone like him-or God forbid, Roger Mahoney-would be a disastrous decision on the part of the College of Cardinals.

Old Raj Mahony in Peter's Chair would be a sure sign of the Apocalypse.

[Polybius]

There is no age limit on who may be elected pope. Neither must he be a cardinal at the time of election. Or a bishop. Or a priest. To be pope, one must be a baptized male Catholic.

I didn't know that.

If I'm elected, can I keep my wife. :-)

[Tantumergo]

"'We are going to be surprised,' says Allen"

No surprise - its already being stitched up for Walter Kasper. He's even faking some of the right noises to sucker in the "Border Patrol" party.

(Providing, of course, that JPII doesn't outlive all of them!)

[TradicalRC]

You mean...I could be the NEXT Pope?!

[sitetest]

Dear Polybius,

"If I'm elected, can I keep my wife. :-)"

Yes.

Once you're pope, you da' man.


sitetest

[sitetest]

Dear TradicalRC,

"You mean...I could be the NEXT Pope?!"

Yes, but you might have to do some arm-twisting with the Holy Spirit. ;-)


sitetest

[murphE]

Yes, it is considered bad form, yet it is still widely done. I am guilty too.

[Canticle_of_Deborah]

No surprise - its already being stitched up for Walter Kasper.

Are you serious? He is just as bad as Mahony, maybe worse.

[TotusTuus]

Yes, but you might have to do some arm-twisting with the Holy Spirit. ;-)

Last time this issue came up, we ended up with Pope Piel I.

TradicalRC, think you can hold your own armgrappling with a Louisiana man?

[murphE]

My pick:

Guess who. No cheating.

[sitetest]

Dear TotusTuus,

The late PPI had a permanent impediment - he wasn't Catholic.


sitetest