“They” is the bookmakers, not the Vatican. I’d be surprised if it was any one of these.
BXVI has appointed a number of new cardinals (from everywhere), so that the majority by the time of picking the new Pope will probably be pretty conservative. Beyond that, I don’t know.
I do think it may be an English-speaker, but that could be anybody from a Brit to an American to an African to an Indian. I don’t think it will be an Italian, no matter what.
I think these people ought to shut-up. I remain praying our beloved Pope Benedict XVI lives 120 happy, healthy years.