How Many Christians in China
http://www.billionbibles.org/china/how-many-christians-in-china.html
The lack of credible statistics on how many Christians are in China today have led to estimate that vary widely.
At one end, some Bible organizations claim that there are as many as 200 million Christians in China already, not without the hope of encouraging continued flow of support for their many programs for aiding the Christians in China.
At the other end, the Chinese Communist Party most recently reported 18 million as the number of baptized Christians in China’s Three Self churches in 2004.
To conservatively estimate how many Christians are in China today, let’s start with the 18 million figure (the number of baptized Three Self church Christians in 2004).
2013 - 2004 = 9 years. Applying a conservative annual growth rate of 5% over the past 9 years brings the 2004 figure to 28 million baptized Christians in China’s Three Self Churches as of 2013.
This 28 million figure excludes the Christian children of the baptized Three Self church Christians because the Chinese Communist Party forbids baptism until 18 years of age. Using a conservative ratio of 1 Christian child under 18 years of age for every 5 baptized adults takes the current number of Three Self Church Christians to 34 million (28 million + 20%).
Estimates on the ratio of underground house church Christians to Three Self church Christians generally range from 3 to 5. Using the in-between ratio of 4 results in a figure of 136 million (34 million x 4) house church Christians.
136 million (house church) + 34 million (Three Self church) = 170 million. But this figure double counts about a third (approximately 11 million) of the Three Self church Christians who also attend house churches during the week. Subtracting 11 million from the total brings us to approximately 159 million* Christians in China as of 2013.
This figure is corroborated by Xiaowen Ye, head of the Communist Party’s State Administration of Religious Affairs, who reported at a 2006 closed door meeting at Peking University in 2006 that the Protestants in China numbered 110 million.
2013 - 2006 = 7 years. Applying the same conservative annual growth rate of 5% (110 million x 1.05) over those 7 years results in 155 million*, just shy of the 159 million figure above, as the number of Christians in China as of 2013.
155 to 159 million* is both a large and a small number. There are now more Christians in China than in the United States, but this number still represent only about 11% of China’s 1.4 billion people. As large as the Lord’s harvest is in China, it has only just begun.
To be conservative about it, let’s say 10% of the population is openly or secretly Christian (did your numbers count the Catholics who are also sanctioned, but not part of TSP?).
What will the number look like in 2030?
There are now more Christians in China than in the United States
This is from the
PEW RESEARCH ON RELIGION AND PUBLIC LIFE religious landscape survey in America
If the above survey is to be believed, about 78% of Americans are Christian (I do not want to get into an argument about what one constitutes as a Christian cult, so I am simply using the Pew definition. Feel free to subtract from the 78% number if you wish).
If our population is 315 Million as per latest survey, that's over 240 Million people who identify as Christians right there. Still a larger number than China IMHO.