Ron Paul Will Place Second at Ames

Townhall.com ^ | 7/18/07 | Patrick Ruffini

[George W. Bush]

Ron Paul Will Place Second at Ames

Posted by: Patrick Ruffini at 1:48 AM

You heard it here first.

He leads the second tier in cash-on-hand. He was able to get 1,200 people out to the Hy-Vee (has any candidate done something that big on their own, not at an RPI event?). His home base in Texas isn’t that far of a drive, and his people are motivated enough to come in from out of state for him. And he’s making a big push on his Web site, which for all intents and purposes, is his campaign.

Romney, given his dominant position organizationally in Iowa, should still win. Even with the rest of the top tier not participating, he won’t be able to let his guard down, lest he be ambushed by one of the second tier. Should Romney underperform against someone not even playing at Ames, or against someone not taken seriously, that’s a blow to his Iowa inevitability.

Does Paul placing a close second make the straw poll and its winner into a laughingstock? Do benched McCain or Giuliani supporters direct people to vote for Paul to ensure that outcome? Or does this portend something bigger? I see that Ron Paul is up to 3% in the Gallup poll, above Huckabee and Brownback. He won’t come close to winning, but can he aggregate whatever Bilderburger and Trilateral Commission-phobic votes there are in his corner, in the same way that Lyndon LaRouche could get 15% in a Democratic primary against Bill Clinton?

And what’s happened to Huckabee and Brownback? Conn Carroll and I got into a lengthy “What about Huckabee?” discussion on BloggingHeads.tv. Intellectually, the Huckabee campaign seemed to make sense in the context of the standard playbook of GOP campaigns. With no Country-Western candidates and no authentic pro-lifers in the race, and with his personal connection to the pastors, he has/had a chance to break out in Iowa. Where this theory breaks down is that the interest groups may not matter so much in GOP politics anymore. What matters is going to your base directly, which only Fred Thompson, Ron Paul, and maybe Mitt Romney are doing. Can Huckabee or Brownback be carried by the church lists, or is the drawn out calendar and the Internet helping Evangelicals to make their own independent assessments (which is why Rudy isn’t getting killed, BTW)?

[George W. Bush]

Recent polling indicates a majority of Iowa Republican caucus-goers are firmly antiwar.

Don't be surprised if Ron Paul beats even the Romney Machine in Iowa. It's possible.

[George W. Bush]

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[longtermmemmory]

win lose or draw the IOWA straw poll is electorally irrelevant.

[George W. Bush]

Try telling that to McStain and Giuliani who plan to try to stiff them now and again in January.

[CJ Wolf]

Ron Paul is an authentic pro-lifer. He is also a cowboy that calls his home Texas. Maybe that’s why he will win.

Townhall is predicting this. Just wow.

[CJ Wolf]

In before the Lomad paul bomber.

[JohnBovenmyer]

The straw poll is only for Iowa residents. Texans can’t vote.

[mvpel]

With no Country-Western candidates and no authentic pro-lifers in the race, ...

Ron Paul, an obstetrician, is pro-life, is the assertion that he is not "authentically" pro-life?

[traderrob6]

Just shows how irrelevant Iowa really is.

[Perdogg]

Just Like Ron “Herff Applewhite” Paul.

[roses of sharon]

http://www.infowars.com/articles/us/ron_paul_no_doubting_warning_of_staged_provocation.htm

Was Alex Jones on RP ticket’s for the poll?

Maybe the good people of Iowa should inform themselves more fully.

[Eric Blair 2084]

To the FReepers in attendance and the millions watching around the world on Pay Per View…Ladies and Gentleman...

LLLLLLLets Get Ready to RRRumblllllllle!!!!

“LET'S GET READY TO RUMBLE!"® is a registered Trademark of Michael Buffer, all rights reserved.

1,500,000,000 rounds of posts, arguments, insults, cheesy graphics, name calling, and ad hominem personal attacks that pass as debate for the FUTURE OF THE REPUBLICAN PARTY!

"Introducing first, to my right, fighting out of the red corner, wearing their Sunday best with a gold crucifix...weighing in at 810 and 1/4 pounds...the social conservatives, the religious right, the champions of family values...from the Southern States...The Evangelicals!" (wild applause)

"And in the blue corner, wearing an off the rack suit, Goldwater ’64 lapel pin and a belt 2 sizes too small...weighing in at 141 pounds soaking wet...the fiscal conservatives, the last champions of limited government...from the Western States...The Libertarians!" (wild applause)

Chapter 1: Live From the Reagan Building

[NeoCaveman]

Recent polling indicates a majority of Iowa Republican caucus-goers are firmly antiwar.

Yeeks. I guess it's time to start getting ready for Madame President in 2009.

[rightwingintelligentsia]

In 1988, Pat Robertson came in second in the Iowa caucuses. In 1996, Pat Buchanan did. Just sayin’.

[Petronski]

Bluto: Wormer, he’s a dead man! Marmalard, dead! Niedermeyer...
Otter: Dead! Bluto’s right. Psychotic, but absolutely right. We gotta take these bastards. . . . No, I think we have to go all out. I think that this situation absolutely requires a really futile and stupid gesture be done on somebody’s part.
Bluto: We’re just the guys to do it.
D-Day: Let’s do it.
Bluto: LET’S GO TO AMES!!!

[from occupied ga]

Romney Machine in Iowa.

The anti-Paul forces try to concentrate on his anti-war stance because they sense that is where RP is most vulnerable. But since the other republican candidates are just slightly fuzzy clones of Hillary and Osama bin Obama maybe someone is catching on to that.

[wideawake]

Maybe that’s why he will win. Townhall is predicting this. Just wow.

Townhall is not predicting a Ron Paul win.

They are predicting that due to the absence in IA of other first-tier GOP candidates besides Romney, Ron Paul may garner a larger chunk of the votes than his national poll numbers indicate - a la Lyndon LaRouche vs. Clinton in 1992.

[George W. Bush]

Oh, man, I gotta steal that pic for our PhotoBucket gallery!

Here's my old favorite.

[marsh_of_mists]

Why do I get the sense that some people on this forum are going to be saying how unelectable Paul is well into his second term? Or will that just mean that the American electorate is “irrelevant”?

[Liberty Valance]

*

[ksen]

Just shows how irrelevant Iowa really is.

Right, which is why Romney is doing his best to try and win it.

[samtheman]

What matters is going to your base directly, which only Fred Thompson, Ron Paul, and maybe Mitt Romney are doing.

What's wrong with this sentence? It assumes that these three all have the same "base"? I know they all want the same base, but they don't all have the same base.

Ron Paul's base is the Libertarians. As such, he's doomed to a low percentage of the vote. I thank him for keeping that vote in the Republican Party and hope that he loses with grace and doesn't go 3rd party in the general.

Romney's base is the same as JulieAnnie's, the same as GHWBush... what used to be called "Rockerfeller Republicans". He's not picking up the hard-core conservative Republican base, and he's not about to.

That leaves Fred. His base awaits him. Run, Fred, run.

[George W. Bush]

They are predicting that due to the absence in IA of other first-tier GOP candidates besides Romney, Ron Paul may garner a larger chunk of the votes than his national poll numbers indicate - a la Lyndon LaRouche vs. Clinton in 1992.

Actually, they're guarding against a win in IA by Ron Paul by prepping us for the argument that it must have been McStain and Giuiliani supporters who turned out to support RP in order to make Iowa completely irrelevant.

That'll backfire.

[Paperdoll]

Except for his stand on pulling our troops out of Iraq right away, I don’t disagree with much of what Ron Paul says. I’d be more likely to vote for him in the general than I would many other Republican candidates and those
still thinking about it.

He does recognize the dangers inherent with globalism, and the Council on Foreign Relations’ goals for this nation.
That is a definite biggy for me.

[TexasAg1996]

Why do I get the sense that some people on this forum are going to be saying how unelectable Paul is well into his second term?

Talk about delusional. No poll I've seen has RP beating any front-tier Republican or Democrat. RP polls around 3% among Republicans (which falls within the margin of error of 0%). Don't let the on-line polls that you folks spam after the debates (and any other chance you get) fool you.

[wideawake]

Actually, they're guarding against a win in IA by Ron Paul

Again the article does not contemplate a scenario in which Ron Paul wins in IA.

It contemplates a scenario in which Romney does worse than anticipated and Ron Paul gets better numbers than his national poll numbers indicate - and also anticipates that Romney's campaign will claim that this is due to Giuliani and McCain affiliated vote spoilers.

This is the same stuff that the Clinton campaign said in IA when La Rouche won 15%.

[traderrob6]

“Right, which is why Romney is doing his best to try and win it.”

At 10% nationwide he has little choice but to put everything he’s got into it regardless of it’s importance.

[Clara Lou]

...heh-heh....heh...heh-heh!.....~giggle~.........*snort* ....Bwahahahahahahaha!

[Old_Mil]

I clicked through your link to the Sager book...it's compelling reading to be sure, and the first 8 pages of the first chapter are a good history lesson for anyone who is a conservative. However, with the following statement:

Today, no longer bound together by the Cold War or opposition to Bill Clinton and having tasted power at the small price of bending their beliefs, the two sides are fighting over nothing less than whether the Republican Party will complete its abandonment of the very principle upon which their fusionist marriage has been based these many years: a commitment to limited government. Will social conservatives continue to accept federally funded “character education” in lieu of education reforms that would let parents choose their children’s schools?

the author's entire argument falls apart. For it is not the Christian conservatives who have become enamored with Federal power - it is the "libertarians" who have become enamored with a liberal society. In fact, the only reason I suspect every Rudy Giuliani and Ron Paul supporter in the house doesn't bolt to the Democrats overnight is a desire for low personal income taxes.

[George W. Bush]

Again the article does not contemplate a scenario in which Ron Paul wins in IA.

article: "Romney, given his dominant position organizationally in Iowa, should still win."

Yes, they are hedging their bet. And only Ron Paul is in position to challenge him.

[George W. Bush]

The anti-Paul forces try to concentrate on his anti-war stance because they sense that is where RP is most vulnerable.

Shhhh...don't let them know that that is Ron Paul's fatal Achilles Heel. Oh, darn, did I type that right out in the open? Oh, darn, now they'll attack him again! Darn me, darn me, darn me.

[Ultra Sonic 007]

But since the other republican candidates are just slightly fuzzy clones of Hillary and Osama bin Obama maybe someone is catching on to that.

???

You lost me.

[George W. Bush]

...heh-heh....heh...heh-heh!.....~giggle~.........*snort* ....Bwahahahahahahaha!

Thank you, thank you. We'll be here all week. And try the fish!

[billbears]

Sort of interesting really. For months it was 'spammers' and a 'gadfly'. Now Dr. Paul is starting to show up in some interesting places and some interesting polls. Of course now these polls, which have counted for more years than I've been alive, aren't important to the faithful anymore. Why? Have the polls lost some relevance? Course they haven't. But the chosen candidates may not do well so it's unimportant. Example the Pajamas Media poll. It was the online poll for conservatives..until Ron Paul started winning, then it was full of spammers. It had to be because one of the 'right' guys wasn't winning it. It couldn't be the message is no longer popular with more people than they think. Old school conservatives no longer supporting police actions and out of control spending?!? Perish the thought. Course we'll see what's what after the Ames poll. Although I really do want Dr. Paul to do well if only to see Hannity's face turn pale white on air

I imagine if the man won more than a few primaries all the sudden the primaries wouldn't be important to the faithful. Reminiscent of a whiny kid refusing to play ball because things aren't going his way anymore

[pissant]

Lost you? He drove off a cliff.

[wideawake]

article: "Romney, given his dominant position organizationally in Iowa, should still win."

Indeed.

And only Ron Paul is in position to challenge him.

Actually, Ron Paul is the only other candidate making a serious effort there.

[ksen]

At 10% nationwide he has little choice but to put everything he’s got into it regardless of it’s importance.

Then it must not really be as irrelevant as you tried to imply. Otherwise it would be stupid of Romney to waste his time on it.

[traderrob6]

It’s his ONLY hope, I didn’t say it was a valid one.

[Calvinist_Dark_Lord]

Ron Paul is an authentic pro-lifer. He is also a cowboy that calls his home Texas. Maybe that’s why he will win.

Not correct.

Ron Paul lives in and Represents Texas, but in fact, he's a 'yinzer', from Pittsburgh.

That's something that makes me proud, and you're right, we're more cowboy than are a lot of cowboys, especially that #@%#$# Dallas variety ;^p

He can win.

[A CA Guy]

"Don't be surprised if Ron Paul beats even the Romney Machine in Iowa. It's possible. "

What a bad reflection on the voters of Iowa that would be!

[A_Tradition_Continues]

Straw polls remind me of the small town beauty contestants trying to sell the most tickets to the “town potluck dinner.”

[A CA Guy]

I see that Ron Paul is up to 3% in the Gallup poll

Wow, so 97% reject this man as their choice, that is indeed news.

[lormand]

[lormand]

[CJ Wolf]

Hey you corrected it. Thanks.

Here is another FR post on how a Letter of Marque would work.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/546659/posts

[West Coast Conservative]

[lormand]

"Ron Paul lives in and Represents Texas.

Wrong on the second part.

He represents only 1/52 of Texas. My Texas Congressman is John Carter and is a rock-solid Conservative. We are very proud of him here. You northerners can have Ron Paul back.

[lormand]

Sorry CJ Wolf, but WCC has trumped me on my graphics.

Excellent work WCC!

[lormand]

The Noam Chomsky book is the icing on the cake. LOL!

[West Coast Conservative]

It’s a funny pic but it’s not my work. Another FReeper did it but I can’t recall who.