RealClear Politics now has CNN/USAT/GALLUP added in

RealClear Politics ^ | Oct. 17, 2004

[blogblogginaway]

Poll Date Bush/ Cheney Kerry/ Edwards Nader/ Camejo Spread RCP Average 10/13 - 10/16 49.0% 45.2% 1.5% Bush +3.8

[blogblogginaway]

Bush average lead is now 3.8

[EggsAckley]

[FairOpinion]

I love that Kerry nosedive! :)

[BCrago66]

That new data makes the RealClearPolitics graph look real pretty:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html

[zarf]

We're getting setuup for the final "Kerry Surge".

[Porterville]

What will Oprah say? What will P-Diddy say? What will Drew say? What will happen to Cameron Diaz (she almost cried on Oprah)?

[nbenyo]

I just saw Wolf interviewing Nader and they displayed a chart of state results... I just caught Florida with Bush up 49.3 to 45.8. Did anyone see the other states? Was this a subset of the national poll?

[Petronski]

That graph is making me a little verklempt!

Talk amongst yourselves...here's a topic: "Wonder Bread" is neither a wonder nor bread. Discuss.

[DuckFan4ever]

Yeah, but the numbers make me nervous. Bush had 294 electoral votes in his column, now that Wisconsin has been put back in the tossup, he's down to 254. I hope Ohio, Florida, and Wisconsin get back in the fold. I couldn't care less about the popular vote then.

[DefCon]

And they put Wisconsin back in the "too close to call" category.

[BCrago66]

Here's the details on the Gallup poll:

http://www.gallup.com/election2004/

[CatOwner]

We're getting setuup for the final "Kerry Surge".

Artificial rampup in the last couple of weeks. My guess is this is the only way the MSM can keep this election from completely turning to Bush.

[jmc1969]

The state polls are lagging indicators, they lag by about 5-9 days behind the national for whatever reason.

[Reagan Man]

It would appear the post debate polls are beginning to focus more on who Americans will actually be voting for on election day. This must have the Kerry campaign real worried and shows why they've become so desperate. In raising the issue of Dick Cheney's lesbian daughter Mary, to the draft issue and onto the flu vaccine issue, the Kerry campaign is trying to scare people into voting for them. I've got news for the Kerry and company. Your scare tactics won't work.

[Gunder]

hehehe

[Gunder]

Cameron Diaz cried on Oprah? I didn't see it, but was that when she said "rape" was on the ballot??

[Paulus Invictus]

On Zog's website, he has a poll that shows Kerry winning the Electoral vote by a lot. How can that possibly relate to the polls we see here?

[BenLurkin]

Looks about right. Unless the DNC can give new legs to their October Surprise . . .

[THX 1138]

Excellent analysis! We've all suspected that the polls have been gamed from the beginning, and this proves it...

[MNJohnnie]

Bush average lead is now 3.8


and it gets worse. That number includes the faudulent AP poll showing Kerry up 4 points for from the first week of Oct. Factor that ONE poll out and Kerry drops like a stone.

STILL, we got to get every possble Bush voter to the polls to offset the voter fraud

[orangelobster]

Don't get overexcited. You can figure in at least 2 percentage points going to the Kerry campaign in additional fraudulent votes. Don't get complacent.

[okstate]

SNL has fallen so much from the early '90s

[AQGeiger]

Even Zogby's own polls show the Presidet ahead in the popular vote. That doesn't make sense.

[zr2hammer]

The Iowa Electronic poll showed about a 3-4 point spread (in favor of Bush) in 2000 on Nov 2...and it came out basically even. We're at that spread now. A little more and I'll be very happy.

[MEG33]

CNN/USAT/Gallup (793 LV) 10/9 - 10/10 48% 49% 1% Kerry +1

That's quite a change...NO COMPLACENCY!

[miltonim]

No internet?

[MEG33]

This is a puzzle..

[aft_lizard]

Actually it doesnt count the AP poll with Kerry up 4,. If you notice on the break down the drop off is friday the 15th.

 

                      

RealClearPolitics Poll Average^SM
3-Way Race: Bush/Cheney vs Kerry/Edwards vs Nader/Camejo
Send This Page to a Friend | Graph: RCP Historical Poll Average

Poll	Date	Bush/ Cheney	Kerry/ Edwards	Nader/ Camejo	Spread
RCP Average	10/13 - 10/16	49.0%	45.2%	1.5%	Bush +3.8
CNN/USAT/Gallup (788 LV)	10/14 - 10/16	52%	44%	1%	Bush +8
Zogby (1211 LV)	10/14 - 10/16	46%	44%	1%	Bush +2
TIPP (786 LV)	10/13 - 10/16	48%	45%	2%	Bush +3
Time (865 LV w/leaners)	10/14 - 10/15	48%	47%	3%	Bush +1
Newsweek (LV)	10/14 - 10/15	50%	44%	1%	Bush +6
ABC/Wash Post (1203 LV)*	10/13 - 10/15	50%	47%	1%	Bush +3
CBS News (760 LV)	10/9 - 10/11	48%	45%	2%	Bush +3
ICR (763 LV)	10/9 - 10/11	48%	43%	2%	Bush +5
CNN/USAT/Gallup (793 LV)	10/9 - 10/10	48%	49%	1%	Kerry +1
Time (886 LV w/leaners)	10/6 - 10/7	46%	45%	4%	Bush +1
GW/Battleground (1250 LV)	10/3 - 10/7	49%	46%	0%	Bush +3
AP/Ipsos (944 LV)***	10/4 - 10/6	46%	50%	2%	Kerry +4
Marist (642 LV)	10/4 - 10/5	49%	46%	1%	Bush +3
Fox News (1000 LV)	10/3 - 10/4	47%	45%	1%	Bush +2
ICR (762 LV)**	10/1 - 10/5	51%	45%	2%	Bush +6
ARG (800 LV)	10/2 - 10/4	46%	46%	2%	TIE
ABC News/WP (1169 LV)	10/1 - 10/3	51%	46%	1%	Bush +5
CBS News/NYT (561 LV)	10/1 - 10/3	47%	47%	1%	TIE
Zogby (1036 LV)	10/1 - 10/3	46%	43%	2%	Bush +3
Pew Research (801 LV)	10/1 - 10/3	49%	44%	2%	Bush +5
CNN/USAT/Gallup (772 LV)	10/1 - 10/3	49%	49%	1%	TIE
Newsweek (1013 RV)	9/30 - 10/2	45%	47%	2%	Kerry +2
SHU Poll Inst. (1003 LV)	9/27 - 10/2	48%	43%	2%	Bush +5
Battleground (1000 LV)	9/27 - 9/30	51%	44%	1%	Bush +7
LA Times (1100 LV)	9/25 - 9/28	51%	45%	2%	Bush +6
CNN/USAT/Gallup (758 LV)	9/24 - 9/26	52%	44%	3%	Bush +8
IBD/TIPP (649 LV)	9/22 - 9/27	45%	45%	2%	TIE
ABC News/WP (810 LV)	9/23 - 9/26	51%	45%	1%	Bush +6
Pew Research (948 RV)	9/22 - 9/26	48%	40%	2%	Bush +8
Time (877 LV)	9/21 - 9/23	48%	42%	5%	Bush +6
FOX News (1000 LV)	9/21 - 9/22	46%	42%	1%	Bush +4
Battleground (1000 LV)	9/20 - 9/23	50%	45%	0%	Bush +5
Marist (630 LV)	9/20 - 9/22	50%	44%	2%	Bush +6
CBS News (931 LV)	9/20 - 9/22	51%	42%	2%	Bush +9
AP/Ipsos (931 LV)	9/20 - 9/22	52%	45%	1%	Bush +7
Pew Research (989 RV)	9/17 - 9/21	45%	42%	3%	Bush +3
NBC News/WSJ (787 LV)	9/17 - 9/19	50%	46%	1%	Bush +4
Zogby (1066 LV)	9/17 - 9/19	46%	43%	1%	Bush +3
IBD/TIPP (650 LV)	9/14 - 9/18	45%	42%	2%	Bush +3
ARG (LV)	9/7 - 9/21	47%	46%	1%	Bush +1
CBS News (1048 RV)	9/12 - 9/16	50%	41%	3%	Bush +9
CNN/USAT/Gallup (767 LV)	9/13 - 9/15	54%	40%	3%	Bush +14
Battleground (1000 LV)	9/12 - 9/15	49%	45%	1%	Bush +4
Pew Research (725 LV)	9/11 - 9/14	47%	46%	1%	Bush +1
Harris (867 LV)	9/9 - 9/13	47%	48%	2%	Kerry +1
Newsweek (1003 RV)	9/9 - 9/10	49%	43%	2%	Bush +6
IBD/TIPP (674 LV)	9/7 - 9/12	46%	46%	3%	TIE
Zogby (1018 LV)	9/8 - 9/9	46%	42%	2%	Bush +4
Time (857 LV)	9/7 - 9/9	52%	41%	3%	Bush +11
AP/Ipsos (899 LV)	9/7 - 9/9	51%	46%	1%	Bush +5
FOX/Opin. Dyn. (1000 LV)	9/7 - 9/8	47%	43%	3%	Bush +4
ABC News/Wash Post (LV)	9/6 - 9/8	52%	43%	2%	Bush +9
Pew Research (745 LV)	9/8 - 9/10	54%	38%	2%	Bush +16
CBS News (909 RV)	9/6 - 9/8	49%	42%	1%	Bush +7
CNN/USAT/Gallup (778 LV)	9/3 - 9/5	52%	45%	1%	Bush +7
Newsweek (1,008 RV)	9/2 - 9/3	52%	41%	3%	Bush +11
Click Here for More Polling Data

*ABC News and Washington Post use different likely voter models for the same field data, RealClearPolitics will use the Washington Post model when the two are different.
**To date we have not included the ICR poll in our RealClearPolitics averages. However, after speaking with the polling director at ICR we are now comfortable that the methodology of the poll is sound and merits inclusion along with the other polls in our average. (ICR has rounded this poll to 51-45 to better reflect the spread between the candidates.)
***This poll was originally reported as a head-to-head number, Thomas Riehle, the director of the poll with AP-Ipsos, brought it to out attention Oct 11, that it was a 3-way poll, and we have fixed the error.
****Democracy Corps is a Democratic Polling Firm

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RCP Election Information

3-Way: Bush-Kerry-Nader

Chart: 3-Way RCP Average

Head-to-Head: Bush-Kerry

RCP Electoral Count

RCP Electoral Map

Battleground States

Presidential Job Approval

Bush, Kerry: Fav/Unfav Ratings

Competitive U.S Senate Races

Snapshot: RCP Poll Averages

Generic Congressional Vote

Right Dir/Wrong Dir of Nation

Daily Poll Updates

State Polls
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AK	ID	MI	NY	TN
AZ	IL	MN	NC	TX
AR	IN	MS	ND	UT
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FL	ME	NH	RI	WI
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[freedumb2003]

SNL has fallen so much from the early '90s

Or the 70s. I was just telling my wife about the famous SNL ad for the South African N*ggerrand: "The Gift That Keeps On Grinning"

Very effective humor attack on Apartheid (a lot like Blazing Saddles). You could NEVER do a joke like that on Network TV today.

[Dat Mon]

The graph you show at the bottom with the Bush Kerry spread does not look right to me. There is a strong cyclical element to it....the period seems to be 4-6 weeks. With a strict statistical sampling variance...the spread should resemble random noise.

Also, the cyclical element seems to have shifted up by several points starting Sept1. Based on this graph..it would appear that Bush would peak in the next week or so...then head back down to a spread of Bush +2/+3 on election day.

[wolf24]

Newt predicted this would happen on Hannity the day after the 3rd debate and would continue to widen. Let's hope he's correct.

[FairOpinion]

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/chart3way.html

It's a graph of RCP poll averages.

[okstate]

I wasn't born until the 80s... oh well. My parents always talk about how great the SNL of the 70s was.

[pabianice]

This data is a catastrophe for Kerry as it presages a Bush victory of 54-44-2. Watch for him to hit Bush with a BIG lie days before the election.

[mattdono]

I agree. Many of us around here are just shaking our heads at the predicability of the MSM. If it weren't for the fact that this election is so critical, it would be funny.

Unfortunately, the MSM's actions on behalf of Kerry and the demoCREEPs are really pathetic.

[pabianice]

Actually it doesnt count the AP poll with Kerry up 4,. If you notice on the break down the drop off is friday the 15th.

Duh! The AP poll is two weeks old...

[Dat Mon]

Understand. The statistical sampling variance is very interesting. Dont know what to make of it.

[unspun]

Bush will likely need a consistent 3+ advantage in the polls in order to win, due to Democrat registration, GOTV and fraud in the battleground states.

Throw in some sort of concoted, last minute story in the media, claiming some sort of sin on the part of W. and Bush would need maybe double that advantage (6+).

[onevoter]

So Wisconsin is back in the too-close to call range?
That is probably because Milwaukee got all the ballots they requested. Now they can stuff the ballot boxes again!

[arasina]

Poles, yes. Polls, no.

[bray]

Imagine what the lead would be if W had not lost all 3 debates.....Right!!

Pray for W and Our Troops

[Perdogg]

The problem with RCP it weighs all polls equally.

If you have a poll A of 1200 LV and it's Bush 50 Kerry 44 and another poll B of 650 LV that has Bush 48 Kerry 45.

What should the poll average be? I say,

Bush = (1200 x .50) + (650 x .48)/(1200 + 650)

Bush = 912/1850 = 49.30

Kerry = (1200 x .44) + (650 x .45)

Kerry = 820.5/1850 = 44.35

Right?

[handy]

The trend is our friend again

[MEG33]

CNN/USAT/Gallup (788 LV) 10/14 - 10/16 52% 44% 1% Bush +8

CNN/USAT/Gallup (793 LV) 10/9 - 10/10 48% 49% 1% Kerry +1

CNN/USAT/Gallup (772 LV) 10/1 - 10/3 49% 49% 1% TIE

CNN/USAT/Gallup (767 LV) 9/13 - 9/15 54% 40% 3% Bush +14

I wonder about this poll

[miskie]

Correct,however, I don't think its intentional that RCP does that but in essence, polls with lower numbers of people polled end up with a statistically higher value to the averages.

It probably didn't cross the site-makers minds. So, looking at that data, I too am giving GWB a 5 or so point advantage at this time.

[Cinnamon Girl]

EXCERPTS FROM OPRAH'S: "DUMBER THAN DISHWATER ACTRESSES GET OUT THE VOTE!"

During the show taping, Cameron is overwhelmed by emotion.

Oprah: Cameron is having a moment. What is this about?

Cameron: Well, I'm so proud of my friend [Drew Barrymore]. She took a whole year out of her busy schedule. She's a producer, she's an actor…she did this to take the time to educate people about it. And then I started listening to people saying, 'Oh, I don't vote because it just doesn't affect me. And I just got overwhelmed, because I think this is the best country in the world. And it just scares me that we're just going to squander it all away. That we're going to lay down and let people take it away from us.

Oprah: I am very, very afraid.

Cameron: I'm really scared. I don't know if you guys know this about our country…but people—we're all alone right now. And, where we used to be the strongest in the world, we're alone. So, that's the beginning of something terrible, and so it's very important to go out there.

Oprah: I know. You're afraid of what's going to happen if people do not vote.

[ProudVet77]

I don't have the raw data, and I'm too lazy to enter it from your graph, but if I eyeball a linear regression curve through both graphs it look like W has gone up 3.5% and is experiencing an strong up tick on the slope. The same eyeballs, blurry from the Spankee win last night, see about a 1% gain overall but just passed a point of inflection where the slope has gone negative.
Good news.

[edwin hubble]

"SNL has fallen so much from the early '90s"

SNL has fallen so much more from the late '70s.

[labard1]

"Bush had 294 electoral votes in his column, now that Wisconsin has been put back in the tossup, he's down to 254. I hope Ohio, Florida, and Wisconsin get back in the fold. I couldn't care less about the popular vote then."

I'm not sure why, but changes in the national polls tend to show up in the state polls with about a one week delay. That should portend a great electoral vote picture by next weekend.