interesting banner at realclearpolitics.com
Posted on 10/20/2004 10:51:27 AM PDT by rocklobster11
Since I have too much time on my hands, I thought I'd do a little analysis of the data at Real Clear Politics. They show 61 polls taken since 9/1 and 28 polls taken since 10/1. Here are the averages:
| Poll | Bush | Kerry |
| Average of 61 polls since 9/1 | 48.75% | 44.31% |
| Average of 28 polls since 10/1 | 48.15% | 45.67 |
Also, I took a look at the percentage of polls where each candidate was at or greater than a given percentage:
| Support Above Specified Level for 61 polls since 9/1 | Bush | Kerry |
| 40% | 100% | 98% |
| 41% | 100% | 95% |
| 42% | 100% | 90% |
| 43% | 100% | 77% |
| 44% | 100% | 66% |
| 45% | 100% | 56% |
| 46% | 93% | 34% |
| 47% | 79% | 13% |
| 48% | 66% | 8% |
| 49% | 51% | 5% |
| 50% | 36% | 2% |
| 51% | 28% | 0% |
| 52% | 15% | 0% |
| 53% | 3% | 0% |
You do have a lot of extra time on your hands.
Can you provide some kind of summation as to what you've found?
I'm tired.
I see the TIPP poll has closed from +4 Bush to +1 Bush over the last few days. The tracking polls, with the exception of ABC/Wapo seemed to have closed. Will be interesting to see if a trend or whether Bush back up 3-4 by Thur/Fri/Sat. Also, need to seem some more reputable state polls. Especially from FL, OH, WI, and PA.
What I really am showing is that Bush has consistently polled above 48% (more than 50%), while Kerry has polled above 48% in 1 poll out of 20.
...Yeah, I think so...but, pretend we're behind 10%, "don't let up/nose to grindstone" mindset is needed. :/
The TIPP poll is a great example of what I was trying to show. TIPP has shown the gap closing from 4% to 1%, but the actual numbers show Bush going from 49 down to 47 and Kerry going up from 45 to 46. Kerry has never been above 46% in the TIPP polls (since at least Sept 13), and Bushhas not been below 47% since Sept 28
The poll that will tell the real story is the results of the election. I pray that Bush pulls in excess of 50% and the results in none of the states are close enough for the DNC to attempt any of their numbers games. Especially with all of the phony reguistered voters they've added.
If the MSM were honest and telling the public about all of these fraudulent registrations, there is no way Kerry could win.
In a related poll, in voting already completed, Bush is up 100% - 0% in my household.
interesting banner at realclearpolitics.com
I'm sick of all of these polls. Can anyone tell me what happened in 2002? Didn't the MSM have several Senate and Congressional races extremely close and they turned into Republican blowouts? If anyone can confirm this please let me know. I'm hoping that we can expect the same thing this time around.
Good point...the MSM (ABCNNBC_BS) are very scared.
You can drown in a lake that only averages 2 inches deep.
The only poll that counts is either the one that shows a candidate is so far in front that it doesn't matter--or the last one.
RCP's graph sums your findings in much clearer summary. Bush is avergaing around 49%. Kerry is averaging around 45%
Unfortunately RCP seems to be down right now.
I hope you're right. (I think you are.) I just wanted someone to confirm that my fuzzy memories of November 2004 were correct. I know it was a fun evening and I'm hoping for a replay in a couple of weeks.
You are correct that we still need to keep the presure up till election day... I don't take too much stock in the polls anyway. The only true poll that counts is the one on Nov 2.
If I had to make a bet form your data, I'd bet Bush gets a bit over 50.5% and Kerry about 46.5%.The remaining 3 percent will split among third party candidates.
I will go out on a limb and predict that no state will be closer than half a percent, the margin at which free and automatic recounts kick in. As a fallback I will predict that the only really close states will be on Kerry's side and will not be recounted.
I think Kerry will concede by 3:00 am.
Good work... I was wondering about this...
Did you do an overall average of all the polls since they started tracking them?
Concession should come as soon as polls close on the west coast.
Interesting method. That says its a 49.X-45.X race. Its also says Bush polling is centered between 45.X and 53.X, while Kerry polling is centered between 39.X and 50.X Lastly, it shows a tipping point at roughly 46.75, with Kerry having a 1 in 6 chance of actually being in the lead.
Essentially, Bush and Kerry are seperated by 1 standard deviation in the polls, so only the high end of Kerry numbers and low end of Bush numbers give Kerry a lead.
Kerry's wider spread translates to more soft support in the polls, since all polls with different methodologies will only detect in unanimity the hard support for a candidate (apparently about 45% for Bush and 39% for Kerry). If that 15% of undecideds and soft-support (assume 1% for the field) breaks anything less than 3 to 1 for Kerry, Bush wins. If it beaks 2 to 1 for Kerry for even for Bush, Bush wins decisively. If it breaks 2 to 1 or 3 to 1 for Bush, its Bush in a landslide.
Again, we see Kerry must sweep the board.
Don't let the future get too fuzzy pal!
Another thing I found interesting is that Kerry was at or above 49% in only 5% of polls. Note that most polls have a 95% confidence level, so 5% of polls will be bogus. Coincidence?
Two Democrats have bested 49% nationally since 1944. Johnson in 1964 and Carter in 1976.
I think the pundits will be slow to call states this year. My guess is that no trend will be presented before midnight.
Nothing west of Iowa is likely to be critical to the election, at least not as a surprise. If Florida or Ohio go to Kerry, it will be a long night, even a long year.. If they both go to bush by 2 percent or more, it's over.
Can someone answer a question for me? My husband was polled last night (telephone). They specifically asked for the male head of household. It was a long poll, took him about 10 minutes. At the end they wanted his name. He had a problem with this, said he wasn't going to give his name, finally gave them some initials. Anyone ever heard of this? This is the first time either one of us has been polled. Live in Colorado by the way. Is asking the the respondents name SOP?
I don't know about asking the name, but they do ask for specific demographics when they call. A common one is to ask to speak to the youngest male over 18 first, and then the oldest female in the house, if there is no male there. I assume they need more men because they do alot of calls during the day when they are more likely to get housewives.
"In a related poll, in voting already completed, Bush is up 100% - 0% in my household."
I think the point you are tring to make is right- all polls are meaningless- a snapshot of 600-1000 people means nothing. I personally think this one is going to be close (unless some big news hits in the last weekend).
It's unfortunate that polls themselves make news.
Another thing national polls mean nothing the handful of "battleground" (see http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry_sbys.html) will decide this election. Which is unfortunate for a conservative, like myself, living in New York where my vote is pointless.
We need to sort our electoral system out- perhaps have electoral votes for each state shared according to the percentage of votes cast. That would encourage people to vote.
The popular vote victory is important, at least to stop the whiners on the left.
Every vote for Bush is *important* we need to give him the best popular mandate possible ... please vtoe Bush and get everyone you know todo the same. It *will* make a difference.
The MSM press shall continue to show a close horserace (for ratings, I guess). It is really hard to understand why they would shill for the 'RATS, any of their vaulted credibility will be gone.
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