Posted on 12/05/2001 12:08:25 AM PST by Cincinatus' Wife
What it has triggered inside the Zanu PF machine is a "total onslaught" in the old South African apartheid parlance. They have recognised that it has been urban workers and commercial farm workers who have been the backbone of the MDC. They have seen that small independent business has been able to support the MDC financially and all these sectors of our population have become a target. The commercial farmers have been smashed into the ground - now the State is taking their staff and their families and dumping them in the Zambezi Valley without food or any means of support.
……….Do not listen to the fine words spoken by African leaders - watch their actions and be warned. The majority do not give a damn about their own people or their welfare. All they want is control and power and the ability to use the resources of the state (and donors if possible) to feather their own nests and the nests of their close associates.***
Mugabe's new farmers in Mashonaland West are largely businessmen or politicians who bark orders down the phone to managers from their suburban homes in the city. In the Mazowe Valley last week, west of Harare, is first lady Grace Mugabe's farm, which she wrenched from a frightened old couple. She is growing a few hectares of maize, government tractors were ploughing for her last weekend at a dirt cheap price, and Mugabe's sister, Sabina, is trying her hand at seed maize on one of several farms she has taken. But none of them will in the foreseeable future produce enough food, or enough foreign currency to import what was grown before.***
One of Zimbabwe's largest fertilizer manufacturers, Zimbabwe Phosphates Industries (Zimphos), said last month that the fertilizer shortage in the country was likely to get worse because of increased foreign exchange problems, rising production costs and unrealistic retail prices imposed by the government. Companies had been forced to cut production by as much as 50 percent in the past year to stay in business.
"We said this program is going to be a disaster, and everybody can now see it's a disaster," said Renson Gasela, secretary for agriculture for the main opposition MDC. "What we are seeing is a confirmation that we really need a land reform program that can attract international support to see success," he told Reuters.***
………….. In early December, a group of impoverished black farmers asked the authorities to allow a white farmer to stay on his land because he was providing them with water and helping them to plow their fields. Their request was denied. The white farmer was forced to leave and the black farmers were forced to consider their futures. Manase Machekano, a 35-year-old resettled farmer, said he was losing hope. "I wish to plant maize, ground nuts and cotton, but I don't have the seeds," said Mr. Machekano, who was wearing a President Mugabe T-shirt. "The seeds are not coming in time, and soon the season will be over."
Tane Zingwa, an old man with four oxen, also complained that assistance has been slow in coming. He has no fertilizer and few seeds. Soon, he will have no water. Still, he continues to put his faith in the government. "What will happen to us?" Mr. Zingwa said. "I don't know. It's up to the government. The government put us here. The government must look after us."***
A power-sharing government would try to end an economic meltdown that has sent inflation soaring, caused a massive fuel shortage and left at least half Zimbabwe's population on the verge of starvation. Mugabe, who led the nation to independence in 1980, won a new six-year term in elections last March that independent observers said were deeply flawed. The MDC, along with Britain, the European Union and the United States, have refused to accept results, saying voting was rigged and influenced by violence and intimidation.
The early retirement of Mugabe, once seen as a towering African statesman, has long seemed inconceivable. MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai confirmed receiving the offer and, in a departure from recent opposition policy, told the AP his party's lawmakers were ready to vote with the ruling party for a constitutional amendment allowing the creation of a caretaker government once Mugabe stepped down. Any agreement would include guarantees of immunity for Mugabe, 78, from prosecution over alleged misrule and human rights violations during his 23 years in power, Tsvangirai said.***
Though both the government and the opposition have strenuously denied the reports, many Zimbabweans were unwilling Tuesday to dismiss them so easily. "It has caused a glimmer of hope," said Brian Raftopoulos, a political scientist at Harare University.
Mugabe, 78, led the nation to independence from Britain in 1980. But after 23 years of his authoritarian rule, many of his compatriots say they would not be sorry to see him step down. "If it's true, the old crocodile must go. Now," said Moses Bangure, a store clerk in Harare told shoppers at his checkout counter.
The leader of the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, Morgan Tsvangirai, has confirmed what he called a "clandestine" plan by independent mediators in which Mugabe would step down to clear the way for a caretaker government followed by presidential elections within two years. The mediators were representing two of the most powerful figures in the ruling party, Parliament Speaker Emmerson Mnangagwa and Gen. Vitalis Zvinavashe, chief of staff and commander of the armed forces. According to Tsvangirai, mediators said they had promised to deliver Mugabe's resignation.
"My own view is the offer could not have been made without Mugabe's knowledge and it is the beginning of a process," Raftopoulos said. Whatever the case, the idea won't go away easily. "There's a political stalemate in Zimbabwe, creating an ideal ground for a new initiative," Raftopoulos said. That was clearly the case Tuesday for a group of young doctors at a state hospital in Harare where basic drugs, surgical gloves and other supplies are in short supply. "Times are hard and it would be wonderful to see some changes," said one of several doctors gathered around a single copy of the state Herald newspaper. He said he did not want his name used.
Businessmen and factory owners also reported an atmosphere of anticipation and excitement. Hopes ran high that Mugabe's departure could lead to economic reforms that would end the now commonplace long lines for food and gasoline. Mugabe won a new six-year term in March elections. Independent observers said the elections were deeply flawed and the opposition, along with Britain, the European Union and the United States, said the voting was rigged and influenced by violence and intimidation. The political chaos and the government's isolation internationally has caused shortages of hard currency and essential imports. Disruptions in the agriculture-based economy and a severe drought have caused acute shortages of food.
During the past three years, Mugabe's government has seized most of Zimbabwe's thousands of white-owned commercial farms, calling it a justified struggle by landless blacks to correct colonial-era injustices that left 4,000 whites with one-third of the farm land. Mugabe's ruling party, Zanu-PF, has become almost dysfunctional but the opposition lacks the muscle and experience to confront it. Tsvangirai has said the opposition would not insist on Mugabe going into exile if he steps down. Malaysia was said to have offered Mugabe sanctuary.
But in Lusaka, Zambia, Mugage denied he would go into exile. "I was born in Zimbabwe and I won't go anywhere in exile. "I will remain in Zimbabwe and I will be buried on Zimbabwean soil,." Mugabe said during a ceremony honoring former Zambian President Kenneth Kaunda for his work to liberate southern Africa from colonial rule. However, U.N. officials have confirmed that World Food Program chief James Morris is scheduled to visit Zimbabwe next week and has been told he cannot see Mugabe - who would still be on vacation. Earlier, the government had said Mugabe was due back this week. [End]
Morgan Tsvangirai said that Mr Mugabe's lieutenants had "all virtually abandoned him and maintain an appearance of loyalty out of fear. The machinery around Mugabe is now collapsing fast and leaking heavily." He claimed to have received reports from people close to Mr Mugabe that the 78-year-old leader had told his family to "get ready for life after his 23-year-old dictatorship".
Zimbabwe was "grinding to a halt", Mr Tsvangirai said. Its commercial agriculture was in ruins. The country's fuel supply would dry up at the end of the month and there was no money to buy more. "Mugabe does not know where the next litre of diesel or petrol is coming from," he said. Mr Mugabe's "greatest nemesis" was the economy, which "refuses to bend to all his dictatorial formulae. He cannot use on the economy the same weapons he is using to subvert democracy and crush human rights. He cannot rig it, he cannot shoot it, he cannot intimidate it and, although he raped it, the economy continues to land fatal blows that Mugabe cannot block."
Mr Tsvangirai, leader of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC), issued the statement to rebut a stream of denials from Mr Mugabe and Zanu (PF) that two of the regime's senior members had secretly offered him a deal to save Zimbabwe from its deepening emergency.***
Back in August, Zimbabwe's Information minister, Jonathan Moyo, absurdly declared there was "no crisis in Zimbabwe" during a summit meeting with other officials from southern Africa. Mr. Moyo then attempted to divert attention on Zimbabwe by highlighting South Africa's problems. "It is you people who have Mandela [squatter] camps all over the place, not us. In fact, the average black person in Zimbabwe is better off than the average black person in South Africa."
South Africa quietly shrugged off Mr. Moyo's delusional rant and has refused to publicly criticize the Mugabe regime, even while the international community has applied mounting pressure on the government to call out Mr. Mugabe's abuses. But Zimbabwe's latest harangue won't be so easily ignored by South Africa.
South Africa's Sunday Times recently published a scoop that is making waves across Africa. On Jan. 12, the Times said Mr. Moyo spent nearly two weeks in Johannesburg around New Year's time with his family. During his stay, Mr. Moyo bought (always accompanied by bodyguards) enough food and other goods to fill not only his Mercedes and his Pajero SUV and one other vehicle, but also a trailer. Perhaps this report explains why Mr. Moyo fails to see a crisis in his native Zimbabwe. For ordinary Zimbabweans, the combination of a severe food shortage and price controls have made food extremely difficult to come by.
The story, while highlighting the remarkable hypocrisy of Mr. Mugabe's associates, could have ended there. But Mr. Moyo felt compelled to lash out against South Africa and its government in reaction to the Times article. In a statement carried in the state-owned Harare newspaper the Herald, Mr. Moyo said, "I have always had a nagging feeling that for all their propensity for liberal values and civilized norms, these people [South Africans] are dirty. In fact, they are filthy and recklessly uncouth. Now the evidence is there for any decent person to see.If these people, in the name of South Africa, believe they can lead an African renaissance, then God help them because they are joking. Their barbarism will never take root or find expression in Africa." Mr. Moyo said his remarks have been twisted out of context.
In a telephone interview, a South African diplomat expressed the government's escalating frustration with the Mugabe regime, saying the government was carefully weighing its response. But the government was tired of taking abuse from Zimbabwe and is considering "turning our backs" on Mr. Mugabe, he said. Meanwhile, a State Department official representing the bureau of African affairs said the Bush administration could be poised to expand its current sanctions on the Zimbabwean regime to include an asset freeze on Mr. Mugabe & Co.
Clearly, Zimbabwe is hitting bottom in every possible respect - diplomatically, socially, economically. Many observers expect a wave of food riots to rock Zimbabwe. It does appear Mr. Mugabe could be increasingly isolated, even inside Africa. And that could be the beginning of a new future for Zimbabwe. Other possible outcomes are too chilling to consider. [End]
The defence will claim that the video had been doctored to misrepresent the conversation and that key exchanges are inaudible. The prosecution's chief witness is Ari Ben-Menashe, a former Israeli intelligence agent who runs the Canadian firm, Dickens and Madson. Last week he said that he had been subpoenaed to appear and would testify if called, ending speculation in Zimbabwe that he would not attend the trial. The timing of the hearing may be awkward for the government as it launches a diplomatic offensive to persuade the Commonwealth "troika" of South Africa, Nigeria and Australia to lift its suspension. The case also comes as Zimbabwe attempts to take advantage of a French invitation to visit Paris to have sanctions lifted on Mr Mugabe and his allies.
"I think Tsvangirai and his colleagues are going to use this trial to highlight Mugabe's violent campaign against the opposition, his record on human rights," said a Western diplomat in Harare. "I think Mugabe's politics will end up in the dock and the president's and the government's image is likely to suffer." Last week, Mr Tsvangirai said: "We will defend ourselves strongly because we are innocent. We're victims of a government frame-up."***
Nam Vet
Now there are hints that after 22 years in power, Mugabe may be on shaky ground. Earlier this month, the government-owned newspaper, the Sunday Mirror, reported that two of Mugabe's closest aides, Defense chief Vitalis Zvinavashe and parliamentary speaker Emmerson Mnangagwa, were negotiating a deal with opposition politicians to allow Mugabe to retire in exile in return for immunity from prosecution for human rights violations during his long rule. In this scenario, Mugabe would settle in another country, probably Malaysia.
Back home, members of his ruling party would form a unity government with the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, allowing several years for a return to stability before elections could be held. Since the plan was made public, however, Mugabe as well as Zvinavashe and Mnangagwa have vigorously denied that any such scheme exists. "This was a very tentative approach," says Paul Nyati, official spokesman for the MDC. "What is needed is a bold move by members of the ruling party," Zimbabweans are running out of patience with Mugabe. A recent survey by the Mass Public Opinion Institute, a Harare think tank, found that 65 percent of respondents wanted Mugabe to immediately announce his retirement plans.
International pressure is also increasing. The United States, Britain, Australia, New Zealand, Canada, and the European Union have proposed "smart sanctions," which target individuals rather than countries by freezing personal and business assets held by Zimbabwe's leadership. And Washington and the European Union have slapped an arms embargo on the country. ***
Mr Ben-Menashe, a former Israeli intelligence officer, says the three contracted him to assassinate President Robert Mugabe before last year's elections. Mr Mugabe won but international observers said the poll was marred by violence and fraud and Mr Tsvangirai is contesting the result in court.
Coincidence
South African anti-apartheid lawyer George Bizos said prosecutors would not give him any information on Mr Ben-Menashe's work for the government, though the consultant testified that he had been paid about $1m for his lobbying work. Prosecutors said Mr Ben Menashe's services to the government were unrelated to the treason charges, Mr Bizos told Judge Paddington Garwe.
"There is a similarity between the fraud we say was committed against the MDC and its office bearers and a number of other frauds that have been committed by the witness and his companies by interfering with high profile political matters, getting money and then turning the tables against the people to whom the fraudulent representations were made," Mr Bizos said.
The lawyer submitted documents of a London arbitration court ruling that one of Mr Ben-Menashe's companies had failed to deliver $7million-worth of promised corn to Zambia. Mr Ben-Menashe said that deal was altered by former Zambian President Frederick Chiluba and was still being contested by lawyers.
'Not elimination'
The court has also been watching the grainy video, which Mr Ben-Menashe recorded as evidence against Mr Tsvangirai. [End]
"If Morgan had come out, I think it would made a difference," says Mr. Madhuku. "Now the people are losing faith, there is no doubt about it. He may lose the momentum."
But Tsvangirai and others in the MDC say the failure of the NCA to attract widespread support for their "stay-aways" demonstrate the danger of moving to fast. Any action must be planned carefully. Failed action, they say, is worse than none at all. Tsvangirai insists that plans are being made, but that he is not at liberty to discuss them. But even he acknowledges that action is difficult while, as he puts it, "the noose" is around his neck.***
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