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Could the Civil War Have Been Avoided?
Discovery News ^ | October 15, 2002 | Jennifer Viegas

Posted on 10/20/2002 8:01:28 PM PDT by Aurelius

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To: WhiskeyPapa
There might still some form of second class citizenship for blacks if the Slave Power had its way.

There was second-class citizenship for blacks when I was growing up. I remember back of the bus, back of the theater, water fountains for coloreds, restaurants not serving blacks, separate colored waiting rooms in doctors' offices, a black guy with a masters degree taking the trash out of our offices, and run down public school facilities.

I remember blacks having to prove they could read in order to vote. (Actually, that may not be such a bad thing for everyone, regardless of color.)

Those were the good old boy days of control by the Democrat Party, worthless scum that they were/are.

41 posted on 10/22/2002 4:34:51 PM PDT by rustbucket
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To: GOPcapitalist
"Wlat" the ne0-yankee's ne0-yankee? Wlat, who has won the victory over his local self, and loves Central Brother??
LOL!

Federalist 39 Dittos

42 posted on 10/22/2002 7:47:10 PM PDT by H.Akston
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To: WhiskeyPapa
There might still some form of second class citizenship for blacks..."

Wait - blacks never had the "power" (your favorite word) to pull off a slave revolt. According to what you said in that other thread "there is no such thing as rights", "everything must be bought and paid for", blacks still don't have the right to liberty, according to what you said about the right to revolution.

43 posted on 10/22/2002 8:00:45 PM PDT by H.Akston
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To: rustbucket
All the mistreatment of blacks is rooted in the unconstitutional tyranny of Reconstruction and Yankee military rule. It's revenge, it may not be the Christian thing to do, but it's understandable, when the horrors of Reconstruction are reviewed and learned, as they must be, with individual effort, in this reconstructed world we live in.
44 posted on 10/22/2002 8:06:25 PM PDT by H.Akston
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To: rustbucket
Certainly without John Brown there would have been less secessionist sentiment. What were largely abstract and theoretical questions became very concrete with his attempt to touch off a slave revolt. It was much easier to get majorities for secession after his action, even though the Upper South rejected secession up until the beginning of hostilities.

The thing about the abolitionists is just how much effect such a small group could have. I don't know about the statistics, but most Northerners weren't abolitionists. Without Brown, Northerners could have convinced Southerners that abolition and slave revolts were't coming any time soon. After Brown it was impossible to do so.

You could say that the militant abolitionists killed off gradual compensated abolition. The other side of the coin is that the absence of a real program of gradual compensated emancipation created militant abolitionism.

One way of looking at Garrison's abolitionism is that it was abolitionism for a democratic, not to say demagogic, age. The older gradualists came from a more aristocratic and republican environment and didn't have much visible success in the South. The younger generation would use the new popular press to agitate and organize (though this could be seen as a return to the tactics of the revolution). A great success by the earlier gradualists could have frustrated the militant younger generation, but those older gradual abolitionists were probably thrown off balance by Garrison's rising generation.

The colonies really didn't interact with each other that much. They were insular and more isolated from each other. To the degree that they weren't completely self-reliant or self-sufficient, they were trading with England and the West Indies, much more than with each other.

Bringing the colonies together in one country probably did put us well on the way towards sectional conflict. Railroads and the new lands west of the Appalachians and Mississippi helped to create a country, but one by-product was that the growing together of sections made us more aware of the differences between us.

Some have seen the agricultural-industrial conflict as that between the old colonial model of production of raw materials for the global market and the new national model of workshops and factories producing finished goods for the home and foreign markets. The tragedy is that the new states didn't bring the old ones together, but helped to pull them apart.

Slavery probably would have been abolished when it was no longer profitable. Probably around the turn of the century, or perhaps by the 1930s. Possibly a compensated emancipation would be followed by colonization or peonage. Abolition might have come near the turn of the century and been followed by some mixture of bondage and nominal freedom that would have endured until mechanical cotton pickers took off. But of course people couldn't have forseen this at the time of the Civil War.

It's hard to think that the USA or CSA could have kept slavery for a century or half-century longer than we did. But our timeline for abolition has been influenced by what actually happened here in the 1860s, so one could expect that Brazil and Cuba might have kept slavery longer if we did too. MacKinley Cantor's fantasy of a victorious Confederacy spontaneously abolishing slavery after the war is too romantic and sentimental.

Things always seem inevitable or fated in retrospect. One could imagine a great national leader who might have prevented war and brought emancipation peacefully. We might then have looked at things very differently. But it wasn't to be. Maybe one reason was that we didn't have any strong external enemies to unite against. Consequently national sentiment declined in the Deep South. And soon enough we had found enemies to unite against -- in each other.

45 posted on 10/22/2002 8:58:03 PM PDT by x
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To: H.Akston
All the mistreatment of blacks is rooted in the unconstitutional tyranny of Reconstruction and Yankee military rule.

I wouldn't say that all mistreatment of blacks stems from it, but there certainly was heartfelt resentment by Southern whites of Reconstruction and Yankee military rule.

In Texas, after being voted out of the governership by a 2-to-1 margin, armed Radical Republicans seized the basement of the capitol building and the mayor of Austin to try to hold on to power by force. There is an interesting 1889 account of this 1873 event at Radical Republican Power Grab -- scroll down to the bottom of the first column on page 302.

In this case, I would have sided with the Democrats. But that was then and this is now.

46 posted on 10/22/2002 9:07:05 PM PDT by rustbucket
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To: Aurelius
Does anyone have more information on the Ft. Sumter history? I've been led toward the suspicion that the Southern force situated on the shore was purposely mislead into aggressive action by a purposeful feint from the Union.
47 posted on 10/23/2002 7:55:16 PM PDT by NewRomeTacitus
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To: NewRomeTacitus
I don't know of any action by the Union other than trying to resupply the fort. The Union did this knowing that South Carolina had previously fired on a ship sent to resupply the fort back in January and drove it away. Check out the published communications between Charleston and Confederate Headquarters in Montgomery:

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/737289/posts?page=385#385
48 posted on 10/23/2002 8:48:52 PM PDT by rustbucket
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To: NewRomeTacitus
Here is another old post. Lincoln sent down 6 vessels of war with his resupply ship. The weather was too bad for them to get into Charleston harbor while Fort Sumter was under fire. It looks like Lincoln was prepared to blast his way in or fight any attempt to stop the resupply, but the weather worked against him.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/737289/posts?page=467#467
49 posted on 10/23/2002 9:02:59 PM PDT by rustbucket
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To: Aurelius
The real issue then and now was slavery, and whatever it was then, that is what it is now, and the institution needed to be destroyed, by force of arms if necessary. And it WAS necessary. Period. Thus whether or not the war COULD have been avoided, it should NOT have been avoided.
50 posted on 10/23/2002 9:05:57 PM PDT by Torie
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To: x
Slavery would have been profitable until mechanized cotton picking was invented in 1946. According to Michael Barone in the New Americans, that was when the planters started forcing blacks out and to the North, rather than keeping northern job merchants out who were seeking cheap labor for northern factories.
51 posted on 10/23/2002 9:14:57 PM PDT by Torie
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To: Torie
"...the institution needed to be destroyed, by force of arms if necessary. And it WAS necessary. Period."

Slavery was not destroyed, it was merely transformed. What do you think the so-called "income tax" is? Slavery is as necessary a concommitant of civilization as syphillis and war.

52 posted on 10/24/2002 7:50:38 AM PDT by Aurelius
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To: Torie
It's certainly possible that, in the absence of the Civil War, slavery would have endured down to the 1940s. I tried to give the benefit of the doubt to the idea that at some point, the USA or CSA would have been tempted to buy out slaveholders in order to win over foreign critics. That wouldn't have meant complete freedom, though. There would most likely have been some form of serfdom or peonage until the labor wasn't needed, with segregation lasting afterwards. I'm not sure that we disagree in substance.

Another factor is foreign competition. With new countries taking up cotton production, the profitability of slave plantations would have been cut into. While this wouldn't necessarily have meant an end to slavery, it could have weakened the power of the slaveholders and their ability to maintain slavery.

Yet another possibility is that slave revolts would occur, leaving large areas of the country in chaos.

53 posted on 10/24/2002 9:19:59 AM PDT by x
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To: x
"It's certainly possible that, in the absence of the Civil War, [chattel] slavery would have endured down to the 1940s."

I consider that outside of the realm of possibility.

54 posted on 10/24/2002 9:52:34 AM PDT by Aurelius
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To: H.Akston
All the mistreatment of blacks is rooted in the unconstitutional tyranny of Reconstruction and Yankee military rule.

All the mistreatment of blacks is rooted in the southern institution of treating them as chattel property, to be bought and sold, and not as human beings.

55 posted on 10/24/2002 10:57:19 AM PDT by LexBaird
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To: Aurelius
I won't quibble. Slavery existing until 1890 or 1900 is wholly plausible and likely. How much longer it might have lasted isn't answerable. See my response above. My own belief is that chattel slavery would have been abolished well before the 1940s and replaced by some form of neo-slavery, peonage or serfdom. But just as there are hidden polygamists in the West, who can say what might have endured in out of the way places?
56 posted on 10/24/2002 11:02:40 AM PDT by x
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To: WhirlwindAttack
..The real question is Can the next civil war be avoided...

You have correctly stated the issue.

The coastal blue Zone will be overcome by refugees from inland cities and then will be squeezed into capitulation when devoid of all resources.

57 posted on 10/24/2002 11:05:41 AM PDT by bert
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To: LexBaird
All the mistreatment of blacks is rooted in the southern institution of treating them as chattel property, to be bought and sold, and not as human beings.

Slavery wasn't solely a Southern institution. You'll find black slaves in New York in the old Dutch records, and the Puritan settlers of Massachusetts sold hundreds of captured Indians into slavery. Slavery remained in place longer in the South because the economics of large scale plantation agriculture favored it. The North generally had poorer soil and smaller farms.

58 posted on 10/24/2002 11:22:05 AM PDT by rustbucket
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To: Aurelius
As a son of the South, I say this, could the war have been avoided? At the particular time it happened? Certainly, was open warfare inevitable? Undoubtably.

Was the war started over slavery? No. Was it fought strictly over slavery? No. I will say this though, had slavery not ended with the end of the Civil War, another war would have occurred sooner or later around that very issue.

Slavery was not going to die in America without bloodshed, even the founding fathers knew this.

59 posted on 10/24/2002 11:28:19 AM PDT by HamiltonJay
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To: x
It's certainly possible that, in the absence of the Civil War, [chattel] slavery would have endured down to the 1940s.

Given southern attitudes towards blacks in the 80 years after the Civil War I don't think that this would be impossible to imagine. I doubt that plantation slave labor would have lasted until then, but a large percentage of slaves never set foot in a cotton field. They provided domestic labor and the economic incentive to end that form of chattle slavery would have been much different than the incentives needed by the plantation owner. The idea of a family owning a servant or cook or maid as late as 1940 is not that hard to believe, assuming that an independent confederacy could have A) held out against international pressure to end slavery, and B) mustered the political will to change their state and national constitutions to allow the government to end it. It never would have ended otherwise.

60 posted on 10/24/2002 11:29:52 AM PDT by Non-Sequitur
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