California Governor's Race: No Place for Filing Premature Obituaries

NewsMax.com ^ | 10/22/02 | Paul Weyrich

[NormsRevenge]

California Governor's Race: No Place for Filing Premature Obituaries

Paul Weyrich
Tuesday, Oct. 22, 2002

U.S. Rep. Tom Davis, R-Va., has earned respect in political circles for the work that he has done as chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee. He has been an aggressive fundraiser and recruiter of candidates. He is a "Big Tent" Republican, and that has earned him his share of critics within conservative circles. But there is widespread acknowledgement that he is a savvy politician and aggressive promoter of the Republican Party.

That said, even his strongest supporters must be left wondering what prompted Davis to make his remarks about the prospects of Bill Simon, the Republican candidate for governor in California.

Davis was appearing at the National Press Club with his Democratic counterpart, Rep. Nita Lowey, D-N.Y., when he evidently spoke his mind about Simon's chances. According to the report filed by New York Times reporter Adam Nagourney, Davis said, "I don't think there's a single worst-run race in the country than the governor's race in California on the part of the Republicans."

He went on to add that the GOP with Simon as the nominee had "booted" its chances in the state and even suggested that Simon would pull down the GOP's congressional candidates.

Lowey was left speechless about this assertion, but Ed Rollins, the veteran GOP campaign manager who is helping Simon, certainly was not when told of Davis' premature obituary of Davis' chances. "I wish [Davis] well. I just wish he would wish us well."

Admittedly, Simon's campaign has not been the smoothest-run enterprise around. More importantly, though, even Gray Davis partisans would have to admit that many Californians do not feel a strong connection with him. Otherwise, Simon would not have been just 7 points behind the governor in a Field Poll taken in late summer.

Today syndicated political columnist Robert Novak wrote that a tracking poll taken last week for the California Teachers Association showed Simon within striking distance of Davis.

And syndicated columnist George Will wrote last week that all is not doom and gloom by any means for Simon.

I'd like to add my two cents to this discussion because a recent phone call from Sen. Charles Grassley reminded me of how volatile the electorate can be and how quickly the poll numbers can change during a campaign.

Iowa voters now hold Chuck Grassley in wide admiration for his honesty and integrity. He is a strong conservative, but his basic fairness and willingness to consider the facts have earned him the respect of many moderates and liberals as well. He sets the standard by which elected officials in Iowa are judged.

Back in 1980, though, he was a congressman who was 15 percentage points down in mid-October against Sen. John Culver (D). It was a discouraging time. However, conservatives in Iowa and across the nation became energized, not letting the deficit become an excuse for letting down our effort to elect Chuck Grassley. Conservatives made a concerted effort during the closing weeks of the campaign to reach out to our base and to turn it out to vote on Election Day.

It would be too easy to say that Ronald Reagan's strong victory that year helped pull Chuck Grassley to victory. Frankly, while the final results proved that Reagan had run a superior campaign to that of President Jimmy Carter, there was a great deal of uncertainty in mid-October about his own chances, particularly among the political establishment.

What made the difference in Iowa was the ability of Chuck Grassley, his campaign and the conservative movement to maintain their morale and continue to work hard in the face of apparent adversity. And one thing he did not have to contend with was a remark like that made by Rep. Davis.

Even the best of us in public life – myself included – make verbal gaffes from time to time. So I hope Rep. Davis regrets his statement. I rather doubt that he would be so willing to close the door on some of his favored challengers who might be down in the polls at this point against incumbents with mediocre ratings.

In a race with a governor whose ratings are as mediocre as Davis' and a credible challenger like Simon, who has confronted adverse press coverage regarding his financial dealings only to come out clean and remain competitive, it is premature for either side to start filing the competition's obituary, much less to say one for their own candidate. I would think that, given his position, Rep. Davis would very much like to find himself proven wrong on Election Night.

Paul M. Weyrich is Chairman and CEO of the Free Congress Foundation.

Read more on this subject in related Hot Topics:
California Governors Race

[NormsRevenge]

DUMP DAVI$


GO SIMON


***

Tom McClintock for CA State Controller

***

Dick Ackerman for CA Attorney General

***

Gary Mendoza for CA Insurance Commissioner

You Can Make A Difference! FReepWatch on AMERICA!!!
...DATE../..TIME...	...CITY../..SITE...	...ADDRESS..	...MORE INFORMATION...
Tuesday 10/22/2002 - 7 pm Gather at 6:30 pm	Palo Alto, CA	BAY AREA DUMP DAVI$ Rally TechNet TownHall Meeting w/Gray Davis Hyatt Rickey’s 4219 El Camino Real Palo Alto, CA Cross Street - Charleston Road	Re-scheduled Event Remember When GraYouT Davi$ got BUSTED on the High Speed Rail Pay-Off! Freepers, Gather at 6:30 pm For everyone who has wanted to know what they can do to keep Gray "Show me the Money" Davis out of Sacramento, try to make time to be outside the following with as big a "For Sale" sign as you can muster.
Saturday 10/26/2002 11 am until 3 pm, rain or shine.	Washington, DC	THE PATRIOTS RALLY FOR AMERICA II The Washington Monument at the corner of 17th Street and Constitution Avenue, NW.	Bring your flags, signs and patriotism! As always, the D.C. Chapter's rules for demonstrating will be in effect. Briefly, they are: No violence, no racism, no profanity, no threats, no provocations, obey the law and treat all law enforcement officers with respect.
Saturday 10/26/2002 12pm	San Francisco, CA	West Coast Patriots Rally "Stop the Warped (Leftists)" Rally City Hall - across from the Civic Center Plaza. Carlton Goodlett Place between McAllister St. and Grove St.	Bring your flags, signs and patriotism! Please be aware, even though there may be police there, we are each responsible for our own safety. Parking available at the Civic Center Parking Garage. BART stops a few blocks away. Cal-train + bus is also available.
Tuesday 10/29/2002 - 12 pm	New York City	Cipriani 42nd Street 110 East 42nd Street New York, NY	New York FReePers Heads UP!!! MICHAEL EISNER, the big cheese of Disney, and his family will be honored for their contributions to Jewish Home and Hospital. Barbara Walters presides, as her friend, Elton John, that man of many events, entertains. Cipriani 42nd Street is located at 110 East 42nd Street. It is situated on the South side of the Street between Lexington Avenue & Park Avenue. A clutch of famous names - Gov. Gray Davis - native son of NY, Sens. Joseph Lieberman and Barbara Boxer, Barry Diller - will send special video tributes.

[NormsRevenge]

Ping

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

I'll ping the list.

Memories:

California Power Crisis animations featuring Governor Gray Davis

AND......................

...to see what bad, bad things Davis has done... - CLICK HERE

calgov2002:

calgov2002: for old calgov2002 articles. 

calgov2002: for new calgov2002 articles. 

Other Bump Lists at: Free Republic Bump List Register

[Gophack]

GREAT article! Thanks! You always find the fun ones!

I particularly want to repeat this line:

What made the difference in Iowa was the ability of Chuck Grassley, his campaign and the conservative movement to maintain their morale and continue to work hard in the face of apparent adversity.

WE CONSERVATIVES will NOT let Bill Simon down! Go Simon! Dump Davis!

[Saundra Duffy]

Sacramento Bee is going to print my letter to the editor about Saturday's DUMP DAVIS Rally. Yahoo! Here's the text:

Re "Hundreds join anti-war rally," Oct. 20: The Bee gave great coverage to the anti-war protest but was silent about FreeRepublic.com's "Dump Davis" rally which took place on the same day on the south steps of the Capitol.

Our rally had great visuals -- a real dump truck, huge banners, anti-Gov. Gray Davis signs, pro-Bill Simon signs, as well as the "Vast Right Wing Street Theater," which featured two dueling "eGray hookers" to make fun of Gray Davis's "pay to play" policies. About 150 people were in attendance. Several speakers gave rousing speeches. We were there to vent our outrage over Davis outrageously corrupt governance and to tout our support for Simon.

It was a great rally but not one word was written in The Bee. Maybe it's because we're a totally grass roots operation; we're not professionals. Or maybe -- and this is my theory -- The Bee is biased.

Saundra Duffy, Sacramento

[eureka!]

FYI. This one's not over till it's over--when Simon is elected...

[Coop]

Tom Davis was way out of line with his comments.

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

It was a great rally but not one word was written in The Bee. Maybe it's because we're a totally grass roots operation; we're not professionals. Or maybe -- and this is my theory -- The Bee is biased.

Couldn't be,.... of course they have endorsed Pay -to - Play Davis again, I hear!!

[Common Tator]

Simon is elected...

Ain't gonna happened. I told you Simon would lose the day after Simon won the nomination. People thought I was lying then. They think I am lying now.

For months I have said the inept pig-headedness of Simple Simon would elect the unelectable Davis.

In a very short time you will not be able to say Davis will not win. Davis will have won. You will be reduced to saying I was wrong about how Davis won... but not that Davis won.

The question is, will those that have followed Simon down that well worn road to defeat learn anything from the loss or are they doomed to repeat their mistakes for generations yet to come.

It is hard for Democrats to lose when they picked both parties candidates. When people like you fail to see that Davis picked the Repubican canidiate, there is little hope.

Most likely to win, the Repubican party will do what it has done in New York. Republicans will move to the left with candidates like Pataki and Bloomberg.

Members of parties are about ideology. But the party is always about winning. After this debacle, the majority of California Repubicans would nominate Karl Marx if they could get him to run and win. But they will settle for someone just to the left of Bloomberg. A Goldwater style defeat never brings about a Reagan next. It brings about a Nixon.

Have a nice Trickey Dick in 2006.

[eureka!]

Your comments imply this race has to do with Simon's stance on the issues, i.e. that he is too conservative. That is not why his numbers are down. That is because of $45 million in negative ads defining him by Grayout, albeit fraudulent definitions. On that point, I find some of your earlier comments to be spot on. This is especially with respect to the large numbers of "undecideds" (Davis can hardly break 40%) who may just not vote. Those that do will not vote for Davis.

You fail, however, to understand what is happening below the radar here in California. The people, rats included, loathe Davis. Absolutely. Simon has believers. Motivated believers. Believers that are working their tails off. Simon can't battle the presstitutes so he is all over talk radio and in the streets. Conventional wisdom which you have a lot of is not going to bear out.

As to Riordan, you are right that Davis' $10 million helped defeat him--but not the 60% swing from the beginning polls where Simon was down to Dickie by 40 points and whooped his liberal, wrinkeled ass by 20 points. That was due in large part to Simon and his supporters. Indeed, accepting your contention as true, what do you think Davis would have done to Riordan if he could do that to Dickie in the Republican primary?

As experienced as you appear to be in matters political, methinks you will be surprised (hopefully, pleasantly) when Simon pulls this one off.

Putting money where my less experienced and perhaps irrationally optimistic mouth is, $20 to FreeRepublic says you're going to be eating crow on this race come November....

[RonDog]

As I posted previously, many opinion leaders in American conservative thought are now preparing for a Simon VICTORY:

George Will - Political earthquake in California? GOP underdog could win governorship

...If, say, 10 days before Nov. 5 headlines proclaim the race tied, Davis probably will become California’s first governor in 60 years to be denied a second term.
This is a tribute to Davis’ remarkable ability to arouse in the electorate a longing to vote for almost anyone else...
...In 1966 another rookie running for governor, Ronald Reagan, revived the Republicans’ successful 1946 slogan “Had enough?”
Simon’s billboards say: “Had enough? Fire Davis.”
And he has at his back the winds of Hurricane Rudy. A friend since Simon’s days as a young prosecutor in New York, Giuliani campaigned for Simon when his support was just 5 percent early in the primary campaign, and recently returned for five events...
...Simon resembles the Anaheim Angels: He can’t be where he is — but he is.

National Review - Simon Can Still Win - Seriously

So there you have it: three reasons why Bill Simon just might end up surprising us all — (1) he has good ads in a state where TV is crucial; (2) voter turnout may work to his advantage; and (3) his opponent could be more ethically-challenged than imagined.

With the Giants and Angels going at it, it's been the year of the wild card in California. In that vein, maybe Simon turns out to be the unlikeliest of winners.

And to think: He may not need a "rally monkey" to pull it off.

Bob Novak - California Puzzle -- Poll Shows Simon Beating Davis

...The nightly tracking poll taken for the California Teachers Association (CTA), made available to Republicans Friday morning, was startling.

Thursday night's telephone interviews about the race for governor showed beleaguered Republican candidate Bill Simon leading Democratic Gov. Gray Davis 34.2 percent to 33.7 percent...

...If Bush comes in, it will be to help Simon.
This is a test for the president and his political team.
A stunning upset by a terribly flawed campaign would cheer an election night where longtime Republican governorships in Illinois, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin probably will end in top-heavy defeats...

[eureka!]

Still a hell of a lot of work to do. GOTV is critical. Totally....

[daviddennis]

As a general rule, it's a good idea not to write the post mortem until the cause is officially dead. What do you hope to gain from that, anyway?

Your bleak line of thought has a seductive appeal, of course. People are suspicious of polyanna-like optimism nowadays, in a world where the only consistency is the prevailance of Murphy's Law. And, of course, it's the perfect excuse for apathy, for not doing anything, for not bothering to go to the polls.

I know plenty of people, including myself, who are working very hard to try and turn this perception around and to help elect Bill Simon in November. If you're right, this is a completely futile effort and we should stay at home and knit or do something otherwise productive.

So let me tell you something: I've been having one heck of a lot of fun. I've gone places I've never been to before, I've staked out a governor as he exits his lair, I've talked to a lot of wonderful people and made some great contacts for the future. And I have tons of great videotape that's produced some very entertaining productions that have given a lot of people a laugh or two to relieve the stress of their days.

So no, even if the worst happens and Simon loses, I will have enjoyed one of my life's more entertaining interludes. And if we can pull this off, well, I will feel an enormous amount of pride in what I've helped accomplish.

If trying to convince people this election was a simple formality, a coronation of King Davis for continued rule, I wouldn't care one whit about your views; after all, you have them just as I have mine.

But it seems to me that you, in your Murphy-style pessimism, are undermining Simon's chances by posting these bleak diatribes.

Is there any reason not to hold them until after the election? If Bill Simon loses, I will cheerfully accept your "I told you sos". If he wins, what will you do?

D

PS For an election that will be decided by turnout, the left seems awfully apathetic and the right charged up. A Simon victory scenerio where the left doesn't vote and the right does strikes me as completely doable with the right management. That's why grass roots politics exists in the first place, after all.

[KeyBored]

"The question is, will those that have followed Simon down that well worn road to defeat learn anything from the loss or are they doomed to repeat their mistakes for generations yet to come."

Lemme see if I have this:

1. Conservatives should abandon someone in a primary that is more in line with their view, in favor of someone that can win.

2. They can then rejoice in the fact that, although they've helped elect a liberal (maybe someone even more liberal that the democreep), by gosh he's got that "R" after his name so he's a-ok.

We did exactly that in NY - in '94 when Pataki first ran.
And taxes have continued to rise . . .
And companies have continued to flee the state . . .
And freedoms have continued to erode away . . .

And conservatives benefitted . . . how?

[Coop]

And, of course, it's the perfect excuse for apathy, for not doing anything, for not bothering to go to the polls.

Ding ding ding ding!! We have a winner.

DD, the difference between you and CT is that you're someone who goes out and actually gets involved. CT simply lectures us common folk. Although I do give him credit. He's toned down on the yelling (although the ringing in my ears still hasn't quite subsided.)

But you've gotta admire him, going out on a limb to pick the extremely well funded favorite! :-)

[Lx]

You know, I used to think you had a valid opinion. Now I know that all you are is a pontificator and you will join my own private ignore list of your type.

Pontificators are easy to spot. Ever word they write is dripping with their own cleverness and self view that they and they alone have a valid opinion on whatever thread they've graced by their appearance. In fact, most pontificators would probably lock each thread they posted to if they could. After all, in their mind, everything that needed to be said was said. By them. In the pontificator's mind, there's no other reason to continue the thread unless the lesser posters limit their responses to telling the pontificator how brilliant they are. That is acceptable to them. One clear hallmark of a pontificator is that they never take a controversial stance.

If you were saying that you thought Simon was winning, I might at least give you credit for taking a risky stand, but with Simon down, how much risk are you taking? None, it's just a little vehicle for you to dazzle us with your cleverness.

[eureka!]

$60 million = 40 or so % for an incumbent that is loathed. Yes, it is too early to throw in the towel on this one...

[Coop]

Nicely done.

But hey, at least CT didn't YELL AT YOU!!! :-)

[NormsRevenge]

DUMP Davi$

[Saundra Duffy]

Good retort to Common Tator! You da man! For victory & freedom!!!