Simon Could Still Win This - He’s pulled out from behind before

NRO ^ | November 5, 2002 | Mark Joseph

[gubamyster]

ping

[kinghorse]

We have a winner in the questionable formation of a sentence award for today.

[NormsRevenge]

Cool! Thanks!!!

Dump Davi$

[eureka!]

Anecdotal evidence also suggests a surprise for Grayout. Thanks for the post...

[MP5]

We have a winner in the questionable formation of a sentence award for today.

LOL

[Asclepius]

... Much will hinge on turnout ...

Bloody hell. Turn out. Turn out. Turn out. Have we all become so partisan and knee-jerk-reflexive that message means nothing, that every election hinges solely on mobilizing the the party faithful?

I curse the emptiness of our age.

Yes, I voted.

[ER_in_OC,CA]

I voted for Simon in the primary and again today, but I think he has only about a 10% chance of winning.

IMHO, what has to happen for Simon to win:

Teachers Unions
Their stated disgust for Davis has to materialize in low teacher turnout and/or votes for Simon or Camejo. The teachers have hurt Davis already in that they don't seem to be organizing a GOTV effort on his behalf.

Bandwagoners
A chunk of CA voters flow with a tide. These folks need to decide they don't like Davis and to vote instead for spoiler Simon or just throw in "play votes" for the Lib or Green Candidate.

Bay Area
Polling has shown Davis' core strength to be in the Bay Area. We're gonna need some dismal turnout there as well as the vegan-crowd voting for Camejo.

Repub Showup
Repubs need to forget the conventional wisdom that this race is over and vote for Simon. A good sign is that they'd already done so in the primary election.

Latino Split
Latinos voted huge for Davis 4 years ago. The "official latino community spokespersons" are mad at Davis for several reasons (including one that I agree with Davis on -- his veto of the illegal alien driver's license). They've threatened to not push hard for Davis and Simon has made an effort to get votes from Latinos. If Simon can get a few more votes here than expected, and Davis can lose votes to Camejo, this can help.

Bottom Line: Davis is the heavy favorite. Our hope is that Davis' voters are overconfident and don't show up.

[clintonh8r]

...He's pulled out from behind before..."

You're thinking of Michael Huffington.

[governsleastgovernsbest]

At first, I thought the headline was referring to Mike Taylor - that hairdressing Republican candidate in Montana, who withdrew (whoops) only to plunge back in (uh, sorry) from his race.

[Coop]

Heavy favorite? I don't know how any incumbent struggling to stay in the mid 40s in the polls could be considered a heavy favorite.

Is Simon the underdog? Yeah. Can he win this thing? Yep!

While Gov. Jeb Bush has been enjoying multiple visits from the First Brother, Simon has had to largely settle for obscure Cabinet members.

This part isn't true. Simon benefitted from five separate fundraising events with President Bush. I bet that's more than any politician in the country except Jeb.

[trebb]

"He's pulled out from behind before"

San Francisco Bars?

[Democratshavenobrains]

Simon is done. I hate to state the obvious, but Riordan would have been the better candidate. I'd rather have a RINO than this Clinton clone.

[luckodeirish]

An amazing thing just occured here at work. A long time dem just dropped by my office to tell me he had cast his vote for SIMON, as he said he "just could not vote for Davis". Said his wife was doing the same thing. Let's see how this turns out...

[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

Good catch!

I'll ping my list.

Memories:

California Power Crisis animations featuring Governor Gray Davis

AND......................

...to see what Davis has done... - CLICK HERE

and see how France has superseded California under Gray Davis' leadership.

 

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[Ernest_at_the_Beach]

south and Davis think their money has bought their election!

Gary South (DAVIS CAMPAIGN GUY) pops off in SF Paper about BUYING the election!

Lets show them they are wrong!

GOTV

[disgruntledinCa]

...He's pulled out from behind before..."

You're thinking of Michael Huffington.

BWAHAHAHAHA!!

[ER_in_OC,CA]

You wrote:
"I'd rather have a RINO than this Clinton clone."

I'm not so sure I agree. Frankly, I don't see enough difference between Riordan and Davis on policy for me to agree with you.

Mitigating factor: Unless Simon wins and institutes huge reforms, Davis will be left holding the bag of an insane, HUGE, WHOPPING, Budget Deficit.

In my weird logic, if a real conservative can't win, I'd rather a Dem be the one raising taxes than a Repub like Riordan. The Republican reputation against raising taxes gives us the most traction in this state, since Davis has stolen the "tough-on-crime" issue (a la Clinton) and the CA electorate loves abortion-on-demand. If a Repub lost us the "no new taxes" issue, our party would be in even worse shape in CA (is this possible?)

Of course, if Riordan were on the ballot, I'd certainly be voting for him.

Our future hope for CA is that the Green Party can continue to grow and steal votes in Santa Monica, San Francisco, Santa Barbara, Marin County, etc.

Of course, it would help if our party leadership would come together instead of being in this fraticidal war. And furthermore, it would help if our state party would better articulate conservative ideas.

Just some rambling thoughts...

[Pagey]

Most of the people I do business with are voting for Bill Simon, because we know what a piece of waste "RED" Davis truly is.(I do believe that Simon's Handlers/Chief of Staff, or whoever ran his campaign and made several bad judgements, should receive a public whipping.)

[Wolfstar]

It's lunchtime in California as I post this. Am now on my way to vote for Simon and a straight Republican ticket (I live close to where I work). Anything is possible, but I frankly doubt Simon will win. But you must forgive my pessimism. The Marxist 'Rats in Sacramento vastly expanded the former central L.A. 35th Cong. district southward to protect Maxine Waters from an influx of Hispanics in that old district. So I am now on the southern-most edge of the new 35th (memo to self: move!) and have to see Mad Max's name disgracing my ballot today. Yuch!!!!