Skip to comments.New poll shows Trump could be a strong challenger for Romney in NH (Statistical tie)
Posted on 04/05/2011 11:51:01 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
TUESDAY UPDATE: TRUMP TROUBLE FOR MITT? Donald Trump cuts into Mitt Romney's otherwise strong lead in New Hampshire among Republican potential presidential primary contenders, according to a new poll released on Tuesday.
North Carolina-based and Democratic-leaning Public Policy Polling says it surveyed 384 "usual New Hampshire Republican primary voters" from March 31 through April 3. It says it found that without Trump included in the list of potential contenders, Romney is supported by 32 percent of those polled, more than double the support for Mike Huckabee, at 15 percent, with Newt Gingrich at 13 percent, Sarah Palin and Ron Paul at 10 percent each, Tim Pawlenty and Michele Bachmann at 4 percent each and Haley Barbour at 2 percent with 12 percent undecided.
But when businessman Trump is added to the list, Romney's lead diminishes, according to PPP.
It says it found that Romney leads Trump 27 to 21 percent, with Gingrich and Huckabee at 12 percent each and the others remaining in single digits.
The margin of error for the poll is 5 percent, according to PPP, meaning the Romney-Trump numbers are close to a virtual tie.
"Trump's flogging of the birther conspiracy theory of late has gotten him a lot of traction," PPP said. PPP found that 51 percent of Republican voters nationwide and 42 percent of GOP votes in New Hampshire, doubt President Barack Obama's citizenship. It says that Trump, with 22 percent, and Romney, with 21 percent, are virtually tied among those who do not believe Obama was born in the United States.
While the poll indicates that Trump challenges Romney's lead among GOP voters in New Hampshire, it also shows that Romney and other potential candidates are viewed far more favorably than Trump in the Granite State.
Trump, in fact, has the worst, favorable-unfavorable split among the 14 potential candidates tested.
Trump is viewed favorably by 41 percent and unfavorably by 43 percent of those polled with 16 percent undecided.
Romney has the strong numbers. He is viewed favorably by 68 percent, unfavorably by 19 percent with 13 percent undecided.
The potential candidate with the second highest favorability rating is Rudolph Giuliani, with 62 percent, while 22 percent viewed him unfavorably.
Third is Ron Paul with a 53-21 percent favorable-unfavorable split and 26 percent undecided.
Asked how Trump can be so close to Romney in the "horse race" despite a huge difference in favorability ratings, PPP spokesman Tom Jensen said, "People who like Romney and Gingrich and Palin and the like won't necessarily vote for them." But he said Trump supporters are more dedicated and committed to vote for him.
Part of PPP's poll focused on Romney's support in 2006 for a Massachusetts health care law mandating the purchase of health insurance.
PPP says its poll found that 61 percent of those polled opposed a health insurance mandate at the state level, while 14 percent favored a mandate with the other 25 percent undecided.
But the poll showed that even among those who said they would not be willing to vote for a candidate that supported a mandate, without Trump in the mix, Romney leads Huckabee, 27 to 14 percent, with 13 percent for Gingrich, 12 percent for Paul and 10 percent for Palin, with the others in single digits.
When Trump is added to the list, those who say they oppose a mandate are split between Trump, with 23 percent, and Romney, with 22 percent, with Gingrich at 13 percent, Huckabee at 11 percent and the others in single digits.
PPP said this phenomenon "suggests that as more of these voters are reminded by Ronney's opponents of his past actions on health care, the lower he will fall."
Trump vs. Romney = Iran vs. Iraq = CBS vs. NBC = Notre Dame vs. Penn State.
If Trump beats Romney in NH, Romney is done.
Think about it.
Romney wouldn’t stand a chance against Trump.
Trump is a street fighter and goes all in.
Romney is a crumpet eating fair weather republican.
That said, Trump’s not running so it don’t matter.
Same if Trump beats Huckster.
Why are the biggest losers on the top of the list??? Ooooops the Daily Kos, that explains it.
Trump/Christy, naaaaaaah! It’ll never happen.
Huck has no chance in NH.
You got to look at each early state as its own entity.
Iowa, Romney has no chance so he needs NH.
NH, Huck has no chance so he needs IA.
Bachmann in IA and Trump in NH might block them both in their respective states. Then SC would chose between Bachmann, Trump, or other.
The people are FED-UP!
Are you sure he’s not running? He has the one thing all presidental candidates need: a huge ego.
In this “anything could happen” year, Trump may have decided its worth a shot.
He may also have other motivations for running than winning.
Economicly, Trump is closely tied to the Tea Party. And which candidate does Trump hurt the most? Romney, Mr. anti-Tea Party when it comes to economics. By splitting the Romney/RINO vote, Trump will open to door to an actual economic conservative (or at least help prevent a repeat of last cycle, where the conservatives split their vote and we ended up with McRino).
Wow, that REALLY makes me feel better......
One way or another, it is a 100% certainty that Mitt Romney will not be the next president of the United States.
Whether this is because he (1) wisely choses not to run, (2) drops tens of millions of his own money into losing a primary, or (3) loses the general election to Barack Hussein Obama I cannot say.
But he will not be president.
It might be good news for Palin. If Romney has no mo’ in NH, I doubt Trump or Romney can do much damage out West.
Other than those states where “sister wives” is a common term, you mean?
This is nothing more than a poll for this period in time. Now we even inject the opposite ends of the MOE to get a tie... lol.
....The margin of error for the poll is 5 percent, according to PPP, meaning the Romney-Trump numbers are close to a virtual tie.....
Interesting polling developements out in the lands of early primaries. Huckabee leading in Iowa and South Carolina and Romney in NH.
I’d vote for Donald Trump. Is he perfect? Not even close, but my country needs a President who can lead within the guidelines of the U. S. Constitution. The economy, morality, religion, education, environmentalism, etc., etc. are going to be moot points if we continue down the road to Communism.
He does this every four years and has for the last 20 years. He employs a PR firm that helps him keep his name out there to enhance the image of his companies. He wrote about it in one of his books.
Trump loves being rich and the White House would cramp his lifestyle with the restrictions being President imposes on your life.
Romney’s wasting time.
Im glad to see Trump in. No matter what he is a street fighter and doesnt hold back. Refreshing after a yr of Romney and the slimey huckster.