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In Many Different Communities, No Clear Leader for GOP Nomination (Good news for Gov. Palin)
The PBS News Hour ^ | May 18, 2011 | Dante Chinni

Posted on 05/18/2011 12:55:31 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

The 2012 election cometh, and as of right now the Republican field of candidates seems unsettled at best.

Before it has even formed, the herd has been thinned. Witness former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee's step out of the election pool on Saturday or, to a somewhat less serious extent, Donald Trump's exit on Monday.

And beyond the shrinking presidential cast there is the splintered nature of the party. Normally, 18 months before a presidential election, there is look and feel to the Republican pool -- a front-runner, a conservative choice, a libertarian alternative.

But a Patchwork Nation analysis of a recent Pew Research Center poll shows just how complicated the terrain is for the GOP as the clock ticks down to primary season.

Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney does well in five of our county types, including the swing-voting Monied Burbs. Huckabee, who just left the field, does well in four, including the aging Emptying Nests. And former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin leads in two of the county types, including the socially conservative Evangelical Epicenters.

But this field is very much undecided. In five of the 12 county types, the leader is actually "none" -- among a list that includes the above candidates plus former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels. And in two county types that Republicans usually win and really need to do well in for 2012 -- the formerly growing Boom Towns and the small town Service Worker Centers -- the vote is divided three ways.

(CHART AT LINK)

And looking at these numbers, 18 months out, leaves two distinct impressions. One, there seems to be plenty of room for new entries. And, two, despite any misgivings Republicans have about Barack Obama, winning votes and unifying GOP support in the different communities Patchwork Nation studies does not look easy.

A Walk Through The Field

Patchwork Nation's 12 types of county offer an interesting way to parse the electorate headed into a presidential election year. As we have noted in more in-depth reportage, many of Patchwork Nation's community types tend to vote Republican, but they come at their vote from different angles -- for some the issue is primarily straight economics, for some it is cultural, for some it is national defense.

Here's a look at what the Pew numbers suggest about the 2012 GOP field:

Mitt Romney: Romney runs strongest with two community types. He is the favorite of 21 percent in the Monied Burbs and of about 30 percent in the collegiate Campus and Careers counties. What do those places have in common? They have ridden out the recession fairly well. The unemployment rates in them are below 9 percent and the relatively high incomes in them have been a stabilizing force. And they are not culturally conservative. Romney, it's no surprise, also does well in the Mormon Outposts, where he is the favorite of 37 percent of those surveyed -- though the polling sample for those counties is too small to be statistically significant.

His weaknesses, however, are notable. He is running in third -- in some cases a distant third -- in the Evangelical Epicenters, the aging Emptying Nests and the African-American heavy Minority Central counties, which are largely based in the South. Those counties have not fared so well in the recession. And they are not only important in the early primary season states of Iowa and South Carolina. They will play a big role in November of 2012.

(County Map by Type at Link)

Sarah Palin: She has yet to even announce she is running, but with Huckabee out of the race, Palin's appeal to cultural conservatives may help her immensely. Even with Huckabee in, Palin was the leader in the Evangelical Epicenters and in the Service Worker Centers. But she now may also rise to a "front-runner" position in the Emptying Nests, where there is a strong vein of cultural conservatism.

If she decides to run, that combination of factors could make her a formidable candidate in the early nominating contests of 2012.

Newt Gingrich: He is not much of a force in any of the Patchwork Nation types -- he is single digits in eight of the types -- but he does seem to be doing relatively well in the Military Bastions in and around military installations, where he holds a slight lead over his opponents with 13 percent of the vote. He is still far behind "none" in those counties, however, which has 29 percent of the vote there.

Its dangerous to make too much of those numbers -- the sample of those polled in the Bastions was, again, extremely low -- but the numbers at least suggest Gingrich could be viewed as the "national security" candidate, at least for now. And that could work to his advantage if terrorism again becomes an issue in the first post-bin Laden election.

Going Forward

Most interesting, however, may be that some of the big names that could rise to the top of the GOP list are scoring very low in this admittedly early poll. The best Pawlenty does anywhere in this poll (where there is a sizable survey sample) is the Evangelical Epicenters, where he rings in at about 6 percent. Daniels does best in the big city Industrial Metropolis counties, were he is near 5 percent.

It is still very early, of course. But the mixed feelings about the current GOP field show some real challenges for a party that has had some fault lines exposed in recent years.

The natural, cultural Main Street/Wall Street/Church Street split in the Republican Party has been heightened, by the nation's economic troubles.

The vote in the Evangelical Epicenters, is driven heavily by cultural factors. But places like Service Worker Centers have struggled for such a long time now -- they were hit early in the recession and are still suffering -- that they may feel a bit of anger at the top tax brackets. Meanwhile, the moderate Republicans in the Monied Burbs, may welcome a traditional GOP candidate who argues that a rising tide raises all boats.

People living in each of those county types may be conservative, but they be demanding different "conservative" solutions in 2012. And they may each have their own candidate.

Add in the fact that there is such a high rate of disapproval in these poll numbers, with "none" as the biggest vote getter in Minority Central, Immigration Nation and, importantly, in the Boom Towns and Service Worker Centers and there is one big conclusion.

It's early. And President Obama has his troubles with an election that is likely to be focused on a struggling economy. But the fight for the Republican nomination will likely be one tough battle and November 2012 looks no easier.


TOPICS: Campaign News; Parties; Polls; State and Local
KEYWORDS: 2012; newt; palin; romney
What do you think?
1 posted on 05/18/2011 12:55:35 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
ineluctable

2 posted on 05/18/2011 12:56:47 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Islamophobia: The fear of offending Muslims because they are prone to violence.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Potential GOP Candidate Support (Percent)
Community Type Huckabee Palin Romney None
Monied 'Burbs 10 9.7 21.5 19.5
Minority Central 20.3 13 10.1 23.2
Evangelical Epicenters 16.7 19.2 12.8 15.4
Tractor Country 31.3 6.3 12.5 6.3
Campus and Careers 15.7 8.6 30 14.3
Immigration Nation 16.7 11.9 10.7 20.2
Industrial Metropolis 11.2 9.1 13.4 30.2
Boom Towns 14.5 12.8 16.2 23
Service Center 12.8 17.9 14.3 18.4
Empty Nests 23.2 17.1 11 20.7
Military Bastions 11.1 4.4 11.1 28.9
Mormon Outposts 12.5 0 37.5 25

3 posted on 05/18/2011 1:01:06 PM PDT by onyx (If you truly support Sarah Palin and want to be on her busy ping list, let me know!)
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To: The Cajun; Al B.; sarah fan UK; RedMDer; musicman; Victoria Delsoul; gardencatz; Gargantua; ...
Sarah Palin: She has yet to even announce she is running, but with Huckabee out of the race, Palin's appeal to cultural conservatives may help her immensely. Even with Huckabee in, Palin was the leader in the Evangelical Epicenters and in the Service Worker Centers. But she now may also rise to a "front-runner" position in the Emptying Nests, where there is a strong vein of cultural conservatism.

If she decides to run, that combination of factors could make her a formidable candidate in the early nominating contests of 2012.

4 posted on 05/18/2011 1:06:20 PM PDT by onyx (If you truly support Sarah Palin and want to be on her busy ping list, let me know!)
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To: onyx

Remember everybody: That poll is before Gomer Huckleberry pulled out. Who gets his support with those groups (with or without his endorsement) Willard or Sarah?


5 posted on 05/18/2011 1:09:41 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet (How do you starve an Obama supporter? Hide his food stamps under his work boots.)
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To: onyx
WTF? (Whatswith the Font)
6 posted on 05/18/2011 1:10:39 PM PDT by gov_bean_ counter (Put Obie in a dress and call him "The Last Queen of Scotland".)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; 1_Rain_Drop; 4woodenboats; Abbeville Conservative; abigail2; ABQHispConservative; ..
Sarah Palin: She has yet to even announce she is running, but with Huckabee out of the race, Palin's appeal to cultural conservatives may help her immensely. Even with Huckabee in, Palin was the leader in the Evangelical Epicenters and in the Service Worker Centers. But she now may also rise to a "front-runner" position in the Emptying Nests, where there is a strong vein of cultural conservatism.

If she decides to run, that combination of factors could make her a formidable candidate in the early nominating contests of 2012.

OOOOPS! This is from PBS!


*GAME ON*

The Place for Conservatives The Place for Conservatives The Place for Conservatives The Place for Conservatives
PREFECT© graphic by RedMDer *GAME ON*!


7 posted on 05/18/2011 1:13:41 PM PDT by onyx (If you truly support Sarah Palin and want to be on her busy ping list, let me know!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Just a repeat.........


To: Clint N. Suhks

JMHO, with the current media climate, any REAL conservative making a statement of candidacy before Christmas ain’t playing with a full deck.

...and I’m not real sure that there are that many who would be able to stand up to “only” a year of the sh**storm that the libs and (mostly) their media pimps are just straining to unleash.

I’m not so sure that all we’re seeing right now is the Whack-a-Mole part of this election campaign, and we’re just getting the novices and wannabes out of the way.

67 posted on Wednesday, May 18, 2011 12:07:36 PM by Unrepentant VN Vet ((612 and a wakeup) Truth, I know, always resides wherever brave men still have ammunition.)
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8 posted on 05/18/2011 1:20:21 PM PDT by Unrepentant VN Vet ((612 and a wakeup) Truth, I know, always resides wherever brave men still have ammunition.)
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To: onyx

Palin/Cain/West/Bachmann are my ‘Four Horsemen To End The Apocolypse’
The Apocolypse of the Maobama Admin that is.


9 posted on 05/18/2011 1:21:36 PM PDT by FlashBack ('0'bama: "Katrina on a Global Level")
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To: gov_bean_ counter
I'm still in FReepathon mode!

:)

10 posted on 05/18/2011 1:25:01 PM PDT by onyx (If you truly support Sarah Palin and want to be on her busy ping list, let me know!)
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To: onyx

This morning I was watching the news and they made it sound like Michelle might run.

If Michelle runs, I don’t think Sarah will (personally I think they are in “cahoots” about who will be the one).

It’s either Michelle or Sarah. I’d prefer Sarah, but if it’s Michelle, I’m in it ALL the way, just like I would be if it’s Sarah!

And I’m positive Sarah would be in for Michelle. I just pray they choose Lt. Col. Alan West as VP.


11 posted on 05/18/2011 1:25:09 PM PDT by NoGrayZone ("Islamophobia: The irrational fear of being beheaded.")
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To: FlashBack
CONSERVATIVES!
12 posted on 05/18/2011 1:26:15 PM PDT by onyx (If you truly support Sarah Palin and want to be on her busy ping list, let me know!)
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To: onyx

Yep...no more “media-picked” RINO’s!!!


13 posted on 05/18/2011 1:30:34 PM PDT by FlashBack ('0'bama: "Katrina on a Global Level")
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To: NoGrayZone
Interesting!! You could be right, but I think Sarah Palin is running regardless of what anyone else does. She's going to be on Hannity tonight and the promo says she's going to "assess" the field of candidates....

I think she has one more nasty, lamestream hit piece to handle --- that Joe McGuiness book --- and then it's off to the races for the thoroughbred!

14 posted on 05/18/2011 1:33:44 PM PDT by onyx (If you truly support Sarah Palin and want to be on her busy ping list, let me know!)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum

Sarah Is Indomitable

15 posted on 05/18/2011 2:10:28 PM PDT by trisham (Zen is not easy. It takes effort to attain nothingness. And then what do you have? Bupkis.)
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To: onyx

PBS???????

So used to hearing from so many with PDS around here lately .. this is refreshing ... thanks as always.


16 posted on 05/18/2011 2:12:50 PM PDT by jessduntno (Liberalism is socialism in a party dress. And just as masculine.)
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To: onyx; 2ndDivisionVet

Game on!

17 posted on 05/18/2011 2:15:42 PM PDT by RedMDer (restoration of our honor, dignity, and freedoms will save America. - Sarah Palin)
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To: NoGrayZone

And what Does a Bachmann run have to do with James A. Garfield? He’s the last Congressman to be directly elected President in 1880-something.


18 posted on 05/18/2011 2:21:33 PM PDT by JaguarXKE
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To: onyx
Governor Palin is up to something. She has been relatively quite while the second tier candidates assemble their circular firing squad. My guess is she will let the wannabes knock each other around then announce in a big way.

Stay tuned.

19 posted on 05/18/2011 2:24:09 PM PDT by gov_bean_ counter (Put Obie in a dress and call him "The Last Queen of Scotland".)
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To: JaguarXKE
In all honesty, Ms Bachmann’s legislative resume is thin. Lots of talk, little action. We can only speculate how she would govern. Twenty three foster children. God Bless her. Tax Attorney. You go girl. While laudable they don't tell us a darn thing about her ability to govern.
20 posted on 05/18/2011 2:27:28 PM PDT by gov_bean_ counter (Put Obie in a dress and call him "The Last Queen of Scotland".)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

To God’s ears....let it be!


21 posted on 05/18/2011 3:07:25 PM PDT by jennings2004 (Sarah Palin: "The bright light at the end of a very dark tunnel!")
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To: onyx
I think it will be either Sarah or Michelle, I can't see them running against each other, since they're both on the same team!

I truly hope it is Sarah, but these gals are 2 smart cookies and I guarantee, they are speaking.

As I've stated, I want Sarah as POTUS, Michelle is my 2nd. Those 2 are all for America and whats best for us. I do believe they have each others back.

Either way, we'll have a true American who can fix this crap we're in.....and getting deeper. Either one of them can cream barry, can't wait for the real debate.

22 posted on 05/18/2011 3:12:43 PM PDT by NoGrayZone ("Islamophobia: The irrational fear of being beheaded.")
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To: JaguarXKE

What the heck are you taking about?


23 posted on 05/18/2011 3:21:41 PM PDT by NoGrayZone ("Islamophobia: The irrational fear of being beheaded.")
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To: RedMDer

The reason that we are not to support Palin is the left hates her and they hated Reagan also?


24 posted on 05/18/2011 3:39:12 PM PDT by factmart
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To: factmart

Pretty much. We will pick our own candidates this time.


25 posted on 05/18/2011 3:42:14 PM PDT by RedMDer (restoration of our honor, dignity, and freedoms will save America. - Sarah Palin)
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To: onyx

26 posted on 05/18/2011 3:44:53 PM PDT by RedMDer (restoration of our honor, dignity, and freedoms will save America. - Sarah Palin)
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To: NoGrayZone

I’m talking about the fact that, as much as I like Michelle Bachmann (and would vote for her over Bamby in a heartbeat), there hasn’t been a President elected who came straight from the House of Representatives since James A. Garfield. Not that it can’t happen, but historically Congress Critters don’t fair well in Presidential elections.


27 posted on 05/18/2011 3:45:04 PM PDT by JaguarXKE
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I think that what's been happening is that the retreads (Huckster, Mittens, Nootie) who have name recognition and are being flogged by the lamestream media, are imploding. They were never viable candidates in the first place. It clears the field for some real candidates. With the retreads out of the way, people like Sarah and Cain and Bachman will have a chance to be heard.
28 posted on 05/18/2011 3:47:02 PM PDT by JoeFromSidney (New book: RESISTANCE TO TYRANNY. A primer on armed revolt. Available form Amazon.)
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To: gov_bean_ counter

I concur! I like her as a person and I like her conservative bent - but you’re right - thin resume and what executive experience? Also, as I mentioned in another post here, there hasn’t been a Representative elected President from the House since James A. Garfield. Not impossible, but not historically very likely and having a thin resume doesn’t help.


29 posted on 05/18/2011 3:49:27 PM PDT by JaguarXKE
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To: onyx

I don’t see how that’s “good news” for Palin. It looks pretty dire to me.


30 posted on 05/18/2011 4:21:15 PM PDT by newzjunkey (Obama will be president until 2017.)
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To: RedMDer

The leftwing socialists are anticipating “OPEN” primaries to carry Mittens to the victory line as GOP nominee.

Since Ozero will not have a primary challenger, lots of lwftists to vote for our favorite RINO.

PALIN/West 2012
Bolton SoS


31 posted on 05/18/2011 4:34:48 PM PDT by newfreep (Palin/West 2012 - Bolton: Secy of State)
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To: RedMDer
PREFECT! ©


32 posted on 05/18/2011 4:36:11 PM PDT by onyx (If you truly support Sarah Palin and want to be on her busy ping list, let me know!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Nothing from Proletariat BS could be relevant.

Save your time to read something informative.


33 posted on 05/18/2011 4:43:20 PM PDT by editor-surveyor (Going 'EGYPT' - 2012!)
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To: newfreep

The “OPEN” primaries need to be a thing of the past. It is ludicrous to have them when selecting a nominee of any party. And yes the rats will use them to their advantage of course.


34 posted on 05/18/2011 4:50:21 PM PDT by RedMDer (restoration of our honor, dignity, and freedoms will save America. - Sarah Palin)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I think it may be good news for Palin, or anyone else.

It won’t be handed on a silver platter. It does take work.


35 posted on 05/18/2011 4:53:13 PM PDT by dforest
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To: newzjunkey

Why would FOX let Palin “assess” the field of GOP candidates if she is going to run?

That would be odd. I wonder how she would assess herself? Will there be equal time for other potentials to “assess” the GOP field?


36 posted on 05/18/2011 4:58:22 PM PDT by dforest
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To: indylindy

Maybe because she hasn’t declared yet, no one knows whether she will and she does get paid to be an analyst for FOX. My guess is they actually expect their employees to work for their paycheck.

Cindie


37 posted on 05/18/2011 11:38:23 PM PDT by gardencatz (Proud mom US Marine! It can't always be someone else's son.)
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