Skip to comments.Romney's got the numbers but is a GOP surprise coming? (Thinks Jeb or Mitch will be 2012's Palin)
Posted on 03/20/2012 6:21:44 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
With Mitt Romney increasing his lead over Rick Santorum with a victory in Puerto Rico over the weekend, it is likely, that at the very least, Romney will hold his own or increase his lead over Santorum in Tuesdays Illinois primary.
Mitt Romney now holds a lead of more than 2-1 over Rick Santorum (521-253) -- positioning him as the clear and indeed most likely Republican nominee for president.
But while Romney has won 55% of the delegates thus far and indeed, it seems clear that neither Santorum on his own or Gingrich will be able to individually stop the former Governor Romneys share of the total popular vote cast is well below 45 percent.
Meanwhile, a Washington Post analysis out this morning shows that neither Romney nor Santorum has inspired much commitment from Republican primary voters and neither candidate has cut into the others base of support.
Going forward, it can be expected that the White House will continue to do what it has done recently-- escalate their attacks on all the Republicans and on the Republican Party which now garners a 10% lower rating than the Democrats in recent polling.
Notwithstanding the Republicans demonstrable weakness, however, the former Massachusetts governor is within striking distance of the president -- with President Obama holding a narrow 4% or less lead in the horse race for President.
Thus, we can expect Mitt Romney and his fellow Republican candidates -- when they get tired of attacking one another to attack an increasingly unpopular President Obama, whose vulnerability in the polls became clearer and clearer last week.
Indeed, with two-thirds of the electorate saying that the country is headed in the wrong direction, the president's overall job approval is once again below 50%, and he is garnering decidedly negative ratings for his handling of the issue of ever-increasing gas prices.
This suggests that an election that has already been the most negative in American history will become more negative, and arguably less connected to the issues that matter.
To be sure, various GOP leaders have spoken at length about why they hope to resolve their nomination well before their convention opens in Tampa on August 27th to avoid further division and disarray.
And indeed, given the increasingly negative rating for both Mr. Romney and the Party, one can understand why conventional wisdom would suggest that a long drawn out process would be fatal for the Republican party, and Mr. Romney should he ultimately receive the nomination.
Still, as former Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour said this week, it would not be necessarily bad for the party to be deadlocked going into the Republican Convention.
And while the four leading candidates will almost certainly do everything they can do to resolve things, whether it be through deals, alliances, or horse-trading, there is one other possibility.
And that possibility is that a new candidate can enter the race.
Let us recall how the surprise selection of Sarah Palin as John McCains running mate four years ago galvanized a party that had been given up for dead and a campaign that had been given up for lost before the Convention.
However, history suggests that a new candidate-- whether it be Jeb Bush, Chris Christie, or Mitch Daniels -- could well galvanize a party that has become increasingly dispirited and divided.
To be sure, with Governor Romney doing better and better in delegate counts, it is still unlikely that this scenario will be reached, but it is one to take seriously.
It is political malpractice to claim that it was Palin’s “newness” that had her successfully dragging McCain into the lead—until he took Schmidt’s dreadful advice and suspended his campaign, that is!
She’s not so new now, yet she still is the one exitement-generating candidate the GOP has.
Yeah! Daniels! Elmer Fudd will galvanize the party.
Stay out da Bushes. MilqueToast Daniels would get beaten like a drum.
I am sick and tired of the same perople running and running. It has to stop somewhere.
No Jeb Bush. After Terri Schiavo I am surprised he has the guts to run for anything. I will not vote for Jeb. I don’t want Daniels either.
Newsies have started pushing Condi Rice for the VP slot.
[That would be as bad as Jeb. She was a disaster as SoS, especially with Israel.]
Oh, my goodness. That’s HORRIBLE!!!
Our electorate is surrounded by idiots.
It’s not going to happen. A brokered/contested convention is not going to produce a candidate that has not gone through the primary process. Our candidate is going to be either Romney, Santorum or Newt. I am supporting Newt, largely because I really just don’t like Mitt or Rick at all. Newt is the best available option in my view, and the only one that can challenge the establishment media and change the dynamics of the race. Unfortunately, unless Gingrich can really start connecting with GOP primary voters big time in the next couple of weeks, we are going to get Romney the chameleon.
I wouldn’t vote for Romney if he put me on the ticket
Jeb Bush are you kidding - no way. We have had enough of that family.
Jeb Bush are you kidding - no way. We have had enough of that family.
Don't let them pick our candidates.
1968, 1976, 1980
Ronald Reagan isn’t “new” anymore. The bloom is off the rose. Yeah, I’ve heard that stuff before.
Palin isn’t “new”. I disagree. In 2008, she was a VP pick who was backstabbed by Schmidt and Wallace. Now she is free to chart her own course (whatever it might be) and control her own destiny.
If this is going down the way I think it will (and considering the LOW turnout...Illinois is a flop) then the GOP, from leadership to rank-and-file, will have to have a SERIOUS “COME TO JESUS” moment.
I hope Mutt does pick someone like Christie or Bush, so I can vote against them both.
This campaign is really making me hate Romney’s wife too. I see her coming up the stage to talk and I cringe. I know that the wife should not matter and if Romney was a decent candidate than I would STFU, but since he stinks, she does too. I despise her so much.
I wouldnt vote for Romney if he put me on the ticket
Oh God thank you for that post. I really needed a good laugh and you accomplished that. Your post is incredible. I loved it. Knowing deep down that Romney is our nominee was making me mighty depressed, but your post gave me such a great chuckle. Man that was awesome!!! Thanks!!!
THANK YOU !!!!!!!! s/ Barack
Even if Mittens could get Mother Teresa—were she still alive—as VP, I doubt that would help him.
If Romney wins, he will probably pick a Southerner, since he has little support in the South outside of Florida—someone like Lindsey Graham.
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