Skip to comments.Mitt Romney's Poll Surge Might Be Bigger Than It Looks
Posted on 05/15/2012 9:49:54 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The latest CBS News/New York Times poll shows President Barack Obama and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in a dead heat in the race for the White House.
Given that Obama has had a relatively good week and Romney something of a bad one, this poll is a real shocker. Asked for whom they would vote were the election held today, 46 percent of the nearly 600 registered voters surveyed said Romney while 43 percent said Obama. Given that the error margin is plus or minus four points, it looks like the race is all tied up.
Actually, Romney may be in better shape than the poll suggests. The same survey conducted in April showed each man with 46 percent of the vote while the polls from March and February showed the president ahead.
What is particularly interesting is this is a poll of registered voters, meaning it's a survey representing the entire universe of those who may cast ballots in the upcoming election. Thanks to things like "motor voter," there are far more Democrats in the pool of registered voters than Republicans and, unlike surveys of so-called "likely voters," many of them may not bother to vote. It is not too much of an inference, therefore, to think that Obama may be losing the countryand that's because he has failed to get a handle on the nation's economic troubles.
Unemployment is down from where it had been under Obama, to 8.1 percent, but that's not because the economy is creating jobs. It's because, as this simple analysis shows, large numbers of people have simply stopped looking for work. "In April," wrote Tyler Durden on Zerohedge.com, "the number of people not in the labor force rose by a whopping 522,000 from 87,897,000 to 88,419,000," which he says is the highest number ever recorded. The labor force participation rate, meaning the people who are working or looking for work, is now at 64.3 percent, a 30-year low.
With numbers like that, with Obama having wiped out 30 years of job creation under presidents of both parties, is it any surprise that 62 percent of respondents in the CBS News/New York Times poll "cited the economy as the most important issue in the presidential election"?
"Concern over the budget deficit ranked a distant second at 11 percent, followed by health care at 9 percent. Seven percent picked same-sex marriage, 4 percent cited foreign policy and 2 percent chose immigration," according to an analysis of the numbers conducted by CBS.
The response of the White House and Obama's campaign to the numbers has been to attack the way the survey was conductedwhich is really their only choice since they can't dispute what the numbers say. The president's deputy campaign manager, Stephanie Cutler, told NBC's Chuck Todd, "We can't put the methodology of that poll aside, because the methodology was significantly biased." When pressed, Cutler called the sample "biased."
Maybe so, but that doesn't get around the fact that 67 percent of respondentsremember these are registered voters, not likely votersrated the condition of the national economy as either "fairly bad" or "very bad." And 63 percent said they thought things would stay the same or get worse.
Equally disturbing for the White House, and perhaps the reason why the Obama campaign, its political allies, and its friends in the media have suddenly unleashed the attack squad against the former governor, is that this same poll found Romney leading among independents, among men and among women, 46 percent to 44 percent for the presidentstill within the margin of error but an indication that any bounce the Democrats might have gotten over accusations the GOP was engaged in a "war on women" has dissipated.
Team Obama needs a new strategy. It doesn't take a college degree to figure out that just about the only thing left is to try and make Romney radioactive, which means a nasty and negative summer is in the offing. It will be interesting to see if the same journalists and Washington "deep thinkers" who call out the Republicans every time they say something uncomplimentary will be as hard on the Democrats as they "go nuclear" on Romney.
I support the Constitution.
Charles you are a decent preacher.
I always tell a joke when I walk into a house.
Or a truth.
Can't happen. The UN Secretary General can't be from one of he permanent members of the Security Council.
I thought they could vote to overrule that.
Well, he want’s it bad.
Obama is rolling over all the rules
I’m voting against both. See tagline
He took a BLOOD oath to put the LDS church first, so either he is a liar or an oath breaker.
Guaranteed he will do what his prophet tells him to do.
I have no issues with either Pentecostals or Southern Baptists.
I am fighting for conservatism. Romney ain’t it.
I Think we have ONE ENEMY
I support the Constitution.
- - - —
So do I, that applies to CONGRESS, not individual voters. Individual voters and (and should) have a religious test.
BTW, several states had a state religious test after the ratification. Look it up.
If you want to compromise your faith and vote for a cultist - go ahead. I’m not going to stop you.
But don’t tell me how to vote or try to guilt me into voting for a lying, pro-abortion, pro gun control liberal.
If you mean Satan, yes.
If you mean Obama, then we have TWO enemies. Romney and Obama.
I will never vote for Romney, I cannot deny my faith and conservative principles and I will sleep soundly for it.
This whole RMCF is the GOPs fault and I am shocked at the number of so called conservatives who are voting for a pro abortion, pro gun control statist.
I’m with JR on this one. NO ROMNEY NO WAY!!
Good night FRiend.
Obama is below 50% in every batlleground state and many secure Blue states and not by a little,by 5+ points. An incumbant doesn’t make that up, he is toast. His party knows it, his advisors know it, and they are in full panic mode!
Hope springs eternal in the human breast.
Obama hid his agenda behind “Hope & Change” and many people were suckered in. He never defined his agenda for the economy. except perhaps when a hot mike caught his comment to Joe the Plumber.
This socialist thug from Chicago had never run even a hot dog stand successfully before being anointed president. Now he has a record and every intelligent person has him figured out.
He is toast, unless America wants to morph into a Spain style socialist state. My daughter reports from Spain the situation on ground, and it is heart-breaking.
Voting third party isn’t standing for priciple. It’s avoiding making the unpleasant choice as to which of the only two realistic alternatives is better for the country, while feeling smug and self satisfied. It accomplishes nothing in the real world, but makes you feel good about yourself. Symbolism over substance. It’s a very liberal think to do when you get down to it.
Do you really think the Russians and Chinese want Obama to be Secretary General?
A-HA!! So THAT`S what Bob Beckel was doing in his pre-politics days!
This fake poll is to help Romney (like all fake polls).
Their GOAL? To re-elect Obama for Romney/Soros.
The author missed one obvious and important point: this was a poll of registered no likely voters, so it underestimates Romney’s lead by 2-3 extra points.
Au contraries, I predict right now something close to a 53 47 Romney victory, and a very large electoral victory.
Romney is where he is because he LIES and CHEATS.
And America already has a lying cheater.
Yeah, some of the coronets here are funny. I just came from a Tea Party/Liberty Group meeting where every speaker lamented the fact that Roomney was the candidate and every single one vowed to support him in every way possible.
Only Romney-Soros' FAKE TEA Parties back the Loser Romney.
Every REAL TEA-PARTY conservative will NOT VOTE
for the backstabbing bishop of gay marriage and deathcare.
Admittedly polls of "registered voters" don't show much, but we now have a trend-line. We could have a "race' where both the main candidates fall into the lower 30s, or even less, giving the various alternatives on the fringe a combined plurality.
“Obama will campaign to be the next Secretary General of the UN”
An even better reason to kick them out of the country.
“...the next time is always worse.”
We are trying to take over the Republican party and we are having some success with that.
I have a lot of admiration for Bush, fils but his “compassionate conservatism” was not a good plan. And let’s not forget he too ran as, and at the start at least, governed as a “uniter not divider” who was going to reach across the aisle, etc.
Well, it cost us all a pretty penny and it did NOTHING for him politically.
But I still say this whole conservative counter revolution that’s going on is only 2- 2 1/2 years old. We need to keep working on the Republicans, I don’t think we can plan to build up some 3rd party, I just don’t see that working.
Unfortunately, a small minority of conservatives, those highlighted in this post, won't.
Gonna take an awful lot of write-ins for your guy who ain't running (for President anyway) to attain the WH. I predict that Mitt has 200,000,000 better odds of doing it than Rick does. Get over it - your candidate has.
I'd happily take Palin, DeMint, Perry, Cain, Bachmann, Santorum, or any of a hundred others over Romney. Unfortunately, the only candidate still running for the GOP nomination is the liberal former governor from Massachusetts. I don't like Romney. I don't trust him to be (in his own implausible words) "severely conservative". I don't want him to be our nominee. Still, our only choices are: Obama (the end of America as a free country), Romney (a continued slow decline for America), or a protest vote (which helps Obama but may warn the GOP leadership to play fair next time, maybe even to help all viable candidates to prepare). I'm not happy with any of the alternatives, but that's all we've got.
The state polls lag the national ones. The movement we’ve seen in the national polls this week should start showing up in state polls next week.
Yes, and Romney has had a surprising rise among women voters also.
Fox and Friends had a black representative on this morning ... sorry, can’t remember his name and he was aghast at Obama’s approval of gay marriage.
He was REALLY disturbed by it. But when asked if he would support Obama, of course, he said yes.
As he so eloquently put it, ‘somebody has to be president and I don’t know much about Romney.’ Duh.
Something was said about black voters staying home but that wasn’t pursued.
I’m looking forward to a Romney presidency. I think it will be great. The man is smart, a good businessman and smart enough to pick capable people for his staff.
I would be soooo deeply ashamed to post that I would rather have Obama than Romney. Really.
Good to hear it.
However that has no baring on an individual.
There is no such thing as a ballot with a pissed away vote.
You are just mad because some of us wont piss on your candidate.
Well, you are flat wrong. I was there, I’ve heard these people speak before, and I accurately reported what ws said. In fact, the FOUNDER of the Dayton Tea Party was there and he was supporting Romney. In fact he is the new chairman of the county GOP. So you do NOT know of wat you speak.
Mark it down. It will be a big GOP victory, bigger than Bush in 04.
Neck and neck in May (and the GOP hasn’t even formally given Mitt the nod and who knows who Mitt will name as a VP) is already bad juju for an incumbent who hopes to win. Also whether it is registered or “likely” voters matters: Nov. 2012 is shaping up to be a grand Democrat sit-out, for disappointed Democrats who never got their unicorn utopias.
ALMOST NO ONE IN THE TEA PARTY SUPPORTS ROMNEY and his DeathPanels/RomneyCARE/RomneyTAXES/etc.
Perhaps you are referring to the fake Tea Partys such as the one
which attacked Gov. Palin from Texas
created by RINO Romney and Hudack
or the FAKE polls in Texas "informing" Gov Palin not to run
created by PerryBOTs (and Romney?)
or the rumor-fomenting Sullivans in S.C.both in bed
with RINO Romney and RINO Perry
or the anti-Gov Palin rumors from PerryBOT Ken Crow in Iowa Lying that
Gov Palin would not Run for President
(Perry and Romney?)
You were with which ones?
Romney cannot even win New Hampshire OR Massachusetts.
They know him. They will never trust him again.
Reality 1: Romney up 8 in a state Obama won from McCain in 2008 (NC) and in a state that is heavy Christian evangelical;
Reality 2: Romney only down 2 im MI, when Obama carried that easily and should be up 10;
and Reality 3: every single GOP candidate, including Sarah Palin, has endorsed Romney.
Reality 4: Every person that spoke at the Tea Party/Liberty Group meeting the other night that I attended (about 30 stalwarts including the Founder of the Dayton Tea Party) endorsed Obama's unelection via Romney.
So, ObamaBOT, go back to DU.
Oh, I have. I now save my protest votes for whomever is running against Lindsey Graham.
I hope all those here that couldn't hold their nose and vote for McCain have learned their lesson.
Correct English hurts, doesn’t it.
Romney is going to get slaughtered.
The bottom lines on this poll are suspect as Hell. The MSM is going to eviscerate him. Other polls released just today show him trailing badly in swing states. Its 6 months out.
This is what they want from you. The want you to fall in line like nice little sheep.
Romney is a disaster. He is going to be slaughtered in Nov.
But, hey. Dont believe me. Just wait.