Skip to comments.Mitt Romney's Poll Surge Might Be Bigger Than It Looks
Posted on 05/15/2012 9:49:54 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
The latest CBS News/New York Times poll shows President Barack Obama and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in a dead heat in the race for the White House.
Given that Obama has had a relatively good week and Romney something of a bad one, this poll is a real shocker. Asked for whom they would vote were the election held today, 46 percent of the nearly 600 registered voters surveyed said Romney while 43 percent said Obama. Given that the error margin is plus or minus four points, it looks like the race is all tied up.
Actually, Romney may be in better shape than the poll suggests. The same survey conducted in April showed each man with 46 percent of the vote while the polls from March and February showed the president ahead.
What is particularly interesting is this is a poll of registered voters, meaning it's a survey representing the entire universe of those who may cast ballots in the upcoming election. Thanks to things like "motor voter," there are far more Democrats in the pool of registered voters than Republicans and, unlike surveys of so-called "likely voters," many of them may not bother to vote. It is not too much of an inference, therefore, to think that Obama may be losing the countryand that's because he has failed to get a handle on the nation's economic troubles.
Unemployment is down from where it had been under Obama, to 8.1 percent, but that's not because the economy is creating jobs. It's because, as this simple analysis shows, large numbers of people have simply stopped looking for work. "In April," wrote Tyler Durden on Zerohedge.com, "the number of people not in the labor force rose by a whopping 522,000 from 87,897,000 to 88,419,000," which he says is the highest number ever recorded. The labor force participation rate, meaning the people who are working or looking for work, is now at 64.3 percent, a 30-year low.
With numbers like that, with Obama having wiped out 30 years of job creation under presidents of both parties, is it any surprise that 62 percent of respondents in the CBS News/New York Times poll "cited the economy as the most important issue in the presidential election"?
"Concern over the budget deficit ranked a distant second at 11 percent, followed by health care at 9 percent. Seven percent picked same-sex marriage, 4 percent cited foreign policy and 2 percent chose immigration," according to an analysis of the numbers conducted by CBS.
The response of the White House and Obama's campaign to the numbers has been to attack the way the survey was conductedwhich is really their only choice since they can't dispute what the numbers say. The president's deputy campaign manager, Stephanie Cutler, told NBC's Chuck Todd, "We can't put the methodology of that poll aside, because the methodology was significantly biased." When pressed, Cutler called the sample "biased."
Maybe so, but that doesn't get around the fact that 67 percent of respondentsremember these are registered voters, not likely votersrated the condition of the national economy as either "fairly bad" or "very bad." And 63 percent said they thought things would stay the same or get worse.
Equally disturbing for the White House, and perhaps the reason why the Obama campaign, its political allies, and its friends in the media have suddenly unleashed the attack squad against the former governor, is that this same poll found Romney leading among independents, among men and among women, 46 percent to 44 percent for the presidentstill within the margin of error but an indication that any bounce the Democrats might have gotten over accusations the GOP was engaged in a "war on women" has dissipated.
Team Obama needs a new strategy. It doesn't take a college degree to figure out that just about the only thing left is to try and make Romney radioactive, which means a nasty and negative summer is in the offing. It will be interesting to see if the same journalists and Washington "deep thinkers" who call out the Republicans every time they say something uncomplimentary will be as hard on the Democrats as they "go nuclear" on Romney.
Sorry, but I really don’t believe you and I am
definitely not a Mittwit. As each day goes
by, myself and many others gain more confidence
that when the dust settles even the MSM won’t
be able to pull BO’s gonies out of the fire.
“Fags are really funny when they cry.”
I haven’t seen a fudgepacker cry in person but come Nov 2, I’m sure a certain kenyan will.
I dont think Obama wants to win.
He’s done his damage and laid the bombs.
He’s happy to skip down the road and let an R take the blast in 2014
Going gay has convinced me he really doesn’t want to win. They want to implement “Scorched Earth” between now and when they leave office.
As long as the election remains a referendum on Obama and his policies, Obama will lose and lose big. Even Obama can't defy the laws of political gravity.
I believe you are right,and they will lay at at our feet as best they can.
Once out of office, Obama will campaign to be the next Secretary General of the UN.
Except one thing.
He planted the bombs to go off in 2014.
Problem for Obama is most people will tune out for Summer and not tune back into politics until Sept./ Oct. So all the negative ads won’t be effective until then.
And in the meantime, Obama goes and gets people’s attention by announcing a position on gay marriage, of all things, which most people oppose.
The more Obama talks the more he sinks. Same thing happened with his pushing Obamacare.
With his baggage, Newt would have sunk any ticket!
Walker wins the recall and it is Katie bar the door in WI. If he wins the recall by more than 5, Obama will lose the entire Midwest including Minnesota and maybe even IL by default because they may not have the funds necessary to hold an election.
This turkey is cooked, he can't poll above fifty percent in his own family, not that half of them are eligible to vote anyway and I don't mean the kid. He is sinking quicker than the Titanic and may even be unable to ge his own vote.
Romney is allot of things, many of them I do not like. One thing he is not is stupid. It doesn't take a wizard to beat Obama with his abysmal record. It apparently has been shown that Willard knows how to bully a freak and who is a bigger freak than Obama?!
Our nation is at stake.
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Yes it is, which is why it is the most stupid thing that the GOPE put Romney up. We should have won this and we won’t.
Romney is a pale Obama. Nothing different. I stand on my principles and trust God.
Romney will be the end of the GOP AND this country...Obama will be the same.
But many here will never support Romney.
Which is OK, as long as Obama doesn’t win.
But, I’m a little concerned about these polls, reversibly speaking so to say.
I don’t want Romney to peak too soon, I don’t want him to get up on top of some mountain, the easier to throw him down.
I don’t want Obama to panic and do who knows what, not yet anyway.
I AM NOT A MITTBOT, I gave Santorum money and if we lose in November I’ll be the first (and probably the last) to say: It’s Perry’s fault.
(And, I live in NJ, we won’t even have our primary until next month!)
I kind of figured Mitt would be down a few, within the margin of error maybe, until maybe after Labor Day.
Because, as good as Romney could ever, ever be, do you think he’s good enough to sustain “Mittmentum” for 6 long months?
Exactly. I once said exactly the same thing, it would have been hypocritical of me to vote for George Bush after he made a deal with the democrats in congress and broke his pledge to not raise taxes. (Surprise!) The democrats never followed through with their promised spending cuts. I, and 19 million others, refused to cast a vote for Bush. We voted for Perot...and helped to elect Bill Clinton who walked into office with only 43% of the popular vote.
I learned my lesson. It's hypocritical to stand aside and let bad things happen. Never again will I cast a protest vote or stand aside and let the chips fall were they may.
Perry’s fault LOL!
I have spent 20 years witnessing to the LDS, countering their arguments and praying for them. To vote for one for POTUS would make me a hypocrite. I know too much about them to ever trust one for POTUS.
I held my breath and voted for W and for McCain. That is over. I can’t believe people think Romney will be ANY better than Obama. He won’t - his record proves that.
Large business lack the confidence to spend. They have $2 trillion dollars in cash, but refuse to spend in a vacuum. Once stability and reason are introduced, that money will rush into the economy.It will have a great effect.
He’ll need to have at least 6 points to overcome the vote fraud and the obamunist’s suspect overseas donations.