Skip to comments.Romney will Win Ohio + The Election (Vanity)
Posted on 10/10/2012 9:53:22 AM PDT by NY4Romney
So everyone, I'm new here. Hated Obama in 2008 but wasn't crazy about McCain and knew he would lose anyway. This year I was supporting Romney more as an Anti-Obama vote until the debate - which has fired me up and actually made me as much pro-Romney as Anti-Obama (which I suspect is the case around the country). I'm also a huge statistics wonk, and I watch polls, trends, demographics, etc. Until the debate, I figured the election would be close and Obama would squeak out a win. Right now, though, I think that Obama will probably lose and here's my analysis as to why:
1. Starting with 2008, due to redistricting, if Obama won the same states it would be Obama 359 to Romney 179.
2. Give back Nebraska's district, as well as Indiana. Romney: 191
3. NC and FL are no longer that competitive, Romney will win them: Romney 235
4. Obama will likely prevail in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (though maybe not, in which case Romney's path becomes even easier. Romney: 235
5. This leaves NH, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada. I think Obama will likely take Iowa, NH, and Nevada (though again, recent polls show that possibly changing), but I think Romney will take Virginia and Colorado. Romney: 257, Obama 263.
6. This leaves one state, Ohio. Once again, I think the election will hinge on this state - Romney is unlikely to win PA, Wisconsin, or Michigan if he can't win Ohio, so I doubt if he loses it he can make up votes elsewhere. Looking at Ohio, it's almost like a miniature version of America, which is why it usually predicts the winner. The northeastern part is similar to the NE USA, the southern part is similar to Appalachia + The South, and the western part is similar to the Midwest. The demographics are similar to the US as a whole as well. Looking at 2008, Obama did worse (and McCain better) in Ohio than in the country as a whole, it was 2.6% closer than the election. As such, in order to win Ohio Obama would have to win the popular vote by more than 2.6%, which national polls have shown to not be the case - even if Obama wins the popular vote (unlikely) it would likely be a squeaker. Based on this, plus the increase in Republican early voting and Obama's dislike from coal country of southern ohio, I really think Romney will win Ohio and the election with AT LEAST 275 electoral votes, though more if the momentum continues.
I don't doubt that Bambi is ahead, but 12 points? Meh. Not now, not even close to the reality of a few weeks ago at the height of good polling for the dems.
I will take my hat off to you, and bow every time you enter a freeper thread that I am on if your awesome analysis proves to be true. In all seriousness, if the absolute deluge you foresee comes to pass, you will forever be a tribute to that great conservative virtue of not fearing all the noise and chatter, but keeping focused on the unchanging truths.
I hope you are spot on.
My personal feeling is that Romney will win, fairly handily, but not in the utterly lopsided way you foresee.
But I hope you are right!!!!! No Dems anywhere near the White House for a long time sounds just about right to me!!!!
that was the last one back in Sept.
Any way to ping me when you have an update? Thanks a bunch!
I would also just like to add that today RCP moved PA from “leans Obama” to Toss-up! :D
Romney/Ryan will win and win big !!
Here is the way it will go.
Real Clear Politics has R/R with a solid 181 EV.
R/R will also win:
FL 29 EV
NC 15 EV
VA 13 EV
MO 10 EV
IA 6 EV
CO 9 EV
WI 10 EV
NH 4 EV
NV 6 EV
This will give R/R a total of 283 EV. Throw in OH with it’s 18 EV and you have a landslide with 301 EV !!
I do believe it is, theoretically, possible for Obama to win the popular vote (even if just by 1% or less) and lose the electoral votes. Unlikely, but possible - I don’t think it’s just like 2008, but I do think Obama would have to get at least 2% or so lead in the national vote to win Ohio, and I don’t see that happening.
ALSO, some food for thought:
Today, Romney’s RCP average of polls is Romney +0.5, 47.8 to 47.3 for Obama.
4 years ago on this exact date, it was OBAMA +7.6, 49.4 compared to only 42.8 for McCain. An 8 point swing, and a lead he never lost, staying between 7 and 8 points above McCain until election day. I don’t see that kind of switch happening now, at most they may be tied by election day, but I suspect Romney will be up in the polls (in 2008, the final RCP avg was Obama: 52 to McCain 44, so the Obamabots that think Obama will somehow pull this out while he’s being smashed in the polls just isn’t going to work out too well).
DU Dummies have been bragging about how they troll at FR.
Yes, Romney could win one of the districts.
Welcome. You’re probably going to want to change your screen name eventually. You certainly aren’t the first to use a candidate, but candidates come and go, and hopefully you’ll stick around.
....um what? I’m confused on this comment.