Romney will Win Ohio + The Election (Vanity)

[NY4Romney]

So everyone, I'm new here. Hated Obama in 2008 but wasn't crazy about McCain and knew he would lose anyway. This year I was supporting Romney more as an Anti-Obama vote until the debate - which has fired me up and actually made me as much pro-Romney as Anti-Obama (which I suspect is the case around the country). I'm also a huge statistics wonk, and I watch polls, trends, demographics, etc. Until the debate, I figured the election would be close and Obama would squeak out a win. Right now, though, I think that Obama will probably lose and here's my analysis as to why:

1. Starting with 2008, due to redistricting, if Obama won the same states it would be Obama 359 to Romney 179.

2. Give back Nebraska's district, as well as Indiana. Romney: 191

3. NC and FL are no longer that competitive, Romney will win them: Romney 235

4. Obama will likely prevail in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania (though maybe not, in which case Romney's path becomes even easier. Romney: 235

5. This leaves NH, Ohio, Virginia, Iowa, Colorado, and Nevada. I think Obama will likely take Iowa, NH, and Nevada (though again, recent polls show that possibly changing), but I think Romney will take Virginia and Colorado. Romney: 257, Obama 263.

6. This leaves one state, Ohio. Once again, I think the election will hinge on this state - Romney is unlikely to win PA, Wisconsin, or Michigan if he can't win Ohio, so I doubt if he loses it he can make up votes elsewhere. Looking at Ohio, it's almost like a miniature version of America, which is why it usually predicts the winner. The northeastern part is similar to the NE USA, the southern part is similar to Appalachia + The South, and the western part is similar to the Midwest. The demographics are similar to the US as a whole as well. Looking at 2008, Obama did worse (and McCain better) in Ohio than in the country as a whole, it was 2.6% closer than the election. As such, in order to win Ohio Obama would have to win the popular vote by more than 2.6%, which national polls have shown to not be the case - even if Obama wins the popular vote (unlikely) it would likely be a squeaker. Based on this, plus the increase in Republican early voting and Obama's dislike from coal country of southern ohio, I really think Romney will win Ohio and the election with AT LEAST 275 electoral votes, though more if the momentum continues.

[Lakeshark]

Whoa, I don't see how that's possible, Mi can't be that bad.

I don't doubt that Bambi is ahead, but 12 points? Meh. Not now, not even close to the reality of a few weeks ago at the height of good polling for the dems.

[ConservativeDude]

I will take my hat off to you, and bow every time you enter a freeper thread that I am on if your awesome analysis proves to be true. In all seriousness, if the absolute deluge you foresee comes to pass, you will forever be a tribute to that great conservative virtue of not fearing all the noise and chatter, but keeping focused on the unchanging truths.

I hope you are spot on.

My personal feeling is that Romney will win, fairly handily, but not in the utterly lopsided way you foresee.

But I hope you are right!!!!! No Dems anywhere near the White House for a long time sounds just about right to me!!!!

[Perdogg]

that was the last one back in Sept.

[angelrod]

Any way to ping me when you have an update? Thanks a bunch!

[NY4Romney]

I would also just like to add that today RCP moved PA from “leans Obama” to Toss-up! :D

[bestrongbpositive]

Romney/Ryan will win and win big !!

Here is the way it will go.

Real Clear Politics has R/R with a solid 181 EV.
R/R will also win:
FL 29 EV
NC 15 EV
VA 13 EV
MO 10 EV
IA 6 EV
CO 9 EV
WI 10 EV
NH 4 EV
NV 6 EV

This will give R/R a total of 283 EV. Throw in OH with it’s 18 EV and you have a landslide with 301 EV !!

[NY4Romney]

I do believe it is, theoretically, possible for Obama to win the popular vote (even if just by 1% or less) and lose the electoral votes. Unlikely, but possible - I don’t think it’s just like 2008, but I do think Obama would have to get at least 2% or so lead in the national vote to win Ohio, and I don’t see that happening.

ALSO, some food for thought:

Today, Romney’s RCP average of polls is Romney +0.5, 47.8 to 47.3 for Obama.

4 years ago on this exact date, it was OBAMA +7.6, 49.4 compared to only 42.8 for McCain. An 8 point swing, and a lead he never lost, staying between 7 and 8 points above McCain until election day. I don’t see that kind of switch happening now, at most they may be tied by election day, but I suspect Romney will be up in the polls (in 2008, the final RCP avg was Obama: 52 to McCain 44, so the Obamabots that think Obama will somehow pull this out while he’s being smashed in the polls just isn’t going to work out too well).

[y6162]

DU Dummies have been bragging about how they troll at FR.

[Andy'smom]

Yes, Romney could win one of the districts.

[CharlesWayneCT]

Welcome. You’re probably going to want to change your screen name eventually. You certainly aren’t the first to use a candidate, but candidates come and go, and hopefully you’ll stick around.

[NY4Romney]

....um what? I’m confused on this comment.