Skip to comments.IBD/TIPP Poll - Is it Credible?
Posted on 10/20/2012 1:32:29 PM PDT by NY4Romney
The latest IBD/TIPP Poll shows Obama up 3, 47 to 44 (though that's due to rounding, it's actually only Obama up 2.6%). Now, both sides love to discredit any poll that doesn't look good for them: look at how the left is freaking out about the "outlier" of a Gallup poll. I don't do that..I've seen many polls that look bad for Romney that I actually find believable once looking at the internals. I never discredit a poll just because I don't like it - I just call it like I see it. Having said that...
The IBD/TIPP poll is absolute sh*t.
1. First, right on top, there's the sampling: 37% democrat, 30% GOP, 32% Independent. That is definitely not going to happen and they are way oversampling dems and undersampling republicans.
2. As far as sex, race, etc - there's no way to know, as the poll doesn't give any further breakdown in terms of percent of the sample. One very telling thing, however, is at the bottom of the poll, which is point number 3.
3. Look at the very last question on the poll: The 2008 vote. According to the poll, Obama wins 83% of people that voted for him in 08, and 4% of Mccain Voters. Romney wins 92% of McCain voters and 10% of Obama voters. We have actual data we can extrapolate this from:
2008 Vote: Obama: 69,456,897 McCain: 59,934,815
So.. Obama = (0.83)69,456,897 + (0.04)59,934,815 = Obama = 57,649,224 + 2,397,362 = 60,046,616 Total
Romney = (0.10)69,456,897 + (0.92)59,934,815 Romney = 6,945,689 + 55,140,029 = 62,085,718 Total
Romney: 50.8% Obama: 49.1%
So even using their skewed poll, if corrected to reality, shows Romney up by almost 2 points. And this is just based on people who voted in 2008 - if the EXACT same people who voted in 2008 voted in 2012, Romney would win...yet we all know that more Republicans who sat home in 08 are ready to go, and lots of disappointed democrats are going to be sitting home...so probably another few points for that.
Romney's going to win this. The ONLY polls that show Obama leading anywhere, even in Ohio, are extremely generous to Obama and do not reflect reality. I'm a huge worrier and knew Obama would beat McCain - I never once thought McCain had a chance. I also thought Romney had no chance up until that first debate. Now I'm completely confident of Romney's win.
But WE MUST FIGHT TO THE END! DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE OBAMA'S MACHINE! GOTV! TELL YOUR FRIENDS! VOLUNTEER! DONATE! And if we can keep this up for just TWO MORE WEEKS, we can all laugh as MSNBC cuts their stream in November 6th and DU goes offline. Imagine Chris Matthew's crying face and GO FORWARD!
The pollsters are going all out trying to prop up their boy Barry and make this a race. I smell shades of 2010 myself.
Sure a lot of concern trolls popping up lately.
I think it is a credible pollster who is using flawed and mistaken turnout assumptions. We will find out in two weeks.
Very clever reversal of their own stupid math.
Why does IDB even associates itself, much or less lend their name, to a polling outfit like this is beyond me....same goes for the Wall Street Jourrnal? How they could ever partner up with NBC never made any since to me!!
I think it will be more fun to see who does and who does not read your whole post. lol
If you’re calling me a concern troll, perhaps you should read the post first. How’s that sound?
It’s a post showing how even Obama’s best national poll (O +3) is actually showing Romney leading.
First to admit it didn’t read the entire post!
Suppose you’re correct. Suppose, just suppose, hypothetically that you’re wrong and that the Communist from Kenya wins. What will you say then?
I personally think no poll is meaningful. Some poll questions are skewed to elicit a certain response. Sometimes the sample favors voters of one party or the other. Sometimes people answer questions by telling the pollster what they think the pollster wants to hear. And then there is that pesky margin of error.
Someone once said the only poll that counts is the one on election day. No need to get into an uproar over an unfavorable poll. And for that matter, I wouldn’t break out the champagne over a favorable poll either.
I almost quit reading after the first paragraph but quickly jumped to the last sentence. lol then I read the whole thing once I realized it wasn’t a panic post.
+7 Democrat is all you need to know about the quality of the Poll.
I also ended up reading the whole thing, just to spite myself!
It ain’t over ‘til it’s over. That’s a fact.
I agree with your analysis; but it's kinda like shooting (steel)fish in a barrel. Has TIPP ever actually been right?