Skip to comments.IBD/TIPP Poll - Is it Credible?
Posted on 10/20/2012 1:32:29 PM PDT by NY4Romney
The latest IBD/TIPP Poll shows Obama up 3, 47 to 44 (though that's due to rounding, it's actually only Obama up 2.6%). Now, both sides love to discredit any poll that doesn't look good for them: look at how the left is freaking out about the "outlier" of a Gallup poll. I don't do that..I've seen many polls that look bad for Romney that I actually find believable once looking at the internals. I never discredit a poll just because I don't like it - I just call it like I see it. Having said that...
The IBD/TIPP poll is absolute sh*t.
1. First, right on top, there's the sampling: 37% democrat, 30% GOP, 32% Independent. That is definitely not going to happen and they are way oversampling dems and undersampling republicans.
2. As far as sex, race, etc - there's no way to know, as the poll doesn't give any further breakdown in terms of percent of the sample. One very telling thing, however, is at the bottom of the poll, which is point number 3.
3. Look at the very last question on the poll: The 2008 vote. According to the poll, Obama wins 83% of people that voted for him in 08, and 4% of Mccain Voters. Romney wins 92% of McCain voters and 10% of Obama voters. We have actual data we can extrapolate this from:
2008 Vote: Obama: 69,456,897 McCain: 59,934,815
So.. Obama = (0.83)69,456,897 + (0.04)59,934,815 = Obama = 57,649,224 + 2,397,362 = 60,046,616 Total
Romney = (0.10)69,456,897 + (0.92)59,934,815 Romney = 6,945,689 + 55,140,029 = 62,085,718 Total
Romney: 50.8% Obama: 49.1%
So even using their skewed poll, if corrected to reality, shows Romney up by almost 2 points. And this is just based on people who voted in 2008 - if the EXACT same people who voted in 2008 voted in 2012, Romney would win...yet we all know that more Republicans who sat home in 08 are ready to go, and lots of disappointed democrats are going to be sitting home...so probably another few points for that.
Romney's going to win this. The ONLY polls that show Obama leading anywhere, even in Ohio, are extremely generous to Obama and do not reflect reality. I'm a huge worrier and knew Obama would beat McCain - I never once thought McCain had a chance. I also thought Romney had no chance up until that first debate. Now I'm completely confident of Romney's win.
But WE MUST FIGHT TO THE END! DO NOT UNDERESTIMATE OBAMA'S MACHINE! GOTV! TELL YOUR FRIENDS! VOLUNTEER! DONATE! And if we can keep this up for just TWO MORE WEEKS, we can all laugh as MSNBC cuts their stream in November 6th and DU goes offline. Imagine Chris Matthew's crying face and GO FORWARD!
I’m pretty sure this poll showed Romney’s support among conservatives dropping from 72% to 68% over a two day span. That was yesterday or the day before, if I recall correctly. There’s something goofy going on with this poll this year, even though in the past it’s been pretty accurate.
I smell shades of Chick-Fil-A day. Libs are going to be shocked.
I used to know a Pole who was all right!
I think that Obama is going to get 47% of the vote.....just like Romney said months ago
Then there are those Dems who when polled say they are voting party line....even though they are smart enough to say that and vote R.
It’s a Poll dance.
47% sounds right, I don’t think a bigger margin is achievable for a GOP candidate, and that itself is an outrage in face of such obvious and overwhelming failure of Obumster!
I've seen many polls that look bad for Romney that I actually find believable once looking at the internals. I never discredit a poll just because I don't like it -- I just call it like I see it. Having said that... The IBD/TIPP poll is absolute sh*t.
Any sitting President that is below 50% in the polls at this close to the election will not be re-elected. The only time I know of this happening was when Bill Clinton had Ross Perot running as a third party candidate!
That’s what it’s going to take. Anything less than a landslide and the criminals will steal it. It’s what they do. It’s all they know.
Proof this poll is shite: They have Romney and Obama running about equal among men. So that tells me this poll is likely overweighted with African Americans and/or young voters. It’s a propaganda poll pure and simple.
My guess as to what is wrong with the IBD poll is that it does not assign “leans” the way other polls do. Note that it has Obama at 46.6, which is only 0.5 higher than he is in the RCP avg. In contrast, Mitt is at 44, or 3 entire points lower than he is in RCP. If you add 46.6 and 44, you get only 90.6, leaving almost 10 points unaccounted for. In contrast, Rasmussen has only 3 points undecided and Gallup 4—IDB, therefore has more than twice as man undecided voters as Gallup and three times as many as Rasmussen.
I suspect if a person does not initially state a preference, IBD is less likely to press for which way the person is leaning than the other two. Obama’s 47 percent—as Romney said—is pretty committed. Mitt has to cement those leaners on election day.
I watch that poll daily and posted about it on another thread.
It is actually great news considering the oversampling makes it clear Romney is ACTUALLY AHEAD.
Same with Fox’s Ohio poll yesterday, a BIGGER Dem oversample than last month’s poll and yet it shows the race closer with a slim Obama lead. It is clear he is leading in that poll in reality in Ohio as well.
A LOT can change, and I do worry about Allred’s rumor since she did not outright deny the rumor just said she doesn’t talk about client meetings.
But, we are in good shape.
Now can only hope it pulls our GOP Senate/House candidates across the finish line.
As someone here said, can’t recall whom-—
It aint over until the rioters burn their neighborhoods.
A couple of hours ago I sent them an e mail asking how on earth they think their result could be even close to reality having a sample with Dems+7.
Dems+7 is the same advantage they had in 2008 (CNN Exit Poll), who can think this election is 2008 all over again?
2012 looks way closer to 2004 than 2008 and in 2004 both parties has 37% in the CNN Exit Poll.
I would prefer that Obama gets 27% of the vote....I can dream.
I’m quite amazed at the large number of people that post before reading the whole thread...
Stop calling me a troll and learn to read!!!!
Close to 10 million people have died in the US since the 2008 election (nearly all, presumably, US citizens over the age of 18) and about 16 million people who were under the minimum age to vote in 2008 are now eligible...so the election can’t be entirely people who voted the last time.
It ain’t over ‘till the lawyers milk their clients.
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