Posted on 09/05/2014 5:34:23 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Democrats are going to fight to keep their former Kansas senate candidate, Chad Taylor, off the ballot (an odd turn of events to put it mildly). This comes after Kris Kobach, Secretary of State, announced that Taylor must stay on ballot. Kobach is intensely political and is likely the most successful and outspoken voter suppression advocate in the country today. Rick Hasen says the law is not dispositive. But life's hard. Kobach's the Secretary State. He gets to make the decision, or at least he gets the first pass at it. A Court will likely have the final say over whether he gets his way.
But here's the thing: I don't think it matters that much.
Obviously both sides can and will fight very hard to get their way. Because elections can come down to a tiny number of votes. And Taylor pulling even a single percent as a phantom candidate could make the difference. But if you look at the poll numbers that drove this decision, again, I don't think this is what this will come down to.
Several recent polls going back to mid-July drove this decision. But two in particular did it. One from mid-August from PPP: Roberts 32%, Taylor 25%, Orman 23% and a late August one from SurveyUSA: Roberts 37%, Taylor 32%, Orman 20%. A Rasmussen poll from a week earlier didn't given Orman as an option. And even in that case Roberts only topped Taylor by 4 points.
Now, given that Taylor is ahead of Orman you may be asking, why isn't Orman dropping out? The answer is Kansas.
The last time Kansas elected a Democrat to the Senate was 82 years ago. And it's happened only three times since Kansas entered the Union on the eve of the Civil War. Which, remember, is over a hundred and fifty friggin' years ago!
This is a record that is even more amazing than it appears to be on first glance. Because this isn't like saying a state has been liberal or conservative for ages. The GOP is actually a radically different party today than it was 60 years ago and it's a wildly different party than it was in 1860s. Kansas is just Republican almost regardless of what the GOP happens to stand for at any given point in history.
In other words, there's a huge amount of history running against Taylor, especially in a year where turnout models favor Republicans anyway. Another big, perhaps decisive factor: Taylor has no money. Orman has a lot of money - another reason why he's clearly the best chance to knock off Roberts.
But look at those polls. Roberts is a 34 year DC incumbent and he's basically begging to be thrown out of office. He's routinely polling in the 30s! That PPP poll has him down at 32%. The problem is that the D brand means that Taylor is just not the one to do it. Orman though is running as an independent. And even though he's a former Dem and shows signs he'd likely caucus with the Dems, that may be enough. Beneath those poll numbers there's already a grouping of moderate Republicans backing Roberts. There's likely also Tea Party hostility hurting him.
But again look at the polls. How many Taylor voters you figure switch to Roberts? I think we can pretty confidently say, none. If were as simple as adding Taylor's and Orman's numbers, Roberts would already be toast. Indeed, when PPP put Orman and Roberts head to head without Taylor, Roberts stayed right down where he was at 33% and Orman shot up to 43%, a ten point margin.
As I noted earlier, the national GOP sees clearly that they've got a severe problem on their hands. They sent in one of the party's top operatives today to take over Roberts' campaign. It's clear that a substantial majority of the state electorate does not want to reelect Roberts. So what this is really going to come down to is whether the Republicans can change Orman into "Mr. Obamacrat" and nationalize the race over Senate control. That's the obvious strategy. But I think it's an approach that's either going to work or its not. This is going to rebalance as a standard R v D race or Orman is going to move into a substantial lead. And that's why I do not think the name on the ballot issue - while a hot controversy today and a significant factor - is going to be as big an issue as some seem to think.
Either you can Obamafy this race and suddenly make a majority candidate out of someone who only has the support of a third of the electorate or you can't. We don't know yet. But we'll soon find out.
A Badge of Honor!
I am glad Kobach made it into the Sec of State position. He would have been wasted a Senator, he is doing much more good here at home.
This guy is an idiot. Sixty years ago the Republicans where home to Conservatives like William Buckley and Barry Goldwater. Not exactly Leftists. They where strong believers in Civil Rights, True Civil Rights, not the morally bankrupt Affirmative Action BS. They where strong believers in limited Government.
Gee sounds like the same party!
“...the law is not dispositive.”
Well, that depends on the meaning of ‘is’...
Yeah, the Dems just need to go the Murkowski route- spend the campaign teaching their subjects to NOT vote for the Party candidate.
Murk showed it can be done.
We love Kobach here.
Roberts does have problems, almost all of them of his own making. But, this guy thinks that if you use the word, “friggin’” in an article, people will think that you are cool and embrace your flawed analysis.
Taylor will get a considerable portion of the Democrat vote because Democrats vote for Democrats. They aren’t paid to think, just to check the Democrat box. Party hacks will try to explain that the rules are different this time out, but it won’t help much.
Now that Orman is exposed as the Democrat that he is and his role in this little conspiracy is understood, he is going to lose both Independent and Republican votes. People do not like being played for fools.
As for Kobach, the people of Kansas elected him to put a stop of these sorts of election shenanigans that were so prominent in the Selbelius era. He is doing what we want him to do. You don’t like it? Tough.
There is no case law on the specific language in the statute that was applied here. That means that courts are very unlikely to proceed quickly and they can’t stop the election going forward. I would like to be in court when the judge asks the Taylor team how a telephone call from Senator McCaskill resulted in Taylor suddenly being incapacitated from serving. Perhaps she threatened to put some cajones on a stick.
Pulitzer or poofter?
I’m telling you folks the Republicans aren’t going to win the Senate and may end up losing some House seats. Conservatives are going to stay home in droves.
Or Taylor can have an accident. Democrats aren’t totally averse to that sort of thing.
um... no
Republicans are going to go to the polls in Droves (along with a lot of moderates and some Democrats) to register their displeasure with Obamacare, illegal alien amnesty, the crummy economy, and the whole world just basically falling apart.
Then add to that scared and ticked off whites who will go to the polls as a protest and reaction to the blacks rioting again.
And we have a republican landslide in the making.
ROFL
I’m not...I’m voting for Scott for Governor, Pam Bondi for AG, Adam Putnam for Sectrary of Agriculture...
I am not that excited about Roberts, but I will be voting for him in November. I want Harry Reid gone as the Majority Leader in the Senate.
Because that worked so well for the country in 2012?
Voting instructions for Triple E:
1. Cut off nose
2. Spite face
If you cannot tell the difference between Republicans (however liberal, moderate or otherwise impure) and Socialist Democrats, the primary problems are not with the Republicans, but with your inability to discriminate and your need to feel morally superior. OMG, you sound like a Democrat!
Having served as an assistant to Atty. General John Ashcroft, Kris is well-qualified to do most anything but he'd probably be best suited as Atty General.
I'd say the author is not only a Lefty but he's also in favor of voter fraud.
The alternative was better, how?
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