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It Will Never Happen (Ted Cruz nomination and/or presidency)
Talking Points Memo ^ | March 24, 2015 | Josh Marshall, editor and publisher

Posted on 03/24/2015 7:06:16 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

There are few people I do not take seriously in politics. Or to put it more specifically, there are few people I fully discount in the context of national elections. Ted Cruz is one of those people. By contrast, I think it is highly unlikely that Rand Paul can make it in the GOP primaries, let alone a national election. There are so many intra-party disputes, so many iffy stories lurking in the background for him and his father and a lot more. But there are enough unexpected and cross cutting aspects to Paul that I can't be sure. Always important, many people who don't agree with anything Paul says find him somehow appealing. Cruz is entirely different. It is hard to think of someone who has been accorded such press attention as a presidential contender while being so certain to go down to defeat. It is extremely unlikely that Cruz could ever win the GOP nomination. And as certain as one can ever be in this fallen world that he cannot win a national election.

This is for three reasons.

Starting with most obvious, Cruz would not survive first contact with the range of blue states and swing states where a Republican must compete. Some say, they didn't think he had a chance in Texas either. Well, Texas, as they say, is a whole 'nother country. Both on the issues and temperamentally Cruz embodies the caricature of Republicans which nominees studiously work to dismantle in the general election phase of the campaign. Indeed, Cruz would run so poorly in many blue "reach" states that he would probably bring down a non-trivial congressional Republicans because he is so toxic to non-right wing ideologues. He won't win a national election. Not at the top of the ticket.

Second, no one wins the presidency who does not come off as a good guy, someone you would like, to a majority of the population. The one possible exception is Richard Nixon, though a significant part of his 1968 success was combating this problem. Lots of people hated Clinton and Bush and now Obama too. But most people liked them. Likable guys, not, in a word, assholes. People who come off like assholes don't get elected president. From college and law school to the Senate and seemingly everywhere in between, Cruz has found small groups of admirers while convincing the vast majority of people as a consummate asshole.

This isn't just me sounding off; it's not trash talk. This is a really basic dynamic of presidential elections. There were plenty of Democrats who thought W was an entitled jerk. Most of the population did not feel that way. Many republicans felt Clinton was a slippery charlatan. But even many of them found it difficult to resist his charm. Indeed, that was one of the reasons they hated him.

Most people, including most Republicans, find Ted Cruz grating, divisive and arrogant. That makes it extremely hard to make the kind of emotive connection with voters who come to elections without strong ideological moorings. Cruz's great strength, albeit with a small but intensely devoted slice of the national conservative electorate, is that he has taken the unbridled self-assertion and norm-breaking which make him intolerable to many up close and cast them as the ultimate expression of the right-wing id. Also another thing, people don't like assholes.

Third, establishment Republicans: Ted Cruz does not play ball. He is arrogant. He causes lots of damage for Republicans who either have moderate views or are in the business of politics. Ted is not good for business in either the good or bad senses of the term - whether that's people who simply want to govern or those most focused on delivering goods for constituents (or getting people who are not named Ted Cruz elected). Ted will never be elected president. And I think it is very, very unlikely he will get the GOP nomination. The most likely outcome is that he will pull well with far right Republicans and pull the field to the right.

To summarize, pass the popcorn.


TOPICS: Campaign News; Issues; Parties; State and Local
KEYWORDS: 2016; cds; cruz; randpaul; tedcruz
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Substitute Cruz for Reagan and this column could've been written around 1979.

1 posted on 03/24/2015 7:06:16 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The long knives are out.


2 posted on 03/24/2015 7:08:47 PM PDT by fatnotlazy
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
This guy doesn't have a clue.

Apparently there are many who don't.

3 posted on 03/24/2015 7:09:00 PM PDT by skeeter
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

This guy is called a “liberal’ on Google search. Do you know how far left somebody has to be to earn the term “liberal” among leftists?


4 posted on 03/24/2015 7:10:55 PM PDT by Luke21
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
He won't win a national election. Not at the top of the ticket.

The GOPe and Rinos said the same thing about Reagan.

5 posted on 03/24/2015 7:11:49 PM PDT by FatherofFive (Islam is evil and must be eradicated)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

CDS


6 posted on 03/24/2015 7:12:46 PM PDT by Berlin_Freeper (Ted Cruz 2016!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Ted is not good for business in either the good or bad senses of the term - whether that's people who simply want to govern or those most focused on delivering goods for constituents

"Delivering the goods" is not good for America.

Corrine Brown in Florida has billboards during her election - "Corrine delivers!"

7 posted on 03/24/2015 7:14:55 PM PDT by FatherofFive (Islam is evil and must be eradicated)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“Most people, including most Republicans, find Ted Cruz grating, divisive and arrogant.”

Groupthink is strong with this one. Hmmmm?


8 posted on 03/24/2015 7:16:13 PM PDT by Eddie01 (Liberals lie about everything all the time.)
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To: fatnotlazy

More like the little bread/butter knives are coming out.


9 posted on 03/24/2015 7:16:32 PM PDT by txhurl
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

“Cruz has found small groups of admirers while convincing the vast majority of people as a consummate asshole.”

What?

This author should learn how to write coherently.

Illiteracy abounds.


10 posted on 03/24/2015 7:16:42 PM PDT by ifinnegan
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Comment #11 Removed by Moderator

To: 2ndDivisionVet
Wow!
That White House (racist name!) basement is working overtime these days.
This must be the tenth time an almost identical article has been posted by almost certainly a Soros-funded web site.

Don't these morons know that overdoing even a good concept eventually invites ridicule?

The only other possibility is the stupid existing GOP leadership trying to cull the pool of conservative candidates.
But as stupid as they may be, that is too far out to take seriously.

12 posted on 03/24/2015 7:20:19 PM PDT by publius911 (If you like Obamacare, You'll LOVE ObamaWeb.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I think Ted has a long hard road ahead of him - the Lamestream Media will gouge him at every opportunity - just like they did with Reagan.

The Left in this country demolishes every good man or woman who speaks for the Right - Bork and Thomas come to mind immediately.

Ted has pushed himself out into the fray and I hope he can run the gauntlet through to victory.

God Bless you, Ted Cruz! God Bless America!


"Hige sceal þe heardra, heorte þe cenre / mod sceal þe mare, þe ure mægen lytlað."
"Thought must be the harder, heart be the keener, mind must be the greater, as our might lessens."

13 posted on 03/24/2015 7:20:19 PM PDT by ConorMacNessa (HM/2 USN, 3/5 Marines RVN 1969 - <center> <table backSt. Michael the Archangel, defend us in Battle!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Substitute Cruz for Reagan and this column could've been written around 1979

True.

I like the part where he says most people like Bammy, but Cruz is an asshole. LOL.

Cruz's biggest enemy is not the Dems in the blue states, it's the establishment GOP in the ostensibly red states. Liberal Pubbies will burn this country to the ground before they allow (what they perceive to be) another Reagan like conservative get the nomination and win the general. The people working the hardest now to derail Cruz are the GOPe. I wouldn't be at all surprised to learn that they are hunting for and funneling dirt on Cruz to the Dems behind the scenes.

14 posted on 03/24/2015 7:20:41 PM PDT by ChildOfThe60s (If you can remember the 60s, you weren't really there....)
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To: ifinnegan

Yes, but he can use a swear word. So that makes everything ok. /s


15 posted on 03/24/2015 7:20:47 PM PDT by debrawiest (Because a sinless Savior died, my sinful soul is counted free.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Yo Josh. Click your heals together and repeat....
There's no place like home
There's no place like home
There's no place like home...
16 posted on 03/24/2015 7:22:51 PM PDT by gov_bean_ counter (Romans 1:22 Professing themselves to be wise, they became fools)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Cruz has drawn much venom from the lips of liberals from both the republican and democrat party! The establishment must be very very afraid of him?????


17 posted on 03/24/2015 7:24:05 PM PDT by eeriegeno (<p>)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

After reading that, I am going to tedcruz.org and make a donation.


18 posted on 03/24/2015 7:30:17 PM PDT by School of Rational Thought
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

We should start keeping track...taking names.


19 posted on 03/24/2015 7:30:47 PM PDT by ziravan (Choose Sides.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Since Ted Cruz has announced his intention to run for president it is exceedingly clear those who are on the side of wrong are terrified.


20 posted on 03/24/2015 7:31:02 PM PDT by A message
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