Posted on 02/22/2016 11:15:28 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Sounds like a Marvel Team-Up, and perhaps as unrealistic -- at least for the moment. Larry Sabato, Kyle Kondik, and Geoffrey Skelley and his team express their amazement over Donald Trump's sustained dominance in a crowded field, but believe that the inevitable consolidation will expose a cap for Trump's support in Republican primaries. If the GOP wants to accelerate that process, they argue, then they need to get Marco Rubio and John Kasich to partner up on a Florida-Ohio GOP ticket, starting now (via Peter Schorsch):
Now that Bush is out, Rubio might want to consider a daring gambit -- openly offering Kasich the vice presidential slot in exchange for the Ohio governor's support. (Ronald Reagan did something similar much later in his 1976 campaign, right before the Republican convention, and while it didn't work out, Reagan shook up conventional wisdom. It is a tactic worth considering.) If Rubio can somehow push Kasich out after Bush's exit, it seems reasonable to think that the lion's share of their supporters would go to him, and in a three-way race, that could be enough for Rubio to start getting the victories he has failed to secure so far. However, Kasich seems inclined to continue to run, and the Republican power brokers who favor a Rubio-Kasich ticket probably won't take the risks necessary to make this happen.
Let's make no mistake: Trump, amazingly, is in a commanding position to become the Republican presidential nominee. The fact that he won about the same share of the vote in New Hampshire and South Carolina -- two wildly different states -- shows the broad appeal of his campaign among a significant portion of the Republican electorate. As we noted in the Crystal Ball on Thursday, we're rapidly approaching a critical point in the Republican primary process: After Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina, and Ohio vote on March 15, nearly 60% of the Republican delegates will have been won. If someone is going to beat Trump, Rubio probably has the best shot, but the hour is growing late for all of the non-Trump candidates.
Why not Ted Cruz? After all, Cruz has actually won a state (Iowa), which Rubio has not. The Crystal Ball team see Cruz' disappointing third-place finish in South Carolina while running hard on evangelical identity as a harbinger of disappointment:
Trends from Iowa and New Hampshire manifested themselves once again in South Carolina. Trump did better among voters with lower education levels, while Rubio did better among the more educated. Cruz did well with the most conservative voters, but he doesn't show much appeal outside of the hard-liners. To have a shot, Cruz must do well in the most religious and conservative states. Unquestionably, South Carolina is one of them, yet Cruz didn't get a single delegate. Cruz is well-funded and has some theoretically promising states coming up on Super Tuesday -- like his home state of Texas -- but his hopes of winning the nomination seem to be dwindling, at least at the moment.
The only way this works is if the race has truly gotten down to either Trump or Rubio. House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy made a case for that scenario on Morning Joe earlier today:
House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) on Monday suggested that the Republican presidential race is now down to Donald Trump and Marco Rubio, leaving out Ted Cruz.
"I see it more as Trump-Rubio," McCarthy said during an interview on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" as the hosts discussed pundits who ruled out candidates like Ohio Gov. John Kasich.
"Cruz's whole strategy of winning - he wasn't planning on Trump - and when you look going through the evangelical vote and others, he just lost that," McCarthy added.
That argument is hard to credit, though, mainly because of the scoreboard. Rubio has 3rd, 5th, and 2nd place finishes; Cruz has a win and a pair of 3rd places; Kasich has a 2nd-place finish in New Hampshire. On a money and organization basis, Cruz and Rubio do better than Trump, while Kasich may be all but tapped out. One can make a case for a three-man race -- in fact, that's almost certainly reality now -- but not a two-man race, unless either Cruz or Rubio drop out. And since they both see each other as the obvious beneficiary of such a suspension, neither has any incentive to go first.
Would the Rubio-Kasich Marvel team-up work? Sabato's team uses Reagan's bid in 1976 as a favorable precedent, but let's not forget that it didn't work for Reagan. Still, a Florida-Ohio ticket would be a conventional-wisdom dream in the general election, especially with a young and charismatic presidential nominee at the top and a two-term governor and former budget hawk as running mate. It would make Republicans instantly more credible in two states they need to win in November, and without which Democrats maintain their White House lease. (For more on the importance of Florida and Ohio, and how Republicans can win both, watch for my book GOING RED.)
In this cycle, conventional wisdom hasn't played very well in the primaries, even if it's likely to find more connection in the general election. The Rubio-Kasich combination might consolidate the moderates and anti-Trump forces in the party behind Rubio, but it would also perhaps shift the "very conservative" vote to Cruz. Could that drain support from Trump? Possibly, but the result would be to make a brokered convention more likely -- and perhaps put that Rubio-Kasich combination on the ticket as a result. That seems to be the most optimistic outcome for those looking to preclude Trump's march to the nomination.
Behold the man!
And now you defend hillarhoids against those who intentionally misspell her name! Wowzers.
It's not about him, it's not about Cruz, it's not about Trump. It's about saving our country from disaster, which is what a Trump presidency would be.
Please point out where I did any such thing.
Don't know if he'll be able to save the country from all Obaama has done, with both parties, *and* the press, against him 24x7.
So you are the one guy voting for Rubio in the FR caucus?
I think both men are very smart.
I actually disagree - I honestly believe Trump is something of an imbecile, except for his talent for self-promotion. Have you seen all the times he's stopped in a speech when he's used a very mundane word and asked if the audience knew the word? "Shrill" is an example. He has the vocabulary of a seven-year-old.
I know that Cruz is brilliant and that he's likely one of our nation's best legal scholars and even Alan Dershowitz shares that opinion.
Agreed. I initially supported Cruz for this reason, and would still love to see him as the nominee, but I no longer think he has a chance (I could be wrong).
BUT, a POTUS must possess and exercise superb judgment, of people and of situations. Cruz fails miserably in this department.
This is where you really lose me - I think Trump has, by far, the worse judgment of any candidate to run on the Republican side in my lifetime; I'm not even sure his judgment is better than Hillary's (and lest anyone think I'm a closeted Hillary supporter, I think she should be in prison).
BUT, a POTUS must possess and exercise superb judgment, of people and of situations. Cruz fails miserably in this department.
Just yesterday, he finally got around to "asking for the resignation" of that horrid man who's caused him so much trouble (Rick Tyler) and yet, he continues to permit Glenn Beck to rant and rave, as though Beck is actually helping and NOT harming him. I fear that Cruz won't be able or won't want to dump Beck from campaigning with him in Texas!
These are valid points about Cruz. But like every other argument for Trump that I hear, it's all about how bad everyone else is, and ignores Trump's attributes completely. Yes, Cruz is flawed. So is Rubio. But am I to just assume, without supporting evidence, that Trump is somehow less flawed than them? Trump, who is on his third marriage and driven his businesses into four bankruptcies? Trump, who would be wealthier today than he is if he had just invested his inheritance into S&P 500 index funds? Trump, who brags in his autobiography about sleeping with a wide assortment of married women? That's the Donald Trump whose "judgment" is superior to Cruz, who is guilty of hiring a bad communications director and letting Glenn Beck talk too much?
Trump, who said four days ago that he "likes" the Obamacare mandate, who supports (even now) government-funded universal healthcare? Trump, who said four days ago that Planned Parenthood does wonderful things and should continue to get government funding?
These are not years-old heresies by Trump (although there are an abundance of those). These are current things Trump has said within the past week.
Beyond that, when asked if Trump will stick to the things he's saying in his campaign (i.e. "we're gonna build the wall"), he says he's very able to change very quickly, and some things he just has to say because he's in a primary.
Please, please explain to me how distaste with Cruz leads to supporting *that*.
Haha I haven't voted in it. Until a week ago I would have voted for Cruz.
So now opposing the Obamacare mandate, opposing government-funded universal health care, opposing Planned Parenthood funding, opposing imminent domain for private developers, opposing tax increases, and opposing unrepentant adulterers makes one a member of the GOP-e? And supporting those things makes you what? A "conservative"? Not by any definition I recognize.
Don't know if he'll be able to save the country from all Obaama has done, with both parties, *and* the press, against him 24x7.
He'll be worse, but with a Republican label so opposing him will be more complicated.
Your replies merely feed the Richard cranium.
Anyone who thinks the Rube would make a great president has not just a loose screw, but a whole hardware store of them.
I think Rubio gets one vote on the caucus. If its not you, it means there are 2 Rubio supporters in FR.
So you think all your earnest posting is going to make it what? 3? 4?
How many will forget Gang of Eight?
How many will overlook his robotic repetitions?
How many will feel comfortable with his dripping sweat when the questions get a little tough?
How many look forward to him actually winning one of these contests, even one?
And where is that? Where is his first win going to be?
So you think all your earnest posting is going to make it what? 3? 4?
I'm not here to campaign. I'm just hoping to talk a bit of sanity back into FR. And yes, it'll probably fail. Congratulations.
How many will forget Gang of Eight?
They forgot "Planned Parenthood does wonderful things" in about 30 seconds. They forgot "I like the [Obamacare] mandate" just as fast.
How many will overlook his robotic repetitions?
Are the repetitions worse than Trump insulting American prisoners of war?
How many will feel comfortable with his dripping sweat when the questions get a little tough?
Sweating is clearly no worse, and no more serious, than Trump's ridiculous hair or tiny, stubby fingers.
How many look forward to him actually winning one of these contests, even one?
Ah, yes, the appeal to polling. Vote for Trump because he's fooled everyone else. Pass.
And where is that? Where is his first win going to be?
I don't know, although he does lead polling in a few states currently. I just know that I cannot support Trump, and I believe he is fooling a great many people.
Well I see Trump is not fooling you. You are being fooled by someone much closer to home.
You say you quit Cruz because he cant win and when I mention Rubio has NEVER won and ask WHERE his first win will be, you accuse me of falling back on polling.
So who is fooling you? Could it be you, fooling yourself? Telling yourself you are so much smarter than the rest of us when, guess what?
Hint: you are not.
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